| 11. |
- Fazel, Seena, et al.
(author)
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Homicide in discharged patients with schizophrenia and other psychoses : a national case-control study.
- 2010
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In: Schizophrenia Research. - : Elsevier BV. - 0920-9964 .- 1573-2509. ; 123:2-3, s. 263-9
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- OBJECTIVE: To investigate factors associated with homicide after discharge from hospital in patients with schizophrenia and other psychoses.DESIGN: All homicides committed by patients with psychosis within 6 months of hospital discharge were identified in Sweden from 1988-2001 and compared with patients with psychoses discharged over the same time period who did not subsequently commit any violent offences. Medical records were then collected, and data extracted using a validated protocol. Interrater reliability tests were performed on a subsample, and variables with poor reliability excluded from subsequent analyses.RESULTS: We identified 47 cases who committed a homicide within 6 months of discharge, and 105 controls who did not commit any violent offence after discharge. On univariate analyses, clinical factors on admission associated with homicide included evidence of poor self-care, substance misuse, and being previously hospitalized for a violent episode. Inpatient characteristics included having a severe mental illness for one year prior to admission. After-care factors associated with homicide were evidence of medication non-compliance and substance misuse. The predictive validity of combining two or three of these factors was not high. Depression appeared to be inversely associated with homicide, and there was no relationship with the presence of delusions or hallucinations.CONCLUSIONS: There are a number of potentially treatable factors that are associated with homicide in schizophrenia and other psychoses. Associations with substance misuse and treatment compliance could be the focus of therapeutic interventions if validated in other samples. However, their clinical utility in violence risk assessment remains uncertain.
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| 12. |
- Fazel, Seena, et al.
(author)
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Identification of low risk of violent crime in severe mental illness with a clinical prediction tool (Oxford Mental Illness and Violence tool [OxMIV]) : a derivation and validation study
- 2017
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In: Lancet psychiatry. - : Elsevier. - 2215-0374 .- 2215-0366. ; 4:6, s. 461-468
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Current approaches to stratify patients with psychiatric disorders into groups on the basis of violence risk are limited by inconsistency, variable accuracy, and unscalability. To address the need for a scalable and valid tool to assess violence risk in patients with schizophrenia spectrum or bipolar disorder, we describe the derivation of a score based on routinely collected factors and present findings from external validation.Methods: On the basis of a national cohort of 75 158 Swedish individuals aged 15-65 years with a diagnosis of severe mental illness (schizophrenia spectrum or bipolar disorder) with 574 018 patient episodes between Jan 1, 2001, and Dec 31, 2008, we developed predictive models for violent offending (primary outcome) within 1 year of hospital discharge for inpatients or clinical contact with psychiatric services for outpatients (patient episode) through linkage of population-based registers. We developed a derivation model to determine the relative influence of prespecified criminal history and sociodemographic and clinical risk factors, which are mostly routinely collected, and then tested it in an external validation. We measured discrimination and calibration for prediction of violent offending at 1 year using specified risk cutoffs.Findings: Of the cohort of 75 158 patients with schizophrenia spectrum or bipolar disorder, we assigned 58 771 (78%) to the derivation sample and 16 387 (22%) to the validation sample. In the derivation sample, 830 (1%) individuals committed a violent offence within 12 months of their patient episode. We developed a 16-item model. The strongest predictors of violent offending within 12 months were conviction for previous violent crime (adjusted odds ratio 5 . 03 [95% CI 4.23-5.98]; p < 0.0001), male sex (2.32 [1.91-2.81]; p < 0.0001), and age (0.63 per 10 years of age [0.58-0.67]; p < 0.0001). In external validation, the model showed good measures of discrimination (c-index 0.89 [0.85-0.93]) and calibration. For risk of violent offending at 1 year, with a 5% cutoff, sensitivity was 62% (95% CI 55-68) and specificity was 94% (93-94). The positive predictive value was 11% and the negative predictive value was more than 99%. We used the model to generate a simple web-based risk calculator (Oxford Mental Illness and Violence tool [OxMIV]).Interpretation: We have developed a prediction score in a national cohort of patients with schizophrenia spectrum or bipolar disorder, which can be used as an adjunct to decision making in clinical practice by identifying those who are at low risk of violent offending. The low positive predictive value suggests that further clinical assessment in individuals at high risk of violent offending is required to establish who might benefit from additional risk management. Further validation in other countries is needed. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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| 13. |
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| 14. |
- Fazel, Seena, et al.
(author)
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Mortality, Rehospitalisation and Violent Crime in Forensic Psychiatric Patients Discharged from Hospital : Rates and Risk Factors
- 2016
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In: PLOS ONE. - San Francisco, USA : Public Library of Science. - 1932-6203. ; 11:5
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Objectives: To determine rates and risk factors for adverse outcomes in patients discharged from forensic psychiatric services.Method: We conducted a historical cohort study of all 6,520 psychiatric patients discharged from forensic psychiatric hospitals between 1973 and 2009 in Sweden. We calculated hazard ratios for mortality, rehospitalisation, and violent crime using Cox regression to investigate the effect of different psychiatric diagnoses and two comorbidities (personality or substance use disorder) on outcomes.Results: Over mean follow-up of 15.6 years, 30% of patients died (n = 1,949) after discharge with an average age at death of 52 years. Over two-thirds were rehospitalised (n = 4,472, 69%), and 40% violently offended after discharge (n = 2,613) with a mean time to violent crime of 4.2 years. The association between psychiatric diagnosis and outcome varied-substance use disorder as a primary diagnosis was associated with highest risk of mortality and rehospitalisation, and personality disorder was linked with the highest risk of violent offending. Furthermore comorbid substance use disorder typically increased risk of adverse outcomes.Conclusion: Violent offending, premature mortality and rehospitalisation are prevalent in patients discharged from forensic psychiatric hospitals. Individualised treatment plans for such patients should take into account primary and comorbid psychiatric diagnoses.
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| 15. |
- Fazel, Seena, et al.
(author)
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Neurological disorders and violence : a systematic review and meta-analysis with a focus on epilepsy and traumatic brain injury
- 2009
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In: Journal of Neurology. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0340-5354 .- 1432-1459. ; 256:10, s. 1591-1602
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Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The objectives of this study were to systematically review and meta-analyze the research literature on the association of common neurological disorders and violence. Keywords relating to neurological disorders and violence were searched between 1966 and August 2008. Case-control and cohort studies were selected. Odds ratios of violence risk in particular disorders compared with controls were combined using fixed-effects meta-analysis with the data presented in forest plots. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to identify possible differences in risk estimates across surveys. Information on risk factors for violence was extracted if replicated in more than one study. Nine studies were identified that compared the risk of violence in epilepsy or traumatic brain injury compared with unaffected controls. For the epilepsy studies, the overall pooled odds ratio for violent outcomes was 0.67 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.46-0.96]. For traumatic brain injury, the odds ratio was 1.66 (95% CI 1.12-2.31). An additional 11 case-control studies investigated factors associated with violence in epilepsy and traumatic brain injury. It was not possible to meta-analyze these data. Comorbid psychopathology was associated with violence. Data on other neurological conditions was limited and unreplicated. In conclusion, although the evidence was limited and methodological quality varied, epilepsy and traumatic brain injury appeared to differ in their risk of violence compared with control populations. Longitudinal studies are required to replicate this review's provisional findings that epilepsy is inversely associated with violence and that brain injury modestly increases the risk, and further research is needed to provide information on a broader range of risk factors.
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| 16. |
- Fazel, Seena, et al.
(author)
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Prediction of violent reoffending on release from prison : derivation and external validation of a scalable tool
- 2016
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In: Lancet psychiatry. - : Elsevier. - 2215-0374 .- 2215-0366. ; 3:6, s. 535-543
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: More than 30 million people are released from prison worldwide every year, who include a group at high risk of perpetrating interpersonal violence. Because there is considerable inconsistency and inefficiency in identifying those who would benefit from interventions to reduce this risk, we developed and validated a clinical prediction rule to determine the risk of violent off ending in released prisoners.Methods: We did a cohort study of a population of released prisoners in Sweden. Through linkage of population-based registers, we developed predictive models for violent reoffending for the cohort. First, we developed a derivation model to determine the strength of prespecified, routinely obtained criminal history, sociodemographic, and clinical risk factors using multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression, and then tested them in an external validation. We measured discrimination and calibration for prediction of our primary outcome of violent reoffending at 1 and 2 years using cutoffs of 10% for 1-year risk and 20% for 2-year risk.Findings: We identified a cohort of 47 326 prisoners released in Sweden between 2001 and 2009, with 11 263 incidents of violent reoffending during this period. We developed a 14-item derivation model to predict violent reoffending and tested it in an external validation (assigning 37 100 individuals to the derivation sample and 10 226 to the validation sample). The model showed good measures of discrimination (Harrell's c-index 0.74) and calibration. For risk of violent reoffending at 1 year, sensitivity was 76% (95% CI 73-79) and specificity was 61% (95% CI 60-62). Positive and negative predictive values were 21% (95% CI 19-22) and 95% (95% CI 94-96), respectively. At 2 years, sensitivity was 67% (95% CI 64-69) and specificity was 70% (95% CI 69-72). Positive and negative predictive values were 37% (95% CI 35-39) and 89% (95% CI 88-90), respectively. Of individuals with a predicted risk of violent reoffending of 50% or more, 88% had drug and alcohol use disorders. We used the model to generate a simple, web-based, risk calculator (OxRec) that is free to use.Interpretation: We have developed a prediction model in a Swedish prison population that can assist with decision making on release by identifying those who are at low risk of future violent off ending, and those at high risk of violent reoffending who might benefit from drug and alcohol treatment. Further assessments in other populations and countries are needed.
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| 17. |
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| 18. |
- Fazel, Seena, et al.
(author)
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Risk Factors for Violent Crime in Schizophrenia : A National Cohort Study of 13,806 Patients
- 2009
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In: Journal of Clinical Psychiatry. - 0160-6689 .- 1555-2101. ; 70:3, s. 362-369
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Objective: To determine risk factors for and prevalence of violent crime in patients with schizophrenia, and in particular, to explore the contribution of familial risk factors. Method: We designed a cohort study that followed up patients with 2 or more hospitalizations for schizophrenia (ICD-8, ICD-9, and ICD-10 criteria) and investigated the risk for a violent conviction using Cox proportional hazards models. All 13,806 patients with 2 hospital discharge diagnoses of schizophrenia from January 1, 1973. through December 31, 2004, in Sweden were followed until violent conviction, emigration, death, or end of follow-up (December 31, 2004), and associations with sociodemographic, individual (substance abuse comorbidity, and previous violence), and familial (parental violent crime and parental alcohol abuse) factors were examined. Results: Over an average follow-up period of 12 years, 17.1% (N = 15 19) of the men and 5.6% (N = 273) of the women with 2 or more hospitalizations for schizophrenia had a violent conviction after discharge from hospital. Familial risk factors had moderate effects, increasing the risk for violent convictions by 50% to 150%. After adjustment for sociodemographic and individual risk factors, the associations between parental violent crime and risk of violent convictions remained in men (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] = 1.65, 95% Cl = 1.33 to 2.04) and in women (adjusted HR = 1.83. 95% CI = 1.11 to 3.01), whereas parental alcohol abuse was no longer significantly associated with violent crime. Conclusion: Parental violent crime had moderate associations with violent crime in male and female offspring with at least 2 hospitalizations for schizophrenia, which were mostly stronger than the better documented sociodemographic risk factors. This suggests that familial (genetic or early environmental) risk factors have an important role in the etiology of violent offending among individuals with schizophrenia and should be considered in violence risk assessment.
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| 19. |
- Fazel, Seena, et al.
(author)
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Risk of death by suicide following self-harm presentations to healthcare : development and validation of a multivariable clinical prediction rule (OxSATS)
- 2023
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In: BMJ Mental Health. - : BMJ Publishing Group Ltd. - 2755-9734. ; 26:1
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Assessment of suicide risk in individuals who have self-harmed is common in emergency departments, but is often based on tools developed for other purposes. OBJECTIVE: We developed and validated a predictive model for suicide following self-harm.METHODS: We used data from Swedish population-based registers. A cohort of 53 172 individuals aged 10+ years, with healthcare episodes of self-harm, was split into development (37 523 individuals, of whom 391 died from suicide within 12 months) and validation (15 649 individuals, 178 suicides within 12 months) samples. We fitted a multivariable accelerated failure time model for the association between risk factors and time to suicide. The final model contains 11 factors: age, sex, and variables related to substance misuse, mental health and treatment, and history of self-harm. Transparent reporting of a multivariable prediction model for individual prognosis or diagnosis guidelines were followed for the design and reporting of this work.FINDINGS: An 11-item risk model to predict suicide was developed using sociodemographic and clinical risk factors, and showed good discrimination (c-index 0.77, 95% CI 0.75 to 0.78) and calibration in external validation. For risk of suicide within 12 months, using a 1% cut-off, sensitivity was 82% (75% to 87%) and specificity was 54% (53% to 55%). A web-based risk calculator is available (Oxford Suicide Assessment Tool for Self-harm or OxSATS).CONCLUSIONS: OxSATS accurately predicts 12-month risk of suicide. Further validations and linkage to effective interventions are required to examine clinical utility.CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS: Using a clinical prediction score may assist clinical decision-making and resource allocation.
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| 20. |
- Fazel, Seena, et al.
(author)
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Schizophrenia, substance abuse, and violent crime
- 2009
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In: Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA). - : American Medical Association (AMA). - 0098-7484 .- 1538-3598. ; 301:19, s. 2016-2023
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- CONTEXT: Persons with schizophrenia are thought to be at increased risk of committing violent crime 4 to 6 times the level of general population individuals without this disorder. However, risk estimates vary substantially across studies, and considerable uncertainty exists as to what mediates this elevated risk. Despite this uncertainty, current guidelines recommend that violence risk assessment should be conducted for all patients with schizophrenia. OBJECTIVE: To determine the risk of violent crime among patients diagnosed as having schizophrenia and the role of substance abuse in mediating this risk. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Longitudinal designs were used to link data from nationwide Swedish registers of hospital admissions and criminal convictions in 1973-2006. Risk of violent crime in patients after diagnosis of schizophrenia (n = 8003) was compared with that among general population controls (n = 80 025). Potential confounders (age, sex, income, and marital and immigrant status) and mediators (substance abuse comorbidity) were measured at baseline. To study familial confounding, we also investigated risk of violence among unaffected siblings (n = 8123) of patients with schizophrenia. Information on treatment was not available. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Violent crime (any criminal conviction for homicide, assault, robbery, arson, any sexual offense, illegal threats, or intimidation). RESULTS: In patients with schizophrenia, 1054 (13.2%) had at least 1 violent offense compared with 4276 (5.3%) of general population controls (adjusted odds ratio [OR], 2.0; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.8-2.2). The risk was mostly confined to patients with substance abuse comorbidity (of whom 27.6% committed an offense), yielding an increased risk of violent crime among such patients (adjusted OR, 4.4; 95% CI, 3.9-5.0), whereas the risk increase was small in schizophrenia patients without substance abuse comorbidity (8.5% of whom had at least 1 violent offense; adjusted OR, 1.2; 95% CI, 1.1-1.4; P<.001 for interaction). The risk increase among those with substance abuse comorbidity was significantly less pronounced when unaffected siblings were used as controls (28.3% of those with schizophrenia had a violent offense compared with 17.9% of their unaffected siblings; adjusted OR, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.4-2.4; P<.001 for interaction), suggesting significant familial (genetic or early environmental) confounding of the association between schizophrenia and violence. CONCLUSIONS: Schizophrenia was associated with an increased risk of violent crime in this longitudinal study. This association was attenuated by adjustment for substance abuse, suggesting a mediating effect. The role of risk assessment, management, and treatment in individuals with comorbidity needs further examination.
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