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- Estrada, Alba, et al.
(author)
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Equipped to cope with climate change : Traits associated with range filling across European taxa
- 2018
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In: Ecography. - : Wiley. - 0906-7590. ; 41:5, s. 770-781
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- In order to understand the ecological effects of climate change it is essential to forecast suitable areas for species in the future. However, species' ability to reach potentially suitable areas is also critical for species survival. These 'range-shift' abilities can be studied using life-history traits related to four range-shift stages: emigration, movement, establishment, and proliferation. Here, we use the extent to which species' ranges fill the climatically suitable area available ('range filling') as a proxy for the ability of European mammals and birds to shift their ranges under climate change. We detect which traits associate most closely with range filling. Drawing comparisons with a recent analysis for plants, we ask whether the latitudinal position of species' ranges supports the assertion that post-glacial range-shift limitations cause disequilibrium between ranges and climate. We also disentangle which of the three taxonomic groups has greatest range filling. For mammals, generalists and early-reproducing species have the greatest range filling. For birds, generalist species with high annual fecundity, which live longer than expected based on body size, have the greatest range filling. Although we consider traits related to the four range-shift stages, only traits related to establishment and proliferation ability significantly influence range filling of mammals and birds. Species with the greatest range filling are those whose range centroid falls in the latitudinal centre of Europe, suggesting that post-glacial range expansion is a leading cause of disequilibrium with climate, although other explanations are also possible. Range filling of plants is lower than that of mammals or birds, suggesting that plants are more range-limited by non-climatic factors. Therefore, plants might be face greater non-climatic restraints on range shifts than mammals or birds.
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| 2. |
- Estrada, Alba, et al.
(author)
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Usefulness of Species Traits in Predicting Range Shifts.
- 2016
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In: Trends in Ecology & Evolution. - : Elsevier BV. - 1872-8383 .- 0169-5347.
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Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Information on the ecological traits of species might improve predictions of climate-driven range shifts. However, the usefulness of traits is usually assumed rather than quantified. Here, we present a framework to identify the most informative traits, based on four key range-shift processes: emigration of individuals or propagules away from the natal location; the distance a species can move; establishment of self-sustaining populations; and proliferation following establishment. We propose a framework that categorises traits according to their contribution to range-shift processes. We demonstrate how the framework enables the predictive value of traits to be evaluated empirically and how this categorisation can be used to better understand range-shift processes; we also illustrate how range-shift estimates can be improved.
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| 3. |
- Årevall, Jonatan, et al.
(author)
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Conditions for successful range shifts under climate change: The role of species dispersal and landscape configuration
- 2018
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In: Diversity & distributions. - : WILEY. - 1366-9516 .- 1472-4642. ; 24:11, s. 1598-1611
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Aim: Ongoing climate change is currently modifying the geographical location of areas that are climatically suitable for species. Understanding a species ability to successfully shift its geographical range would allow us to assess extinction risks and predict future community compositions. We investigate how habitat configuration impedes or promotes climate-driven range shifts, given different speeds of climate change and dispersal abilities. Location: Theoretical, but illustrated with European examples. Methods: We model how a species ability to track a directional shift in climatic conditions is affected by (a) species dispersal abilities; (b) speed of climatic shift; and (c) spatial arrangement of the habitat. Our modelling framework includes within-and between-patch population dynamics and uses ecologically realistic habitat distributions and dispersal scenarios (verified with data from a set of European mammal species) and, as such, is an improvement of classical range shift models. Result: In landscapes with a homogeneous distribution of suitable habitats, all but the least dispersive species will be able to range shift. However, species with high dispersal ability will have lower population densities after range shift. In heterogeneous landscapes species ability to range shift is far more variable and heavily dependent on the habitat configuration. This means that landscape configuration in combination with the speed of climate change and species dispersal abilities give rise to nonlinear effects on population sizes and survival after a climatic shift. Main conclusions: Our analyses point out the importance of accounting for the interplay of species dispersal and the landscape configuration when estimating future climate impact on species. These results link ecologically important attributes of both species and their landscapes to outcomes of species range shift, and thereby long-term persistence of ecological communities.
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