| 1. |
- Tabiri, S, et al.
(författare)
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- 2021
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swepub:Mat__t
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| 2. |
- Bravo, L, et al.
(författare)
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- 2021
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swepub:Mat__t
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| 3. |
- Schumacher, A. E., et al.
(författare)
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Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic : a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
- 2024
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier B.V.. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 403:10440, s. 1989-2056
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 4. |
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| 5. |
- Algaba, Juan-Carlos, et al.
(författare)
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Broadband Multi-wavelength Properties of M87 during the 2017 Event Horizon Telescope Campaign
- 2021
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal Letters. - : American Astronomical Society. - 2041-8213 .- 2041-8205. ; 911:1
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- In 2017, the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) Collaboration succeeded in capturing the first direct image of the center of the M87 galaxy. The asymmetric ring morphology and size are consistent with theoretical expectations for a weakly accreting supermassive black hole of mass ∼6.5 × 109 M o˙. The EHTC also partnered with several international facilities in space and on the ground, to arrange an extensive, quasi-simultaneous multi-wavelength campaign. This Letter presents the results and analysis of this campaign, as well as the multi-wavelength data as a legacy data repository. We captured M87 in a historically low state, and the core flux dominates over HST-1 at high energies, making it possible to combine core flux constraints with the more spatially precise very long baseline interferometry data. We present the most complete simultaneous multi-wavelength spectrum of the active nucleus to date, and discuss the complexity and caveats of combining data from different spatial scales into one broadband spectrum. We apply two heuristic, isotropic leptonic single-zone models to provide insight into the basic source properties, but conclude that a structured jet is necessary to explain M87's spectrum. We can exclude that the simultaneous γ-ray emission is produced via inverse Compton emission in the same region producing the EHT mm-band emission, and further conclude that the γ-rays can only be produced in the inner jets (inward of HST-1) if there are strongly particle-dominated regions. Direct synchrotron emission from accelerated protons and secondaries cannot yet be excluded.
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| 6. |
- Abbasi, R., et al.
(författare)
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Acceptance Tests of more than 10 000 Photomultiplier Tubes for the multi-PMT Digital Optical Modules of the IceCube Upgrade
- 2024
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Ingår i: Journal of Instrumentation. - 1748-0221. ; 19:7
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- More than 10 000 photomultiplier tubes (PMTs) with a diameter of 80 mm will be installed in multi-PMT Digital Optical Modules (mDOMs) of the IceCube Upgrade. These have been tested and pre-calibrated at two sites. A throughput of more than 1000 PMTs per week with both sites was achieved with a modular design of the testing facilities and highly automated testing procedures. The testing facilities can easily be adapted to other PMTs, such that they can, e.g., be re-used for testing the PMTs for IceCube-Gen2. Single photoelectron response, high voltage dependence, time resolution, prepulse, late pulse, afterpulse probabilities, and dark rates were measured for each PMT. We describe the design of the testing facilities, the testing procedures, and the results of the acceptance tests.
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| 7. |
- Abbasi, R., et al.
(författare)
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Characterization of the astrophysical diffuse neutrino flux using starting track events in IceCube
- 2024
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Ingår i: Physical Review D - Particles, Fields, Gravitation and Cosmology. - 2470-0010 .- 2470-0029. ; 110:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A measurement of the diffuse astrophysical neutrino spectrum is presented using IceCube data collected from 2011-2022 (10.3 years). We developed novel detection techniques to search for events with a contained vertex and exiting track induced by muon neutrinos undergoing a charged-current interaction. Searching for these starting track events allows us to not only more effectively reject atmospheric muons but also atmospheric neutrino backgrounds in the southern sky, opening a new window to the sub-100 TeV astrophysical neutrino sky. The event selection is constructed using a dynamic starting track veto and machine learning algorithms. We use this data to measure the astrophysical diffuse flux as a single power law flux (SPL) with a best-fit spectral index of γ=2.58-0.09+0.10 and per-flavor normalization of φper-flavorAstro=1.68-0.22+0.19×10-18×GeV-1 cm-2 s-1 sr-1 (at 100 TeV). The sensitive energy range for this dataset is 3-550 TeV under the SPL assumption. This data was also used to measure the flux under a broken power law, however we did not find any evidence of a low energy cutoff.
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| 8. |
- Abbasi, R., et al.
(författare)
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Improved modeling of in-ice particle showers for IceCube event reconstruction
- 2024
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Ingår i: Journal of Instrumentation. - 1748-0221. ; 19:6
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The IceCube Neutrino Observatory relies on an array of photomultiplier tubes to detect Cherenkov light produced by charged particles in the South Pole ice. IceCube data analyses depend on an in-depth characterization of the glacial ice, and on novel approaches in event reconstruction that utilize fast approximations of photoelectron yields. Here, a more accurate model is derived for event reconstruction that better captures our current knowledge of ice optical properties. When evaluated on a Monte Carlo simulation set, the median angular resolution for in-ice particle showers improves by over a factor of three compared to a reconstruction based on a simplified model of the ice. The most substantial improvement is obtained when including effects of birefringence due to the polycrystalline structure of the ice. When evaluated on data classified as particle showers in the high-energy starting events sample, a significantly improved description of the events is observed.
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| 9. |
- Abbasi, R., et al.
(författare)
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Citizen science for IceCube: Name that Neutrino
- 2024
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Ingår i: European Physical Journal Plus. - 2190-5444. ; 139:6
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Name that Neutrino is a citizen science project where volunteers aid in classification of events for the IceCube Neutrino Observatory, an immense particle detector at the geographic South Pole. From March 2023 to September 2023, volunteers did classifications of videos produced from simulated data of both neutrino signal and background interactions. Name that Neutrino obtained more than 128,000 classifications by over 1800 registered volunteers that were compared to results obtained by a deep neural network machine-learning algorithm. Possible improvements for both Name that Neutrino and the deep neural network are discussed.
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| 10. |
- Abbasi, R., et al.
(författare)
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Search for decoherence from quantum gravity with atmospheric neutrinos
- 2024
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Ingår i: Nature Physics. - 1745-2481 .- 1745-2473. ; 20:6, s. 913-920
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Neutrino oscillations at the highest energies and longest baselines can be used to study the structure of spacetime and test the fundamental principles of quantum mechanics. If the metric of spacetime has a quantum mechanical description, its fluctuations at the Planck scale are expected to introduce non-unitary effects that are inconsistent with the standard unitary time evolution of quantum mechanics. Neutrinos interacting with such fluctuations would lose their quantum coherence, deviating from the expected oscillatory flavour composition at long distances and high energies. Here we use atmospheric neutrinos detected by the IceCube South Pole Neutrino Observatory in the energy range of 0.5-10.0 TeV to search for coherence loss in neutrino propagation. We find no evidence of anomalous neutrino decoherence and determine limits on neutrino-quantum gravity interactions. The constraint on the effective decoherence strength parameter within an energy-independent decoherence model improves on previous limits by a factor of 30. For decoherence effects scaling as E2, our limits are advanced by more than six orders of magnitude beyond past measurements compared with the state of the art. Interactions of atmospheric neutrinos with quantum-gravity-induced fluctuations of the metric of spacetime would lead to decoherence. The IceCube Collaboration constrains such interactions with atmospheric neutrinos.
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