| 1. |
- Gakidou, E., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
- 2017
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Ingår i: Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 390:10100, s. 1345-1422
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of risk factor exposure and attributable burden of disease. By providing estimates over a long time series, this study can monitor risk exposure trends critical to health surveillance and inform policy debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2016. This study included 481 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk (RR) and exposure estimates from 22 717 randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources, according to the GBD 2016 source counting methods. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. Finally, we explored four drivers of trends in attributable burden: population growth, population ageing, trends in risk exposure, and all other factors combined. Findings Since 1990, exposure increased significantly for 30 risks, did not change significantly for four risks, and decreased significantly for 31 risks. Among risks that are leading causes of burden of disease, child growth failure and household air pollution showed the most significant declines, while metabolic risks, such as body-mass index and high fasting plasma glucose, showed significant increases. In 2016, at Level 3 of the hierarchy, the three leading risk factors in terms of attributable DALYs at the global level for men were smoking (124.1 million DALYs [95% UI 111.2 million to 137.0 million]), high systolic blood pressure (122.2 million DALYs [110.3 million to 133.3 million], and low birthweight and short gestation (83.0 million DALYs [78.3 million to 87.7 million]), and for women, were high systolic blood pressure (89.9 million DALYs [80.9 million to 98.2 million]), high body-mass index (64.8 million DALYs [44.4 million to 87.6 million]), and high fasting plasma glucose (63.8 million DALYs [53.2 million to 76.3 million]). In 2016 in 113 countries, the leading risk factor in terms of attributable DALYs was a metabolic risk factor. Smoking remained among the leading five risk factors for DALYs for 109 countries, while low birthweight and short gestation was the leading risk factor for DALYs in 38 countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. In terms of important drivers of change in trends of burden attributable to risk factors, between 2006 and 2016 exposure to risks explains an 9.3% (6.9-11.6) decline in deaths and a 10.8% (8.3-13.1) decrease in DALYs at the global level, while population ageing accounts for 14.9% (12.7-17.5) of deaths and 6.2% (3.9-8.7) of DALYs, and population growth for 12.4% (10.1-14.9) of deaths and 12.4% (10.1-14.9) of DALYs. The largest contribution of trends in risk exposure to disease burden is seen between ages 1 year and 4 years, where a decline of 27.3% (24.9-29.7) of the change in DALYs between 2006 and 2016 can be attributed to declines in exposure to risks. Interpretation Increasingly detailed understanding of the trends in risk exposure and the RRs for each risk-outcome pair provide insights into both the magnitude of health loss attributable to risks and how modification of risk exposure has contributed to health trends. Metabolic risks warrant particular policy attention, due to their large contribution to global disease burden, increasing trends, and variable patterns across countries at the same level of development. GBD 2016 findings show that, while it has huge potential to improve health, risk modification has played a relatively small part in the past decade. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
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| 2. |
- Fullman, N., et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
- 2017
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Ingår i: Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 390:10100, s. 1423-1459
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The UN's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are grounded in the global ambition of "leaving no one behind". Understanding today's gains and gaps for the health-related SDGs is essential for decision makers as they aim to improve the health of populations. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016), we measured 37 of the 50 health-related SDG indicators over the period 1990-2016 for 188 countries, and then on the basis of these past trends, we projected indicators to 2030. Methods We used standardised GBD 2016 methods to measure 37 health-related indicators from 1990 to 2016, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2015. We substantially revised the universal health coverage (UHC) measure, which focuses on coverage of essential health services, to also represent personal health-care access and quality for several non-communicable diseases. We transformed each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2.5th percentile estimated between 1990 and 2030, and 100 as the 97.5th percentile during that time. An index representing all 37 health-related SDG indicators was constructed by taking the geometric mean of scaled indicators by target. On the basis of past trends, we produced projections of indicator values, using a weighted average of the indicator and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2016 with weights for each annual rate of change based on out-of-sample validity. 24 of the currently measured health-related SDG indicators have defined SDG targets, against which we assessed attainment. Findings Globally, the median health-related SDG index was 56.7 (IQR 31.9-66.8) in 2016 and country-level performance markedly varied, with Singapore (86.8, 95% uncertainty interval 84.6-88.9), Iceland (86.0, 84.1-87.6), and Sweden (85.6, 81.8-87.8) having the highest levels in 2016 and Afghanistan (10.9, 9.6-11.9), the Central African Republic (11.0, 8.8-13.8), and Somalia (11.3, 9.5-13.1) recording the lowest. Between 2000 and 2016, notable improvements in the UHC index were achieved by several countries, including Cambodia, Rwanda, Equatorial Guinea, Laos, Turkey, and China; however, a number of countries, such as Lesotho and the Central African Republic, but also high-income countries, such as the USA, showed minimal gains. Based on projections of past trends, the median number of SDG targets attained in 2030 was five (IQR 2-8) of the 24 defined targets currently measured. Globally, projected target attainment considerably varied by SDG indicator, ranging from more than 60% of countries projected to reach targets for under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria, to less than 5% of countries projected to achieve targets linked to 11 indicator targets, including those for childhood overweight, tuberculosis, and road injury mortality. For several of the health-related SDGs, meeting defined targets hinges upon substantially faster progress than what most countries have achieved in the past. Interpretation GBD 2016 provides an updated and expanded evidence base on where the world currently stands in terms of the health-related SDGs. Our improved measure of UHC offers a basis to monitor the expansion of health services necessary to meet the SDGs. Based on past rates of progress, many places are facing challenges in meeting defined health-related SDG targets, particularly among countries that are the worst off. In view of the early stages of SDG implementation, however, opportunity remains to take actions to accelerate progress, as shown by the catalytic effects of adopting the Millennium Development Goals after 2000. With the SDGs' broader, bolder development agenda, multisectoral commitments and investments are vital to make the health-related SDGs within reach of all populations. Copyright The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article published under the CC BY 4.0 license.
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| 3. |
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| 4. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 5. |
- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2016
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1459-1544
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.METHODS: We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).FINDINGS: Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.INTERPRETATION: At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.
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| 6. |
- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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| 7. |
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| 8. |
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| 9. |
- Geach, J.E., et al.
(författare)
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The SCUBA-2 Cosmology Legacy Survey: 850 μm maps, catalogues and number counts
- 2017
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Ingår i: Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0035-8711 .- 1365-2966. ; 465:2, s. 1789-1806
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present a catalogue of similar to 3000 submillimetre sources detected (>= 3.5 sigma) at 850 mu m over similar to 5 deg(2) surveyed as part of the James Clerk Maxwell Telescope (JCMT) SCUBA-2 Cosmology Legacy Survey (S2CLS). This is the largest survey of its kind at 850 mu m, increasing the sample size of 850 mu m selected submillimetre galaxies by an order of magnitude. The wide 850 mu m survey component of S2CLS covers the extragalactic fields: UKIDSS-UDS, COSMOS, Akari-NEP, Extended Groth Strip, Lockman Hole North, SSA22 and GOODS-North. The average 1s depth of S2CLS is 1.2 mJy beam(-1), approaching the SCUBA-2 850 mu m confusion limit, which we determine to be sigma(c) approximate to 0.8 mJy beam(-1). We measure the 850 mu m number counts, reducing the Poisson errors on the differential counts to approximately 4 per cent at S-850 approximate to 3 mJy. With several independent fields, we investigate field-to-field variance, finding that the number counts on 0.5 degrees-1 degrees scales are generally within 50 per cent of the S2CLS mean for S-850 > 3 mJy, with scatter consistent with the Poisson and estimated cosmic variance uncertainties, although there is a marginal (2 sigma) density enhancement in GOODS-North. The observed counts are in reasonable agreement with recent phenomenological and semi-analytic models, although determining the shape of the faint-end slope (S-850 < 3 mJy) remains a key test. The large solid angle of S2CLS allows us to measure the bright-end counts: at S-850 > 10 mJy there are approximately 10 sources per square degree, and we detect the distinctive up-turn in the number counts indicative of the detection of local sources of 850 mu m emission
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| 10. |
- Casey, Caitlin M., et al.
(författare)
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Physical Characterization of an Unlensed, Dusty Star-forming Galaxy at z = 5.85
- 2019
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - : American Astronomical Society. - 1538-4357 .- 0004-637X. ; 887:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present a physical characterization of MM J100026.36+021527.9 (a.k.a. "Mambo-9"), a dusty star-forming galaxy (DSFG) at z = 5.850 ± 0.001. This is the highest-redshift unlensed DSFG (and fourth most distant overall) found to date and is the first source identified in a new 2 mm blank-field map in the COSMOS field. Though identified in prior samples of DSFGs at 850 μm to 1.2 mm with unknown redshift, the detection at 2 mm prompted further follow-up as it indicated a much higher probability that the source was likely to sit at z > 4. Deep observations from the Atacama Large Millimeter and submillimeter Array (ALMA) presented here confirm the redshift through the secure detection of 12CO(J = 6→5) and p-H2O (21,1 → 20,2). Mambo-9 is composed of a pair of galaxies separated by 6 kpc with corresponding star formation rates of 590 M o˙ yr-1 and 220 M o˙ yr-1, total molecular hydrogen gas mass of (1.7 ± 0.4) × 1011 M o˙, dust mass of (1.3 ± 0.3) × 109 M o˙, and stellar mass of (3.2-1.5+1.0) × 109 M o˙. The total halo mass, (3.3 ± 0.8) × 1012 M o˙, is predicted to exceed 1015 M o˙ by z = 0. The system is undergoing a merger-driven starburst that will increase the stellar mass of the system tenfold in τ depl = 40-80 Myr, converting its large molecular gas reservoir (gas fraction of 96-2+1) into stars. Mambo-9 evaded firm spectroscopic identification for a decade, following a pattern that has emerged for some of the highest-redshift DSFGs found. And yet, the systematic identification of unlensed DSFGs like Mambo-9 is key to measuring the global contribution of obscured star formation to the star formation rate density at z ⪆ 4, the formation of the first massive galaxies, and the formation of interstellar dust at early times (≲1 Gyr).
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| 11. |
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| 12. |
- van der Plas, F., et al.
(författare)
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Continental mapping of forest ecosystem functions reveals a high but unrealised potential for forest multifunctionality
- 2018
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Ingår i: Ecology Letters. - : Wiley. - 1461-023X .- 1461-0248. ; 21:1, s. 31-42
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Humans require multiple services from ecosystems, but it is largely unknown whether trade-offs between ecosystem functions prevent the realisation of high ecosystem multifunctionality across spatial scales. Here, we combined a comprehensive dataset (28 ecosystem functions measured on 209 forest plots) with a forest inventory dataset (105,316 plots) to extrapolate and map relationships between various ecosystem multifunctionality measures across Europe. These multifunctionality measures reflected different management objectives, related to timber production, climate regulation and biodiversity conservation/recreation. We found that trade-offs among them were rare across Europe, at both local and continental scales. This suggests a high potential for win-win' forest management strategies, where overall multifunctionality is maximised. However, across sites, multifunctionality was on average 45.8-49.8% below maximum levels and not necessarily highest in protected areas. Therefore, using one of the most comprehensive assessments so far, our study suggests a high but largely unrealised potential for management to promote multifunctional forests.
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| 13. |
- Zavala, J. A., et al.
(författare)
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The Evolution of the IR Luminosity Function and Dust-obscured Star Formation over the Past 13 Billion Years
- 2021
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - : American Astronomical Society. - 1538-4357 .- 0004-637X. ; 909:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present the first results from the Mapping Obscuration to Reionization with ALMA (MORA) survey, the largest Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA) blank-field contiguous survey to date (184 arcmin(2)) and the only at 2 mm to search for dusty star-forming galaxies (DSFGs). We use the 13 sources detected above 5 sigma to estimate the first ALMA galaxy number counts at this wavelength. These number counts are then combined with the state-of-the-art galaxy number counts at 1.2 and 3 mm and with a backward evolution model to place constraints on the evolution of the IR luminosity function and dust-obscured star formation in the past 13 billion years. Our results suggest a steep redshift evolution on the space density of DSFGs and confirm the flattening of the IR luminosity function at faint luminosities, with a slope of alpha(LF) = -0.42(-0.04)(+0.02). We conclude that the dust-obscured component, which peaks at z approximate to 2-2.5, has dominated the cosmic history of star formation for the past similar to 12 billion years, back to z similar to 4. At z = 5, the dust-obscured star formation is estimated to be similar to 35% of the total star formation rate density and decreases to 25%-20% at z = 6-7, implying a minor contribution of dusten-shrouded star formation in the first billion years of the universe. With the dust-obscured star formation history constrained up to the end of the epoch of reionization, our results provide a benchmark to test galaxy formation models, to study the galaxy mass assembly history, and to understand the dust and metal enrichment of the universe at early times.
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| 14. |
- Bejarano, J., et al.
(författare)
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Nanoparticles for diagnosis and therapy of atherosclerosis and myocardial infarction: evolution toward prospective theranostic approaches
- 2018
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Ingår i: Theranostics. - : Ivyspring International Publisher. - 1838-7640. ; 8:17, s. 4710-4732
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Cardiovascular diseases are the leading cause of death worldwide. Despite preventive efforts, early detection of atherosclerosis, the common pathophysiological mechanism underlying cardiovascular diseases remains elusive, and overt coronary artery disease or myocardial infarction is often the first clinical manifestation. Nanoparticles represent a novel strategy for prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of atherosclerosis, and new multifunctional nanoparticles with combined diagnostic and therapeutic capacities hold the promise for theranostic approaches to this disease. This review focuses on the development of nanosystems for therapy and diagnosis of subclinical atherosclerosis, coronary artery disease, and myocardial infarction and the evolution of nanosystems as theranostic tools. We also discuss the use of nanoparticles in noninvasive imaging, targeted drug delivery, photothermal therapies together with the challenges faced by nanosystems during clinical translation.
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| 15. |
- Finkel, Deborah, et al.
(författare)
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Financial strain moderates genetic influences on self-rated health : support for diathesis–stress model of gene–environment interplay
- 2022
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Ingår i: Biodemography and Social Biology. - : Taylor & Francis. - 1948-5565 .- 1948-5573. ; 67:1, s. 58-70
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Data from the Interplay of Genes and Environment across Multiple Studies (IGEMS) consortium were used to examine predictions of different models of gene-by-environment interaction to understand how genetic variance in self-rated health (SRH) varies at different levels of financial strain. A total of 11,359 individuals from 10 twin studies in Australia, Sweden, and the United States contributed relevant data, including 2,074 monozygotic and 2,623 dizygotic twin pairs. Age ranged from 22 to 98 years, with a mean age of 61.05 (SD = 13.24). A factor model was used to create a harmonized measure of financial strain across studies and items. Twin analyses of genetic and environmental variance for SRH incorporating age, age2, sex, and financial strain moderators indicated significant financial strain moderation of genetic influences on self-rated health. Moderation results did not differ across sex or country. Genetic variance for SRH increased as financial strain increased, matching the predictions of the diathesis–stress and social comparison models for components of variance. Under these models, environmental improvements would be expected to reduce genetically based health disparities.
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| 16. |
- Hammen, V. C., et al.
(författare)
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Establishment of a cross-European field site network in the ALARM project for assessing large-scale changes in biodiversity
- 2010
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Ingår i: Environmental Monitoring & Assessment. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1573-2959 .- 0167-6369. ; 164:1-4, s. 337-348
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The field site network (FSN) plays a central role in conducting joint research within all Assessing Large-scale Risks for biodiversity with tested Methods (ALARM) modules and provides a mechanism for integrating research on different topics in ALARM on the same site for measuring multiple impacts on biodiversity. The network covers most European climates and biogeographic regions, from Mediterranean through central European and boreal to subarctic. The project links databases with the European-wide field site network FSN, including geographic information system (GIS)-based information to characterise the test location for ALARM researchers for joint on-site research. Maps are provided in a standardised way and merged with other site-specific information. The application of GIS for these field sites and the information management promotes the use of the FSN for research and to disseminate the results. We conclude that ALARM FSN sites together with other research sites in Europe jointly could be used as a future backbone for research proposals.
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| 17. |
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| 18. |
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| 19. |
- Cárdenas-Cantú, Eduardo, et al.
(författare)
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Molecular Basis of Pterygium Development.
- 2016
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Ingår i: Seminars in Ophthalmology. - : Informa UK Limited. - 0882-0538 .- 1744-5205. ; 31:6, s. 567-83
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Pterygium pathogenesis is mainly related to UV light exposure. However, the exact mechanisms by which it is formed have not been elucidated. Clinical advances in surgical treatment use conjunctival autografts and amniotic membranes in combination with adjuvant therapies, including mitomycin C, β-radiation, and 5-fluoroacil, to reduce recurrence. Several studies aim to unveil the molecular mechanisms underlying pterygium growth and proliferation. They demonstrate the role of different factors, such as viruses, oxidative stress, DNA methylation, apoptotic and oncogenic proteins, loss of heterozygosity, microsatellite instability, inflammatory mediators, extracellular matrix modulators, lymphangiogenesis, cell epithelial-mesenchymal transition, and alterations in cholesterol metabolism in pterygium development. Understanding the molecular basis of pterygium provides new potential therapeutic targets for its prevention and elimination. This review focuses on providing a broad overview of what is currently known regarding molecular mechanisms of pterygium pathogenesis.
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| 20. |
- da Cunha, E., et al.
(författare)
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Measurements of the Dust Properties in z similar or equal to 1-3 Submillimeter Galaxies with ALMA
- 2021
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - : American Astronomical Society. - 1538-4357 .- 0004-637X. ; 919:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA) 2 mm continuum observations of a complete and unbiased sample of 99 870 mu m selected submillimeter galaxies (SMGs) in the Extended Chandra Deep Field South (ALESS). Our observations of each SMG reach average sensitivities of 53 mu Jy beam(-1). We measure the flux densities for 70 sources, for which we obtain a typical 870 mu m-to-2 mm flux ratio of 14 +/- 5. We do not find a redshift dependence of this flux ratio, which would be expected if the dust emission properties of our SMGs were the same at all redshifts. By combining our ALMA measurements with existing Herschel/SPIRE observations, we construct a (biased) subset of 27 galaxies for which the cool dust emission is sufficiently well sampled to obtain precise constraints on their dust properties using simple isothermal models. Thanks to our new 2 mm observations, the dust emissivity index is well constrained and robust against different dust opacity assumptions. The median dust emissivity index of our SMGs is beta similar or equal to 1.9 +/- 0.4, consistent with the emissivity index of dust in the Milky Way and other local and high-redshift galaxies, as well as classical dust-grain model predictions. We also find a negative correlation between the dust temperature and beta, similar to low-redshift observational and theoretical studies. Our results indicate that beta similar or equal to 2 in high-redshift dusty star-forming galaxies, implying little evolution in dust-grain properties between our SMGs and local dusty galaxy samples, and suggesting that these high-mass and high-metallicity galaxies have dust reservoirs driven by grain growth in their interstellar medium.
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| 21. |
- Gomez-Vargas, G. A., et al.
(författare)
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Dark matter implications of Fermi-LAT measurement of anisotropies in the diffuse gamma-ray background
- 2014
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Ingår i: Nuclear Instruments and Methods in Physics Research Section A. - : Elsevier BV. - 0168-9002 .- 1872-9576. ; 742, s. 149-153
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The detailed origin of the diffuse gamma-ray background is still unknown. However, the contribution of unresolved sources is expected to induce small-scale anisotropies in this emission, which may provide a way to identify and constrain the properties of its contributors. Recent studies have predicted the contributions to the angular power spectrum (APS) from extragalactic and galactic dark matter (DM) annihilation or decay. The Fermi-LAT collaboration reported detection of angular power with a significance larger than 3 sigma in the energy range from 1 GeV to 10 GeV on 22 months of data (Ackermann et al., 2012 [2]). For these preliminary results the already published Fermi-LAT APS measurements (Ackermann et al., 2012 [2]) are compared to the accurate predictions for DM anisotropies from state-of-the-art cosmological simulations as presented in Fornasa et at (2013) [1] to derive constraints on different DM candidates.
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| 22. |
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| 23. |
- Kambach, S., et al.
(författare)
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How do trees respond to species mixing in experimental compared to observational studies?
- 2019
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Ingår i: Ecology and Evolution. - : Wiley. - 2045-7758. ; 9:19, s. 11254-11265
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- For decades, ecologists have investigated the effects of tree species diversity on tree productivity at different scales and with different approaches ranging from observational to experimental study designs. Using data from five European national forest inventories (16,773 plots), six tree species diversity experiments (584 plots), and six networks of comparative plots (169 plots), we tested whether tree species growth responses to species mixing are consistent and therefore transferrable between those different research approaches. Our results confirm the general positive effect of tree species mixing on species growth (16% on average) but we found no consistency in species-specific responses to mixing between any of the three approaches, even after restricting comparisons to only those plots that shared similar mixtures compositions and forest types. These findings highlight the necessity to consider results from different research approaches when selecting species mixtures that should maximize positive forest biodiversity and functioning relationships.
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| 24. |
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| 25. |
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| 26. |
- Manning, Sinclaire M., et al.
(författare)
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Characterization of Two 2 mm detected Optically Obscured Dusty Star-forming Galaxies
- 2022
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - : American Astronomical Society. - 1538-4357 .- 0004-637X. ; 925:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The 2 mm Mapping Obscuration to Reionization with ALMA (MORA) Survey was designed to detect high-redshift (z greater than or similar to 4), massive, dusty star-forming galaxies (DSFGs). Here we present two likely high-redshift sources, identified in the survey, whose physical characteristics are consistent with a class of optical/near-infrared (OIR)-invisible DSFGs found elsewhere in the literature. We first perform a rigorous analysis of all available photometric data to fit spectral energy distributions and estimate redshifts before deriving physical properties based on our findings. Our results suggest the two galaxies, called MORA-5 and MORA-9, represent two extremes of the "OIR-dark" class of DSFGs. MORA-5 (z(phot) = 4.3(-1.3)(+1.5)) is a significantly more active starburst with a star formation rate (SFR) of 830(-190)(+340) M-circle dot yr(-1) compared to MORA-9 (z(phot) = 4.3(-1.0)(+1.3)), whose SFR is a modest 200(-60)(+250) M-circle dot yr(-1). Based on the stellar masses (M-star approximate to 10(10-11) M-circle dot), space density (n similar to (5 +/- 2) x 10(-6) Mpc(-3), which incorporates two other spectroscopically confirmed OIR-dark DSFGs in the MORA sample at z = 4.6 and z = 5.9), and gas depletion timescales (<1 Gyr) of these sources, we find evidence supporting the theory that OIR-dark DSFGs are the progenitors of recently discovered 3 < z < 4 massive quiescent galaxies.
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| 27. |
- Mitsuhashi, Ikki, et al.
(författare)
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SERENADE. II. An ALMA Multiband Dust Continuum Analysis of 28 Galaxies at 5
- 2024
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - 1538-4357 .- 0004-637X. ; 971:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present an analysis of the Atacama Large Millimeter-submillimeter Array (ALMA) multiband dust continuum observations for 28 spectroscopically confirmed bright Lyman break galaxies at 5 lt; z lt; 8. Our sample consists of 11 galaxies at z ∼ 6 newly observed in our ALMA program, which substantially increases the number of 5 lt; z lt; 8 galaxies with both rest-frame 88 and 158 μm continuum observations, allowing us to simultaneously measure the IR luminosity and dust temperature for a statistical sample of z ≳ 5 galaxies for the first time. We derive the relationship between the ultraviolet (UV) slope (β UV) and infrared excess (IRX) for the z ∼ 6 galaxies, and find a shallower IRX-β UV relation compared to the previous results at z ∼ 2-4. Based on the IRX-β UV relation consistent with our results and the β UV-M UV relation including fainter galaxies in the literature, we find a limited contribution of the dust-obscured star formation to the total star formation rate density, ∼30% at z ∼ 6. Our measurements of the dust temperature at z ∼ 6-7, T dust = 40.9 − 9.1 + 10.0 K on average, support a gentle increase of T dust from z = 0 to z ∼ 6-7. Using an analytic model with parameters consistent with recent James Webb Space Telescope results, we discuss that the observed redshift evolution of the dust temperature can be reproduced by an ∼0.6 dex decrease in the gas depletion timescale and ∼0.4 dex decrease in the metallicity. The variety of T dust observed at high redshifts can also be naturally explained by scatters around the star formation main sequence and average mass-metallicity relation including an extremely high dust temperature of T dust gt; 80 K observed in a galaxy at z = 8.3.
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| 28. |
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| 29. |
- Pahlen, Shandell, et al.
(författare)
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Age-moderation of genetic and environmental contributions to cognitive functioning in mid- and late-life for specific cognitive abilities
- 2018
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Ingår i: Intelligence. - : Elsevier. - 0160-2896 .- 1873-7935. ; 68, s. 70-81
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Age moderation of genetic and environmental contributions to Digits Forward, Digits Backward, Block Design, Symbol Digit, Vocabulary, and Synonyms was investigated in a sample of 14,534 twins aged 26 to 98 years. The Interplay of Genes and Environment across Multiple Studies (IGEMS) consortium contributed the sample, which represents nine studies from three countries (USA, Denmark, and Sweden). Average test performance was lower in successively older age groups for all tests. Significant age moderation of additive genetic, shared environmental, and non-shared environmental variance components was observed, but the pattern varied by test. The genetic contribution to phenotypic variance across age was smaller for both Digit Span tests, greater for Synonyms, and stable for Block Design and Symbol Digit. The non-shared environmental contribution was greater with age for the Digit Span tests and Block Design, while the shared environmental component was small for all tests, often more so with age. Vocabulary showed similar age-moderation patterns as Synonyms, but these effects were nonsignificant. Findings are discussed in the context of theories of cognitive aging.
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| 30. |
- Sakr, Y, et al.
(författare)
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Effects of hydroxyethyl starch administration on renal function in critically ill patients
- 2007
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Ingår i: British Journal of Anaesthesia. - : Elsevier BV. - 0007-0912 .- 1471-6771. ; 98:2, s. 216-224
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: The influence of hydroxyethyl starch (HES) solutions on renal function is controversial. We investigated the effect of HES administration on renal function in critically ill patients enrolled in a large multicentre observational European study. METHODS: All adult patients admitted to the 198 participating intensive care units (ICUs) during a 15-day period were enrolled. Prospectively collected data included daily fluid administration, urine output, sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score, serum creatinine levels, and the need for renal replacement therapy (RRT) during the ICU stay. RESULTS: Of 3147 patients, 1075 (34%) received HES. Patients who received HES were older [mean (SD): 62 (SD 17) vs 60 (18) years, P = 0.022], more likely to be surgical admissions, had a higher incidence of haematological malignancy and heart failure, higher SAPS II [40.0 (17.0) vs 34.7 (16.9), P < 0.001] and SOFA [6.2 (3.7) vs 5.0 (3.9), P < 0.001] scores, and less likely to be receiving RRT (2 vs 4%, P < 0.001) than those who did not receive HES. The renal SOFA score increased significantly over the ICU stay independent of the type of fluid administered. Although more patients who received HES needed RRT than non-HES patients (11 vs 9%, P = 0.006), HES administration was not associated with an increased risk for subsequent RRT in a multivariable analysis [odds ratio (OR): 0.417, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.05-3.27, P = 0.406]. Sepsis (OR: 2.03, 95% CI: 1.37-3.02, P < 0.001), cardiovascular failure (OR: 6.88, 95% CI: 4.49-10.56, P < 0.001), haematological cancer (OR: 2.83, 95% CI: 1.28-6.25, P = 0.01), and baseline renal SOFA scores > 1 (P < 0.01 for renal SOFA 2, 3, and 4 with renal SOFA = 0 as a reference) were all associated with a higher need for RRT. CONCLUSIONS: In this observational study, haematological cancer, the presence of sepsis, cardiovascular failure, and baseline renal function as assessed by the SOFA score were independent risk factors for the subsequent need for RRT in the ICU. The administration of HES had no influence on renal function or the need for RRT in the ICU.
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| 31. |
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| 32. |
- Zavala, E., et al.
(författare)
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Adaptive monitoring for autonomous vehicles using the HAFLoop architecture
- 2021
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Ingår i: Enterprise Information Systems. - : Informa UK Limited. - 1751-7575 .- 1751-7583. ; 15:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Current Self-Adaptive Systems (SASs) such as Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) are systems able to deal with highly complex contexts. However, due to the use of static feedback loops they are not able to respond to unanticipated situations such as sensor faults. Previously, we have proposed HAFLoop (Highly Adaptive Feedback control Loop), an architecture for adaptive loops in SASs. In this paper, we incorporate HAFLoop into an AV solution that leverages machine learning techniques to determine the best monitoring strategy at runtime. We have evaluated our solution using real vehicles. Evaluation results are promising and demonstrate the great potential of our proposal.
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| 33. |
- Zavala, E., et al.
(författare)
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HAFLoop: An architecture for supporting Highly Adaptive Feedback Loops in self-adaptive systems
- 2020
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Ingår i: Future Generation Computer Systems-the International Journal of Escience. - : Elsevier BV. - 0167-739X. ; 105:April, s. 607-630
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Most of the current self-adaptive systems (SASs) rely on static feedback loops such as the IBM's MAPEK loop for managing their adaptation process. Static loops do not allow SASs to react to runtime events such as changing adaptation requirements or MAPE-K elements' faults. In order to address this issue, some solutions have emerged for manually or automatically perform changes on SASs' feedback loops. However, from the software engineering perspective, most of the proposals cannot be reused or extended by other SASs. In this paper, we present HAFLoop (Highly Adaptive Feedback control Loop), a generic architectural proposal that aims at easing and fastening the design and implementation of adaptive feedback loops in modern SASs. Our solution enables both structural and parameter adaptation of the loop elements. Moreover, it provides a highly modular design that allows SASs' owners to support a variety of feedback loop settings from centralized to fully decentralized. In this work, HAFLoop has been implemented as a framework for Java-based systems and evaluated in two emerging software application domains: self-driving vehicles and IoT networks. Results demonstrate that our proposal easies and accelerates the development of adaptive feedback loops as well as how it could help to address some of the most relevant challenges of self-driving vehicles and IoT applications. Concretely, HAFLoop has demonstrated to improve SASs' feedback loops' runtime availability and operation. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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| 34. |
- Zavala, Elena I., et al.
(författare)
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Ancient DNA Methods Improve Forensic DNA Profiling of Korean War and World War II Unknowns
- 2022
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Ingår i: Genes. - : MDPI. - 2073-4425. ; 13:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The integration of massively parallel sequencing (MPS) technology into forensic casework has been of particular benefit to the identification of unknown military service members. However, highly degraded or chemically treated skeletal remains often fail to provide usable DNA profiles, even with sensitive mitochondrial (mt) DNA capture and MPS methods. In parallel, the ancient DNA field has developed workflows specifically for degraded DNA, resulting in the successful recovery of nuclear DNA and mtDNA from skeletal remains as well as sediment over 100,000 years old. In this study we use a set of disinterred skeletal remains from the Korean War and World War II to test if ancient DNA extraction and library preparation methods improve forensic DNA profiling. We identified an ancient DNA extraction protocol that resulted in the recovery of significantly more human mtDNA fragments than protocols previously used in casework. In addition, utilizing single-stranded rather than double-stranded library preparation resulted in increased attainment of reportable mtDNA profiles. This study emphasizes that the combination of ancient DNA extraction and library preparation methods evaluated here increases the success rate of DNA profiling, and likelihood of identifying historical remains.
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| 35. |
- Zavala, E., et al.
(författare)
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SACRE: Supporting contextual requirements' adaptation in modern self-adaptive systems in the presence of uncertainty at runtime
- 2018
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Ingår i: Expert Systems with Applications. - : Elsevier BV. - 0957-4174. ; 98, s. 166-188
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Runtime uncertainty such as unpredictable resource unavailability, changing environmental conditions and user needs, as well as system intrusions or faults represents one of the main current challenges of self-adaptive systems. Moreover, today's systems are increasingly more complex, distributed, decentralized, etc. and therefore have to reason about and cope with more and more unpredictable events. Approaches to deal with such changing requirements in complex today's systems are still missing. This work presents SACRE (Smart Adaptation through Contextual REquirements), our approach leveraging an adaptation feedback loop to detect self-adaptive systems' contextual requirements affected by uncertainty and to integrate machine learning techniques to determine the best operationalization of context based on sensed data at runtime. SACRE is a step forward of our former approach ACon which focus had been on adapting the context in contextual requirements, as well as their basic implementation. SACRE primarily focuses on architectural decisions, addressing self-adaptive systems' engineering challenges. Furthering the work on ACon, in this paper, we perform an evaluation of the entire approach in different uncertainty scenarios in real-time in the extremely demanding domain of smart vehicles. The real-time evaluation is conducted in a simulated environment in which the smart vehicle is implemented through software components. The evaluation results provide empirical evidence about the applicability of SACRE in real and complex software system domains. (C) 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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