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| 2. |
- Glasbey, JC, et al.
(author)
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- 2021
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| 3. |
- Thomas, HS, et al.
(author)
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- 2019
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| 4. |
- Tabiri, S, et al.
(author)
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- 2021
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- Bravo, L, et al.
(author)
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- 2021
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| 13. |
- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2016
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In: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1459-1544
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.METHODS: We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).FINDINGS: Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.INTERPRETATION: At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.
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| 14. |
- Tobias, Deirdre K, et al.
(author)
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Second international consensus report on gaps and opportunities for the clinical translation of precision diabetes medicine
- 2023
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In: Nature Medicine. - 1546-170X. ; 29:10, s. 2438-2457
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Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Precision medicine is part of the logical evolution of contemporary evidence-based medicine that seeks to reduce errors and optimize outcomes when making medical decisions and health recommendations. Diabetes affects hundreds of millions of people worldwide, many of whom will develop life-threatening complications and die prematurely. Precision medicine can potentially address this enormous problem by accounting for heterogeneity in the etiology, clinical presentation and pathogenesis of common forms of diabetes and risks of complications. This second international consensus report on precision diabetes medicine summarizes the findings from a systematic evidence review across the key pillars of precision medicine (prevention, diagnosis, treatment, prognosis) in four recognized forms of diabetes (monogenic, gestational, type 1, type 2). These reviews address key questions about the translation of precision medicine research into practice. Although not complete, owing to the vast literature on this topic, they revealed opportunities for the immediate or near-term clinical implementation of precision diabetes medicine; furthermore, we expose important gaps in knowledge, focusing on the need to obtain new clinically relevant evidence. Gaps include the need for common standards for clinical readiness, including consideration of cost-effectiveness, health equity, predictive accuracy, liability and accessibility. Key milestones are outlined for the broad clinical implementation of precision diabetes medicine.
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| 15. |
- Ademuyiwa, Adesoji O., et al.
(author)
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Determinants of morbidity and mortality following emergency abdominal surgery in children in low-income and middle-income countries
- 2016
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In: BMJ Global Health. - : BMJ Publishing Group Ltd. - 2059-7908. ; 1:4
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Child health is a key priority on the global health agenda, yet the provision of essential and emergency surgery in children is patchy in resource-poor regions. This study was aimed to determine the mortality risk for emergency abdominal paediatric surgery in low-income countries globally.Methods: Multicentre, international, prospective, cohort study. Self-selected surgical units performing emergency abdominal surgery submitted prespecified data for consecutive children aged <16 years during a 2-week period between July and December 2014. The United Nation's Human Development Index (HDI) was used to stratify countries. The main outcome measure was 30-day postoperative mortality, analysed by multilevel logistic regression.Results: This study included 1409 patients from 253 centres in 43 countries; 282 children were under 2 years of age. Among them, 265 (18.8%) were from low-HDI, 450 (31.9%) from middle-HDI and 694 (49.3%) from high-HDI countries. The most common operations performed were appendectomy, small bowel resection, pyloromyotomy and correction of intussusception. After adjustment for patient and hospital risk factors, child mortality at 30 days was significantly higher in low-HDI (adjusted OR 7.14 (95% CI 2.52 to 20.23), p<0.001) and middle-HDI (4.42 (1.44 to 13.56), p=0.009) countries compared with high-HDI countries, translating to 40 excess deaths per 1000 procedures performed.Conclusions: Adjusted mortality in children following emergency abdominal surgery may be as high as 7 times greater in low-HDI and middle-HDI countries compared with high-HDI countries. Effective provision of emergency essential surgery should be a key priority for global child health agendas.
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| 21. |
- Perlmann, P, et al.
(author)
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Immunoglobulin E, a pathogenic factor in Plasmodium falciparum malaria
- 1997
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In: Infection and immunity. - : American Society for Microbiology. - 0019-9567 .- 1098-5522. ; 65:1, s. 116-121
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Most children and adults living in areas where the endemicity of Plasmodium falciparum malaria is high have significantly elevated levels of both total immunoglobulin E (IgE) and IgE antimalarial antibodies in blood. This elevation is highest in patients with cerebral malaria, suggesting a pathogenic role for this immunoglobulin isotype. In this study, we show that IgE elevation may also be seen in severe malaria without cerebral involvement and parallels an elevation of tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF). IgE-containing serum from malaria immune donors was added to tissue culture plates coated with rabbit anti-human IgE antibodies or with P. falciparum antigen. IgE-anti-IgE complexes as well as antigen-binding IgE antibodies induced TNF release from peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC). Nonmalaria control sera with no IgE elevation induced significantly less of this cytokine, and the TNF-inducing capacity of malaria sera was also strongly reduced by passing them over anti-IgE Sepharose columns. The cells giving rise to TNF were adherent PBMC. The release of this cytokine probably reflects cross-linking of their low-affinity receptors for IgE (CD23) by IgE-containing immune complexes known to give rise to monocyte activation via the NO transduction pathway. In line with this, adherent monocytic cells exposed to IgE complexes displayed increased expression of CD23. As the malaria sera contained IgG anti-IgE antibodies, such complexes probably also play a role in the induction of TNF in vivo. Overproduction of TNF is considered a major pathogenic mechanism responsible for fever and tissue lesions in P. falciparum malaria. This overproduction is generally assumed to reflect a direct stimulation of effector cells by certain parasite-derived toxins. Our results suggest that IgE elevation constitutes yet another important mechanism involved in excessive TNF induction in this disease.
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| 24. |
- Ashenafi, S, et al.
(author)
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Daily Nutritional Supplementation with Vitamin D₃ and Phenylbutyrate to Treatment-Naïve HIV Patients Tested in a Randomized Placebo-Controlled Trial
- 2019
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In: Nutrients. - : MDPI AG. - 2072-6643. ; 11:1
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Poor nutritional status is common among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected patients including vitamin D (vitD3) deficiency. We conducted a double-blinded, randomized, and placebo-controlled trial in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, to investigate if daily nutritional supplementation with vitD3 (5000 IU) and phenylbutyrate (PBA, 2 × 500 mg) could mediate beneficial effects in treatment-naïve HIV patients. Primary endpoint: the change in plasma HIV-1 comparing week 0 to 16 using modified intention-to-treat (mITT, n = 197) and per-protocol (n = 173) analyses. Secondary endpoints: longitudinal HIV viral load, T cell counts, body mass index (BMI), middle-upper-arm circumference (MUAC), and 25(OH)D3 levels in plasma. Baseline characteristics were detectable viral loads (median 7897 copies/mL), low CD4+ (median 410 cells/µL), and elevated CD8+ (median 930 cells/µL) T cell counts. Most subjects were vitD3 deficient at enrolment, but a gradual and significant improvement of vitD3 status was demonstrated in the vitD3 + PBA group compared with placebo (p < 0.0001) from week 0 to 16 (median 37.5 versus 115.5 nmol/L). No significant changes in HIV viral load, CD4+ or CD8+ T cell counts, BMI or MUAC could be detected. Clinical adverse events were similar in both groups. Daily vitD3 + PBA for 16 weeks was well-tolerated and effectively improved vitD3 status but did not reduce viral load, restore peripheral T cell counts or improve BMI or MUAC in HIV patients with slow progressive disease. Clinicaltrials.gov NCT01702974.
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| 27. |
- Reitsma, Marissa B., et al.
(author)
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Smoking prevalence and attributable disease burden in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015 : a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2017
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In: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 389:10082, s. 1885-1906
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background The scale-up of tobacco control, especially after the adoption of the Framework Convention for Tobacco Control, is a major public health success story. Nonetheless, smoking remains a leading risk for early death and disability worldwide, and therefore continues to require sustained political commitment. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) offers a robust platform through which global, regional, and national progress toward achieving smoking-related targets can be assessed. Methods We synthesised 2818 data sources with spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and produced estimates of daily smoking prevalence by sex, age group, and year for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We analysed 38 risk-outcome pairs to generate estimates of smoking-attributable mortality and disease burden, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). We then performed a cohort analysis of smoking prevalence by birth-year cohort to better understand temporal age patterns in smoking. We also did a decomposition analysis, in which we parsed out changes in all-cause smoking-attributable DALYs due to changes in population growth, population ageing, smoking prevalence, and risk-deleted DALY rates. Finally, we explored results by level of development using the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Worldwide, the age-standardised prevalence of daily smoking was 25.0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 24.2-25.7) for men and 5.4% (5.1-5.7) for women, representing 28.4% (25.8-31.1) and 34.4% (29.4-38.6) reductions, respectively, since 1990. A greater percentage of countries and territories achieved significant annualised rates of decline in smoking prevalence from 1990 to 2005 than in between 2005 and 2015; however, only four countries had significant annualised increases in smoking prevalence between 2005 and 2015 (Congo [Brazzaville] and Azerbaijan for men and Kuwait and Timor-Leste for women). In 2015, 11.5% of global deaths (6.4 million [95% UI 5.7-7.0 million]) were attributable to smoking worldwide, of which 52.2% took place in four countries (China, India, the USA, and Russia). Smoking was ranked among the five leading risk factors by DALYs in 109 countries and territories in 2015, rising from 88 geographies in 1990. In terms of birth cohorts, male smoking prevalence followed similar age patterns across levels of SDI, whereas much more heterogeneity was found in age patterns for female smokers by level of development. While smoking prevalence and risk-deleted DALY rates mostly decreased by sex and SDI quintile, population growth, population ageing, or a combination of both, drove rises in overall smoking-attributable DALYs in low-SDI to middle-SDI geographies between 2005 and 2015. Interpretation The pace of progress in reducing smoking prevalence has been heterogeneous across geographies, development status, and sex, and as highlighted by more recent trends, maintaining past rates of decline should not be taken for granted, especially in women and in low-SDI to middle-SDI countries. Beyond the effect of the tobacco industry and societal mores, a crucial challenge facing tobacco control initiatives is that demographic forces are poised to heighten smoking's global toll, unless progress in preventing initiation and promoting cessation can be substantially accelerated. Greater success in tobacco control is possible but requires effective, comprehensive, and adequately implemented and enforced policies, which might in turn require global and national levels of political commitment beyond what has been achieved during the past 25 years.
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| 29. |
- Worku, Z. A., et al.
(author)
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Modelling and understanding powder flow properties and compactability of selected active pharmaceutical ingredients, excipients and physical mixtures from critical material properties
- 2017
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In: International Journal of Pharmaceutics. - : Elsevier. - 0378-5173 .- 1873-3476. ; 531:1, s. 191-204
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The development of solid dosage forms and manufacturing processes are governed by complex physical properties of the powder and the type of pharmaceutical unit operation the manufacturing processes employs. Suitable powder flow properties and compactability are crucial bulk level properties for tablet manufacturing by direct compression. It is also generally agreed that small scale powder flow measurements can be useful to predict large scale production failure. In this study, predictive multilinear regression models were effectively developed from critical material properties to estimate static powder flow parameters from particle size distribution data for a single component and for binary systems. A multilinear regression model, which was successfully developed for ibuprofen, also efficiently predicted the powder flow properties for a range of batches of two other active pharmaceutical ingredients processed by the same manufacturing route. The particle size distribution also affected the compactability of ibuprofen, and the scope of this work will be extended to the development of predictive multivariate models for compactability, in a similar manner to the approach successfully applied to flow properties.
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