| 11. |
- Aghanim, N., et al.
(author)
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Planck 2018 results VI. Cosmological parameters
- 2020
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In: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 641
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We present cosmological parameter results from the final full-mission Planck measurements of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropies, combining information from the temperature and polarization maps and the lensing reconstruction. Compared to the 2015 results, improved measurements of large-scale polarization allow the reionization optical depth to be measured with higher precision, leading to significant gains in the precision of other correlated parameters. Improved modelling of the small-scale polarization leads to more robust constraints on many parameters, with residual modelling uncertainties estimated to affect them only at the 0.5 sigma level. We find good consistency with the standard spatially-flat 6-parameter Lambda CDM cosmology having a power-law spectrum of adiabatic scalar perturbations (denoted base Lambda CDM in this paper), from polarization, temperature, and lensing, separately and in combination. A combined analysis gives dark matter density Omega (c)h(2)=0.120 +/- 0.001, baryon density Omega (b)h(2)=0.0224 +/- 0.0001, scalar spectral index n(s)=0.965 +/- 0.004, and optical depth tau =0.054 +/- 0.007 (in this abstract we quote 68% confidence regions on measured parameters and 95% on upper limits). The angular acoustic scale is measured to 0.03% precision, with 100 theta (*)=1.0411 +/- 0.0003. These results are only weakly dependent on the cosmological model and remain stable, with somewhat increased errors, in many commonly considered extensions. Assuming the base-Lambda CDM cosmology, the inferred (model-dependent) late-Universe parameters are: Hubble constant H-0=(67.4 +/- 0.5) km s(-1) Mpc(-1); matter density parameter Omega (m)=0.315 +/- 0.007; and matter fluctuation amplitude sigma (8)=0.811 +/- 0.006. We find no compelling evidence for extensions to the base-Lambda CDM model. Combining with baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) measurements (and considering single-parameter extensions) we constrain the effective extra relativistic degrees of freedom to be N-eff=2.99 +/- 0.17, in agreement with the Standard Model prediction N-eff=3.046, and find that the neutrino mass is tightly constrained to Sigma m(nu)< 0.12 eV. The CMB spectra continue to prefer higher lensing amplitudes than predicted in base CDM at over 2 sigma, which pulls some parameters that affect the lensing amplitude away from the Lambda CDM model; however, this is not supported by the lensing reconstruction or (in models that also change the background geometry) BAO data. The joint constraint with BAO measurements on spatial curvature is consistent with a flat universe, Omega (K)=0.001 +/- 0.002. Also combining with Type Ia supernovae (SNe), the dark-energy equation of state parameter is measured to be w(0)=-1.03 +/- 0.03, consistent with a cosmological constant. We find no evidence for deviations from a purely power-law primordial spectrum, and combining with data from BAO, BICEP2, and Keck Array data, we place a limit on the tensor-to-scalar ratio r(0.002)< 0.06. Standard big-bang nucleosynthesis predictions for the helium and deuterium abundances for the base-CDM cosmology are in excellent agreement with observations. The Planck base-Lambda CDM results are in good agreement with BAO, SNe, and some galaxy lensing observations, but in slight tension with the Dark Energy Survey's combined-probe results including galaxy clustering (which prefers lower fluctuation amplitudes or matter density parameters), and in significant, 3.6 sigma, tension with local measurements of the Hubble constant (which prefer a higher value). Simple model extensions that can partially resolve these tensions are not favoured by the Planck data.
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| 12. |
- Aghanim, N., et al.
(author)
-
Planck 2018 results XII. Galactic astrophysics using polarized dust emission
- 2020
-
In: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 641
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Observations of the submillimetre emission from Galactic dust, in both total intensity I and polarization, have received tremendous interest thanks to the Planck full-sky maps. In this paper we make use of such full-sky maps of dust polarized emission produced from the third public release of Planck data. As the basis for expanding on astrophysical studies of the polarized thermal emission from Galactic dust, we present full-sky maps of the dust polarization fraction p, polarization angle psi, and dispersion function of polarization angles ?. The joint distribution (one-point statistics) of p and N-H confirms that the mean and maximum polarization fractions decrease with increasing N-H. The uncertainty on the maximum observed polarization fraction, (max) = 22.0(-1.4)(+3.5) p max = 22 . 0 - 1.4 + 3.5 % at 353 GHz and 80 ' resolution, is dominated by the uncertainty on the Galactic emission zero level in total intensity, in particular towards diffuse lines of sight at high Galactic latitudes. Furthermore, the inverse behaviour between p and ? found earlier is seen to be present at high latitudes. This follows the ?proportional to p(-1) relationship expected from models of the polarized sky (including numerical simulations of magnetohydrodynamical turbulence) that include effects from only the topology of the turbulent magnetic field, but otherwise have uniform alignment and dust properties. Thus, the statistical properties of p, psi, and ? for the most part reflect the structure of the Galactic magnetic field. Nevertheless, we search for potential signatures of varying grain alignment and dust properties. First, we analyse the product map ?xp, looking for residual trends. While the polarization fraction p decreases by a factor of 3-4 between N-H=10(20) cm(-2) and N-H=2x10(22) cm(-2), out of the Galactic plane, this product ?xp only decreases by about 25%. Because ? is independent of the grain alignment efficiency, this demonstrates that the systematic decrease in p with N-H is determined mostly by the magnetic-field structure and not by a drop in grain alignment. This systematic trend is observed both in the diffuse interstellar medium (ISM) and in molecular clouds of the Gould Belt. Second, we look for a dependence of polarization properties on the dust temperature, as we would expect from the radiative alignment torque (RAT) theory. We find no systematic trend of ?xp with the dust temperature T-d, whether in the diffuse ISM or in the molecular clouds of the Gould Belt. In the diffuse ISM, lines of sight with high polarization fraction p and low polarization angle dispersion ? tend, on the contrary, to have colder dust than lines of sight with low p and high ?. We also compare the Planck thermal dust polarization with starlight polarization data in the visible at high Galactic latitudes. The agreement in polarization angles is remarkable, and is consistent with what we expect from the noise and the observed dispersion of polarization angles in the visible on the scale of the Planck beam. The two polarization emission-to-extinction ratios, R-P/p and R-S/V, which primarily characterize dust optical properties, have only a weak dependence on the column density, and converge towards the values previously determined for translucent lines of sight. We also determine an upper limit for the polarization fraction in extinction, p(V)/E(B-V), of 13% at high Galactic latitude, compatible with the polarization fraction p approximate to 20% observed at 353 GHz. Taken together, these results provide strong constraints for models of Galactic dust in diffuse gas.
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| 13. |
- Akrami, Y., et al.
(author)
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Planck 2018 results X. Constraints on inflation
- 2020
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In: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 641
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We report on the implications for cosmic inflation of the 2018 release of the Planck cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropy measurements. The results are fully consistent with those reported using the data from the two previous Planck cosmological releases, but have smaller uncertainties thanks to improvements in the characterization of polarization at low and high multipoles. Planck temperature, polarization, and lensing data determine the spectral index of scalar perturbations to be n(s)=0.9649 +/- 0.0042 at 68% CL. We find no evidence for a scale dependence of n(s), either as a running or as a running of the running. The Universe is found to be consistent with spatial flatness with a precision of 0.4% at 95% CL by combining Planck with a compilation of baryon acoustic oscillation data. The Planck 95% CL upper limit on the tensor-to-scalar ratio, r(0.002)< 0.10, is further tightened by combining with the BICEP2/Keck Array BK15 data to obtain r(0.002)< 0.056. In the framework of standard single-field inflationary models with Einstein gravity, these results imply that: (a) the predictions of slow-roll models with a concave potential, V(phi) < 0, are increasingly favoured by the data; and (b) based on two different methods for reconstructing the inflaton potential, we find no evidence for dynamics beyond slow roll. Three different methods for the non-parametric reconstruction of the primordial power spectrum consistently confirm a pure power law in the range of comoving scales 0.005 Mpc(-1)k less than or similar to 0.2 Mpc(-1). A complementary analysis also finds no evidence for theoretically motivated parameterized features in the Planck power spectra. For the case of oscillatory features that are logarithmic or linear in k, this result is further strengthened by a new combined analysis including the Planck bispectrum data. The new Planck polarization data provide a stringent test of the adiabaticity of the initial conditions for the cosmological fluctuations. In correlated, mixed adiabatic and isocurvature models, the non-adiabatic contribution to the observed CMB temperature variance is constrained to 1.3%, 1.7%, and 1.7% at 95% CL for cold dark matter, neutrino density, and neutrino velocity, respectively. Planck power spectra plus lensing set constraints on the amplitude of compensated cold dark matter-baryon isocurvature perturbations that are consistent with current complementary measurements. The polarization data also provide improved constraints on inflationary models that predict a small statistically anisotropic quadupolar modulation of the primordial fluctuations. However, the polarization data do not support physical models for a scale-dependent dipolar modulation. All these findings support the key predictions of the standard single-field inflationary models, which will be further tested by future cosmological observations.
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| 14. |
- Rajewsky, N., et al.
(author)
-
LifeTime and improving European healthcare through cell-based interceptive medicine
- 2020
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In: Nature. - : Springer Nature. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 587:7834, s. 377-386
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- LifeTime aims to track, understand and target human cells during the onset and progression of complex diseases and their response to therapy at single-cell resolution. This mission will be implemented through the development and integration of single-cell multi-omics and imaging, artificial intelligence and patient-derived experimental disease models during progression from health to disease. Analysis of such large molecular and clinical datasets will discover molecular mechanisms, create predictive computational models of disease progression, and reveal new drug targets and therapies. Timely detection and interception of disease embedded in an ethical and patient-centered vision will be achieved through interactions across academia, hospitals, patient-associations, health data management systems and industry. Applying this strategy to key medical challenges in cancer, neurological, infectious, chronic inflammatory and cardiovascular diseases at the single-cell level will usher in cell-based interceptive medicine in Europe over the next decade.
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| 15. |
- Aghanim, N., et al.
(author)
-
Planck 2018 results VIII. Gravitational lensing
- 2020
-
In: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 641
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We present measurements of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) lensing potential using the final Planck 2018 temperature and polarization data. Using polarization maps filtered to account for the noise anisotropy, we increase the significance of the detection of lensing in the polarization maps from 5 sigma to 9 sigma. Combined with temperature, lensing is detected at 40 sigma. We present an extensive set of tests of the robustness of the lensing-potential power spectrum, and construct a minimum-variance estimator likelihood over lensing multipoles 8 <= L <= 400 (extending the range to lower L compared to 2015), which we use to constrain cosmological parameters. We find good consistency between lensing constraints and the results from the Planck CMB power spectra within the Lambda CDM model. Combined with baryon density and other weak priors, the lensing analysis alone constrains (8)Omega (0.25)(m) = 0.589 +/- 0.020 sigma 8 Omega m 0.25 = 0.589 +/- 0.020 (1 sigma errors). Also combining with baryon acoustic oscillation data, we find tight individual parameter constraints, sigma (8)=0.811 +/- 0.019, H-0 = 67.9(-1.3)(+1.2) km s(-1) Mpc(-1) H 0 = 67 . 9 - 1.3 + 1.2 .> km s - 1 . Mpc - 1 , and Omega (m) = 0.303(-0.018)(+0.016) Omega m = 0 . 303 - 0.018 + 0.016 . Combining with Planck CMB power spectrum data, we measure sigma (8) to better than 1% precision, finding sigma (8)=0.811 +/- 0.006. CMB lensing reconstruction data are complementary to galaxy lensing data at lower redshift, having a different degeneracy direction in sigma (8)-Omega (m) space; we find consistency with the lensing results from the Dark Energy Survey, and give combined lensing-only parameter constraints that are tighter than joint results using galaxy clustering. Using the Planck cosmic infrared background (CIB) maps as an additional tracer of high-redshift matter, we make a combined Planck-only estimate of the lensing potential over 60% of the sky with considerably more small-scale signal. We additionally demonstrate delensing of the Planck power spectra using the joint and individual lensing potential estimates, detecting a maximum removal of 40% of the lensing-induced power in all spectra. The improvement in the sharpening of the acoustic peaks by including both CIB and the quadratic lensing reconstruction is detected at high significance.
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| 16. |
- Akrami, Y., et al.
(author)
-
Planck 2018 results VII. Isotropy and statistics of the CMB
- 2020
-
In: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 641
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Analysis of the Planck 2018 data set indicates that the statistical properties of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) temperature anisotropies are in excellent agreement with previous studies using the 2013 and 2015 data releases. In particular, they are consistent with the Gaussian predictions of the Lambda CDM cosmological model, yet also confirm the presence of several so-called anomalies on large angular scales. The novelty of the current study, however, lies in being a first attempt at a comprehensive analysis of the statistics of the polarization signal over all angular scales, using either maps of the Stokes parameters, Q and U, or the E-mode signal derived from these using a new methodology (which we describe in an appendix). Although remarkable progress has been made in reducing the systematic effects that contaminated the 2015 polarization maps on large angular scales, it is still the case that residual systematics (and our ability to simulate them) can limit some tests of non-Gaussianity and isotropy. However, a detailed set of null tests applied to the maps indicates that these issues do not dominate the analysis on intermediate and large angular scales (i.e., l less than or similar to 400). In this regime, no unambiguous detections of cosmological non-Gaussianity, or of anomalies corresponding to those seen in temperature, are claimed. Notably, the stacking of CMB polarization signals centred on the positions of temperature hot and cold spots exhibits excellent agreement with the Lambda CDM cosmological model, and also gives a clear indication of how Planck provides state-of-the-art measurements of CMB temperature and polarization on degree scales.
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| 17. |
- Sherratt, K., et al.
(author)
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Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations
- 2023
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In: eLIFE. - : eLife Sciences Publications Ltd. - 2050-084X. ; 12
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Methods: We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by a standardised source for 32 countries over the next 1–4 weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models’ predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models’ forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models’ past predictive performance.Results: Over 52 weeks, we collected forecasts from 48 unique models. We evaluated 29 models’ forecast scores in comparison to the ensemble model. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 83% of participating models’ forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=886 predictions from 23 unique models), and 91% of participating models’ forecasts of deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models). Across a 1–4 week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over 4 weeks for incident death forecasts. In every forecast across 32 countries, the ensemble outperformed most contributing models when forecasting either cases or deaths, frequently outperforming all of its individual component models. Among several choices of ensemble methods we found that the most influential and best choice was to use a median average of models instead of using the mean, regardless of methods of weighting component forecast models.Conclusions: Our results support the use of combining forecasts from individual models into an ensemble in order to improve predictive performance across epidemiological targets and populations during infectious disease epidemics. Our findings further suggest that median ensemble methods yield better predictive performance more than ones based on means. Our findings also highlight that forecast consumers should place more weight on incident death forecasts than incident case forecasts at forecast horizons greater than 2 weeks.
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| 18. |
- Ades, M., et al.
(author)
-
Global Climate : in State of the climate in 2019
- 2020
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In: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - : American Meteorological Society. - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 101:8, s. S17-S127
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)
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| 19. |
- Ades, M., et al.
(author)
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GLOBAL CLIMATE
- 2020
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In: BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY. - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 101:8
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)
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| 20. |
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