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- Carlsen, Henrik, et al.
(author)
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Systematic exploration of scenario spaces
- 2016
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In: Foresight. - 1463-6689 .- 1465-9832. ; 18:1, s. 59-75
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Purpose - Scenarios have become a vital methodological approach in business as well as in public policy. When scenarios are used to guide analysis and decision-making, the aim is typically robustness and in this context we argue that two main problems at scenario set level is conservatism, i.e. all scenarios are close to a perceived business-as-usual trajectory and lack of balance in the sense of arbitrarily mixing some conservative and some extreme scenarios. The purpose of this paper is to address these shortcomings by proposing a methodology for generating sets of scenarios which are in a mathematical sense maximally diverse. Design/methodology/approach - In this paper, we develop a systematic methodology, Scenario Diversity Analysis (SDA), which addresses the problems of broad span vs conservatism and imbalance. From a given set of variables with associated states, SDA generates scenario sets where the scenarios are in a quantifiable sense maximally different and therefore best span the whole set of feasible scenarios. Findings - The usefulness of the methodology is exemplified by applying it to sets of storylines of the emissions scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This ex-post analysis shows that the storylines were not maximally diverse and given the challenges ahead with regard to emissions reduction and adaptation planning, we argue that it is important to strive for diversity when developing scenario sets for climate change research. Originality/value - The proposed methodology adds significant novel features to the field of systematic scenario generation, especially with regard to scenario diversity. The methodology also enables the combination of systematics with the distinct future logics of good intuitive logics scenarios.
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| 5. |
- Carlsen, Henrik, et al.
(author)
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Transparent scenario development
- 2017
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In: Nature Climate Change. - : Nature Publishing Group. - 1758-678X .- 1758-6798. ; 7:9, s. 613-613
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)
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| 6. |
- Gregers, Jannie, et al.
(author)
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Polymorphisms in the ABCB1 gene and effect on outcome and toxicity in childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia
- 2015
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In: The Pharmacogenomics Journal. - : Nature Publishing Group: Open Access Hybrid Model Option B. - 1470-269X .- 1473-1150. ; 15:4, s. 372-379
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The membrane transporter P-glycoprotein, encoded by the ABCB1 gene, influences the pharmacokinetics of anti-cancer drugs. We hypothesized that variants of ABCB1 affect outcome and toxicity in childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL). We studied 522 Danish children with ALL, 93% of all those eligible. Risk of relapse was increased 2.9-fold for patients with the 1199GA variant versus 1199GG (P = 0.001), and reduced 61% and 40%, respectively, for patients with the 3435CT or 3435TT variants versus 3435CC (overall P = 0.02). The degree of bone marrow toxicity during doxorubicin, vincristine and prednisolone induction therapy was more prominent in patients with 3435TT variant versus 3435CT/3435CC (P = 0.01/P less than 0.0001). We observed more liver toxicity after high-dose methotrexate in patients with 3435CC variant versus 3435CT/TT ( P = 0.03). In conclusion, there is a statistically significant association between ABCB1 polymorphisms, efficacy and toxicity in the treatment of ALL, and ABCB1 1199G greater than A may be a new possible predictive marker for outcome in childhood ALL.
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| 7. |
- Hedlund, Johanna, et al.
(author)
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Quantifying transnational climate impact exposure : New perspectives on the global distribution of climate risk
- 2018
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In: Global Environmental Change. - : Elsevier BV. - 0959-3780 .- 1872-9495. ; 52, s. 75-85
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Indicators used in climate change adaptation planning are largely based on estimates of national or local climate vulnerability. However, classic vulnerability indices do not consider cross-border effects and global interconnections. We attempt to reconcile this need for a broader perspective by developing a global index of exposure to transnational climate impacts, which we define as impacts that are transferred via flows between countries. The index integrates traditional climate vulnerability indicators with spatially-explicit teleconnections between specific countries and constitutes a first approximation of the distribution of such exposure globally. Our results indicate that even though climate risks emerging from within a country's borders are highly correlated with economic development and geography, the distribution of exposure to transnational climate impacts provides a much more complex picture of global vulnerabilities, which neither geography, nor economic development alone can explain sufficiently. This highlights the need to take a cross-scale and multidimensional perspective of climate risk. In order to support more robust adaptation planning, risk assessments should consider both transboundary and far-reaching teleconnected interdependencies between countries.
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| 8. |
- Johansson, Henrik, 1965-
(author)
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Exercise induced breathing problems in adolescents
- 2015
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Doctoral thesis (other academic/artistic)abstract
- Experiencing respiratory symptoms in conjunction with exercise is common in children and adolescents and can have a negative impact on daily life. The aim of the thesis was to estimate the prevalence of exercise-induced dyspnoea, exercise-induced bronchoconstriction (EIB) and exercise-induced laryngeal obstruction (E-ILO) in a general adolescent population, and to explore factors associated with EIB.Methods: All 12-13-year-old adolescents in the city of Uppsala (n=3,838) participated in a survey on exercise-induced dyspnoea. A subsample of adolescents who answered the survey, 103 randomly selected adolescents reporting exercise-induced dyspnoea and 47 random adolescents who did not report exercise-induced dyspnoea underwent standardised treadmill exercise tests for EIB and E-ILO. The exercise test for EIB was performed while breathing dry air; a positive test was defined as a decrease ≥10% in FEV1 from baseline. E-ILO was investigated using continuous laryngoscopy during exercise. Health related quality of life (HRQoL), and objectively measured daily physical activity were investigated in those with (n=49) and without (n=91) a positive EIB-test.Results: The prevalence of exercise-induced dyspnoea was 14%, and the estimated prevalence of EIB and E-ILO in the total population was 19.2% and of 5.7%, respectively, with no gender differences. In adolescents with exercise-induced dyspnoea 40% had EIB, 6% had E-ILO, and 5% had both conditions.An increased baseline level of fraction of nitric oxide in exhaled air (FeNO), female gender, and exercise-induced dyspnoea were associated with a positive EIB test. Female adolescents with EIB had lower HRQoL and lower baseline lung function compared to females without EIB. These differences were not observed in male adolescents. There was no difference in time spent in moderate- to vigorous daily physical activity between adolescents with and without EIB.
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| 9. |
- Nilsson, Annika E., et al.
(author)
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Future narratives
- 2017
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In: Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic. - Oslo, Norway : Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme. ; , s. 109-126
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Book chapter (peer-reviewed)
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| 10. |
- Nilsson, Annika E., et al.
(author)
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Towards extended shared socioeconomic pathways : A combined participatory bottom-up and top-down methodology with results from the Barents region
- 2017
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In: Global Environmental Change. - : ELSEVIER SCI LTD. - 0959-3780 .- 1872-9495. ; 45, s. 124-132
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- A major challenge in planning for adaptation to climate change is to assess future development not only in relation to climate but also in relation to social, economic and political changes that affect the capacity for adaptation or otherwise play a role in decision making. One approach is to use scenario methods. This article presents a methodology that combines top-down scenarios and bottom-up approaches to scenario building, with the aim of articulating local so-called extended socio-economic pathways. Specifically, we used the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) of the global scenario framework as developed by the climate research community to present boundary conditions about potential global change in workshop discussion with local and regional actors in the Barents region. We relate the results from these workshops to the different elements of the global SSPs and discuss potential and limitations of the method in relation to use in decision making processes.
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