| 1. |
- Biru Paksha, Paul, et al.
(author)
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Energy and output dynamics in Bangladesh
- 2011
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In: Energy Economics. - : Elsevier. - 0140-9883 .- 1873-6181. ; 33:3, s. 480-487
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The relationship between energy consumption and output is still ambiguous in the existing literature. The economy of Bangladesh, having spectacular output growth and rising energy demand as well as energy efficiency in recent decades, can be an ideal case for examining energy-output dynamics. We find that while fluctuations in energy consumption do not affect output fluctuations, movements in output inversely affect movements in energy use. The results of Granger causality tests in this respect are consistent with those of innovative accounting that includes variance decompositions and impulse responses. Autoregressive distributed lag models also suggest a role of output in Bangladesh's energy use. Hence, the findings of this study have policy implications for other developing nations where measures for energy conservation and efficiency can be relevant in policymaking.
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| 2. |
- Di Corato, Luca
(author)
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Investing in biogas: Timing, technological choice and the value of flexibility from input mix
- 2011
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In: Energy Economics. - : Elsevier BV. - 0140-9883 .- 1873-6181. ; 33, s. 1186-1193
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- In a stochastic dynamic frame, we study the technology choice problem of a continuous co-digestion biogas plant where input factors are substitutes but need to be mixed together to provide output. Given any initial rule for the composition of the feedstock, we consider the possibility of revising it if economic circumstances make it profitable. Flexibility in the mix is an advantage under randomly fluctuating input costs and comes at a higher investment cost. We show that the degree of flexibility in the productive technology installed depends on the value of the option to profitably re-arrange the input mix. Such option adds value to the project in that it provides a device for hedging against fluctuations in the input relative convenience. Accounting for such value we discuss the trade-off between investment timing and profit smoothing flexibility. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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| 3. |
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| 4. |
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| 5. |
- Hellström, Jörgen, 1970-, et al.
(author)
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Why do electricity prices jump? : Empirical evidence from the Nordic electricity market
- 2012
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In: Energy Economics. - : Elsevier. - 0140-9883 .- 1873-6181. ; 34:6, s. 1774-1781
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The paper empirically explores the possible causes behind electricity price jumps in the Nordic electricity market, Nord Pool. A time-series model (a mixed GARCH–EARJI jump model) capturing the common statistical features of electricity prices is used to identify price jumps. By the model, a categorical variable is defined distinguishing no, positive and negative jumps. The causes for the jumps are then explored through the use of ordered probit models in a second stage. The empirical results indicate that the structure of the market plays an important role in whether shocks in the demand and supply for electricity translate into price jumps.
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| 6. |
- Heshmati, Almas, et al.
(author)
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Estimation of productivity in Korean electric power plants : A semiparametric smooth coefficient model
- 2014
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In: Energy Economics. - : Elsevier BV. - 0140-9883 .- 1873-6181. ; 45, s. 491-500
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This paper analyzes the impact of load factor, facility and generator types on the productivity of Korean electric power plants. In order to capture important differences in the effect of load policy on power output, we use a semiparametric smooth coefficient (SPSC) model that allows us to model heterogeneous performances across power plants and over time by allowing underlying technologies to be heterogeneous. The SPSC model accommodates both continuous and discrete covariates. Various specification tests are conducted to assess the performance of the SPSC model. Using a unique generator level panel dataset spanning the period 1995-2006, we find that the impact of load factor, generator and facility types on power generation varies substantially in terms of magnitude and significance across different plant characteristics. The results have strong implications for generation policy in Korea as outlined in this study. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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| 7. |
- Heydari, Somayeh, et al.
(author)
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Valuing a gas-fired power plant : A comparison of ordinary linear models, regime-switching approaches, and models with stochastic volatility
- 2010
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In: Energy Economics. - : Elsevier BV. - 0140-9883 .- 1873-6181. ; 32:3, s. 709-725
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Energy prices are often highly volatile with unexpected spikes. Capturing these sudden spikes may lead to more informed decision-making in energy investments, such as valuing gas-fired power plants, than ignoring them. In this paper, non-linear regime-switching models and models with mean-reverting stochastic volatility are compared with ordinary linear models. The study is performed using UK electricity and natural gas daily spot prices and suggests that with the aim of valuing a gas-fired power plant with and without operational flexibility, non-linear models with stochastic volatility, specifically for logarithms of electricity prices, provide better out-of-sample forecasts than both linear models and regime-switching models.
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| 8. |
- Jakobsson, Kristofer, et al.
(author)
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Oil exploration and perceptions of scarcity : The fallacy of early success
- 2012
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In: Energy Economics. - : Elsevier BV. - 0140-9883 .- 1873-6181. ; 34:4, s. 1226-1233
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- It has been suggested that oil exploration may lead to false perceptions of decreasing scarcity. We perform a simulation of the exploration process using Bayesian updating. The approach enables us to isolate the information effect on the success rate and also to quantify the subjective expectation of the total resource size. The area under exploration consists of a number of regions which may differ in their oil content. Exploration is performed with the goal to maximize the expected success rate. The resulting information about the distribution of oil and the total resource size is assumed public knowledge. A number of scenarios with variations in the dimensions of the area under exploration, the oil distribution and initial beliefs are considered. The results indicate that the information effect on the success rate is significant but brief — it might have a considerable impact on price but is an unlikely mechanism behind a long-term declining price trend. However, the information effect on expectations is gradual and persistent. Since exploration is performed in regions where the expected success rate is the highest, the historical success rate will not be representative of the area as a whole. An explorer will tend to overestimate the total resource size, thereby suggesting an alternative mechanism for false perceptions of decreasing scarcity, a mechanism that could be called the “fallacy of early success”.
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| 9. |
- Jaraite, Jurate, et al.
(author)
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Efficiency, productivity and environmental policy : A case study of power generation in the EU
- 2012
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In: Energy Economics. - : Elsevier. - 0140-9883 .- 1873-6181. ; 34:5, s. 1557-1568
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This study uses the EU public power generating sector as a case study to investigate the environmental efficiency and productivity enhancing performance of the European Union's CO2 Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) in its first phase. Using Data Envelopment Analysis methods, we measure the environmental efficiency and the productivity growth registered in public power generation across the EU over the 1996–2007 period. In the second stage of our analysis we attempt to explain changes in productivity and efficiency over time using econometric techniques. Our analysis suggests two conclusions: carbon pricing led to an increase in environmental efficiency and to a shift outwards of the technological frontier; and, the overly generous allocation of emission permits had a negative impact on both measures. These results are shown to be robust to changes in controls and specifications.
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| 10. |
- Jaraite, Jurate, et al.
(author)
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The profitability of electricity generating firms and policies promoting renewable energy
- 2013
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In: Energy Economics. - : Elsevier. - 0140-9883 .- 1873-6181. ; 40, s. 858-865
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Using a cross-country firm-level dataset this study empirically analyses how the implemented renewable electricity promotion systems Tradable Green Certificates vs. Feed-in-Tariffs affected the profitability of the electricity production sector in Europe during the 2002-2010 period. In particular, it tests the hypothesis that due to market imperfections, namely because of higher investment risk, higher capital constraints and higher transaction costs, TGC schemes will be associated with excess profits for renewable electricity generating firms. The results somewhat support this hypothesis, showing that electricity generating firms, operating in EU countries that implemented TGC, were more profitable compared to FIT firms.
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