| 1. |
- Cuni-Sanchez, Aida, et al.
(author)
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High aboveground carbon stock of African tropical montane forests
- 2021
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In: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 596:7873, s. 536-542
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Tropical forests store 40–50per cent of terrestrial vegetation carbon. However, spatial variations in aboveground live tree biomass carbon (AGC) stocks remain poorly understood, in particular in tropical montane forests. Owing to climatic and soil changes with increasing elevation, AGC stocks are lower in tropical montane forests compared with lowland forests. Here we assemble and analyse a dataset of structurally intact old-growth forests (AfriMont) spanning 44 montane sites in 12 African countries. We find that montane sites in the AfriMont plot network have a mean AGC stock of 149.4megagrams of carbon per hectare (95% confidence interval 137.1–164.2), which is comparable to lowland forests in the African Tropical Rainforest Observation Network4 and about 70per cent and 32per cent higher than averages from plot networks in montane and lowland forests in the Neotropics, respectively. Notably, our results are two-thirds higher than the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change default values for these forests in Africa8. We find that the low stem density and high abundance of large trees of African lowland forests is mirrored in the montane forests sampled. This carbon store is endangered: we estimate that 0.8 million hectares of old-growth African montane forest have been lost since 2000. We provide country-specific montane forest AGC stock estimates modelled from our plot network to helpto guide forest conservation and reforestation interventions. Our findings highlight the need for conserving these biodiverse and carbon-rich ecosystems.
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| 2. |
- Kim, HyeJin, et al.
(author)
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Towards a better future for biodiversity and people : Modelling Nature Futures
- 2023
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In: Global Environmental Change. - 0959-3780 .- 1872-9495. ; 82
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The Nature Futures Framework (NFF) is a heuristic tool for co-creating positive futures for nature and people. It seeks to open up a diversity of futures through mainly three value perspectives on nature - Nature for Nature, Nature for Society, and Nature as Culture. This paper describes how the NFF can be applied in modelling to support decision-making. First, we describe key considerations for the NFF in developing qualitative and quantitative scenarios: i) multiple value perspectives on nature as a state space where pathways improving nature toward a frontier can be represented, ii) mutually reinforcing key feedbacks of social-ecological systems that are important for nature conservation and human wellbeing, iii) indicators of multiple knowledge systems describing the evolution of complex social-ecological dynamics. We then present three approaches to modelling Nature Futures scenarios in the review, screening, and design phases of policy processes. This paper seeks to facilitate the integration of relational values of nature in models and strengthen modelled linkages across biodiversity, nature's contributions to people, and quality of life.
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| 3. |
- Muscarella, Robert, et al.
(author)
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The global abundance of tree palms
- 2020
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In: Global Ecology and Biogeography. - : Wiley. - 1466-822X .- 1466-8238. ; 29:9, s. 1495-1514
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- AimPalms are an iconic, diverse and often abundant component of tropical ecosystems that provide many ecosystem services. Being monocots, tree palms are evolutionarily, morphologically and physiologically distinct from other trees, and these differences have important consequences for ecosystem services (e.g., carbon sequestration and storage) and in terms of responses to climate change. We quantified global patterns of tree palm relative abundance to help improve understanding of tropical forests and reduce uncertainty about these ecosystems under climate change.LocationTropical and subtropical moist forests.Time periodCurrent.Major taxa studiedPalms (Arecaceae).MethodsWe assembled a pantropical dataset of 2,548 forest plots (covering 1,191 ha) and quantified tree palm (i.e., ≥10 cm diameter at breast height) abundance relative to co‐occurring non‐palm trees. We compared the relative abundance of tree palms across biogeographical realms and tested for associations with palaeoclimate stability, current climate, edaphic conditions and metrics of forest structure.ResultsOn average, the relative abundance of tree palms was more than five times larger between Neotropical locations and other biogeographical realms. Tree palms were absent in most locations outside the Neotropics but present in >80% of Neotropical locations. The relative abundance of tree palms was more strongly associated with local conditions (e.g., higher mean annual precipitation, lower soil fertility, shallower water table and lower plot mean wood density) than metrics of long‐term climate stability. Life‐form diversity also influenced the patterns; palm assemblages outside the Neotropics comprise many non‐tree (e.g., climbing) palms. Finally, we show that tree palms can influence estimates of above‐ground biomass, but the magnitude and direction of the effect require additional work.ConclusionsTree palms are not only quintessentially tropical, but they are also overwhelmingly Neotropical. Future work to understand the contributions of tree palms to biomass estimates and carbon cycling will be particularly crucial in Neotropical forests.
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| 4. |
- Titov, Nickolai, et al.
(author)
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User characteristics and outcomes from a national digital mental health service : an observational study of registrants of the Australian MindSpot Clinic.
- 2020
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In: The Lancet Digital Health. - London, United Kingdom : The Lancet Publishing Group. - 2589-7500. ; 2:11, s. e582-e593
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Interest is growing in digital and telehealth delivery of mental health services, but data are scarce on outcomes in routine care. The federally funded Australian MindSpot Clinic provides online and telephone psychological assessment and treatment services to Australian adults. We aimed to summarise demographic characteristics and treatment outcomes of patients registered with MindSpot over the first 7 years of clinic operation.Methods: We used an observational design to review all patients who registered for assessment with the MindSpot Clinic between Jan 1, 2013, and Dec 31, 2019. We descriptively analysed the demographics, service preferences, and baseline symptoms of patients. Among patients enrolled in a digital treatment course, we evaluated scales of depression (Patient Health Questionnaire-9 [PHQ-9]) and anxiety (Generalized Anxiety Disorder 7-Item Scale [GAD-7]), as primary measures of treatment outcome, from the screening assessment to post-treatment and a 3 month follow-up. The Kessler Psychological Distress 10-Item Plus Scale was also used to assess changes in general distress and disability, and course satisfaction was measured post-treatment.Outcomes: A total of 121 652 screening assessments were started, of which 96 018 (78·9%) were completed. The mean age of patients was 35·7 years (SD 13·8) and 88 702 (72·9%) were women. Based on available assessment data, 36 866 (34·5%) of 106 811 participants had never previously spoken to a health professional about their symptoms, and most people self-reported symptoms of anxiety (88 879 [81·9%] of 108 494) or depression (78 803 [72·6%] of 108 494), either alone or in combination, at baseline. 21 745 patients started treatment in a therapist-guided online course, of whom 14 503 (66·7%) completed treatment (≥four of five lessons). Key trends in service use included an increase in the proportion of people using MindSpot primarily for assessment and information, from 52·6% in 2013 to 66·7% in 2019, while the proportion primarily seeking online treatment decreased, from 42·6% in 2013 to 26·7% in 2019. Effect sizes and percentage changes were large for estimated mean scores on the PHQ-9 and GAD-7 from assessment to post-treatment (PHQ-9, Cohen's d effect size 1·40 [95% CI 1·37-1·43]; and GAD-7, 1·45 [1·42-1·47]) and the 3 month follow-up (PHQ-9, 1·36 [1·34-1·38]; and GAD-7, 1·42 [1·40-1·44]); proportions of patients with reliable symptom deterioration (score increase of ≥6 points [PHQ-9] or ≥5 points [GAD-7]) were low post-treatment (of 13 058 respondents, 184 [1·4%] had symptom deterioration on the PHQ-9 and 282 [2·2%] on the GAD-7); and patient satisfaction rates were high (12 452 [96·6%] of 12 895 respondents would recommend the course and 12 433 [96·7%] of 12 860 reported the course worthwhile). We also observed small improvements in disability following treatment as measured by days out of role.Interpretation: Our findings indicate improvement in psychological symptoms and positive reception among patients receiving online mental health treatment. These results support the addition of digital services such as MindSpot as a component in contemporary national mental health systems.Funding: None.
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| 5. |
- Willcock, Simon, et al.
(author)
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A Continental-Scale Validation of Ecosystem Service Models
- 2019
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In: Ecosystems. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1432-9840 .- 1435-0629. ; 22:8, s. 1902-1917
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Faced with environmental degradation, governments worldwide are developing policies to safeguard ecosystem services (ES). Many ES models exist to support these policies, but they are generally poorly validated, especially at large scales, which undermines their credibility. To address this gap, we describe a study of multiple models of five ES, which we validate at an unprecedented scale against 1675 data points across sub-Saharan Africa. We find that potential ES (biophysical supply of carbon and water) are reasonably well predicted by the existing models. These potential ES models can also be used as inputs to new models for realised ES (use of charcoal, firewood, grazing resources and water), by adding information on human population density. We find that increasing model complexity can improve estimates of both potential and realised ES, suggesting that developing more detailed models of ES will be beneficial. Furthermore, in 85% of cases, human population density alone was as good or a better predictor of realised ES than ES models, suggesting that it is demand, rather than supply that is predominantly determining current patterns of ES use. Our study demonstrates the feasibility of ES model validation, even in data-deficient locations such as sub-Saharan Africa. Our work also shows the clear need for more work on the demand side of ES models, and the importance of model validation in providing a stronger base to support policies which seek to achieve sustainable development in support of human well-being.
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| 6. |
- Willcock, Simon, et al.
(author)
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Do ecosystem service maps and models meet stakeholders' needs? A preliminary survey across sub-Saharan Africa
- 2016
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In: Ecosystem Services. - : Elsevier BV. - 2212-0416 .- 2212-0416. ; 18, s. 110-117
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- To achieve sustainability goals, it is important to incorporate ecosystem service (ES) information into decision-making processes. However, little is known about the correspondence between the needs of ES information users and the data provided by the researcher community. We surveyed stakeholders within sub-Saharan Africa, determining their ES data requirements using a targeted sampling strategy. Of those respondents utilising ES information (> 90%; n = 60), 27% report having sufficient data; with the remainder requiring additional data - particularly at higher spatial resolutions and at multiple points in time. The majority of respondents focus on provisioning and regulating services, particularly food and fresh water supply (both 58%) and climate regulation (49%). Their focus is generally at national scales or below and in accordance with data availability. Among the stakeholders surveyed, we performed a follow-up assessment for a sub-sample of 17 technical experts. The technical experts are unanimous that ES models must be able to incorporate scenarios, and most agree that ES models should be at least 90% accurate. However, relatively coarse-resolution (1-10 km(2)) models are sufficient for many services. To maximise the impact of future research, dynamic, multi-scale datasets on ES must be delivered alongside capacity-building efforts.
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| 7. |
- Willcock, Simon, et al.
(author)
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Ensembles of ecosystem service models can improve accuracy and indicate uncertainty
- 2020
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In: Science of the Total Environment. - : Elsevier BV. - 0048-9697 .- 1879-1026. ; 747
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Many ecosystem services (ES) models exist to support sustainable development decisions. However, most ES studies use only a single modelling framework and, because of a lack of validation data, rarely assess model accuracy for the study area. In line with other research themes which have high model uncertainty, such as climate change, ensembles of ES models may better serve decision-makers by providing more robust and accurate estimates, as well as provide indications of uncertainty when validation data are not available. To illustrate the benefits of an ensemble approach, we highlight the variation between alternative models, demonstrating that there are large geographic regions where decisions based on individual models are not robust. We test if ensembles are more accurate by comparing the ensemble accuracy of multiple models for six ES against validation data across sub-Saharan Africa with the accuracy of individual models. We find that ensembles are better predictors of ES, being 5.0-6.1% more accurate than individual models. We also find that the uncertainty (i.e. variation among constituent models) of the model ensemble is negatively correlated with accuracy and so can be used as a proxy for accuracy when validation is not possible (e.g. in data-deficient areas or when developing scenarios). Since ensembles are more robust, accurate and convey uncertainty, we recommend that ensemble modelling should be more widely implemented within ES science to better support policy choices and implementation.
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| 8. |
- Willcock, Simon, et al.
(author)
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Model ensembles of ecosystem services fill global certainty and capacity gaps
- 2023
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In: Science Advances. - 2375-2548. ; 9:14
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Sustaining ecosystem services (ES) critical to human well-being is hindered by many practitioners lacking access to ES models (“the capacity gap”) or knowledge of the accuracy of available models (“the certainty gap”), especially in the world’s poorer regions. We developed ensembles of multiple models at an unprecedented global scale for five ES of high policy relevance. Ensembles were 2 to 14% more accurate than individual models. Ensemble accuracy was not correlated with proxies for research capacity, indicating that accuracy is distributed equitably across the globe and that countries less able to research ES suffer no accuracy penalty. By making these ES ensembles and associated accuracy estimates freely available, we provide globally consistent ES information that can support policy and decision-making in regions with low data availability or low capacity for implementing complex ES models. Thus, we hope to reduce the capacity and certainty gaps impeding local-to global-scale movement toward ES sustainability.
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