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- Blach, S., et al.
(author)
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Global change in hepatitis C virus prevalence and cascade of care between 2015 and 2020: a modelling study
- 2022
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In: Lancet Gastroenterology & Hepatology. - : Elsevier BV. - 2468-1253. ; 7:5, s. 396-415
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background Since the release of the first global hepatitis elimination targets in 2016, and until the COVID-19 pandemic started in early 2020, many countries and territories were making progress toward hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination. This study aims to evaluate HCV burden in 2020, and forecast HCV burden by 2030 given current trends. Methods This analysis includes a literature review, Delphi process, and mathematical modelling to estimate HCV prevalence (viraemic infection, defined as HCV RNA-positive cases) and the cascade of care among people of all ages (age =0 years from birth) for the period between Jan 1, 2015, and Dec 31, 2030. Epidemiological data were collected from published sources and grey literature (including government reports and personal communications) and were validated among country and territory experts. A Markov model was used to forecast disease burden and cascade of care from 1950 to 2050 for countries and territories with data. Model outcomes were extracted from 2015 to 2030 to calculate population-weighted regional averages, which were used for countries or territories without data. Regional and global estimates of HCV prevalence, cascade of care, and disease burden were calculated based on 235 countries and territories. Findings Models were built for 110 countries or territories: 83 were approved by local experts and 27 were based on published data alone. Using data from these models, plus population-weighted regional averages for countries and territories without models (n=125), we estimated a global prevalence of viraemic HCV infection of 0.7% (95% UI 0.7-0.9), corresponding to 56.8 million (95% UI 55.2-67.8) infections, on Jan 1, 2020. This number represents a decrease of 6.8 million viraemic infections from a 2015 (beginning of year) prevalence estimate of 63.6 million (61.8-75.8) infections (0.9% [0.8-1.0] prevalence). By the end of 2020, an estimated 12.9 million (12.5-15.4) people were living with a diagnosed viraemic infection. In 2020, an estimated 641 000 (623 000-765 000) patients initiated treatment. Interpretation At the beginning of 2020, there were an estimated 56.8 million viraemic HCV infections globally. Although this number represents a decrease from 2015, our forecasts suggest we are not currently on track to achieve global elimination targets by 2030. As countries recover from COVID-19, these findings can help refocus efforts aimed at HCV elimination. Copyright (C) 2022 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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| 4. |
- Afsharnejad, B., et al.
(author)
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“I Met Someone Like Me!” : Autistic Adolescents and Their Parents’ Experience of the KONTAKT® Social Skills Group Training
- 2022
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In: Journal of autism and developmental disorders. - : Springer. - 0162-3257 .- 1573-3432. ; 52, s. 1458-1477
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This study captured the experiences of 35 autistic adolescents and their parents after completing a 16-session variant of social skills group training KONTAKT® (ACTRN12617001117303). Semi-structured interviews explored participants' and relatives' perceptions of KONTAKT® and associated social outcomes. Adolescents were classified as either high (HR, n = 23) or low (LR, n = 12) responders based on the primary outcome effects during the previous trial. Thematic analysis revealed that both HR and LR participants their parents were satisfied with KONTAKT®, noting consistent patterns of improvement in adolescents' social understanding, communication, relationships, and empowerment, although positive reports were more frequent among HR than LR groups. This study enhances the understanding of the impact of SSGT, which is key in improving their content, principles, and administration.
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| 5. |
- D'Amicis, R., et al.
(author)
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First Solar Orbiter observation of the Alfvenic slow wind and identification of its solar source
- 2021
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In: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 656
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Context. Turbulence dominated by large-amplitude, nonlinear Alfven-like fluctuations mainly propagating away from the Sun is ubiquitous in high-speed solar wind streams. Recent studies have demontrated that slow wind streams may also show strong Alfvenic signatures, especially in the inner heliosphere.Aims. The present study focuses on the characterisation of an Alfvenic slow solar wind interval observed by Solar Orbiter between 14 and 18 July 2020 at a heliocentric distance of 0.64 AU.Methods. Our analysis is based on plasma moments and magnetic field measurements from the Solar Wind Analyser (SWA) and Magnetometer (MAG) instruments, respectively. We compared the behaviour of different parameters to characterise the stream in terms of the Alfvenic content and magnetic properties. We also performed a spectral analysis to highlight spectral features and waves signature using power spectral density and magnetic helicity spectrograms, respectively. Moreover, we reconstruct the Solar Orbiter magnetic connectivity to the solar sources both via a ballistic and a potential field source surface (PFSS) model.Results. The Alfvenic slow wind stream described in this paper resembles, in many respects, a fast wind stream. Indeed, at large scales, the time series of the speed profile shows a compression region, a main portion of the stream, and a rarefaction region, characterised by different features. Moreover, before the rarefaction region, we pinpoint several structures at different scales recalling the spaghetti-like flux-tube texture of the interplanetary magnetic field. Finally, we identify the connections between Solar Orbiter in situ measurements, tracing them down to coronal streamer and pseudostreamer configurations.Conclusions. The characterisation of the Alfvenic slow wind stream observed by Solar Orbiter and the identification of its solar source are extremely important aspects for improving the understanding of future observations of the same solar wind regime, especially as solar activity is increasing toward a maximum, where a higher incidence of this solar wind regime is expected.
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- Komyakova, Valeriya, et al.
(author)
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Conceptualisation of multiple impacts interacting in the marine environment using marine infrastructure as an example
- 2022
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In: Science of the Total Environment. - : Elsevier. - 0048-9697 .- 1879-1026. ; 830
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Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The human population is increasingly reliant on the marine environment for food, trade, tourism, transport, communication and other vital ecosystem services. These services require extensive marine infrastructure, all of which have direct or indirect ecological impacts on marine environments. The rise in global marine infrastructure has led to light, noise and chemical pollution, as well as facilitation of biological invasions. As a result, marine systems and associated species are under increased pressure from habitat loss and degradation, formation of ecological traps and increased mortality, all of which can lead to reduced resilience and consequently increased invasive species establishment. Whereas the cumulative bearings of collective human impacts on marine populations have previously been demonstrated, the multiple impacts associated with marine infrastructure have not been well explored. Here, building on ecological literature, we explore the impacts that are associated with marine infrastructure, conceptualising the notion of correlative, interactive and cumulative effects of anthropogenic activities on the marine environment. By reviewing the range of mitigation approaches that are currently available, we consider the role that eco-engineering, marine spatial planning and agent-based modelling plays in complementing the design and placement of marine structures to incorporate the existing connectivity pathways, ecological principles and complexity of the environment. Because the effect of human-induced, rapid environmental change is predicted to increase in response to the growth of the human population, this study demonstrates that the development and implementation of legislative framework, innovative technologies and nature-informed solutions are vital, preventative measures to mitigate the multiple impacts associated with marine infrastructure.
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- Razavi-Shearer, Devin M., et al.
(author)
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Adjusted estimate of the prevalence of hepatitis delta virus in 25 countries and territories
- 2024
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In: JOURNAL OF HEPATOLOGY. - 0168-8278 .- 1600-0641. ; 80:2, s. 232-242
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background & Aims: Hepatitis delta virus (HDV) is a satellite RNA virus that requires the hepatitis B virus (HBV) for assembly and propagation. Individuals infected with HDV progress to advanced liver disease faster than HBV-monoinfected individuals. Recent studies have estimated the global prevalence of anti-HDV antibodies among the HBV-infected population to be 5-15%. This study aimed to better understand HDV prevalence at the population level in 25 countries/territories. Methods: We conducted a literature review to determine the prevalence of anti-HDV and HDV RNA in hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg)-positive individuals in 25 countries/territories. Virtual meetings were held with experts from each setting to discuss the findings and collect unpublished data. Data were weighted for patient segments and regional heterogeneity to estimate the prevalence in the HBV-infected population. The findings were then combined with The Polaris Observatory HBV data to estimate the anti-HDV and HDV RNA prevalence in each country/territory at the population level. Results: After adjusting for geographical distribution, disease stage and special populations, the anti-HDV prevalence among the HBsAg+ population changed from the literature estimate in 19 countries. The highest anti-HDV prevalence was 60.1% in Mongolia. Once adjusted for the size of the HBsAg+ population and HDV RNA positivity rate, China had the highest absolute number of HDV RNA+ cases. Conclusions: We found substantially lower HDV prevalence than previously reported, as prior meta-analyses primarily focused on studies conducted in groups/regions that have a higher probability of HBV infection: tertiary care centers, specific risk groups or geographical regions. There is large uncertainty in HDV prevalence estimates. The implementation of reflex testing would improve estimates, while also allowing earlier linkage to care for HDV RNA+ individuals. The logistical and economic burden of reflex testing on the health system would be limited, as only HBsAg+ cases would be screened.
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