| 1. |
- Boin, Arjen, et al.
(author)
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Explaining Success and Failure in Crisis Coordination
- 2015
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In: Geografiska Annaler. Series A, Physical Geography. - : Informa UK Limited. - 0435-3676 .- 1468-0459. ; 97:1, s. 123-135
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- In virtually every assessment of responses to large-scale crises and disasters, coordination is identified as a critical failure factor. After the crisis, official committees and political opponents often characterize the early phases of the response as a ‘failure to coordinate.’ Not surprisingly, improved coordination quickly emerges as the prescribed solution. Coordination, then, is apparently both the problem and the solution. But the proposed solutions rarely solve the problem: coordination continues to mar most crises and disasters. In the absence of a shared body of knowledge on coordination, it is hard to formulate a normative framework that allows for systematic assessment of coordination in times of crisis. As coordination is widely perceived as an important function of crisis and disaster management, this absence undermines a fair and balanced assessment of crisis management performance. This paper seeks to address that void. We aim to develop a framework that explains both the failure and success of crisis coordination. We do this by exploring the relevant literature, reformulating what coordination is and distilling from research the factors that cause failure and success.
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| 2. |
- Chen, Deliang, 1961, et al.
(author)
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Projecting future local precipitation and its extremes for Sweden
- 2015
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In: Geografiska Annaler. - : Informa UK Limited. - 0435-3676 .- 1468-0459. ; 97:1, s. 25-39
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- A procedure to obtain future local precipitation characteristics focused on extreme conditions has been developed based on a weather generator. The method involves six major steps: (1) the weather generator was calibrated using observed daily precipitation at 220 Swedish stations during 1961–2004; (2) present and future daily precipitation characteristics for the Swedish stations from two global climate models, namely ECHAM5 and HadCM3, were used to calculate weather generator parameters for the present and future climates at global climate model spatial scales; (3) the ratio of the weather generator parameters for the present climate simulated by the global climate models to those calculated for each station falling into the global climate model grid box were computed for all the stations; (4) these ratios were also assumed to be valid in the future climate, that way the future parameters for each station for the global climate model projected future climate could be calculated; (5) using the estimated future parameters of the weather generator, the future daily precipitation at each station could be simulated by the weather generator; (6) the simulated daily precipitation was used to compute eight indices describing mean and extreme precipitation climates. The future mean and extreme precipitation characteristics at the stations under the Second Report on Emission Scenarios A2 scenario were obtained and presented. An overall increasing trend for frequency and intensity of the indices are identified for the majority of the stations studied. The developed downscaling methodology is relatively simple but useful in deriving local precipitation changes, including changes in the precipitation extremes.
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| 3. |
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| 4. |
- Girons Lopez, Marc, 1986-, et al.
(author)
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Location and Density of Rain Gauges for the Estimation of Spatial Varying Precipitation
- 2015
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In: Geografiska Annaler. Series A, Physical Geography. - : Informa UK Limited. - 0435-3676 .- 1468-0459. ; 97:1, s. 167-179
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Accurate estimation of precipitation and its spatial variability is crucial for reliable discharge simulations. Although radar and satellite based techniques are becoming increasingly widespread, quantitative precipitation estimates based on point rain gauge measurement interpolation are, and will continue to be in the foreseeable future, widely used. However, the ability to infer spatially distributed data from point measurements is strongly dependent on the number, location and reliability of measurement stations.In this study we quantitatively investigated the effect of rain gauge network configurations on the spatial interpolation by using the operational hydrometeorological sensor network in the Thur river basin in north-eastern Switzerland as a test case. Spatial precipitation based on a combination of radar and rain gauge data provided by MeteoSwiss was assumed to represent the true precipitation values against which the precipitation interpolation from the sensor network was evaluated. The performance using scenarios with both increased and decreased station density were explored. The catchment-average interpolation error indices significantly improve up to a density of 24 rain gauges per 1000 km2, beyond which improvements were negligible. However, a reduced rain gauge density in the higher parts of the catchment resulted in a noticeable decline of the performance indices. An evaluation based on precipitation intensity thresholds indicated a decreasing performance for higher precipitation intensities. The results of this study emphasise the benefits of dense and adequately distributed rain gauge networks.
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| 5. |
- Guinea Barrientos, Héctor Estuardo, 1980-, et al.
(author)
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Disaster management cooperation in central america : The case of rainfall-induced natural disasters
- 2015
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In: Geografiska Annaler. Series A, Physical Geography. - : Wiley-Blackwell. - 0435-3676 .- 1468-0459. ; 97:1, s. 85-96
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Rainfall-induced natural disasters rank first among all natural disasters in Central America. Due to the geographical conditions of the Central American region, it is common that two or more countries are struck by the same rainfall event, for example Hurricane Mitch in 1998 affected the entire Central American region, killing more than 18000 people. As a consequence, Central American countries have started to promote regional policies and programs that aim for better preparation and response to these events, including disaster management cooperation. However, cooperation poses several challenges that may hinder its goals. In order to analyse these challenges, we present analysis in this paper of the current policy and legal institutions as well as the main challenges that may hinder international disaster management cooperation in Central America.
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| 6. |
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| 7. |
- Nohrstedt, Daniel, 1974-, et al.
(author)
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Do Floods Drive Crisis Mitigation Policy? : Evidence from Swedish Municipalities
- 2015
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In: Geografiska Annaler. Series A, Physical Geography. - Chichester, West Sussex : Wiley-Blackwell. - 0435-3676 .- 1468-0459. ; 97:1, s. 109-122
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- It is well established that continuous development of local-level mitigation policy plans and actions increases the chances of effective responses to natural hazards. What is less well known is how and why policy development, including the scope and pace of changes in municipality crisis mitigation programs, varies across local-level crisis mitigation systems. Using survey data on municipality hazard mitigation policy in Sweden, this study documents patterns of policy development and explores candidate explanations. Special attention is devoted to floods, which present local managers with opportunities to learn and adjust local mitigation policies. To investigate floods along with other hazards as potential drivers for local mitigation policy, the study examines three approaches to policy development: external shocks, transformation without disruption, and regional diffusion. Overall, in this case, the transformation without disruption model and the regional diffusion model do better than the external shocks model. Important precursors of policy development include collaboration, learning and diffusion effects from events and policy adoption in nearby municipalities. The study demonstrates the value of a broader analytical approach to policy development, which takes into account the interplay between events, collaborative management, and learning.
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| 8. |
- Nohrstedt, Daniel, et al.
(author)
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Do floods drive hazard mitigation policy? : Evidence from swedish municipalities
- 2015
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In: Geografiska Annaler. Series A, Physical Geography. - : Informa UK Limited. - 0435-3676 .- 1468-0459. ; 97:1, s. 109-122
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- It is well established that continuous development of local-level mitigation policy plans and actions increases the chances of effective responses to natural hazards. What is less well known is how and why policy development, including the scope and pace of changes in municipality crisis mitigation programs, varies across local-level crisis mitigation systems. Using survey data on municipality hazard mitigation policy in Sweden, this study documents patterns of policy development and explores candidate explanations. Special attention is devoted to floods, which present local managers with opportunities to learn and adjust local mitigation policies. To investigate floods along with other hazards as potential drivers for local mitigation policy, the study examines three approaches to policy development: external shocks, transformation without disruption, and regional diffusion. Overall, in this case, the transformation without disruption model and the regional diffusion model do better than the external shocks model. Important precursors of policy development include collaboration, learning and diffusion effects from events and policy adoption in nearby municipalities. The study demonstrates the value of a broader analytical approach to policy development, which takes into account the interplay between events, collaborative management, and learning.
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| 9. |
- Olauson, Jon, et al.
(author)
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Wind Energy Converters and Photovoltaics for Generation of Electricity after Natural Disasters
- 2015
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In: Geografiska Annaler. Series A, Physical Geography. - : Informa UK Limited. - 0435-3676 .- 1468-0459. ; 97:1, s. 9-23
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- During recovery and reconstruction after a natural disaster, an autonomous power supply might be needed for an extended period of time. In this work, the feasibility of using small-scale wind power and battery storage for power supply is evaluated and compared with systems containing photovoltaics. The investment cost per yearly produced kWh and for an optimized energy system supplying small loads (2 or 20 kW peak) has been calculated for 32 sites, predominantly in Africa and the Middle East. The sites represent foreign activities of the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency at the end of 2012.Since wind speed measurement series often have a lot of missing data, autoregressive moving average models were trained and used to generate hourly time series of wind speed. This methodology proved robust, even when data availability was very low or when measurements were only taken every third hour. The results of the simulations show that photovoltaic/battery systems outperform wind/battery systems at all evaluated sites. This can be explained by lower investment cost per yearly produced kWh and smoother daily/weekly power output over the year for the photovoltaic system. The proportion of wind power for optimized systems comprising wind, photovoltaics and battery bank is generally very low and the system cost is almost identical to the corresponding photovoltaic/battery systems. In conclusion, at lower latitudes and with little time for a proper wind measurement campaign, photovoltaics should be the primary candidate for replacing or complementing conventional diesel generators.
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| 10. |
- Parker, Charles F.
(author)
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Complex Negative Events and the Diffusion of Crisis : Lessons from the 2010 and 2011 Icelandic Volcanic Ash Cloud Events
- 2015
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In: Geografiska Annaler. Series A, Physical Geography. - : Swedish Society for Anthropology and Geography. - 0435-3676 .- 1468-0459. ; 97:1, s. 97-108
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- In a world characterized by complex interdependence, crises that originate in one country have the potential to rapidly diffuse across borders and have profound regional and even global impacts. The eruption of the Icelandic volcano Eyjafjallajökull in April 2010 demonstrates how rapidly a natural disaster can morph from a local crisis with local effects to a cascading crisis with international effects across multiple sectors. After spreading to Europe the ash cloud severely disrupted air travel and paralyzed the European aviation transport system. This cascading crisis caught authorities by surprise and revealed the need to improve crisis preparedness to deal with the threat of volcanic ash in particular and aviation in general at the international, EU, and national levels. In the aftermath of the event, reforms and policy changes ensued. Just over a year later, the Icelandic volcano Grímsvötn erupted, providing an opportunity to observe the revised system respond to a similar event. The origins, response, reforms, lessons learned, and questions of resilience connected to these complex negative events are the subject of this paper. The article concludes by addressing the question of whether and to what extent the vulnerabilities and problems exposed by the 2010 volcanic ash cloud event are amenable to reform.
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