| 1. |
- Hageman, S., et al.
(author)
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SCORE2 risk prediction algorithms: new models to estimate 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease in Europe
- 2021
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In: European Heart Journal. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0195-668X .- 1522-9645. ; 42:25, s. 2439-2454
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Aims The aim of this study was to develop, validate, and illustrate an updated prediction model (SCORE2) to estimate 10-year fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in individuals without previous CVD or diabetes aged 40-69 years in Europe. Methods and results We derived risk prediction models using individual-participant data from 45 cohorts in 13 countries (677 684 individuals, 30 121 CVD events). We used sex-specific and competing risk-adjusted models, including age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, and total- and HDL-cholesterol. We defined four risk regions in Europe according to country-specific CVD mortality, recalibrating models to each region using expected incidences and risk factor distributions. Region-specific incidence was estimated using CVD mortality and incidence data on 10 776 466 individuals. For external validation, we analysed data from 25 additional cohorts in 15 European countries (1 133 181 individuals, 43 492 CVD events). After applying the derived risk prediction models to external validation cohorts, C-indices ranged from 0.67 (0.65-0.68) to 0.81 (0.76-0.86). Predicted CVD risk varied several-fold across European regions. For example, the estimated 10-year CVD risk for a 50-year-old smoker, with a systolic blood pressure of 140 mmHg, total cholesterol of 5.5 mmol/L, and HDL-cholesterol of 1.3 mmol/L, ranged from 5.9% for men in low- risk countries to 14.0% for men in very high-risk countries, and from 4.2% for women in low-risk countries to 13.7% for women in very high-risk countries. Conclusion SCORE2-a new algorithm derived, calibrated, and validated to predict 10-year risk of first-onset CVD in European populations-enhances the identification of individuals at higher risk of developing CVD across Europe.
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| 2. |
- Gaziano, Liam, et al.
(author)
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Mild-to-moderate kidney dysfunction and cardiovascular disease : Observational and mendelian randomization analyses
- 2022
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In: Circulation. - : Wolters Kluwer. - 0009-7322 .- 1524-4539. ; 146:20, s. 1507-1517
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND: End-stage renal disease is associated with a high risk of cardiovascular events. It is unknown, however, whether mild-to-moderate kidney dysfunction is causally related to coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke.METHODS: Observational analyses were conducted using individual-level data from 4 population data sources (Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration, EPIC-CVD [European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Cardiovascular Disease Study], Million Veteran Program, and UK Biobank), comprising 648 135 participants with no history of cardiovascular disease or diabetes at baseline, yielding 42 858 and 15 693 incident CHD and stroke events, respectively, during 6.8 million person-years of follow-up. Using a genetic risk score of 218 variants for estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), we conducted Mendelian randomization analyses involving 413 718 participants (25 917 CHD and 8622 strokes) in EPIC-CVD, Million Veteran Program, and UK Biobank.RESULTS: There were U-shaped observational associations of creatinine-based eGFR with CHD and stroke, with higher risk in participants with eGFR values <60 or >105 mL·min-1·1.73 m-2, compared with those with eGFR between 60 and 105 mL·min-1·1.73 m-2. Mendelian randomization analyses for CHD showed an association among participants with eGFR <60 mL·min-1·1.73 m-2, with a 14% (95% CI, 3%-27%) higher CHD risk per 5 mL·min-1·1.73 m-2 lower genetically predicted eGFR, but not for those with eGFR >105 mL·min-1·1.73 m-2. Results were not materially different after adjustment for factors associated with the eGFR genetic risk score, such as lipoprotein(a), triglycerides, hemoglobin A1c, and blood pressure. Mendelian randomization results for stroke were nonsignificant but broadly similar to those for CHD.CONCLUSIONS: In people without manifest cardiovascular disease or diabetes, mild-to-moderate kidney dysfunction is causally related to risk of CHD, highlighting the potential value of preventive approaches that preserve and modulate kidney function.
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| 3. |
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| 4. |
- Guida, Florence, et al.
(author)
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The blood metabolome of incident kidney cancer: A case-control study nested within the MetKid consortium
- 2021
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In: PLoS Medicine. - : Public Library of Science (PLOS). - 1549-1277 .- 1549-1676. ; 18:9
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Excess bodyweight and related metabolic perturbations have been implicated in kidney cancer aetiology, but the specific molecular mechanisms underlying these relationships are poorly understood. In this study, we sought to identify circulating metabolites that predispose kidney cancer and to evaluate the extent to which they are influenced by body mass index (BMI).Methods and findings: We assessed the association between circulating levels of 1,416 metabolites and incident kidney cancer using pre-diagnostic blood samples from up to 1,305 kidney cancer case–control pairs from 5 prospective cohort studies. Cases were diagnosed on average 8 years after blood collection. We found 25 metabolites robustly associated with kidney cancer risk. In particular, 14 glycerophospholipids (GPLs) were inversely associated with risk, including 8 phosphatidylcholines (PCs) and 2 plasmalogens. The PC with the strongest association was PC ae C34:3 with an odds ratio (OR) for 1 standard deviation (SD) increment of 0.75 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.68 to 0.83, p = 2.6 × 10−8). In contrast, 4 amino acids, including glutamate (OR for 1 SD = 1.39, 95% CI: 1.20 to 1.60, p = 1.6 × 10−5), were positively associated with risk. Adjusting for BMI partly attenuated the risk association for some—but not all—metabolites, whereas other known risk factors of kidney cancer, such as smoking and alcohol consumption, had minimal impact on the observed associations. A mendelian randomisation (MR) analysis of the influence of BMI on the blood metabolome highlighted that some metabolites associated with kidney cancer risk are influenced by BMI. Specifically, elevated BMI appeared to decrease levels of several GPLs that were also found inversely associated with kidney cancer risk (e.g., −0.17 SD change [ßBMI] in 1-(1-enyl-palmitoyl)-2-linoleoyl-GPC (P-16:0/18:2) levels per SD change in BMI, p = 3.4 × 10−5). BMI was also associated with increased levels of glutamate (ßBMI: 0.12, p = 1.5 × 10−3). While our results were robust across the participating studies, they were limited to study participants of European descent, and it will, therefore, be important to evaluate if our findings can be generalised to populations with different genetic backgrounds.Conclusions: This study suggests a potentially important role of the blood metabolome in kidney cancer aetiology by highlighting a wide range of metabolites associated with the risk of developing kidney cancer and the extent to which changes in levels of these metabolites are driven by BMI - the principal modifiable risk factor of kidney cancer.
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| 5. |
- Mayén, Ana Lucia, et al.
(author)
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A longitudinal evaluation of alcohol intake throughout adulthood and colorectal cancer risk
- 2022
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In: European Journal of Epidemiology. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0393-2990 .- 1573-7284. ; 37:9, s. 915-929
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Alcohol intake is an established risk factor for colorectal cancer (CRC); however, there is limited knowledge on whether changing alcohol drinking habits during adulthood modifies CRC risk. Objective: Leveraging longitudinal exposure assessments on alcohol intake at different ages, we examined the relationship between change in alcohol intake and subsequent CRC risk. Methods: Within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition, changes in alcohol intake comparing follow-up with baseline assessments were investigated in relation to CRC risk. The analysis included 191,180, participants and 1530 incident CRC cases, with exclusion of the first three years of follow-up to minimize reverse causation. Trajectory profiles of alcohol intake, assessed at ages 20, 30, 40, 50 years, at baseline and during follow-up, were estimated using latent class mixed models and related to CRC risk, including 407,605 participants and 5,008 incident CRC cases. Results: Mean age at baseline was 50.2 years and the follow-up assessment occurred on average 7.1 years later. Compared to stable intake, a 12 g/day increase in alcohol intake during follow-up was positively associated with CRC risk (HR = 1.15, 95%CI 1.04, 1.25), while a 12 g/day reduction was inversely associated with CRC risk (HR = 0.86, 95%CI 0.78, 0.95). Trajectory analysis showed that compared to low alcohol intake, men who increased their alcohol intake from early- to mid- and late-adulthood by up to 30 g/day on average had significantly increased CRC risk (HR = 1.24; 95%CI 1.08, 1.42), while no associations were observed in women. Results were consistent by anatomical subsite. Conclusions: Increasing alcohol intake during mid-to-late adulthood raised CRC risk, while reduction lowered risk.
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| 6. |
- Sieri, Sabina, et al.
(author)
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Glycemic index, glycemic load, and risk of coronary heart disease : a pan-European cohort study
- 2020
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In: The American journal of clinical nutrition. - : Elsevier BV. - 1938-3207 .- 0002-9165. ; 112:3, s. 631-643
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND: High carbohydrate intake raises blood triglycerides, glucose, and insulin; reduces HDLs; and may increase risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). Epidemiological studies indicate that high dietary glycemic index (GI) and glycemic load (GL) are associated with increased CHD risk. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to determine whether dietary GI, GL, and available carbohydrates are associated with CHD risk in both sexes. METHODS: This large prospective study-the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-consisted of 338,325 participants who completed a dietary questionnaire. HRs with 95% CIs for a CHD event, in relation to intake of GI, GL, and carbohydrates, were estimated using covariate-adjusted Cox proportional hazard models. RESULTS: After 12.8 y (median), 6378 participants had experienced a CHD event. High GL was associated with greater CHD risk [HR 1.16 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.31) highest vs. lowest quintile, p-trend 0.035; HR 1.18 (95% CI: 1.07, 1.29) per 50 g/day of GL intake]. The association between GL and CHD risk was evident in subjects with BMI (in kg/m2) ≥25 [HR: 1.22 (95% CI: 1.11, 1.35) per 50 g/d] but not in those with BMI <25 [HR: 1.09 (95% CI: 0.98, 1.22) per 50 g/d) (P-interaction = 0.022). The GL-CHD association did not differ between men [HR: 1.19 (95% CI: 1.08, 1.30) per 50 g/d] and women [HR: 1.22 (95% CI: 1.07, 1.40) per 50 g/d] (test for interaction not significant). GI was associated with CHD risk only in the continuous model [HR: 1.04 (95% CI: 1.00, 1.08) per 5 units/d]. High available carbohydrate was associated with greater CHD risk [HR: 1.11 (95% CI: 1.03, 1.18) per 50 g/d]. High sugar intake was associated with greater CHD risk [HR: 1.09 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.17) per 50 g/d]. CONCLUSIONS: This large pan-European study provides robust additional support for the hypothesis that a diet that induces a high glucose response is associated with greater CHD risk.
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| 7. |
- Tong, Tammy Y. N., et al.
(author)
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Dietary amino acids and risk of stroke subtypes : a prospective analysis of 356,000 participants in seven European countries
- 2024
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In: European Journal of Nutrition. - : Springer Nature. - 1436-6207 .- 1436-6215. ; 63, s. 209-220
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Purpose: Previously reported associations of protein-rich foods with stroke subtypes have prompted interest in the assessment of individual amino acids. We examined the associations of dietary amino acids with risks of ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke in the EPIC study.Methods: We analysed data from 356,142 participants from seven European countries. Dietary intakes of 19 individual amino acids were assessed using validated country-specific dietary questionnaires, calibrated using additional 24-h dietary recalls. Multivariable-adjusted Cox regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke in relation to the intake of each amino acid. The role of blood pressure as a potential mechanism was assessed in 267,642 (75%) participants.Results: After a median follow-up of 12.9 years, 4295 participants had an ischaemic stroke and 1375 participants had a haemorrhagic stroke. After correction for multiple testing, a higher intake of proline (as a percent of total protein) was associated with a 12% lower risk of ischaemic stroke (HR per 1 SD higher intake 0.88; 95% CI 0.82, 0.94). The association persisted after mutual adjustment for all other amino acids, systolic and diastolic blood pressure. The inverse associations of isoleucine, leucine, valine, phenylalanine, threonine, tryptophan, glutamic acid, serine and tyrosine with ischaemic stroke were each attenuated with adjustment for proline intake. For haemorrhagic stroke, no statistically significant associations were observed in the continuous analyses after correcting for multiple testing.Conclusion: Higher proline intake may be associated with a lower risk of ischaemic stroke, independent of other dietary amino acids and blood pressure.
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| 8. |
- Wu, Wendy Yi-Ying, et al.
(author)
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Assessment of the EarlyCDT-Lung test as an early biomarker of lung cancer in ever-smokers : A retrospective nested case-control study in two prospective cohorts
- 2023
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In: International Journal of Cancer. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 0020-7136 .- 1097-0215. ; 152:9, s. 2002-2010
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The EarlyCDT-Lung test is a blood-based autoantibody assay intended to identify high-risk individuals for low-dose computed tomography lung cancer screening. However, there is a paucity of evidence on the performance of the EarlyCDT-Lung test in ever-smokers. We conducted a nested case-control study within two prospective cohorts to evaluate the risk-discriminatory performance of the EarlyCDT-Lung test using prediagnostic blood samples from 154 future lung cancer cases and 154 matched controls. Cases were selected from those who had ever smoked and had a prediagnostic blood sample <3 years prior to diagnosis. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate the association between EarlyCDT-Lung test results and lung cancer risk. Sensitivity and specificity of the EarlyCDT-Lung test were calculated in all subjects and subgroups based on age, smoking history, lung cancer stage, sample collection time before diagnosis and year of sample collection. The overall lung cancer odds ratios were 0.89 (95% CI: 0.34-2.30) for a moderate risk EarlyCDT-Lung test result and 1.09 (95% CI: 0.48-2.47) for a high-risk test result compared to no significant test result. The overall sensitivity was 8.4% (95% CI: 4.6-14) and overall specificity was 92% (95% CI: 87-96) when considering a high-risk result as positive. Stratified analysis indicated higher sensitivity (17%, 95% CI: 7.2-32.1) in subjects with blood drawn up to 1 year prior to diagnosis. In conclusion, our study does not support a role of the EarlyCDT-Lung test in identifying the high-risk subjects in ever-smokers for lung cancer screening in the EPIC and NSHDS cohorts.
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| 9. |
- Zheng, Ju Sheng, et al.
(author)
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Plasma Vitamin C and type 2 diabetes : Genome-wide association study and mendelian randomization analysis in European populations
- 2021
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In: Diabetes Care. - : American Diabetes Association. - 0149-5992 .- 1935-5548. ; 44:1, s. 98-106
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- OBJECTIVE Higher plasma vitamin C levels are associated with lower type 2 diabetes risk, but whether this association is causal is uncertain. To investigate this, we studied the association of genetically predicted plasma vitamin C with type 2 diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS We conducted genome-wide association studies of plasma vitamin C among 52,018 individuals of European ancestry to discover novel genetic variants. We performed Mendelian randomization analyses to estimate the association of genetically predicted differences in plasma vitamin C with type 2 diabetes in up to 80,983 case participants and 842,909 noncase participants. We compared this estimate with the observational association between plasma vitamin C and incident type 2 diabetes, including 8,133 case participants and 11,073 noncase participants. RESULTS We identified 11 genomic regions associated with plasma vitamin C (P < 5 ☓ 10-8), with the strongest signal at SLC23A1, and 10 novel genetic loci including SLC23A3, CHPT1, BCAS3, SNRPF, RER1, MAF, GSTA5, RGS14, AKT1, and FADS1. Plasma vitamin C was inversely associated with type 2 diabetes (hazard ratio per SD 0.88; 95% CI 0.82, 0.94), but there was no association between genetically predicted plasma vitamin C (excluding FADS1 variant due to its apparent pleiotropic effect) and type 2 diabetes (1.03; 95% CI 0.96, 1.10). CONCLUSIONS These findings indicate discordance between biochemically measured and genetically predicted plasma vitamin C levels in the association with type 2 diabetes among European populations. The null Mendelian randomization findings provide no strong evidence to suggest the use of vitamin C supplementation for type 2 diabetes prevention.
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| 10. |
- Zhong, Jun, et al.
(author)
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A Transcriptome-Wide Association Study Identifies Novel Candidate Susceptibility Genes for Pancreatic Cancer
- 2020
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In: Journal of the National Cancer Institute. - : Oxford University Press. - 0027-8874 .- 1460-2105. ; 112:10
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Although 20 pancreatic cancer susceptibility loci have been identified through genome-wide association studies in individuals of European ancestry, much of its heritability remains unexplained and the genes responsible largely unknown. Methods: To discover novel pancreatic cancer risk loci and possible causal genes, we performed a pancreatic cancer transcriptome-wide association study in Europeans using three approaches: FUSION, MetaXcan, and Summary-MulTiXcan. We integrated genome-wide association studies summary statistics from 9040 pancreatic cancer cases and 12 496 controls, with gene expression prediction models built using transcriptome data from histologically normal pancreatic tissue samples (NCI Laboratory of Translational Genomics [n = 95] and Genotype-Tissue Expression v7 [n = 174] datasets) and data from 48 different tissues (Genotype-Tissue Expression v7, n = 74-421 samples). Results: We identified 25 genes whose genetically predicted expression was statistically significantly associated with pancreatic cancer risk (false discovery rate < .05), including 14 candidate genes at 11 novel loci (1p36.12: CELA3B; 9q31.1: SMC2, SMC2-AS1; 10q23.31: RP11-80H5.9; 12q13.13: SMUG1; 14q32.33: BTBD6; 15q23: HEXA; 15q26.1: RCCD1; 17q12: PNMT, CDK12, PGAP3; 17q22: SUPT4H1; 18q11.22: RP11-888D10.3; and 19p13.11: PGPEPI) and 11 at six known risk loci (5p15.33: TERT, CLPTMIL, ZDHHCIIB; 7p14.1: INHBA; 9q34.2: ABO; 13q12.2: PDX1; 13q22.1: KLF5; and 16q23.1: WDR59, CFDP1, BCAR1, TMEM170A). The association for 12 of these genes (CELA3B, SMC2, and PNMT at novel risk loci and TERT, CLPTMIL, INHBA, ABO, PDX1, KLF5, WDR59, CFDP1, and BCAR1 at known loci) remained statistically significant after Bonferroni correction. Conclusions: By integrating gene expression and genotype data, we identified novel pancreatic cancer risk loci and candidate functional genes that warrant further investigation.
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