| 1. |
- Smerdon, J. E., et al.
(author)
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Comparing proxy and model estimates of hydroclimate variability and change over the Common Era
- 2017
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In: Climate of the Past. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 13:12, s. 1851-1900
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Water availability is fundamental to societies and ecosystems, but our understanding of variations in hydroclimate (including extreme events, flooding, and decadal periods of drought) is limited because of a paucity of modern instrumental observations that are distributed unevenly across the globe and only span parts of the 20th and 21st centuries. Such data coverage is insufficient for characterizing hydroclimate and its associated dynamics because of its multidecadal to centennial variability and highly regionalized spatial signature. High-resolution (seasonal to decadal) hydroclimatic proxies that span all or parts of the Common Era (CE) and paleoclimate simulations from climate models are therefore important tools for augmenting our understanding of hydroclimate variability. In particular, the comparison of the two sources of information is critical for addressing the uncertainties and limitations of both while enriching each of their interpretations. We review the principal proxy data available for hydroclimatic reconstructions over the CE and highlight the contemporary understanding of how these proxies are interpreted as hydroclimate indicators. We also review the available last-millennium simulations from fully coupled climate models and discuss several outstanding challenges associated with simulating hydroclimate variability and change over the CE. A specific review of simulated hydroclimatic changes forced by volcanic events is provided, as is a discussion of expected improvements in estimated radiative forcings, models, and their implementation in the future. Our review of hydroclimatic proxies and last-millennium model simulations is used as the basis for articulating a variety of considerations and best practices for how to perform proxy-model comparisons of CE hydroclimate. This discussion provides a framework for how best to evaluate hydroclimate variability and its associated dynamics using these comparisons and how they can better inform interpretations of both proxy data and model simulations. We subsequently explore means of using proxy-model comparisons to better constrain and characterize future hydroclimate risks. This is explored specifically in the context of several examples that demonstrate how proxy-model comparisons can be used to quantitatively constrain future hydroclimatic risks as estimated from climate model projections.
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| 2. |
- Kasliwal, M. M., et al.
(author)
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Illuminating gravitational waves : A concordant picture of photons from a neutron star merger
- 2017
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In: Science. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 0036-8075 .- 1095-9203. ; 358:6370, s. 1559-
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Merging neutron stars offer an excellent laboratory for simultaneously studying strong-field gravity and matter in extreme environments. We establish the physical association of an electromagnetic counterpart (EM170817) with gravitational waves (GW170817) detected from merging neutron stars. By synthesizing a panchromatic data set, we demonstrate that merging neutron stars are a long-sought production site forging heavy elements by r-process nucleosynthesis. The weak gamma rays seen in EM170817 are dissimilar to classical short gamma-ray bursts with ultrarelativistic jets. Instead, we suggest that breakout of a wide-angle, mildly relativistic cocoon engulfing the jet explains the low-luminosity gamma rays, the high-luminosity ultraviolet-optical-infrared, and the delayed radio and x-ray emission. We posit that all neutron star mergers may lead to a wide-angle cocoon breakout, sometimes accompanied by a successful jet and sometimes by a choked jet.
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| 3. |
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| 4. |
- Liu, Y., et al.
(author)
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Anthropogenic Aerosols Cause Recent Pronounced Weakening of Asian Summer Monsoon Relative to Last Four Centuries
- 2019
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In: Geophysical Research Letters. - : American Geophysical Union (AGU). - 0094-8276 .- 1944-8007. ; 46:10, s. 5469-5479
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) affects ecosystems, biodiversity, and food security of billions of people. In recent decades, ASM strength (as represented by precipitation) has been decreasing, but instrumental measurements span only a short period of time. The initiation and the dynamics of the recent trend are unclear. Here for the first time, we use an ensemble of 10 tree ring-width chronologies from the west-central margin of ASM to reconstruct detail of ASM variability back to 1566 CE. The reconstruction captures weak/strong ASM events and also reflects major locust plagues. Notably, we found an unprecedented 80-year trend of decreasing ASM strength within the context of the 448-year reconstruction, which is contrary to what is expected from greenhouse warming. Our coupled climate model shows that increasing anthropogenic sulfate aerosol emissions over the Northern Hemisphere could be the dominant factor contributing to the ASM decrease. Plan Language Summary Monsoonal rainfall has a certain influence on agriculture and industry in the regions of Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM). An understanding of the spatial-temporal variability of the ASM and the associated dynamics is vital for terrestrial ecosystems, water resources, forests, and landscapes. We have developed a 448-year ASM reconstruction back to 1566 CE using 10 tree ring chronologies from the margin region of ASM. We find that historical severe droughts and locust plague disasters during weak ASM events. The recent decreasing ASM trend persisting for over 80 years is unprecedented over the past 448 years. Coupled climate models show that increasing anthropogenic aerosol emissions are the dominant underlying factor. Our aim is that the time series will find a wide range of utility for understanding past climate variability and for predicting future climate change.
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| 5. |
- Liu, Y., et al.
(author)
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Recent enhancement of central Pacific El Nino variability relative to last eight centuries
- 2017
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In: Nature Communications. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2041-1723. ; 8
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The far-reaching impacts of central Pacific El Nino events on global climate differ appreciably from those associated with eastern Pacific El Nino events. Central Pacific El Nino events may become more frequent in coming decades as atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations rise, but the instrumental record of central Pacific sea-surface temperatures is too short to detect potential trends. Here we present an annually resolved reconstruction of NINO4 sea-surface temperature, located in the central equatorial Pacific, based on oxygen isotopic time series from Taiwan tree cellulose that span from 1190 AD to 2007 AD. Our reconstruction indicates that relatively warm Nino4 sea-surface temperature values over the late twentieth century are accompanied by higher levels of interannual variability than observed in other intervals of the 818-year-long reconstruction. Our results imply that anthropogenic greenhouse forcing may be driving an increase in central Pacific El Nino-Southern Oscillation variability and/or its hydrological impacts, consistent with recent modelling studies.
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| 6. |
- Hinks, A, et al.
(author)
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Fine-mapping the MHC locus in juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) reveals genetic heterogeneity corresponding to distinct adult inflammatory arthritic diseases
- 2017
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In: Annals of the rheumatic diseases. - : BMJ. - 1468-2060 .- 0003-4967. ; 76:4, s. 765-772
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) is a heterogeneous group of diseases, comprising seven categories. Genetic data could potentially be used to help redefine JIA categories and improve the current classification system. The human leucocyte antigen (HLA) region is strongly associated with JIA. Fine-mapping of the region was performed to look for similarities and differences in HLA associations between the JIA categories and define correspondences with adult inflammatory arthritides.MethodsDense genotype data from the HLA region, from the Immunochip array for 5043 JIA cases and 14 390 controls, were used to impute single-nucleotide polymorphisms, HLA classical alleles and amino acids. Bivariate analysis was performed to investigate genetic correlation between the JIA categories. Conditional analysis was used to identify additional effects within the region. Comparison of the findings with those in adult inflammatory arthritic diseases was performed.ResultsWe identified category-specific associations and have demonstrated for the first time that rheumatoid factor (RF)-negative polyarticular JIA and oligoarticular JIA are genetically similar in their HLA associations. We also observe that each JIA category potentially has an adult counterpart. The RF-positive polyarthritis association at HLA-DRB1 amino acid at position 13 mirrors the association in adult seropositive rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Interestingly, the combined oligoarthritis and RF-negative polyarthritis dataset shares the same association with adult seronegative RA.ConclusionsThe findings suggest the value of using genetic data in helping to classify the categories of this heterogeneous disease. Mapping JIA categories to adult counterparts could enable shared knowledge of disease pathogenesis and aetiology and facilitate transition from paediatric to adult services.
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| 7. |
- Ombrello, MJ, et al.
(author)
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Genetic architecture distinguishes systemic juvenile idiopathic arthritis from other forms of juvenile idiopathic arthritis: clinical and therapeutic implications
- 2017
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In: Annals of the rheumatic diseases. - : BMJ. - 1468-2060 .- 0003-4967. ; 76:5, s. 906-913
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) is a heterogeneous group of conditions unified by the presence of chronic childhood arthritis without an identifiable cause. Systemic JIA (sJIA) is a rare form of JIA characterised by systemic inflammation. sJIA is distinguished from other forms of JIA by unique clinical features and treatment responses that are similar to autoinflammatory diseases. However, approximately half of children with sJIA develop destructive, long-standing arthritis that appears similar to other forms of JIA. Using genomic approaches, we sought to gain novel insights into the pathophysiology of sJIA and its relationship with other forms of JIA.MethodsWe performed a genome-wide association study of 770 children with sJIA collected in nine countries by the International Childhood Arthritis Genetics Consortium. Single nucleotide polymorphisms were tested for association with sJIA. Weighted genetic risk scores were used to compare the genetic architecture of sJIA with other JIA subtypes.ResultsThe major histocompatibility complex locus and a locus on chromosome 1 each showed association with sJIA exceeding the threshold for genome-wide significance, while 23 other novel loci were suggestive of association with sJIA. Using a combination of genetic and statistical approaches, we found no evidence of shared genetic architecture between sJIA and other common JIA subtypes.ConclusionsThe lack of shared genetic risk factors between sJIA and other JIA subtypes supports the hypothesis that sJIA is a unique disease process and argues for a different classification framework. Research to improve sJIA therapy should target its unique genetics and specific pathophysiological pathways.
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| 8. |
- Pausata, Francesco S. R., et al.
(author)
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Greening of the Sahara suppressed ENSO activity during the mid-Holocene
- 2017
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In: Nature Communications. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2041-1723. ; 8
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The evolution of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) during the Holocene remains uncertain. In particular, a host of new paleoclimate records suggest that ENSO internal variability or other external forcings may have dwarfed the fairly modest ENSO response to precessional insolation changes simulated in climate models. Here, using fully coupled ocean-atmosphere model simulations, we show that accounting for a vegetated and less dusty Sahara during the mid-Holocene relative to preindustrial climate can reduce ENSO variability by 25%, more than twice the decrease obtained using orbital forcing alone. We identify changes in tropical Atlantic mean state and variability caused by the momentous strengthening of the West Africa Monsoon (WAM) as critical factors in amplifying ENSO's response to insolation forcing through changes in the Walker circulation. Our results thus suggest that potential changes in the WAM due to anthropogenic warming may influence ENSO variability in the future as well.
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