| 1. |
- Arndt, D. S., et al.
(author)
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STATE OF THE CLIMATE IN 2017
- 2018
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In: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - : American Meteorological Society. - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 99:8, s. S1-S310
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Research review (peer-reviewed)
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| 2. |
- Forouzanfar, Mohammad H, et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.
- 2015
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In: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 386:10010, s. 2287-2323
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution.METHODS: Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol.FINDINGS: All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa.INTERPRETATION: Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 3. |
- Thomson, Steven, et al.
(author)
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The impact of diversity of ownership scale on social, economic and environmental outcomes : Exploration and case studies CR/2014/19
- 2016
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Reports (other academic/artistic)abstract
- This research report was commissioned by the Scottish Government to offer some insights into the local impacts of differing scales of rural land ownership in Scotland on social, economic and environmental outcomes.The study considered three case study pairs of parishes, each comprising a parish dominated by one or more large land owners and a nearby comparator parish that had historically been dominated by one or more large land owners but is no longer, due to ownership fragmentation at some point.The findings were intended to inform both the on-going development of Scotland's land reform policy and deliberations over the Land Reform (Scotland) Bill at the time of publication.
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| 4. |
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| 5. |
- Ben-Avraham, Dan, et al.
(author)
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The complex genetics of gait speed : Genome-wide meta-analysis approach
- 2017
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In: Aging. - : Impact Journals, LLC. - 1945-4589. ; 9:1, s. 209-246
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Emerging evidence suggests that the basis for variation in late-life mobility is attributable, in part, to genetic factors, which may become increasingly important with age. Our objective was to systematically assess the contribution of genetic variation to gait speed in older individuals. We conducted a meta-analysis of gait speed GWASs in 31,478 older adults from 17 cohorts of the CHARGE consortium, and validated our results in 2,588 older adults from 4 independent studies. We followed our initial discoveries with network and eQTL analysis of candidate signals in tissues. The meta-analysis resulted in a list of 536 suggestive genome wide significant SNPs in or near 69 genes. Further interrogation with Pathway Analysis placed gait speed as a polygenic complex trait in five major networks. Subsequent eQTL analysis revealed several SNPs significantly associated with the expression of PRSS16, WDSUB1 and PTPRT, which in addition to the meta-analysis and pathway suggested that genetic effects on gait speed may occur through synaptic function and neuronal development pathways. No genome-wide significant signals for gait speed were identified from this moderately large sample of older adults, suggesting that more refined physical function phenotypes will be needed to identify the genetic basis of gait speed in aging.
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| 6. |
- Clark, Andrew G., et al.
(author)
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Evolution of genes and genomes on the Drosophila phylogeny
- 2007
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In: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 450:7167, s. 203-218
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Comparative analysis of multiple genomes in a phylogenetic framework dramatically improves the precision and sensitivity of evolutionary inference, producing more robust results than single-genome analyses can provide. The genomes of 12 Drosophila species, ten of which are presented here for the first time (sechellia, simulans, yakuba, erecta, ananassae, persimilis, willistoni, mojavensis, virilis and grimshawi), illustrate how rates and patterns of sequence divergence across taxa can illuminate evolutionary processes on a genomic scale. These genome sequences augment the formidable genetic tools that have made Drosophila melanogaster a pre-eminent model for animal genetics, and will further catalyse fundamental research on mechanisms of development, cell biology, genetics, disease, neurobiology, behaviour, physiology and evolution. Despite remarkable similarities among these Drosophila species, we identified many putatively non-neutral changes in protein-coding genes, non-coding RNA genes, and cis-regulatory regions. These may prove to underlie differences in the ecology and behaviour of these diverse species.
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| 7. |
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| 8. |
- Glass, Jayne, et al.
(author)
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The effects associated with concentrated and large-scale land ownership in Scotland : a research review
- 2019
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Reports (other academic/artistic)abstract
- This research review accompanies the ‘Investigation into the Issues Associated with Large-Scale and Concentrated Landownership in Scotland’, published by the Scottish Land Commission in 2019. The review provides an additional evidence base for the Scottish Land Commission to assist the formulation of recommendations relating to concentrated and large-scale land ownership in Scotland.
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| 9. |
- Heid, Iris M, et al.
(author)
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Meta-analysis identifies 13 new loci associated with waist-hip ratio and reveals sexual dimorphism in the genetic basis of fat distribution
- 2010
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In: Nature Genetics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1061-4036 .- 1546-1718. ; 42:11, s. 949-960
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Waist-hip ratio (WHR) is a measure of body fat distribution and a predictor of metabolic consequences independent of overall adiposity. WHR is heritable, but few genetic variants influencing this trait have been identified. We conducted a meta-analysis of 32 genome-wide association studies for WHR adjusted for body mass index (comprising up to 77,167 participants), following up 16 loci in an additional 29 studies (comprising up to 113,636 subjects). We identified 13 new loci in or near RSPO3, VEGFA, TBX15-WARS2, NFE2L3, GRB14, DNM3-PIGC, ITPR2-SSPN, LY86, HOXC13, ADAMTS9, ZNRF3-KREMEN1, NISCH-STAB1 and CPEB4 (P = 1.9 × 10⁻⁹ to P = 1.8 × 10⁻⁴⁰) and the known signal at LYPLAL1. Seven of these loci exhibited marked sexual dimorphism, all with a stronger effect on WHR in women than men (P for sex difference = 1.9 × 10⁻³ to P = 1.2 × 10⁻¹³). These findings provide evidence for multiple loci that modulate body fat distribution independent of overall adiposity and reveal strong gene-by-sex interactions.
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| 10. |
- Holland, John, et al.
(author)
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Meeting the challenge of wild deer research to support delivery of sustainable deer management in Scotland
- 2017
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Reports (other academic/artistic)abstract
- The aim of this project was to analyse existing wild deer research and identify specific research and evidence gaps which need to be addressed in order to meet the challenges for each of the five priorities outlined in Scotland’s Wild Deer - A National Approach (WDNA).The project was developed to facilitate more effective exchange of knowledge and provide a fuller understanding of the issues involved in deer management and therefore help deliver targeted, informed and sustainable deer management in Scotland. This report complements the recently published Deer Management in Scotland: Report to the Scottish Government from Scottish Natural Heritage 2016.Gaps in the existing knowledge-base were identified by gathering the views of stakeholders at a series of workshops, through an online survey of researchers and policy makers, and through a review of published and un-published research material. Workshops were run across Scotland, including four regional stakeholder workshops, one workshop for trainers,and one for researchers/policy makers. The uptake of research by stakeholders was also examined through the use of an on-line survey of researchers and policy makers. The information gained from the workshops, online survey and literature review were analysed to determine the key research and knowledge transfer gaps associated with each of the five WDNA priorities.As part of the project a web-based deer research resource was created that provides an online database of deer research relevant to the five WDNA priorities (www.deerscotland.info).
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| 11. |
- Holliday, Kate L., et al.
(author)
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The ESR1 (6q25) Locus Is Associated with Calcaneal Ultrasound Parameters and Radial Volumetric Bone Mineral Density in European Men
- 2011
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In: PLoS ONE. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203. ; 6:7
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Purpose: Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified 6q25, which incorporates the oestrogen receptor alpha gene (ESR1), as a quantitative trait locus for areal bone mineral density (BMDa) of the hip and lumbar spine. The aim of this study was to determine the influence of this locus on other bone health outcomes; calcaneal ultrasound (QUS) parameters, radial peripheral quantitative computed tomography (pQCT) parameters and markers of bone turnover in a population sample of European men. Methods: Eight single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) in the 6q25 locus were genotyped in men aged 40-79 years from 7 European countries, participating in the European Male Ageing Study (EMAS). The associations between SNPs and measured bone parameters were tested under an additive genetic model adjusting for centre using linear regression. Results: 2468 men, mean (SD) aged 59.9 (11.1) years had QUS measurements performed and bone turnover marker levels measured. A subset of 628 men had DXA and pQCT measurements. Multiple independent SNPs showed significant associations with BMD using all three measurement techniques. Most notably, rs1999805 was associated with a 0.10 SD (95%CI 0.05, 0.16; p = 0.0001) lower estimated BMD at the calcaneus, a 0.14 SD (95%CI 0.05, 0.24; p = 0.004) lower total hip BMDa, a 0.12 SD (95%CI 0.02, 0.23; p = 0.026) lower lumbar spine BMDa and a 0.18 SD (95%CI 0.06, 0.29; p = 0.003) lower trabecular BMD at the distal radius for each copy of the minor allele. There was no association with serum levels of bone turnover markers and a single SNP which was associated with cortical density was also associated with cortical BMC and thickness. Conclusions: Our data replicate previous associations found between SNPs in the 6q25 locus and BMDa at the hip and extend these data to include associations with calcaneal ultrasound parameters and radial volumetric BMD.
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| 12. |
- Huhtaniemi, Ilpo T, et al.
(author)
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Effect of Polymorphisms in Selected Genes Involved in Pituitary-Testicular Function on Reproductive Hormones and Phenotype in Aging Men.
- 2010
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In: The Journal of clinical endocrinology and metabolism. - : The Endocrine Society. - 1945-7197 .- 0021-972X. ; 95, s. 1898-1908
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Context: Polymorphisms in genes involved in regulation, biosynthesis, metabolism, and actions of testicular sex hormones may influence hormone balance and phenotype of aging men. Objective: We investigated the relationships between polymorphisms in genes related to pituitary-testicular endocrine function and health status. Design and Setting: Using cross-sectional baseline data, we conducted a multinational prospective cohort observational study consisting of a population survey of community-dwelling men. Participants: A total of 2748 men, aged 40-79 (mean +/- SD, 60.2 + 11.2) yr, were randomly recruited from eight European centers. Forty-three polymorphisms were genotyped in the following genes: androgen receptor (AR), estrogen receptor-alpha and -beta (ESR1 and ESR2), steroid 5alpha-reductase type II (SRD5A2), 17alpha-hydroxylase/17,20-lyase (CYP17A1), aromatase (CYP19A1), sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG), LH beta-subunit (LHB), and LH receptor (LHCGR). Main Outcome Measures: We measured the associations between gene polymorphisms and endocrine, metabolic, and phenotypic parameters related to aging and sex hormone action. Results: Several polymorphisms in SHBG, ESR2, AR, CYP19A1, and LHB were significantly associated with circulating levels of SHBG, LH, total, free, and bioavailable testosterone and estradiol, the LH x testosterone product, and indices of insulin sensitivity. Apart from several previously reported associations between genes affecting estrogen levels and heel ultrasound parameters, no associations existed between polymorphisms and nonhormonal variables (anthropometry, blood lipids, blood pressure, hemoglobin, prostate symptoms, prostate-specific antigen, sexual dysfunction, cognition). Conclusion: In aging men, polymorphisms in genes related to the pituitary-testicular endocrine function significantly influence circulating LH, testosterone, and estradiol levels, but the downstream effects may be too small to influence secondary phenotypic parameters.
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| 13. |
- Huhtaniemi, Ilpo T, et al.
(author)
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Increased Estrogen Rather Than Decreased Androgen Action Is Associated with Longer Androgen Receptor CAG Repeats.
- 2009
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In: Journal of Clinical Endocrinology and Metabolism. - : The Endocrine Society. - 1945-7197 .- 0021-972X. ; 94, s. 277-284
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Context: The individual variability in the waning androgenic-anabolic functions of aging men may be influenced by the CAG repeat polymorphism in exon 1 of the androgen receptor (AR), affecting androgen sensitivity. However, findings on its phenotypic effects are inconclusive. Objective: To investigate the relationships between health status, various reproductive hormones and the AR CAG repeat length. Design: A multi-national prospective cohort observational study - cross-sectional baseline data. Setting: Population survey of community-dwelling men. Participants: Men (40-79-yr-old; n=3,369) randomly recruited from centers in eight European countries; CAG repeat analysis was performed in 2,878 men. Main outcome measures: The correlations of the CAG repeat length with selected endocrine, metabolic and phenotypic parameters related to aging and sex hormone action. Results: Only minor differences were found in CAG repeat lengths between the eight European countries. They showed significant positive association with total, free and bioavailable levels of testosterone (T) and estradiol (E2). FSH but not LH correlated inversely with CAG repeat length. Significant associations were found with bone ultrasound parameters at the calcaneus. Negative correlation was found with triglycerides, but not with other blood lipids, or with anthropometry, blood pressure, hemoglobin, insulin sensitivity, or sexual and prostatic functions. Conclusions: The AR CAG repeat length correlates significantly with serum T and E2 of aging men. Weaker transcriptional activity of the AR with longer CAG-encoded polyglutamine repeats appears to be totally or near-totally compensated for by higher T levels. The residual phenotypic correlations may reflect differences in estrogen levels/actions following aromatization of the higher T levels.
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| 14. |
- Jones, Gregory T., et al.
(author)
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Meta-Analysis of Genome-Wide Association Studies for Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Identifies Four New Disease-Specific Risk Loci
- 2017
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In: Circulation Research. - 0009-7330 .- 1524-4571. ; 120:2, s. 341-
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Rationale: Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) is a complex disease with both genetic and environmental risk factors. Together, 6 previously identified risk loci only explain a small proportion of the heritability of AAA. Objective: To identify additional AAA risk loci using data from all available genome-wide association studies. Methods and Results: Through a meta-analysis of 6 genome-wide association study data sets and a validation study totaling 10 204 cases and 107 766 controls, we identified 4 new AAA risk loci: 1q32.3 (SMYD2), 13q12.11 (LINC00540), 20q13.12 (near PCIF1/MMP9/ZNF335), and 21q22.2 (ERG). In various database searches, we observed no new associations between the lead AAA single nucleotide polymorphisms and coronary artery disease, blood pressure, lipids, or diabetes mellitus. Network analyses identified ERG, IL6R, and LDLR as modifiers of MMP9, with a direct interaction between ERG and MMP9. Conclusions: The 4 new risk loci for AAA seem to be specific for AAA compared with other cardiovascular diseases and related traits suggesting that traditional cardiovascular risk factor management may only have limited value in preventing the progression of aneurysmal disease.
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| 15. |
- Kassebaum, Nicholas J., et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE), 1990-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2016
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In: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1603-1658
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background Healthy life expectancy (HALE) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) provide summary measures of health across geographies and time that can inform assessments of epidemiological patterns and health system performance, help to prioritise investments in research and development, and monitor progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We aimed to provide updated HALE and DALYs for geographies worldwide and evaluate how disease burden changes with development. Methods We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost (YLLs) and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for each geography, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using the Sullivan method, which draws from age-specific death rates and YLDs per capita. We then assessed how observed levels of DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends calculated with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator constructed from measures of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Findings Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2015, with decreases in communicable, neonatal, maternal, and nutritional (Group 1) disease DALYs off set by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Much of this epidemiological transition was caused by changes in population growth and ageing, but it was accelerated by widespread improvements in SDI that also correlated strongly with the increasing importance of NCDs. Both total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most Group 1 causes significantly decreased by 2015, and although total burden climbed for the majority of NCDs, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined. Nonetheless, age-standardised DALY rates due to several high-burden NCDs (including osteoarthritis, drug use disorders, depression, diabetes, congenital birth defects, and skin, oral, and sense organ diseases) either increased or remained unchanged, leading to increases in their relative ranking in many geographies. From 2005 to 2015, HALE at birth increased by an average of 2.9 years (95% uncertainty interval 2.9-3.0) for men and 3.5 years (3.4-3.7) for women, while HALE at age 65 years improved by 0.85 years (0.78-0.92) and 1.2 years (1.1-1.3), respectively. Rising SDI was associated with consistently higher HALE and a somewhat smaller proportion of life spent with functional health loss; however, rising SDI was related to increases in total disability. Many countries and territories in central America and eastern sub-Saharan Africa had increasingly lower rates of disease burden than expected given their SDI. At the same time, a subset of geographies recorded a growing gap between observed and expected levels of DALYs, a trend driven mainly by rising burden due to war, interpersonal violence, and various NCDs. Interpretation Health is improving globally, but this means more populations are spending more time with functional health loss, an absolute expansion of morbidity. The proportion of life spent in ill health decreases somewhat with increasing SDI, a relative compression of morbidity, which supports continued efforts to elevate personal income, improve education, and limit fertility. Our analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework on which to benchmark geography-specific health performance and SDG progress. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform financial and research investments, prevention efforts, health policies, and health system improvement initiatives for all countries along the development continuum.
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| 16. |
- Klasson, Lisa, et al.
(author)
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Genome evolution of Wolbachia strain wPip from the Culex pipiens group.
- 2008
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In: Molecular biology and evolution. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0737-4038 .- 1537-1719. ; 25:9, s. 1877-87
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The obligate intracellular bacterium Wolbachia pipientis strain wPip induces cytoplasmic incompatibility (CI), patterns of crossing sterility, in the Culex pipiens group of mosquitoes. The complete sequence is presented of the 1.48-Mbp genome of wPip which encodes 1386 coding sequences (CDSs), representing the first genome sequence of a B-supergroup Wolbachia. Comparisons were made with the smaller genomes of Wolbachia strains wMel of Drosophila melanogaster, an A-supergroup Wolbachia that is also a CI inducer, and wBm, a mutualist of Brugia malayi nematodes that belongs to the D-supergroup of Wolbachia. Despite extensive gene order rearrangement, a core set of Wolbachia genes shared between the 3 genomes can be identified and contrasts with a flexible gene pool where rapid evolution has taken place. There are much more extensive prophage and ankyrin repeat encoding (ANK) gene components of the wPip genome compared with wMel and wBm, and both are likely to be of considerable importance in wPip biology. Five WO-B-like prophage regions are present and contain some genes that are identical or highly similar in multiple prophage copies, whereas other genes are unique, and it is likely that extensive recombination, duplication, and insertion have occurred between copies. A much larger number of genes encode ankyrin repeat (ANK) proteins in wPip, with 60 present compared with 23 in wMel, many of which are within or close to the prophage regions. It is likely that this pattern is partly a result of expansions in the wPip lineage, due for example to gene duplication, but their presence is in some cases more ancient. The wPip genome underlines the considerable evolutionary flexibility of Wolbachia, providing clear evidence for the rapid evolution of ANK-encoding genes and of prophage regions. This host-Wolbachia system, with its complex patterns of sterility induced between populations, now provides an excellent model for unraveling the molecular systems underlying host reproductive manipulation.
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| 17. |
- Kruk, Sandor, et al.
(author)
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The impact of satellite trails on Hubble Space Telescope observations
- 2023
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In: Nature Astronomy. - : Springer Nature. - 2397-3366. ; 7, s. 262-268
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The recent launch of low Earth orbit satellite constellations is creating a growing threat for astronomical observations with ground-based telescopes1–10 that has alarmed the astronomical community 11–16. Observations affected by artificial satellites can become unusable for scientific research, wasting a growing fraction of the research budget on costly infrastructures and mitigation efforts. Here we report the first measurements, to our knowledge, of artificial satellite contamination on observations from a low Earth orbit made with the Hubble Space Telescope. With the help of volunteers on a citizen science project (www.asteroidhunter.org) and a deep learning algorithm, we scanned the archive of Hubble Space Telescope images taken between 2002 and 2021. We find that a fraction of 2.7% of the individual exposures with a typical exposure time of 11 minutes are crossed by satellites and that the fraction of satellite trails in the images increases with time. This fraction depends on the size of the field of view, exposure time, filter used and pointing. With the growing number of artificial satellites currently planned, the fraction of Hubble Space Telescope images crossed by satellites will increase in the next decade and will need further close study and monitoring.
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| 18. |
- Kyu, Hmwe H, et al.
(author)
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Global and National Burden of Diseases and Injuries Among Children and Adolescents Between 1990 and 2013 : Findings From the Global Burden of Disease 2013 Study.
- 2016
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In: JAMA pediatrics. - : American Medical Association (AMA). - 2168-6203 .- 2168-6211. ; 170:3, s. 267-287
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- IMPORTANCE: The literature focuses on mortality among children younger than 5 years. Comparable information on nonfatal health outcomes among these children and the fatal and nonfatal burden of diseases and injuries among older children and adolescents is scarce.OBJECTIVE: To determine levels and trends in the fatal and nonfatal burden of diseases and injuries among younger children (aged <5 years), older children (aged 5-9 years), and adolescents (aged 10-19 years) between 1990 and 2013 in 188 countries from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2013 study.EVIDENCE REVIEW: Data from vital registration, verbal autopsy studies, maternal and child death surveillance, and other sources covering 14 244 site-years (ie, years of cause of death data by geography) from 1980 through 2013 were used to estimate cause-specific mortality. Data from 35 620 epidemiological sources were used to estimate the prevalence of the diseases and sequelae in the GBD 2013 study. Cause-specific mortality for most causes was estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble Model strategy. For some infectious diseases (eg, HIV infection/AIDS, measles, hepatitis B) where the disease process is complex or the cause of death data were insufficient or unavailable, we used natural history models. For most nonfatal health outcomes, DisMod-MR 2.0, a Bayesian metaregression tool, was used to meta-analyze the epidemiological data to generate prevalence estimates.FINDINGS: Of the 7.7 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 7.4-8.1) million deaths among children and adolescents globally in 2013, 6.28 million occurred among younger children, 0.48 million among older children, and 0.97 million among adolescents. In 2013, the leading causes of death were lower respiratory tract infections among younger children (905 059 deaths; 95% UI, 810 304-998 125), diarrheal diseases among older children (38 325 deaths; 95% UI, 30 365-47 678), and road injuries among adolescents (115 186 deaths; 95% UI, 105 185-124 870). Iron deficiency anemia was the leading cause of years lived with disability among children and adolescents, affecting 619 (95% UI, 618-621) million in 2013. Large between-country variations exist in mortality from leading causes among children and adolescents. Countries with rapid declines in all-cause mortality between 1990 and 2013 also experienced large declines in most leading causes of death, whereas countries with the slowest declines had stagnant or increasing trends in the leading causes of death. In 2013, Nigeria had a 12% global share of deaths from lower respiratory tract infections and a 38% global share of deaths from malaria. India had 33% of the world's deaths from neonatal encephalopathy. Half of the world's diarrheal deaths among children and adolescents occurred in just 5 countries: India, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Pakistan, Nigeria, and Ethiopia.CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Understanding the levels and trends of the leading causes of death and disability among children and adolescents is critical to guide investment and inform policies. Monitoring these trends over time is also key to understanding where interventions are having an impact. Proven interventions exist to prevent or treat the leading causes of unnecessary death and disability among children and adolescents. The findings presented here show that these are underused and give guidance to policy makers in countries where more attention is needed.
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| 19. |
- Limer, Kate L., et al.
(author)
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Genetic Variation in Sex Hormone Genes Influences Heel Ultrasound Parameters in Middle-Aged and Elderly Men: Results From the European Male Aging Study (EMAS)
- 2009
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In: Journal of Bone and Mineral Research. - 1523-4681. ; 24:2, s. 314-323
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Genes involved in sex hormone pathways are candidates for influencing bone strength. Polymorphisms in these genes were tested for association with heel quantitative ultrasound (QUS) parameters in middle-aged and elderly European men. Men 40-79 yr of age were recruited from population registers in eight European centers for the European Male Aging Study (EMAS). Polymorphisms were genotyped in AR, ESR1, ESR2, CYP19A1, CYP17A1, SHBG, SRD5A2, LHB, and LHCGR. QUS parameters broadband ultrasound attenuation (BUA) and speed of sound (SOS) were measured in the heel and used to derive BMD. The relationships between Q US parameters and polymorphisms were assessed using linear regression adjusting for age and center. A total of 2693 men, with a mean age of 60.1 +/- 11.1 (SD) yr were included in the analysis. Their mean BUA was 80.0 +/- 18.9 dB/Mhz, SOS was 1550.2 +/- 34.1. m/s, and BMD was 0.542 +/- 0.141 g/cm(2). Significant associations were observed between multiple SNPs in a linkage disequilibrium (LD) block within CYP19A1, peaking at the TCT indel with the deletion allele associating with reduced ultrasound BMD in heterozygotes (beta = -0.016, p = -0.005) and homozygotes (beta = -0.029, p = 0.001). The results for BUA and SOS were similar. Significant associations with QUS parameters were also observed for the CAG repeat in AR and SNPs in CYP17A1, LHCGR, and ESR1 Our data confirm evidence of association between bone QUS parameters and polymorphisms in CYP79A1, as well as modest associations with polymorphisms in CYP17A1, ESR1, LHCGR, and AR in a population sample of European men; this supports a role for genetically determined sex hormone actions in influencing male bone health.
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| 20. |
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| 21. |
- Nicholl, Barbara I., et al.
(author)
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Association of HTR2A Polymorphisms With Chronic Widespread Pain and the Extent of Musculoskeletal Pain
- 2011
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In: Arthritis and Rheumatism. - : Wiley. - 1529-0131 .- 0004-3591. ; 63:3, s. 810-818
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Objective. The aim of the current study was to investigate whether genetic variation in genes across the serotoninergic system is associated with chronic widespread pain (CWP) and the number of pain sites reported. Methods. A discovery cohort, with pain data at 3 time points, was used to investigate genetic associations with 2 phenotypes: 1) CWP (at >= 2 time points; n = 164) compared with pain-free controls (at 3 time points; n = 172), and 2) the maximum number of pain sites reported at any 1 of the 3 time points (range of sites 0-29; n = 989). A cohort of 2,285 men for whom a DNA sample and pain data were available (including 203 CWP cases and 929 controls) was used for validation. Pairwise tagging (r(2) > 0.8) single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were genotyped. Logistic and zero-inflated negative binomial regression analyses were used to test for SNP associations with CWP and the number of pain sites, respectively. Results. SNPs in HTR2A were associated with both pain phenotypes in the discovery cohort, and a number of these SNP associations were replicated in the validation cohort, some of which were attenuated after adjustment for depression. There was an increased likelihood of having CWP in subjects with 1 or 2 copies of the T allele of rs12584920 (odds ratio [OR] 1.64, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.01-2.60 [P = 0.03] in the discovery cohort, and OR 1.46, 95% CI 1.07-2.00 [P = 0.018] in the validation cohort). A similar association was observed between rs17289394 and the maximum number of pain sites reported in both cohorts. Results from a meta-analysis of the data from the 2 cohorts further strengthened these findings. Conclusion. The findings of this study support the role of HTR2A in the genetic predisposition to musculoskeletal pain.
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| 22. |
- Nicholl, Barbara I., et al.
(author)
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No evidence for a role of the catechol-O-methyltransferase pain sensitivity haplotypes in chronic widespread pain
- 2010
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In: Annals of the Rheumatic Diseases. - : BMJ. - 1468-2060 .- 0003-4967. ; 69:11, s. 2009-2012
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Objectives The aim of this study was to investigate the association between the catechol-O-methyltransferase (COMT) 'pain sensitivity' haplotypes and chronic widespread pain (CWP) in two distinct cohorts. Methods Cases of CWP and controls free of pain were selected from two population-based studies: the Epidemiology of Functional Disorders study (EPIFUND) (UK) and the European Male Ageing Study (European). The number of cases and controls were 164 and 172, and 204 and 935, respectively. Identical American College of Rheumatology criteria were used in both studies to ascertain CWP status. The EPIFUND study had three time points and cases were classified as subjects with CWP at two or three time points and controls as those free of pain at all three time points. Four single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP): rs6269, rs4633, rs4818 and rs4680 (V158M) were genotyped using Sequenom technology. Allele and genotype frequencies were compared and haplotype analysis was conducted using PLINK software. Results No differences in allele or genotype frequencies for any of the four SNP were observed between cases and controls for either cohort. Haplotype analysis also showed no difference in the frequency of haplotypes between cases and controls. Conclusions There was no evidence of association between the COMT 'pain sensitivity' haplotypes and CWP in two population-based cohorts.
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| 23. |
- Pinto, Dalila, et al.
(author)
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Convergence of Genes and Cellular Pathways Dysregulated in Autism Spectrum Disorders.
- 2014
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In: American journal of human genetics. - : Elsevier BV. - 1537-6605 .- 0002-9297. ; 94:5, s. 677-694
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Rare copy-number variation (CNV) is an important source of risk for autism spectrum disorders (ASDs). We analyzed 2,446 ASD-affected families and confirmed an excess of genic deletions and duplications in affected versus control groups (1.41-fold, p = 1.0× 10(-5)) and an increase in affected subjects carrying exonic pathogenic CNVs overlapping known loci associated with dominant or X-linked ASD and intellectual disability (odds ratio = 12.62, p = 2.7× 10(-15), ∼3% of ASD subjects). Pathogenic CNVs, often showing variable expressivity, included rare de novo and inherited events at 36 loci, implicating ASD-associated genes (CHD2, HDAC4, and GDI1) previously linked to other neurodevelopmental disorders, as well as other genes such as SETD5, MIR137, and HDAC9. Consistent with hypothesized gender-specific modulators, females with ASD were more likely to have highly penetrant CNVs (p = 0.017) and were also overrepresented among subjects with fragile X syndrome protein targets (p = 0.02). Genes affected by de novo CNVs and/or loss-of-function single-nucleotide variants converged on networks related to neuronal signaling and development, synapse function, and chromatin regulation.
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| 24. |
- Rannikmaee, Kristiina, et al.
(author)
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Common variation in COL4A1/COL4A2 is associated with sporadic cerebral small vessel disease
- 2015
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In: Neurology. - 1526-632X. ; 84:9, s. 918-926
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Objectives:We hypothesized that common variants in the collagen genes COL4A1/COL4A2 are associated with sporadic forms of cerebral small vessel disease.Methods:We conducted meta-analyses of existing genotype data among individuals of European ancestry to determine associations of 1,070 common single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the COL4A1/COL4A2 genomic region with the following: intracerebral hemorrhage and its subtypes (deep, lobar) (1,545 cases, 1,485 controls); ischemic stroke and its subtypes (cardioembolic, large vessel disease, lacunar) (12,389 cases, 62,004 controls); and white matter hyperintensities (2,733 individuals with ischemic stroke and 9,361 from population-based cohorts with brain MRI data). We calculated a statistical significance threshold that accounted for multiple testing and linkage disequilibrium between SNPs (p < 0.000084).Results:Three intronic SNPs in COL4A2 were significantly associated with deep intracerebral hemorrhage (lead SNP odds ratio [OR] 1.29, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.14-1.46, p = 0.00003; r(2) > 0.9 between SNPs). Although SNPs associated with deep intracerebral hemorrhage did not reach our significance threshold for association with lacunar ischemic stroke (lead SNP OR 1.10, 95% CI 1.03-1.18, p = 0.0073), and with white matter hyperintensity volume in symptomatic ischemic stroke patients (lead SNP OR 1.07, 95% CI 1.01-1.13, p = 0.016), the direction of association was the same. There was no convincing evidence of association with white matter hyperintensities in population-based studies or with non-small vessel disease cerebrovascular phenotypes.Conclusions:Our results indicate an association between common variation in the COL4A2 gene and symptomatic small vessel disease, particularly deep intracerebral hemorrhage. These findings merit replication studies, including in ethnic groups of non-European ancestry.
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| 25. |
- Roshandel, Delnaz, et al.
(author)
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A validation of the first genome-wide association study of calcaneus ultrasound parameters in the European Male Ageing Study
- 2011
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In: BMC Medical Genetics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1471-2350. ; 12
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: A number of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) have been associated with broadband ultrasound attenuation (BUA) and speed of sound (SOS) as measured by quantitative ultrasound (QUS) at the calcaneus in the Framingham 100K genome-wide association study (GWAS) but have not been validated in independent studies. The aim of this analysis was to determine if these SNPs are associated with QUS measurements assessed in a large independent population of European middle-aged and elderly men. The association between these SNPs and bone mineral density (BMD) measured using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) was also tested. Methods: Men aged 40-79 years (N = 2960) were recruited from population registers in seven European centres for participation in an observational study of male ageing, the European Male Ageing Study (EMAS). QUS at the calcaneus was measured in all subjects and blood was taken for genetic analysis. Lumbar spine (LS), femoral neck (FN) and total hip (TH) BMD were measured by DXA in a subsample of 620 men in two centres. SNPs associated with BUA or SOS in the Framingham study with p < 10(-4) were selected and genotyped using SEQUENOM technology. Linear regression was used to test for the association between SNPs and standardised (SD) bone outcomes under an additive genetic model adjusting for centre. The same direction of effect and p < 0.05 indicated replication. Results: Thirty-four of 38 selected SNPs were successfully genotyped in 2377 men. Suggestive evidence of replication was observed for a single SNP, rs3754032, which was associated with a higher SOS (beta(SD) = 0.07, p = 0.032) but not BUA (beta(SD) = 0.02, p = 0.505) and is located in the 3'UTR of WDR77 (WD repeat domain 77) also known as androgen receptor cofactor p44. A single SNP, rs238358, was associated with BMD at the LS (beta(SD) = -0.22, p = 0.014), FN (beta(SD) = -0.31, p = 0.001) and TH (beta(SD) = -0.36, p = 0.002) in a locus previously associated with LS BMD in large-scale GWAS, incorporating AKAP11 and RANKL. Conclusions: We found suggestive evidence of association between a single SNP located in the 3'UTR of WDR77 with calcaneal ultrasound parameters. The majority of SNPs, associated with QUS parameters
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| 26. |
- Roshandel, Delnaz, et al.
(author)
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Genetic Variation in the RANKL/RANK/OPG Signaling Pathway Is Associated With Bone Turnover and Bone Mineral Density in Men
- 2010
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In: Journal of Bone and Mineral Research. - : Wiley. - 1523-4681 .- 0884-0431. ; 25:8, s. 1830-1838
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The aim of this study was to determine if single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in RANKL, RANK, and OPG influence bone turnover and bone mineral density (BMD) in men. Pairwise tag SNPs (r(2) >= 0.8) were selected for RANKL, RANK, and OPG and their 10-kb flanking regions. Selected tag SNPs plus five SNPs near RANKL and OPG, associated with BMD in published genome-wide association studies (GWAS), were genotyped in 2653 men aged 40 to 79 years of age recruited for participation in a population-based study of male aging, the European Male Ageing Study (EMAS). N-terminal propeptide of type I procollagen (PINP) and C-terminal cross-linked telopeptide of type I collagen (CTX-I) serum levels were measured in all men. BMD at the calcaneus was estimated by quantitative ultrasound (QUS) in all men. Lumbar spine and total-hip areal BMD (BMDa) was measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) in a subsample of 620 men. Multiple OPG, RANK, and RANKL SNPs were associated with bone turnover markers. We also identified a number of SNPs associated with BMD, including rs2073618 in OPG and rs9594759 near RANKL. The minor allele of rs2073618 (C) was associated with higher levels of both PINP (beta = 1.83, p = .004) and CTX-I (beta = 17.59, p = 4.74 x 10(-4)), and lower lumbar spine BMDa (beta = -0.02, p = .026). The minor allele of rs9594759 (C) was associated with lower PINP (beta = -1.84, p = .003) and CTX-I (beta = -27.02, p = 6.06 x 10(-8)) and higher ultrasound BMD at the calcaneus (beta = 0.01, p = .037). Our findings suggest that genetic variation in the RANKL/RANK/OPG signaling pathway influences bone turnover and BMD in European men. (c) 2010 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.
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| 27. |
- Roshandel, Delnaz, et al.
(author)
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Influence of Polymorphisms in the RANKL/RANK/OPG Signaling Pathway on Volumetric Bone Mineral Density and Bone Geometry at the Forearm in Men
- 2011
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In: Calcified Tissue International. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1432-0827 .- 0171-967X. ; 89:6, s. 446-455
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We sought to determine the influence of single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in RANKL, RANK, and OPG on volumetric bone mineral density (vBMD) and bone geometry at the radius in men. Pairwise tag SNPs (r (2) a parts per thousand yen 0.8) for RANKL (n = 8), RANK (n = 44), and OPG (n = 22) and five SNPs near RANKL and OPG strongly associated with areal BMD in genomewide association studies were previously genotyped in men aged 40-79 years in the European Male Ageing Study (EMAS). Here, these SNPs were analyzed in a subsample of men (n = 589) who had peripheral quantitative computed tomography (pQCT) performed at the distal (4%) and mid-shaft (50%) radius. Estimated parameters were total and trabecular vBMD (mg/mm(3)) and cross-sectional area (mm(2)) at the 4% site and cortical vBMD (mg/mm(3)); total, cortical, and medullary area (mm(2)); cortical thickness (mm); and stress strain index (SSI) (mm(3)) at the 50% site. We identified 12 OPG SNPs associated with vBMD and/or geometric parameters, including rs10505348 associated with total vBMD (beta [95% CI] = 9.35 [2.12-16.58], P = 0.011), cortical vBMD (beta [95% CI] = 5.62 [2.10-9.14], P = 0.002), cortical thickness (beta [95% CI] = 0.08 [0.03-0.13], P = 0.002), and medullary area (beta [95% CI] = -2.90 [-4.94 to -0.86], P = 0.005) and rs2073618 associated with cortical vBMD (beta [95% CI] = -4.30 [-7.78 to -0.82], P = 0.015) and cortical thickness (beta [95% CI] = -0.08 [-0.13 to -0.03], P = 0.001). Three RANK SNPs were associated with vBMD, including rs12956925 associated with trabecular vBMD (beta [95% CI] = -7.58 [-14.01 to -1.15], P = 0.021). There were five RANK SNPs associated with geometric parameters, including rs8083511 associated with distal radius cross-sectional area (beta [95% CI] = 8.90 [0.92-16.88], P = 0.029). No significant association was observed between RANKL SNPs and pQCT parameters. Our findings suggest that genetic variation in OPG and RANK influences radius vBMD and geometry in men.
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| 28. |
- Roshandel, Delnaz, et al.
(author)
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Polymorphisms in Genes Involved in the NF-kappa B Signalling Pathway Are Associated with Bone Mineral Density, Geometry and Turnover in Men
- 2011
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In: PLoS ONE. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203. ; 6:11
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Introduction: In this study, we aimed to investigate the association between single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) within two genes involved in the NF-kappa B cascade (GPR177 and MAP3K14) and bone mineral density (BMD) assessed at different skeletal sites, radial geometric parameters and bone turnover. Methods: Ten GPR177 SNPs previously associated with BMD with genome-wide significance and twelve tag SNPs (r(2) >= 0.8) within MAP3K14 (+/-10 kb) were genotyped in 2359 men aged 40-79 years recruited from 8 centres for participation in the European Male Aging Study (EMAS). Measurement of bone turnover markers (PINP and CTX-I) in the serum and quantitative ultrasound (QUS) at the calcaneus were performed in all centres. Dual energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA), at the lumbar spine and hip, and peripheral quantitative computed tomography (pQCT), at the distal and midshaft radius, were performed in a subsample (2 centres). Linear regression was used to test for association between the SNPs and bone measures under an additive genetic model adjusting for study centre. Results: We validated the associations between SNPs in GPR177 and BMDa previously reported and also observed evidence of pleiotrophic effects on density and geometry. Rs2772300 in GPR177 was associated with increased total hip and LS BMDa, increased total and cortical vBMD at the radius and increased cortical area, thickness and stress strain index. We also found evidence of association with BMDa, vBMD, geometric parameters and CTX-I for SNPs in MAP3K14. None of the GPR177 and MAP3K14 SNPs were associated with calcaneal estimated BMD measured by QUS. Conclusion: Our findings suggest that SNPs in GPR177 and MAP3K14 involved in the NF-kappa B signalling pathway influence bone mineral density, geometry and turnover in a population-based cohort of middle aged and elderly men. This adds to the understanding of the role of genetic variation in this pathway in determining bone health.
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| 29. |
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| 30. |
- Speliotes, Elizabeth K., et al.
(author)
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Association analyses of 249,796 individuals reveal 18 new loci associated with body mass index
- 2010
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In: Nature Genetics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1061-4036 .- 1546-1718. ; 42:11, s. 937-948
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Obesity is globally prevalent and highly heritable, but its underlying genetic factors remain largely elusive. To identify genetic loci for obesity susceptibility, we examined associations between body mass index and ~2.8 million SNPs in up to 123,865 individuals with targeted follow up of 42 SNPs in up to 125,931 additional individuals. We confirmed 14 known obesity susceptibility loci and identified 18 new loci associated with body mass index (P < 5 × 10−8), one of which includes a copy number variant near GPRC5B. Some loci (at MC4R, POMC, SH2B1 and BDNF) map near key hypothalamic regulators of energy balance, and one of these loci is near GIPR, an incretin receptor. Furthermore, genes in other newly associated loci may provide new insights into human body weight regulation.
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| 31. |
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| 32. |
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| 33. |
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| 34. |
- Walker, Thomas, et al.
(author)
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Ankyrin repeat domain-encoding genes in the wPip strain of Wolbachia from the Culex pipiens group.
- 2007
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In: BMC Biology. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1741-7007. ; 5, s. 39-
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Wolbachia are obligate endosymbiotic bacteria maternally transmitted through the egg cytoplasm that are responsible for several reproductive disorders in their insect hosts, such as cytoplasmic incompatibility (CI) in infected mosquitoes. Species in the Culex pipiens complex display an unusually high number of Wolbachia-induced crossing types, and based on present data, only the wPip strain is present.RESULTS: The sequencing of the wPip strain of Wolbachia revealed the presence of 60 ankyrin repeat domain (ANK) encoding genes and expression studies of these genes were carried out in adult mosquitoes. One of these ANK genes, pk2, is shown to be part of an operon of three prophage-associated genes with sex-specific expression, and is present in two identical copies in the genome. Another homolog of pk2 is also present that is differentially expressed in different Cx. pipiens group strains. A further two ANK genes showed sex-specific regulation in wPip-infected Cx. pipiens group adults.CONCLUSION: The high number, variability and differential expression of ANK genes in wPip suggest an important role in Wolbachia biology, and the gene family provides both markers and promising candidates for the study of reproductive manipulation.
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| 35. |
- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(author)
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Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2015 : the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.
- 2016
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In: The lancet. HIV. - : Elsevier. - 2352-3018. ; 3:8, s. e361-e387
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and mortality for 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015.METHODS: For countries without high-quality vital registration data, we estimated prevalence and incidence with data from antenatal care clinics and population-based seroprevalence surveys, and with assumptions by age and sex on initial CD4 distribution at infection, CD4 progression rates (probability of progression from higher to lower CD4 cell-count category), on and off antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality, and mortality from all other causes. Our estimation strategy links the GBD 2015 assessment of all-cause mortality and estimation of incidence and prevalence so that for each draw from the uncertainty distribution all assumptions used in each step are internally consistent. We estimated incidence, prevalence, and death with GBD versions of the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and Spectrum software originally developed by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). We used an open-source version of EPP and recoded Spectrum for speed, and used updated assumptions from systematic reviews of the literature and GBD demographic data. For countries with high-quality vital registration data, we developed the cohort incidence bias adjustment model to estimate HIV incidence and prevalence largely from the number of deaths caused by HIV recorded in cause-of-death statistics. We corrected these statistics for garbage coding and HIV misclassification.FINDINGS: Global HIV incidence reached its peak in 1997, at 3·3 million new infections (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-3·4 million). Annual incidence has stayed relatively constant at about 2·6 million per year (range 2·5-2·8 million) since 2005, after a period of fast decline between 1997 and 2005. The number of people living with HIV/AIDS has been steadily increasing and reached 38·8 million (95% UI 37·6-40·4 million) in 2015. At the same time, HIV/AIDS mortality has been declining at a steady pace, from a peak of 1·8 million deaths (95% UI 1·7-1·9 million) in 2005, to 1·2 million deaths (1·1-1·3 million) in 2015. We recorded substantial heterogeneity in the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS across countries. Although many countries have experienced decreases in HIV/AIDS mortality and in annual new infections, other countries have had slowdowns or increases in rates of change in annual new infections.INTERPRETATION: Scale-up of ART and prevention of mother-to-child transmission has been one of the great successes of global health in the past two decades. However, in the past decade, progress in reducing new infections has been slow, development assistance for health devoted to HIV has stagnated, and resources for health in low-income countries have grown slowly. Achievement of the new ambitious goals for HIV enshrined in Sustainable Development Goal 3 and the 90-90-90 UNAIDS targets will be challenging, and will need continued efforts from governments and international agencies in the next 15 years to end AIDS by 2030.
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| 36. |
- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national levels of neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality during 1990-2013 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2014
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In: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 384:9947, s. 957-979
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Remarkable financial and political efforts have been focused on the reduction of child mortality during the past few decades. Timely measurements of levels and trends in under-5 mortality are important to assess progress towards the Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) target of reduction of child mortality by two thirds from 1990 to 2015, and to identify models of success.METHODS: We generated updated estimates of child mortality in early neonatal (age 0-6 days), late neonatal (7-28 days), postneonatal (29-364 days), childhood (1-4 years), and under-5 (0-4 years) age groups for 188 countries from 1970 to 2013, with more than 29 000 survey, census, vital registration, and sample registration datapoints. We used Gaussian process regression with adjustments for bias and non-sampling error to synthesise the data for under-5 mortality for each country, and a separate model to estimate mortality for more detailed age groups. We used explanatory mixed effects regression models to assess the association between under-5 mortality and income per person, maternal education, HIV child death rates, secular shifts, and other factors. To quantify the contribution of these different factors and birth numbers to the change in numbers of deaths in under-5 age groups from 1990 to 2013, we used Shapley decomposition. We used estimated rates of change between 2000 and 2013 to construct under-5 mortality rate scenarios out to 2030.FINDINGS: We estimated that 6·3 million (95% UI 6·0-6·6) children under-5 died in 2013, a 64% reduction from 17·6 million (17·1-18·1) in 1970. In 2013, child mortality rates ranged from 152·5 per 1000 livebirths (130·6-177·4) in Guinea-Bissau to 2·3 (1·8-2·9) per 1000 in Singapore. The annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2013 ranged from -6·8% to 0·1%. 99 of 188 countries, including 43 of 48 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, had faster decreases in child mortality during 2000-13 than during 1990-2000. In 2013, neonatal deaths accounted for 41·6% of under-5 deaths compared with 37·4% in 1990. Compared with 1990, in 2013, rising numbers of births, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, led to 1·4 million more child deaths, and rising income per person and maternal education led to 0·9 million and 2·2 million fewer deaths, respectively. Changes in secular trends led to 4·2 million fewer deaths. Unexplained factors accounted for only -1% of the change in child deaths. In 30 developing countries, decreases since 2000 have been faster than predicted attributable to income, education, and secular shift alone.INTERPRETATION: Only 27 developing countries are expected to achieve MDG 4. Decreases since 2000 in under-5 mortality rates are accelerating in many developing countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. The Millennium Declaration and increased development assistance for health might have been a factor in faster decreases in some developing countries. Without further accelerated progress, many countries in west and central Africa will still have high levels of under-5 mortality in 2030.
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| 37. |
- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2016
-
In: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1459-1544
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.METHODS: We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).FINDINGS: Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.INTERPRETATION: At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.
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| 38. |
- Wheeler, Caitlin, et al.
(author)
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A paleoecological investigation of recent cyanobacterial blooms and their drivers in two contrasting lakes
- 2024
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In: Harmful Algae. - : Elsevier. - 1568-9883 .- 1878-1470. ; 131
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Cyanobacterial blooms are one of the most significant threats to global water security and freshwater biodiversity. Interactions among multiple stressors, including habitat degradation, species invasions, increased nutrient runoff, and climate change, are key drivers. However, assessing the role of anthropogenic activity on the onset of cyanobacterial blooms and exploring response variation amongst lakes of varying size and depth is usually limited by lack of historical records. In the present study we applied molecular, paleolimnological (trace metal, Itrax-µ-XRF and hyperspectral scanning, chronology), paleobotanical (pollen) and historical data to reconstruct cyanobacterial abundance and community composition and anthropogenic impacts in two dune lakes over a period of up to 1200 years. Metabarcoding and droplet digital PCR results showed very low levels of picocyanobacteria present in the lakes prior to about CE 1854 (1839–1870 CE) in the smaller shallow Lake Alice and CE 1970 (1963–1875 CE) in the larger deeper Lake Wiritoa. Hereafter bloom-forming cyanobacteria were detected and increased notably in abundance post CE 1984 (1982–1985 CE) in Lake Alice and CE 1997 (1990–2007 CE) in Lake Wiritoa. Currently, the magnitude of blooms is more pronounced in Lake Wiritoa, potentially attributable to hypoxia-induced release of phosphorus from sediment, introducing an additional source of nutrients. Generalized linear modelling was used to investigate the contribution of nutrients (proxy = bacterial functions), temperature, redox conditions (Mn:Fe), and erosion (Ti:Inc) in driving the abundance of cyanobacteria (ddPCR). In Lake Alice nutrients and erosion had a statistically significant effect, while in Lake Wiritoa nutrients and redox conditions were significant.
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| 39. |
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| 40. |
- Abbafati, Cristiana, et al.
(author)
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- 2020
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)
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