| 1. |
- Antão, Laura H., et al.
(author)
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Climate change reshuffles northern species within their niches
- 2022
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In: Nature Climate Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1758-678X .- 1758-6798. ; 12:6, s. 587-592
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Climate change is a pervasive threat to biodiversity. While range shifts are a known consequence of climate warming contributing to regional community change, less is known about how species’ positions shift within their climatic niches. Furthermore, whether the relative importance of different climatic variables prompting such shifts varies with changing climate remains unclear. Here we analysed four decades of data for 1,478 species of birds, mammals, butterflies, moths, plants and phytoplankton along a 1,200 km high latitudinal gradient. The relative importance of climatic drivers varied non-uniformly with progressing climate change. While species turnover among decades was limited, the relative position of species within their climatic niche shifted substantially. A greater proportion of species responded to climatic change at higher latitudes, where changes were stronger. These diverging climate imprints restructure a full biome, making it difficult to generalize biodiversity responses and raising concerns about ecosystem integrity in the face of accelerating climate change.
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| 2. |
- Asayama, Shinichiro, et al.
(author)
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Three institutional pathways to envision the future of the IPCC
- 2023
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In: Nature Climate Change. - : Nature Portfolio. - 1758-678X .- 1758-6798. ; 13:9, s. 877-880
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The IPCC has been successful at building its scientific authority, but it will require institutional reform for staying relevant to new and changing political contexts. Exploring a range of alternative future pathways for the IPCC can help guide crucial decisions about redefining its purpose.
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| 3. |
- Barnes, Michele L., et al.
(author)
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Social determinants of adaptive and transformative responses to climate change
- 2020
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In: Nature Climate Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1758-678X .- 1758-6798. ; 10:9, s. 823-828
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- To cope effectively with the impacts of climate change, people will need to change existing practices or behaviours within existing social-ecological systems (adaptation) or enact more fundamental changes that can alter dominant social-ecological relationships and create new systems or futures (transformation). Here we use multilevel network modelling to examine how different domains of adaptive capacity-assets, flexibility, organization, learning, socio-cognitive constructs and agency-are related to adaptive and transformative actions. We find evidence consistent with an influence process in which aspects of social organization (exposure to others in social networks) encourage both adaptive and transformative actions among Papua New Guinean islanders experiencing climate change impacts. Adaptive and transformative actions are also related to social-ecological network structures between people and ecological resources that enable learning and the internalization of ecological feedbacks. Agency is also key, yet we show that while perceived power may encourage adaptations, it may discourage more transformative actions. Multilevel network modelling shows that social network exposure promotes both adaptive and transformative responses to climate change among Papua New Guinean islanders. Different social-ecological network structures are associated with adaptation versus transformation.
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| 4. |
- Berghuijs, Wouter R., et al.
(author)
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Groundwater recharge is sensitive to changing long-term aridity
- 2024
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In: Nature Climate Change. - 1758-678X .- 1758-6798. ; 14, s. 357-363
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Sustainable groundwater use relies on adequate rates of groundwater recharge, which are expected to change with climate change. However, climate impacts on recharge remain uncertain due to a paucity of measurements of recharge trends globally. Here we leverage the relationship between climatic aridity and long-term recharge measurements at 5,237 locations globally to identify regions where recharge is most sensitive to changes in climatic aridity. Recharge is most sensitive to climate changes in regions where potential evapotranspiration slightly exceeds precipitation, meaning even modest aridification can substantially decrease groundwater recharge. Future climate-induced recharge changes are expected to be dominated by precipitation changes, whereby changes in groundwater recharge will be amplified relative to precipitation changes. Recharge is more sensitive to changes in aridity than global hydrological models suggest. Consequently, the effects of climatic changes on groundwater replenishment and their impacts on the sustainability of groundwater use by humans and ecosystems probably exceed previous predictions.
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| 5. |
- Bergquist, Magnus, 1983, et al.
(author)
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Meta-analyses of fifteen determinants of public opinion about climate change taxes and laws
- 2022
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In: Nature Climate Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1758-678X .- 1758-6798. ; 12, s. 235-240
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Public acceptance is a precondition for implementing taxes and laws aimed at mitigating climate change. However, it still remains challenging to understand its determinants for the climate community. Here, we use a meta-analytic approach to examine the role of public opinion about climate change taxes and laws. Fifteen variables were examined by synthesizing 89 datasets from 51 articles across 33 countries, with a total sample of 119,465 participants. Among all factors, perceived fairness and effectiveness were the most important determinants. Self-enhancement values and knowledge about climate change showed weak relationships and demographic variables showed only weak or close to zero effects. Our meta-analytic results provide useful insights and have the potential to inform climate change researchers, practitioners and policymakers to better design climate policy instruments.
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| 6. |
- Bergquist, Magnus, 1983, et al.
(author)
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The importance of perceived fairness to public opinion about climate change policies
- 2022
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In: Nature Climate Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1758-678X .- 1758-6798. ; 12, s. 226-227
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This is a "Research Briefing" summarizing Bergquist et al. (2022) Meta-analyses of fifteen determinants of public opinion about climate change taxes and laws. Nat. Clim. Change https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01297-6
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| 7. |
- Bi, Stephen L., et al.
(author)
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Coal-exit alliance must confront freeriding sectors to propel Paris-aligned momentum
- 2023
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In: Nature Climate Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1758-6798 .- 1758-678X. ; 13:2, s. 130-139
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The global phase-out of coal by mid-century is considered vital to the Paris Agreement to limit warming well-below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. Since the inception of the Powering Past Coal Alliance (PPCA) at COP23, political ambitions to accelerate the decline of coal have mounted to become the foremost priority at COP26. However, mitigation research lacks the tools to assess whether this bottom-up momentum can self-propagate toward Paris alignment. Here, we introduce dynamic policy evaluation (DPE), an evidence-based approach for emulating real-world policy-making. Given empirical relationships established between energy-economic developments and policy adoption, we endogenize national political decision-making into the integrated assessment model REMIND via multistage feedback loops with a probabilistic coalition accession model. DPE finds global PPCA participation <5% likely against a current policies backdrop and, counterintuitively, foresees that intracoalition leakage risks may severely compromise sector-specific, demand-side action. DPE further enables policies to interact endogenously, demonstrated here by the PPCA’s path-dependence to COVID-19 recovery investments.
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| 8. |
- Björkman, Anne, 1981, et al.
(author)
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Winter in a warming Arctic
- 2020
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In: Nature Climate Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1758-678X .- 1758-6798. ; 10, s. 1071-1073
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Winter conditions have typically been downplayed or oversimplified in past estimations of terrestrial Arctic vegetation shifts in relation to climate change. A study now demonstrates the importance of fine-scale variation in winter temperature in explaining the composition and diversity of Arctic plant communities.
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| 9. |
- Blume-Werry, Gesche, 1985-
(author)
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The belowground growing season
- 2022
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In: Nature Climate Change. - : Nature Publishing Group. - 1758-678X .- 1758-6798. ; 12, s. 11-12
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Journal article (other academic/artistic)
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| 10. |
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