1. |
- Breznau, Nate, et al.
(author)
-
Observing many researchers using the same data and hypothesis reveals a hidden universe of uncertainty
- 2022
-
In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. - : National Academy of Sciences. - 0027-8424 .- 1091-6490. ; 119:44
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This study explores how researchers analytical choices affect the reliability of scientific findings. Most discussions of reliability problems in science focus on systematic biases. We broaden the lens to emphasize the idiosyncrasy of conscious and unconscious decisions that researchers make during data analysis. We coordinated 161 researchers in 73 research teams and observed their research decisions as they used the same data to independently test the same prominent social science hypothesis: that greater immigration reduces support for social policies among the public. In this typical case of social science research, research teams reported both widely diverging numerical findings and substantive conclusions despite identical start conditions. Researchers expertise, prior beliefs, and expectations barely predict the wide variation in research outcomes. More than 95% of the total variance in numerical results remains unexplained even after qualitative coding of all identifiable decisions in each teams workflow. This reveals a universe of uncertainty that remains hidden when considering a single study in isolation. The idiosyncratic nature of how researchers results and conclusions varied is a previously underappreciated explanation for why many scientific hypotheses remain contested. These results call for greater epistemic humility and clarity in reporting scientific findings.
|
|
2. |
- Unsalan, Ozan, et al.
(author)
-
The Sariçiçek howardite fall in Turkey : Source crater of HED meteorites on Vesta and impact risk of Vestoids
- 2019
-
In: Meteoritics and Planetary Science. - Hoboken : John Wiley & Sons. - 1086-9379 .- 1945-5100. ; 54:5, s. 953-1008
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The Sariçiçek howardite meteorite shower consisting of 343 documented stones occurred on September 2, 2015 in Turkey and is the first documented howardite fall. Cosmogenic isotopes show that Sariçiçek experienced a complex cosmic‐ray exposure history, exposed during ~12–14 Ma in a regolith near the surface of a parent asteroid, and that an ~1 m sized meteoroid was launched by an impact 22 ± 2 Ma ago to Earth (as did one‐third of all HED meteorites). SIMS dating of zircon and baddeleyite yielded 4550.4 ± 2.5 Ma and 4553 ± 8.8 Ma crystallization ages for the basaltic magma clasts. The apatite U‐Pb age of 4525 ± 17 Ma, K‐Ar age of ~3.9 Ga, and the U,Th‐He ages of 1.8 ± 0.7 and 2.6 ± 0.3 Ga are interpreted to represent thermal metamorphic and impact‐related resetting ages, respectively. Petrographic; geochemical; and O‐, Cr‐, and Ti‐isotopic studies confirm that Sariçiçek belongs to the normal clan of HED meteorites. Petrographic observations and analysis of organic material indicate a small portion of carbonaceous chondrite material in the Sariçiçek regolith and organic contamination of the meteorite after a few days on soil. Video observations of the fall show an atmospheric entry at 17.3 ± 0.8 km s−1 from NW; fragmentations at 37, 33, 31, and 27 km altitude; and provide a pre‐atmospheric orbit that is the first dynamical link between the normal HED meteorite clan and the inner Main Belt. Spectral data indicate the similarity of Sariçiçek with the Vesta asteroid family (V‐class) spectra, a group of asteroids stretching to delivery resonances, which includes (4) Vesta. Dynamical modeling of meteoroid delivery to Earth shows that the complete disruption of a ~1 km sized Vesta family asteroid or a ~10 km sized impact crater on Vesta is required to provide sufficient meteoroids ≤4 m in size to account for the influx of meteorites from this HED clan. The 16.7 km diameter Antionia impact crater on Vesta was formed on terrain of the same age as given by the 4He retention age of Sariçiçek. Lunar scaling for crater production to crater counts of its ejecta blanket show it was formed ~22 Ma ago.
|
|
3. |
- Arndt, D. S., et al.
(author)
-
State of the Climate in 2016
- 2017
-
In: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 98:8, s. S1-S280
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- In 2016, the dominant greenhouse gases released into Earth's atmosphere-carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide-continued to increase and reach new record highs. The 3.5 +/- 0.1 ppm rise in global annual mean carbon dioxide from 2015 to 2016 was the largest annual increase observed in the 58-year measurement record. The annual global average carbon dioxide concentration at Earth's surface surpassed 400 ppm (402.9 +/- 0.1 ppm) for the first time in the modern atmospheric measurement record and in ice core records dating back as far as 800000 years. One of the strongest El Nino events since at least 1950 dissipated in spring, and a weak La Nina evolved later in the year. Owing at least in part to the combination of El Nino conditions early in the year and a long-term upward trend, Earth's surface observed record warmth for a third consecutive year, albeit by a much slimmer margin than by which that record was set in 2015. Above Earth's surface, the annual lower troposphere temperature was record high according to all datasets analyzed, while the lower stratospheric temperature was record low according to most of the in situ and satellite datasets. Several countries, including Mexico and India, reported record high annual temperatures while many others observed near-record highs. A week-long heat wave at the end of April over the northern and eastern Indian peninsula, with temperatures surpassing 44 degrees C, contributed to a water crisis for 330 million people and to 300 fatalities. In the Arctic the 2016 land surface temperature was 2.0 degrees C above the 1981-2010 average, breaking the previous record of 2007, 2011, and 2015 by 0.8 degrees C, representing a 3.5 degrees C increase since the record began in 1900. The increasing temperatures have led to decreasing Arctic sea ice extent and thickness. On 24 March, the sea ice extent at the end of the growth season saw its lowest maximum in the 37-year satellite record, tying with 2015 at 7.2% below the 1981-2010 average. The September 2016 Arctic sea ice minimum extent tied with 2007 for the second lowest value on record, 33% lower than the 1981-2010 average. Arctic sea ice cover remains relatively young and thin, making it vulnerable to continued extensive melt. The mass of the Greenland Ice Sheet, which has the capacity to contribute similar to 7 m to sea level rise, reached a record low value. The onset of its surface melt was the second earliest, after 2012, in the 37-year satellite record. Sea surface temperature was record high at the global scale, surpassing the previous record of 2015 by about 0.01 degrees C. The global sea surface temperature trend for the 21st century-to-date of +0.162 degrees C decade(-1) is much higher than the longer term 1950-2016 trend of +0.100 degrees C decade(-1). Global annual mean sea level also reached a new record high, marking the sixth consecutive year of increase. Global annual ocean heat content saw a slight drop compared to the record high in 2015. Alpine glacier retreat continued around the globe, and preliminary data indicate that 2016 is the 37th consecutive year of negative annual mass balance. Across the Northern Hemisphere, snow cover for each month from February to June was among its four least extensive in the 47-year satellite record. Continuing a pattern below the surface, record high temperatures at 20-m depth were measured at all permafrost observatories on the North Slope of Alaska and at the Canadian observatory on northernmost Ellesmere Island. In the Antarctic, record low monthly surface pressures were broken at many stations, with the southern annular mode setting record high index values in March and June. Monthly high surface pressure records for August and November were set at several stations. During this period, record low daily and monthly sea ice extents were observed, with the November mean sea ice extent more than 5 standard deviations below the 1981-2010 average. These record low sea ice values contrast sharply with the record high values observed during 2012-14. Over the region, springtime Antarctic stratospheric ozone depletion was less severe relative to the 1991-2006 average, but ozone levels were still low compared to pre-1990 levels. Closer to the equator, 93 named tropical storms were observed during 2016, above the 1981-2010 average of 82, but fewer than the 101 storms recorded in 2015. Three basins-the North Atlantic, and eastern and western North Pacific-experienced above-normal activity in 2016. The Australian basin recorded its least active season since the beginning of the satellite era in 1970. Overall, four tropical cyclones reached the Saffir-Simpson category 5 intensity level. The strong El Nino at the beginning of the year that transitioned to a weak La Nina contributed to enhanced precipitation variability around the world. Wet conditions were observed throughout the year across southern South America, causing repeated heavy flooding in Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay. Wetter-than-usual conditions were also observed for eastern Europe and central Asia, alleviating the drought conditions of 2014 and 2015 in southern Russia. In the United States, California had its first wetter-than-average year since 2012, after being plagued by drought for several years. Even so, the area covered by drought in 2016 at the global scale was among the largest in the post-1950 record. For each month, at least 12% of land surfaces experienced severe drought conditions or worse, the longest such stretch in the record. In northeastern Brazil, drought conditions were observed for the fifth consecutive year, making this the longest drought on record in the region. Dry conditions were also observed in western Bolivia and Peru; it was Bolivia's worst drought in the past 25 years. In May, with abnormally warm and dry conditions already prevailing over western Canada for about a year, the human-induced Fort McMurray wildfire burned nearly 590000 hectares and became the costliest disaster in Canadian history, with $3 billion (U.S. dollars) in insured losses.
|
|
4. |
- Arndt, D. S., et al.
(author)
-
STATE OF THE CLIMATE IN 2017
- 2018
-
In: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - : American Meteorological Society. - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 99:8, s. S1-S310
-
Research review (peer-reviewed)
|
|
5. |
- Bauer, Florian, et al.
(author)
-
Depth of interaction with a 3-dimensional checkerboard arrangement LSO-LSO block
- 2010
-
In: IEEE Transactions on Nuclear Science. - 0018-9499 .- 1558-1578. ; 57:3, s. 971-975
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- In order to improve image quality in Positron Emission Tomography (PET) different routes are being pursued such as fast timing resolution for time-of-flight PET, higher spatial resolution by the use of smaller scintillator pixels and the use of depth-of-interaction information. The detection of the depth-of-interaction (DOI) of a gamma ray within a detector, deploying pulse shape discrimination (PSD), has been used to increase sensitivity and spatial resolution, especially at the edge of the field of view (FOV). The DOI information is used to reduce the parallax error; thus improving spatial resolution. Commonly, different scintillator materials with different decay times and light output and other differentiating factors, such as density, emission spectra, etc. are used for DOI detectors. We present a multi-layer phoswich detector comprised of LSO with different decay times in the range from 30 ns to 47 ns. The difference in decay times is achieved by co-doping LSO:Ce with Ca, resulting in short decay times of ~ 30 ns [1]. The use of a cut light guide allows the use of regular Photomultiplier tubes, giving the opportunity of a potential DOI detector replacement for current detectors. We were able to identify each pixel in the different detector layers
|
|
6. |
- Bauer, Florian, 1975-, et al.
(author)
-
Evaluation of a Micro-Channel Plate PMT in PET
- 2006
-
In: Nuclear Science Symposium Conference Record, 2006, IEEE. - 1424405602 ; , s. 2503-2505
-
Conference paper (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The focus of this paper is the evaluation of micro-channel plate PMTs for PET detectors. Several properties of MCPs make them interesting for PET applications, such as fast time response, high spatial resolution, compact size, low susceptibility to magnetic fields, high gain and low power consumption. The preliminary tests in this paper are performed with the 51 mm times 51 mm square Burle 85011-501 assembly with 64 anodes (8 times 8). A new version of this MCP will be examined for the full paper. Initial measurements have been performed with a pulsed LASER (Hamamatsu Picosecond Light Pulser PLP-10 with M8903 Laser diode head). The engineering sample of the 85011 exhibited a time resolution of 26 ps. Further measurements will be performed, such as transit time measurements and timing measurements with scintillators. Single-photon timing measurements were presented earlier in [Ref. 1], from the old version as well as the suitability of the device in Cherenkov detectors in [Ref. 2]. For the full paper it is also planned to develop a circuit which allows lossless splitting of the anode signal.
|
|
7. |
- Burkhardt, Lukas, et al.
(author)
-
Electronic Structure of the Hieber Anion [Fe(CO)3(NO)]− Revisited by X‐ray Emission and Absorption Spectroscopy
- 2020
-
In: Inorganic Chemistry. - : American Chemical Society (ACS). - 0020-1669 .- 1520-510X. ; 59:6, s. 3551-3561
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- While the Hieber anion [Fe(CO)3(NO)]− has been reincarnated in the last years as an active catalyst in organic synthesis, there is still a debate about the oxidation state of the central Fe atom and the resulting charge of the NO ligand. To shed new light on this question and to understand the Fe−NO interaction in the Hieber anion, it is investigated in comparison to the formal 3d8 reference Fe(CO)5 and the formal 3d10 reference [Fe(CO)4]2− by the combination of valence-to-core X-ray emission spectroscopy (VtC-XES), X-ray absorption near-edge structure spectroscopy (XANES), and high-energy-resolution fluorescence-detected XANES. In order to extract information about the electronic structure, time-dependent density functional theory and ground-state density functional theory calculations are applied. This combination of experimental and computational methods reveals that the electron density at the Fe center of the Hieber resembles that of the isoelectronic [Fe(CO)4]2−. These observations challenge recent descriptions of the Hieber anion and reopen the debate about the experimentally and computationally determined Fe oxidation state and charge on the NO ligand.
|
|
8. |
- de Jong, Roelof S., et al.
(author)
-
4MOST-4-metre Multi-Object Spectroscopic Telescope
- 2014
-
In: Ground-based and Airborne Instrumentation for Astronomy V. - : SPIE. - 0277-786X .- 1996-756X. ; 9147
-
Conference paper (peer-reviewed)abstract
- 4MOST is a wide-field, high-multiplex spectroscopic survey facility under development for the VISTA telescope of the European Southern Observatory (ESO). Its main science drivers are in the fields of galactic archeology, high-energy physics, galaxy evolution and cosmology. 4MOST will in particular provide the spectroscopic complements to the large area surveys coming from space missions like Gaia, eROSITA, Euclid, and PLATO and from ground-based facilities like VISTA, VST, DES, LSST and SKA. The 4MOST baseline concept features a 2.5 degree diameter field-of-view with similar to 2400 fibres in the focal surface that are configured by a fibre positioner based on the tilting spine principle. The fibres feed two types of spectrographs; similar to 1600 fibres go to two spectrographs with resolution R> 5000 (lambda similar to 390-930 nm) and similar to 800 fibres to a spectrograph with R> 18,000 (lambda similar to 392-437 nm & 515-572 nm & 605-675 nm). Both types of spectrographs are fixed-configuration, three-channel spectrographs. 4MOST will have an unique operations concept in which 5 year public surveys from both the consortium and the ESO community will be combined and observed in parallel during each exposure, resulting in more than 25 million spectra of targets spread over a large fraction of the southern sky. The 4MOST Facility Simulator (4FS) was developed to demonstrate the feasibility of this observing concept. 4MOST has been accepted for implementation by ESO with operations expected to start by the end of 2020. This paper provides a top-level overview of the 4MOST facility, while other papers in these proceedings provide more detailed descriptions of the instrument concept[1], the instrument requirements development[2], the systems engineering implementation[3], the instrument model[4], the fibre positioner concepts[5], the fibre feed[6], and the spectrographs[7].
|
|
9. |
- Dierks, Philipp, et al.
(author)
-
Ground- And Excited-State Properties of Iron(II) Complexes Linked to Organic Chromophores
- 2020
-
In: Inorganic Chemistry. - : American Chemical Society (ACS). - 0020-1669 .- 1520-510X. ; 59:20, s. 14746-14761
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Two new bichromophoric complexes, [Fe(bim-ant)2]2+ and [Fe(bim-pyr)2]2+ ([H2-bim]2+ = 1,1′-(pyridine-2,6-diyl)bis(3-methyl-1H-imidazol-3-ium); ant = 9-anthracenyl; pyr = 1-pyrenyl), are investigated to explore the possibility of tuning the excited-state behavior in photoactive iron(II) complexes to design substitutes for noble-metal compounds. The ground-state properties of both complexes are characterized thoroughly by electrochemical methods and optical absorption spectroscopy, complemented by time-dependent density functional theory calculations. The excited states are investigated by static and time-resolved luminescence and femtosecond transient absorption spectroscopy. Both complexes exhibit room temperature luminescence, which originates from singlet states dominated by the chromophore (1Chrom). In the cationic pro-ligands and in the iron(II) complexes, the emission is shifted to red by up to 110 nm (5780 cm-1). This offers the possibility of tuning the organic chromophore emission by metal-ion coordination. The fluorescence lifetimes of the complexes are in the nanosecond range, while triplet metal-to-ligand charge-transfer (3MLCT) lifetimes are around 14 ps. An antenna effect as in ruthenium(II) polypyridine complexes connected to an organic chromophore is found in the form of an internal conversion within 3.4 ns from the 1Chrom to the 1MLCT states. Because no singlet oxygen forms from triplet oxygen in the presence of the iron(II) complexes and light, efficient intersystem crossing to the triplet state of the organic chromophore (3Chrom) is not promoted in the iron(II) complexes.
|
|
10. |
- Dolfi, Michele, et al.
(author)
-
Matrix Product State applications for the ALPS project
- 2014
-
In: Computer Physics Communications. - : Elsevier BV. - 0010-4655 .- 1879-2944. ; 185:12, s. 3430-3440
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The density-matrix renormalization group method has become a standard computational approach to the low-energy physics as well as dynamics of low-dimensional quantum systems. In this paper, we present a new set of applications, available as part of the ALPS package, that provide an efficient and flexible implementation of these methods based on a matrix product state (MPS) representation. Our applications implement, within the same framework, algorithms to variationally find the ground state and low-lying excited states as well as simulate the time evolution of arbitrary one-dimensional and two-dimensional models. Implementing the conservation of quantum numbers for generic Abelian symmetries, we achieve performance competitive with the best codes in the community. Example results are provided for (i) a model of itinerant fermions in one dimension and (ii) a model of quantum magnetism. PROGRAM SUMMARY Program title: ALPS MPS Catalogue identifier: AEUL_v1_0 Program summary URL:http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/summaries/AEUL_v1_0.html Program obtainable from: CPC Program Library, Queen’s University, Belfast, N. Ireland Licensing provisions: Use of âmps optim’, âmps tevol’, âmps meas’ or âmps overlap’ requires citation of this paper. Use of any ALPS program requires citation of the ALPS [1] paper. No. of lines in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 373799 No. of bytes in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 2019043 Distribution format: tar.gz Programming language: C++, OpenMP for parallelization. Computer: PC, HPC cluster. Operating system: Any, tested on Linux, Mac OS X and Windows. Has the code been vectorized or parallelized?: Parallelized using OpenMP 1 to 24 processors used. RAM: 100 MBâ100 GB. Classification: 7.7. External routines: ALPS [1, 2], BLAS/LAPACK, HDF5. Nature of problem: Solution of quantum many-body systems is generally a hard problem. The many-body Hilbert space grows exponentially with the system size which limits exact diagonalization results to only 20â40 spins, and the fermionic negative sign problem limits the Quantum Monte Carlo methods to a few special cases. Solution method: The matrix product states ansatz provides a controllable truncation of the Hilbert space which makes it currently the method of choice to investigate low-dimensional systems in condensed matter physics. Our implementation allows simulation of arbitrary one-dimensional and two-dimensional models and achieves performance competitive with the best codes in the community. We implement conservation of quantum numbers for generic Abelian symmetries. Running time: 10 sâ8h per sweep. References: [1] B. Bauer, et al. (ALPS Collaboration), The ALPS project release 2.0: open source software for strongly correlated systems, J. Stat. Mech. 2011 (05) (2011) P05001. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1742-5468/2011/05/P05001. [2] http://alps.comp-phys.org.
|
|