| 1. |
- Grossmann, Igor, et al.
(author)
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Insights into the accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change
- 2023
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In: Nature Human Behaviour. - : Springer Nature. - 2397-3374. ; 7, s. 484-501
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing the accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social sciences: ideological preferences, political polarization, life satisfaction, sentiment on social media, and gender-career and racial bias. After we provided them with historical trend data on the relevant domain, social scientists submitted pre-registered monthly forecasts for a year (Tournament 1; N = 86 teams and 359 forecasts), with an opportunity to update forecasts on the basis of new data six months later (Tournament 2; N = 120 teams and 546 forecasts). Benchmarking forecasting accuracy revealed that social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models (historical means, random walks or linear regressions) or the aggregate forecasts of a sample from the general public (N = 802). However, scientists were more accurate if they had scientific expertise in a prediction domain, were interdisciplinary, used simpler models and based predictions on prior data. How accurate are social scientists in predicting societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? Grossmann et al. report the findings of two forecasting tournaments. Social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models.
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| 2. |
- Levan, Andrew J., et al.
(author)
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A long-duration gamma-ray burst of dynamical origin from the nucleus of an ancient galaxy
- 2023
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In: Nature Astronomy. - 2397-3366. ; 7:8, s. 976-985
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The majority of long-duration (>2 s) gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) arise from the collapse of massive stars, with a small proportion created from the merger of compact objects. Most of these systems form via standard stellar evolution pathways. However, a fraction of GRBs may result from dynamical interactions in dense environments. These channels could also contribute substantially to the samples of compact object mergers detected as gravitational wave sources. Here we report the case of GRB 191019A, a long GRB (a duration of T90 = 64.4 ± 4.5 s), which we pinpoint close (⪅100 pc projected) to the nucleus of an ancient (>1 Gyr old) host galaxy at z = 0.248. The lack of evidence for star formation and deep limits on any supernova emission disfavour a massive star origin. The most likely route for progenitor formation is via dynamical interactions in the dense nucleus of the host. The progenitor, in this case, could be a compact object merger. These may form in dense nuclear clusters or originate in a gaseous disc around the supermassive black hole. Identifying, to the best of our knowledge, a first example of a dynamically produced GRB demonstrates the role that such bursts may have in probing dense environments and constraining dynamical fractions in gravitational wave populations.
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| 3. |
- Alexander, Stephen P. H., et al.
(author)
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The Concise Guide to PHARMACOLOGY 2023/24: G protein-coupled receptors
- 2023
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In: BRITISH JOURNAL OF PHARMACOLOGY. - : British pharmacological society. - 0007-1188 .- 1476-5381. ; 180
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The Concise Guide to PHARMACOLOGY 2023/24 is the sixth in this series of biennial publications. The Concise Guide provides concise overviews, mostly in tabular format, of the key properties of approximately 1800 drug targets, and about 6000 interactions with about 3900 ligands. There is an emphasis on selective pharmacology (where available), plus links to the open access knowledgebase source of drug targets and their ligands (), which provides more detailed views of target and ligand properties. Although the Concise Guide constitutes almost 500 pages, the material presented is substantially reduced compared to information and links presented on the website. It provides a permanent, citable, point-in-time record that will survive database updates. The full contents of this section can be found at . G protein-coupled receptors are one of the six major pharmacological targets into which the Guide is divided, with the others being: ion channels, nuclear hormone receptors, catalytic receptors, enzymes and transporters. These are presented with nomenclature guidance and summary information on the best available pharmacological tools, alongside key references and suggestions for further reading. The landscape format of the Concise Guide is designed to facilitate comparison of related targets from material contemporary to mid-2023, and supersedes data presented in the 2021/22, 2019/20, 2017/18, 2015/16 and 2013/14 Concise Guides and previous Guides to Receptors and Channels. It is produced in close conjunction with the Nomenclature and Standards Committee of the International Union of Basic and Clinical Pharmacology (NC-IUPHAR), therefore, providing official IUPHAR classification and nomenclature for human drug targets, where appropriate.
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| 4. |
- Salganik, E., et al.
(author)
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Temporal evolution of under-ice meltwater layers and false bottoms and their impact on summer Arctic sea ice mass balance
- 2023
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In: Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene. - 2325-1026. ; 11:1
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Low-salinity meltwater from Arctic sea ice and its snow cover accumulates and creates under-ice meltwater layers below sea ice. These meltwater layers can result in the formation of new ice layers, or false bottoms, at the interface of this low-salinity meltwater and colder seawater. As part of the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of the Arctic Climate (MOSAiC), we used a combination of sea ice coring, temperature profiles from thermistor strings and underwater multibeam sonar surveys with a remotely operated vehicle (ROV) to study the areal coverage and temporal evolution of under-ice meltwater layers and false bottoms during the summer melt season from mid-June until late July. ROV surveys indicated that the areal coverage of false bottoms for a part of the MOSAiC Central Observatory (350 by 200 m2) was 21%. Presence of false bottoms reduced bottom ice melt by 7-8% due to the local decrease in the ocean heat flux, which can be described by a thermodynamic model. Under-ice meltwater layer thickness was larger below first-year ice and thinner below thicker second-year ice. We also found that thick ice and ridge keels confined the areas in which under-ice meltwater accumulated, preventing its mixing with underlying seawater. While a thermodynamic model could reproduce false bottom growth and melt, it could not describe the observed bottom melt rates of the ice above false bottoms. We also show that the evolution of under-ice meltwaterlayer salinity below first-year ice is linked to brine flushing from the above sea ice and accumulating in the meltwater layer above the false bottom. The results of this study aid in estimating the contribution of underice meltwater layers and false bottoms to the mass balance and salt budget for Arctic summer sea ice.
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