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- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national levels of neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality during 1990-2013 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2014
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In: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 384:9947, s. 957-979
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Remarkable financial and political efforts have been focused on the reduction of child mortality during the past few decades. Timely measurements of levels and trends in under-5 mortality are important to assess progress towards the Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) target of reduction of child mortality by two thirds from 1990 to 2015, and to identify models of success.METHODS: We generated updated estimates of child mortality in early neonatal (age 0-6 days), late neonatal (7-28 days), postneonatal (29-364 days), childhood (1-4 years), and under-5 (0-4 years) age groups for 188 countries from 1970 to 2013, with more than 29 000 survey, census, vital registration, and sample registration datapoints. We used Gaussian process regression with adjustments for bias and non-sampling error to synthesise the data for under-5 mortality for each country, and a separate model to estimate mortality for more detailed age groups. We used explanatory mixed effects regression models to assess the association between under-5 mortality and income per person, maternal education, HIV child death rates, secular shifts, and other factors. To quantify the contribution of these different factors and birth numbers to the change in numbers of deaths in under-5 age groups from 1990 to 2013, we used Shapley decomposition. We used estimated rates of change between 2000 and 2013 to construct under-5 mortality rate scenarios out to 2030.FINDINGS: We estimated that 6·3 million (95% UI 6·0-6·6) children under-5 died in 2013, a 64% reduction from 17·6 million (17·1-18·1) in 1970. In 2013, child mortality rates ranged from 152·5 per 1000 livebirths (130·6-177·4) in Guinea-Bissau to 2·3 (1·8-2·9) per 1000 in Singapore. The annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2013 ranged from -6·8% to 0·1%. 99 of 188 countries, including 43 of 48 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, had faster decreases in child mortality during 2000-13 than during 1990-2000. In 2013, neonatal deaths accounted for 41·6% of under-5 deaths compared with 37·4% in 1990. Compared with 1990, in 2013, rising numbers of births, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, led to 1·4 million more child deaths, and rising income per person and maternal education led to 0·9 million and 2·2 million fewer deaths, respectively. Changes in secular trends led to 4·2 million fewer deaths. Unexplained factors accounted for only -1% of the change in child deaths. In 30 developing countries, decreases since 2000 have been faster than predicted attributable to income, education, and secular shift alone.INTERPRETATION: Only 27 developing countries are expected to achieve MDG 4. Decreases since 2000 in under-5 mortality rates are accelerating in many developing countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. The Millennium Declaration and increased development assistance for health might have been a factor in faster decreases in some developing countries. Without further accelerated progress, many countries in west and central Africa will still have high levels of under-5 mortality in 2030.
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- Yusuf, S., et al.
(author)
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Cardiovascular risk and events in 17 low-, middle-, and high-income countries
- 2014
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In: New England Journal of Medicine. - 0028-4793 .- 1533-4406. ; 371:9, s. 818-27
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND: More than 80% of deaths from cardiovascular disease are estimated to occur in low-income and middle-income countries, but the reasons are unknown. METHODS: We enrolled 156,424 persons from 628 urban and rural communities in 17 countries (3 high-income, 10 middle-income, and 4 low-income countries) and assessed their cardiovascular risk using the INTERHEART Risk Score, a validated score for quantifying risk-factor burden without the use of laboratory testing (with higher scores indicating greater risk-factor burden). Participants were followed for incident cardiovascular disease and death for a mean of 4.1 years. RESULTS: The mean INTERHEART Risk Score was highest in high-income countries, intermediate in middle-income countries, and lowest in low-income countries (P<0.001). However, the rates of major cardiovascular events (death from cardiovascular causes, myocardial infarction, stroke, or heart failure) were lower in high-income countries than in middle- and low-income countries (3.99 events per 1000 person-years vs. 5.38 and 6.43 events per 1000 person-years, respectively; P<0.001). Case fatality rates were also lowest in high-income countries (6.5%, 15.9%, and 17.3% in high-, middle-, and low-income countries, respectively; P=0.01). Urban communities had a higher risk-factor burden than rural communities but lower rates of cardiovascular events (4.83 vs. 6.25 events per 1000 person-years, P<0.001) and case fatality rates (13.52% vs. 17.25%, P<0.001). The use of preventive medications and revascularization procedures was significantly more common in high-income countries than in middle- or low-income countries (P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Although the risk-factor burden was lowest in low-income countries, the rates of major cardiovascular disease and death were substantially higher in low-income countries than in high-income countries. The high burden of risk factors in high-income countries may have been mitigated by better control of risk factors and more frequent use of proven pharmacologic therapies and revascularization. (Funded by the Population Health Research Institute and others.).
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- Alam, M., et al.
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Antigen-Specific Memory B-cell Responses to Enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli Infection in Bangladeshi Adults
- 2014
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In: PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1935-2727 .- 1935-2735. ; 8:4
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Multiple infections with diverse enterotoxigenic E. coli (ETEC) strains lead to broad spectrum protection against ETEC diarrhea. However, the precise mechanism of protection against ETEC infection is still unknown. Therefore, memory B cell responses and affinity maturation of antibodies to the specific ETEC antigens might be important to understand the mechanism of protection. Methodology: In this study, we investigated the heat labile toxin B subunit (LTB) and colonization factor antigens (CFA/I and CS6) specific IgA and IgG memory B cell responses in Bangladeshi adults (n = 52) who were infected with ETEC. We also investigated the avidity of IgA and IgG antibodies that developed after infection to these antigens. Principal Findings: Patients infected with ETEC expressing LT or LT+heat stable toxin (ST) and CFA/I group or CS6 colonization factors developed LTB, CFA/I or CS6 specific memory B cell responses at day 30 after infection. Similarly, these patients developed high avidity IgA and IgG antibodies to LTB, CFA/I or CS6 at day 7 that remained significantly elevated at day 30 when compared to the avidity of these specific antibodies at the acute stage of infection (day 2). The memory B cell responses, antibody avidity and other immune responses to CFA/I not only developed in patients infected with ETEC expressing CFA/I but also in those infected with ETEC expressing CFA/I cross-reacting epitopes. We also detected a significant positive correlation of LTB, CFA/I and CS6 specific memory B cell responses with the corresponding increase in antibody avidity. Conclusion: This study demonstrates that natural infection with ETEC induces memory B cells and high avidity antibodies to LTB and colonization factor CFA/I and CS6 antigens that could mediate anamnestic responses on re-exposure to ETEC and may help in understanding the requirements to design an effective vaccination strategies.
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- Goobar, Ariel, et al.
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THE RISE OF SN 2014J IN THE NEARBY GALAXY M82
- 2014
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In: Astrophysical Journal Letters. - 2041-8205 .- 2041-8213. ; 784:1
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We report on the discovery of SN 2014J in the nearby galaxy M82. Given its proximity, it offers the best opportunity to date to study a thermonuclear supernova (SN) over a wide range of the electromagnetic spectrum. Optical, near-IR, and mid-IR observations on the rising light curve, orchestrated by the intermediate Palomar Transient Factory, show that SN 2014J is a spectroscopically normal Type Ia supernova (SN Ia), albeit exhibiting high-velocity features in its spectrum and heavily reddened by dust in the host galaxy. Our earliest detections start just hours after the fitted time of explosion. We use high-resolution optical spectroscopy to analyze the dense intervening material and do not detect any evolution in the resolved absorption features during the light curve rise. Similar to other highly reddened SNe Ia, a low value of total-to-selective extinction, R-V less than or similar to 2, provides the best match to our observations. We also study pre-explosion optical and near-IR images from Hubble Space Telescope with special emphasis on the sources nearest to the SN location.
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