| 1. |
- Pantazis, N, et al.
(author)
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Determining the likely place of HIV acquisition for migrants in Europe combining subject-specific information and biomarkers data
- 2019
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In: Statistical methods in medical research. - : SAGE Publications. - 1477-0334 .- 0962-2802. ; 28:7, s. 1979-1997
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- In most HIV-positive individuals, infection time is only known to lie between the time an individual started being at risk for HIV and diagnosis time. However, a more accurate estimate of infection time is very important in certain cases. For example, one of the objectives of the Advancing Migrant Access to Health Services in Europe (aMASE) study was to determine if HIV-positive migrants, diagnosed in Europe, were infected pre- or post-migration. We propose a method to derive subject-specific estimates of unknown infection times using information from HIV biomarkers’ measurements, demographic, clinical, and behavioral data. We assume that CD4 cell count (CD4) and HIV-RNA viral load trends after HIV infection follow a bivariate linear mixed model. Using post-diagnosis CD4 and viral load measurements and applying the Bayes’ rule, we derived the posterior distribution of the HIV infection time, whereas the prior distribution was informed by AIDS status at diagnosis and behavioral data. Parameters of the CD4–viral load and time-to-AIDS models were estimated using data from a large study of individuals with known HIV infection times (CASCADE). Simulations showed substantial predictive ability (e.g. 84% of the infections were correctly classified as pre- or post-migration). Application to the aMASE study ( n = 2009) showed that 47% of African migrants and 67% to 72% of migrants from other regions were most likely infected post-migration. Applying a Bayesian method based on bivariate modeling of CD4 and viral load, and subject-specific information, we found that the majority of HIV-positive migrants in aMASE were most likely infected after their migration to Europe.
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| 2. |
- Wretenberg, J, et al.
(author)
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Population trends of farmland birds in Sweden and England: similar trends but different patterns of agricultural intensification
- 2006
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In: Journal of Applied Ecology. - : Wiley. - 1365-2664 .- 0021-8901. ; 43:6, s. 1110-1120
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Studies, mainly from the UK, show that many farmland birds have declined as a result of recent agricultural intensification. We tested this idea by analysing farmland bird population trends in Sweden, a country displaying less dramatic agricultural changes and less intensive agriculture. Specifically we investigated whether (i) farmland specialists have declined more than generalists, (ii) population declines in Sweden are less marked than in England and (iii) Swedish population trends are associated with changes in the amount of autumn-sown crops, and inputs of pesticides and fertilizers. Data on population trends for 21 farmland bird species collected from the Swedish Breeding Bird Survey 1976-2001 were analysed in relation to agricultural changes in Sweden. Fifteen (71%) farmland bird species declined significantly in number (P < 0.05) over the 26 years. Farmland specialists displayed a significantly stronger average decline (55%) as a group than farmland generalists (7%). For seven species the declines were significantly steeper between 1976 and 1988 than between 1988 and 2001. Farmland bird populations have declined at least as much in Sweden as in England. Several specialist species displayed similar temporal patterns in population change in both countries. The area of autumn-sown crops has remained stable in Sweden, whereas use of pesticides and fertilizers has declined. There are no clear associations between these factors and observed farmland bird population declines. The similarities in bird population trends in Sweden and England, despite large differences in patterns of agricultural change in Sweden and England, may be explained by: (i) common wintering grounds, (ii) similar negative effects of agricultural intensification (England) and intensification/abandonment (Sweden) and (iii) a simultaneous loss of landscape heterogeneity. Synthesis and applications. Farmland birds in Sweden have declined by at least as much as in England, despite clear differences between the two countries in the degree of agricultural intensification over the last 30 years. We suggest that the marked declines in Swedish populations are caused by (i) the dual negative effects of intensification and abandonment of farmland at breeding grounds, and (ii) Swedish populations partly sharing wintering grounds with English populations. We conclude that agri-environmental schemes need to be flexible enough to address the negative effects both of intensification and the abandonment of farming. In addition, our results emphasize that farmland bird conservation is an issue without country borders.
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| 3. |
- Evengard, B., et al.
(author)
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Healthy ecosystems for human and animal health : Science diplomacy for responsible development in the Arctic The Nordic Centre of Excellence, Clinf.org (Climate-change effects on the epidemiology of infectious diseases and the impacts on Northern societies)
- 2021
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In: Polar Record. - : Cambridge University Press (CUP). - 0032-2474 .- 1475-3057. ; 57
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Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Climate warming is occurring most rapidly in the Arctic, which is both a sentinel and a driver of further global change. Ecosystems and human societies are already affected by warming. Permafrost thaws and species are on the move, bringing pathogens and vectors to virgin areas. During a five-year project, the CLINF - a Nordic Center of Excellence, funded by the Nordic Council of Ministers, has worked with the One Health concept, integrating environmental data with human and animal disease data in predictive models and creating maps of dynamic processes affecting the spread of infectious diseases. It is shown that tularemia outbreaks can be predicted even at a regional level with a manageable level of uncertainty. To decrease uncertainty, rapid development of new and harmonised technologies and databases is needed from currently highly heterogeneous data sources. A major source of uncertainty for the future of contaminants and infectious diseases in the Arctic, however, is associated with which paths the majority of the globe chooses to follow in the future. Diplomacy is one of the most powerful tools Arctic nations have to influence these choices of other nations, supported by Arctic science and One Health approaches that recognise the interconnection between people, animals, plants and their shared environment at the local, regional, national and global levels as essential for achieving a sustainable development for both the Arctic and the globe.
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| 4. |
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| 5. |
- Thierfelder, T
(author)
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Empirica/statisttcal modeling of water quality in dimictic glacial/boreal lakes
- 1999
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In: JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY. - : ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV. - 0022-1694. ; 220:3-4, s. 186-208
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Journal article (other academic/artistic)abstract
- In an empirical/statistical approach to the interaction between watershed characteristics and lake water quality, the inter-lake variance of 87 chemically monitored dimictic glacial/boreal lakes is correlated to the distributed properties of catchment des
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| 6. |
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| 7. |
- Thierfelder, T
(author)
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The morphology of landscape elements as predictors of water quality in glacial/boreal lakes
- 1998
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In: JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY. - : ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV. - 0022-1694. ; 207:3-4, s. 189-203
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Journal article (other academic/artistic)abstract
- In a statistical approach to the study of watershed-lake water quality interaction, information about geology, land cover and soils was digitized in the drainage area of 87 chemically monitored lakes. With standard 1:50000 scale maps as the source of info
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| 8. |
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