| 1. |
- Ademuyiwa, Adesoji O., et al.
(author)
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Determinants of morbidity and mortality following emergency abdominal surgery in children in low-income and middle-income countries
- 2016
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In: BMJ Global Health. - : BMJ Publishing Group Ltd. - 2059-7908. ; 1:4
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Child health is a key priority on the global health agenda, yet the provision of essential and emergency surgery in children is patchy in resource-poor regions. This study was aimed to determine the mortality risk for emergency abdominal paediatric surgery in low-income countries globally.Methods: Multicentre, international, prospective, cohort study. Self-selected surgical units performing emergency abdominal surgery submitted prespecified data for consecutive children aged <16 years during a 2-week period between July and December 2014. The United Nation's Human Development Index (HDI) was used to stratify countries. The main outcome measure was 30-day postoperative mortality, analysed by multilevel logistic regression.Results: This study included 1409 patients from 253 centres in 43 countries; 282 children were under 2 years of age. Among them, 265 (18.8%) were from low-HDI, 450 (31.9%) from middle-HDI and 694 (49.3%) from high-HDI countries. The most common operations performed were appendectomy, small bowel resection, pyloromyotomy and correction of intussusception. After adjustment for patient and hospital risk factors, child mortality at 30 days was significantly higher in low-HDI (adjusted OR 7.14 (95% CI 2.52 to 20.23), p<0.001) and middle-HDI (4.42 (1.44 to 13.56), p=0.009) countries compared with high-HDI countries, translating to 40 excess deaths per 1000 procedures performed.Conclusions: Adjusted mortality in children following emergency abdominal surgery may be as high as 7 times greater in low-HDI and middle-HDI countries compared with high-HDI countries. Effective provision of emergency essential surgery should be a key priority for global child health agendas.
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| 2. |
- Lunt, Daniel J., et al.
(author)
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The DeepMIP contribution to PMIP4 : experimental design for model simulations of the EECO, PETM, and pre-PETM (version 1.0)
- 2017
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In: Geoscientific Model Development. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1991-959X .- 1991-9603. ; 10:2, s. 889-901
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Past warm periods provide an opportunity to evaluate climate models under extreme forcing scenarios, in particular high (>800 ppmv) atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Although a post hoc intercomparison of Eocene (similar to 50 Ma) climate model simulations and geological data has been carried out previously, models of past high-CO2 periods have never been evaluated in a consistent framework. Here, we present an experimental design for climate model simulations of three warm periods within the early Eocene and the latest Paleocene (the EECO, PETM, and pre-PETM). Together with the CMIP6 pre-industrial control and abrupt 4 x CO2 simulations, and additional sensitivity studies, these form the first phase of DeepMIP - the Deep-time Model Intercomparison Project, itself a group within the wider Paleo-climate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP). The experimental design specifies and provides guidance on boundary conditions associated with palaeogeography, greenhouse gases, astronomical configuration, solar constant, land surface processes, and aerosols. Initial conditions, simulation length, and output variables are also specified. Finally, we explain how the geological data sets, which will be used to evaluate the simulations, will be developed.
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| 3. |
- Abram, Nerilie J., et al.
(author)
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Early onset of industrial-era warming across the oceans and continents
- 2016
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In: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 536:7617, s. 411-418
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The evolution of industrial-era warming across the continents and oceans provides a context for future climate change and is important for determining climate sensitivity and the processes that control regional warming. Here we use post-ad 1500 palaeoclimate records to show that sustained industrial-era warming of the tropical oceans first developed during the mid-nineteenth century and was nearly synchronous with Northern Hemisphere continental warming. The early onset of sustained, significant warming in palaeoclimate records and model simulations suggests that greenhouse forcing of industrial-era warming commenced as early as the mid-nineteenth century and included an enhanced equatorial ocean response mechanism. The development of Southern Hemisphere warming is delayed in reconstructions, but this apparent delay is not reproduced in climate simulations. Our findings imply that instrumental records are too short to comprehensively assess anthropogenic climate change and that, in some regions, about 180 years of industrial-era warming has already caused surface temperatures to emerge above pre-industrial values, even when taking natural variability into account.
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| 4. |
- Inglis, Gordon N., et al.
(author)
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Global mean surface temperature and climate sensitivity of the early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO), Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), and latest Paleocene
- 2020
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In: Climate of the Past. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 16:5, s. 1953-1968
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Accurate estimates of past global mean surface temperature (GMST) help to contextualise future climate change and are required to estimate the sensitivity of the climate system to CO2 forcing through Earth's history. Previous GMST estimates for the latest Paleocene and early Eocene (similar to 57 to 48 million years ago) span a wide range (similar to 9 to 23 degrees C higher than pre-industrial) and prevent an accurate assessment of climate sensitivity during this extreme greenhouse climate interval. Using the most recent data compilations, we employ a multi-method experimen- tal framework to calculate GMST during the three DeepMIP target intervals: (1) the latest Paleocene (similar to 57 Ma), (2) the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM; 56 Ma), and (3) the early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO; 53.3 to 49.1 Ma). Using six different methodologies, we find that the average GMST estimate (66% confidence) during the latest Paleocene, PETM, and EECO was 26.3 degrees C (22.3 to 28.3 degrees C), 31.6 degrees C (27.2 to 34.5 degrees C), and 27.0 degrees C (23.2 to 29.7 degrees C), respectively. GMST estimates from the EECO are similar to 10 to 16 degrees C warmer than pre-industrial, higher than the estimate given by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (9 to 14 degrees C higher than pre-industrial). Leveraging the large signal associated with these extreme warm climates, we combine estimates of GMST and CO2 from the latest Paleocene, PETM, and EECO to calculate gross estimates of the average climate sensitivity between the early Paleogene and today. We demonstrate that bulk equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS; 66% confidence) during the latest Paleocene, PETM, and EECO is 4.5 degrees C (2.4 to 6.8 degrees C), 3.6 degrees C (2.3 to 4.7 degrees C), and 3.1 degrees C (1.8 to 4.4 degrees C) per doubling of CO2. These values are generally similar to those assessed by the IPCC (1.5 to 4.5 ffiC per doubling CO2) but appear incompatible with low ECS values (< 1 :5 per doubling CO2).
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| 5. |
- Lunt, Daniel J., et al.
(author)
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DeepMIP : model intercomparison of early Eocene climatic optimum (EECO) large-scale climate features and comparison with proxy data
- 2021
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In: Climate of the Past. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 17:1, s. 203-227
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We present results from an ensemble of eight climate models, each of which has carried out simulations of the early Eocene climate optimum (EECO, similar to 50 million years ago). These simulations have been carried out in the framework of the Deep-Time Model Intercomparison Project (DeepMIP; http://www.deepmip.org , last access: 10 January 2021); thus, all models have been configured with the same paleogeographic and vegetation boundary conditions. The results indicate that these non-CO2 boundary conditions contribute between 3 and 5 degrees C to Eocene warmth. Compared with results from previous studies, the DeepMIP simulations generally show a reduced spread of the global mean surface temperature response across the ensemble for a given atmospheric CO2 concentration as well as an increased climate sensitivity on average. An energy balance analysis of the model ensemble indicates that global mean warming in the Eocene compared with the preindustrial period mostly arises from decreases in emissivity due to the elevated CO2 concentration (and associated water vapour and long-wave cloud feedbacks), whereas the reduction in the Eocene in terms of the meridional temperature gradient is primarily due to emissivity and albedo changes owing to the non-CO2 boundary conditions (i.e. the removal of the Antarctic ice sheet and changes in vegetation). Three of the models (the Community Earth System Model, CESM; the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, GFDL, model; and the Norwegian Earth System Model, NorESM) show results that are consistent with the proxies in terms of the global mean temperature, meridional SST gradient, and CO2, without prescribing changes to model parameters. In addition, many of the models agree well with the first-order spatial patterns in the SST proxies. However, at a more regional scale, the models lack skill. In particular, the modelled anomalies are substantially lower than those indicated by the proxies in the southwest Pacific; here, modelled continental surface air temperature anomalies are more consistent with surface air temperature proxies, implying a possible inconsistency between marine and terrestrial temperatures in either the proxies or models in this region. Our aim is that the documentation of the large-scale features and model-data comparison presented herein will pave the way to further studies that explore aspects of the model simulations in more detail, for example the ocean circulation, hydrological cycle, and modes of variability, and encourage sensitivity studies to aspects such as paleogeography, orbital configuration, and aerosols.
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| 6. |
- Rohrer, Julia M., et al.
(author)
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Putting the Self in Self-Correction : Findings From the Loss-of-Confidence Project
- 2021
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In: Perspectives on Psychological Science. - : Sage Publications. - 1745-6916 .- 1745-6924. ; 16:6, s. 1255-1269
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Science is often perceived to be a self-correcting enterprise. In principle, the assessment of scientific claims is supposed to proceed in a cumulative fashion, with the reigning theories of the day progressively approximating truth more accurately over time. In practice, however, cumulative self-correction tends to proceed less efficiently than one might naively suppose. Far from evaluating new evidence dispassionately and infallibly, individual scientists often cling stubbornly to prior findings. Here we explore the dynamics of scientific self-correction at an individual rather than collective level. In 13 written statements, researchers from diverse branches of psychology share why and how they have lost confidence in one of their own published findings. We qualitatively characterize these disclosures and explore their implications. A cross-disciplinary survey suggests that such loss-of-confidence sentiments are surprisingly common among members of the broader scientific population yet rarely become part of the public record. We argue that removing barriers to self-correction at the individual level is imperative if the scientific community as a whole is to achieve the ideal of efficient self-correction.
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| 7. |
- Tierney, Jessica E., et al.
(author)
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Deglacial Indian monsoon failure and North Atlantic stadials linked by Indian Ocean surface cooling
- 2016
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In: Nature Geoscience. - 1752-0894 .- 1752-0908. ; 9:1, s. 46-
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The Indian monsoon, the largest monsoon system on Earth, responds to remote climatic forcings, including temperature changes in the North Atlantic(1,2). The monsoon was weak during two cool periods that punctuated the last deglaciation-Heinrich Stadial 1 and the Younger Dryas. It has been suggested that sea surface cooling in the Indian Ocean was the critical link between these North Atlantic stadials and monsoon failure(3); however, based on existing proxy records(4) it is unclear whether surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean and Arabian Sea dropped during these intervals. Here we compile new and existing temperature proxy data(4-7) from the Arabian Sea, and find that surface temperatures cooled whereas subsurface temperatures warmed during both Heinrich Stadial 1 and the Younger Dryas. Our analysis of model simulations shows that surface cooling weakens the monsoon winds and leads to destratification of the water column and substantial subsurface warming. We thus conclude that sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean are indeed the link between North Atlantic climate and the strength of the Indian monsoon.
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| 8. |
- Tierney, Jessica E., et al.
(author)
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Past climates inform our future
- 2020
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In: Science. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 0036-8075 .- 1095-9203. ; 370:6517
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Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
- As the world warms, there is a profound need to improve projections of climate change. Although the latest Earth system models offer an unprecedented number of features, fundamental uncertainties continue to cloud our view of the future. Past climates provide the only opportunity to observe how the Earth system responds to high carbon dioxide, underlining a fundamental role for paleoclimatology in constraining future climate change. Here, we review the relevancy of paleoclimate information for climate prediction and discuss the prospects for emerging methodologies to further insights gained from past climates. Advances in proxy methods and interpretations pave the way for the use of past climates for model evaluation—a practice that we argue should be widely adopted.
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| 9. |
- Tierney, Jessica E., et al.
(author)
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Rainfall regimes of the Green Sahara
- 2017
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In: Science Advances. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 2375-2548. ; 3:1
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- During the Green Sahara period (11,000 to 5000 years before the present), the Sahara desert received high amounts of rainfall, supporting diverse vegetation, permanent lakes, and human populations. Our knowledge of rainfall rates and the spatiotemporal extent of wet conditions has suffered from a lack of continuous sedimentary records. We present a quantitative reconstruction of western Saharan precipitation derived from leaf wax isotopes in marine sediments. Our data indicate that the Green Sahara extended to 31 degrees N and likely ended abruptly. We find evidence for a prolonged pause in Green Sahara conditions 8000 years ago, coincident with a temporary abandonment of occupational sites by Neolithic humans. The rainfall rates inferred from our data are best explained by strong vegetation and dust feedbacks; without these mechanisms, climate models systematically fail to reproduce the Green Sahara. This study suggests that accurate simulations of future climate change in the Sahara and Sahel will require improvements in our ability to simulate vegetation and dust feedbacks.
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