| 1. |
- Buzzetti, Elena, et al.
(author)
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Collagen proportionate area is an independent predictor of long-term outcome in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease
- 2019
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In: Alimentary Pharmacology and Therapeutics. - : WILEY. - 0269-2813 .- 1365-2036. ; 49:9, s. 1214-1222
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background Collagen proportionate area (CPA) measurement is a technique that quantifies fibrous tissue in liver biopsies by measuring the amount of collagen deposition as a proportion of the total biopsy area. CPA predicts clinical outcomes in patients with HCV and can sub-classify cirrhosis. Aim To test the ability of CPA to quantify fibrosis and predict clinical outcomes in patients with NAFLD. Methods We assessed consecutive patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD from three European centres. Clinical and laboratory data were collected at baseline and at the time of the last clinical follow-up or death. CPA was performed at two different objective magnifications, whole biopsy macro and x4 objective magnification, named standard (SM) and high (HM) magnification respectively. The correlation between CPA and liver stiffness was assessed in a sub-group of patients. Results Of 437 patients, 32 (7.3%) decompensated and/or died from liver-related causes during a median follow-up of 103 months. CPA correlated with liver stiffness and liver fibrosis stage across the whole spectrum of fibrosis. HM CPA was significantly higher than SM CPA in stages F0-F3 but similar in cirrhosis, reflecting a higher ability to capture pericellular/perisinusoidal fibrosis at early stages. Age at baseline (HR: 1.04, 95% CI: 1.01-1.08), HM CPA (HR: 1.04 per 1% increase, 95% CI: 1.01-1.08) and presence of advanced fibrosis (HR: 15.4, 95% CI: 5.02-47.84) were independent predictors of liver-related clinical outcomes at standard and competing risk multivariate Cox-regression analysis. Conclusions CPA accurately measures fibrosis and is an independent predictor of clinical outcomes in NAFLD; hence it merits further evaluation as a surrogate endpoint in clinical trials.
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| 2. |
- Dulai, Parambir S, et al.
(author)
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Increased risk of mortality by fibrosis stage in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease : Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.
- 2017
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In: Hepatology. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 0270-9139 .- 1527-3350. ; 65:5, s. 1557-1565
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Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Liver fibrosis is the most important predictor of mortality in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Quantitative risk of mortality by fibrosis stage has not been systematically evaluated. We aimed to quantify the fibrosis stage-specific risk of all-cause and liver-related mortality in NAFLD.METHODS: Through a systematic review and meta-analysis, we identified 5 adult NAFLD cohort studies reporting fibrosis stage specific mortality (0-4). Using fibrosis stage 0 as a reference population, fibrosis stage-specific mortality rate ratios (MRR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI), for all-cause and liver-related mortality, were estimated. The study is reported according to the PRISMA statement.RESULTS: 1,495 NAFLD patients with 17,452 patient years of follow-up were included. Compared to NAFLD patients with no fibrosis (stage 0), NAFLD patients with fibrosis were at an increased risk for all-cause mortality and this risk increased with increase in the stage of fibrosis: stage 1, MRR, 1.58 (95% CI 1.19-2.11); stage 2, MRR, 2.52 (95% CI 1.85-3.42); stage 3, MRR, 3.48 (95% CI 2.51-4.83), and stage 4, MRR, 6.40 (95% CI 4.11-9.95). The results were more pronounced as the risk of liver-related mortality increased exponentially with increase in the stage of fibrosis: stage 1, MRR, 1.41 (95% CI 0.17-11.95); stage 2, MRR, 9.57 (95% CI 1.67-54.93); stage 3, MRR, 16.69 (95% CI 2.92-95.36); and stage 4, MRR, 42.30 (95% CI 3.51-510.34).LIMITATIONS: Inability to adjust for co-morbid conditions or demographics known to impact fibrosis progression in NAFLD, and the inclusion of patients with simple steatosis and NASH without fibrosis in the reference comparison group.CONCLUSION: The risk of liver-related mortality increases exponentially with increase in fibrosis stage. These data have important implications in assessing utility of each stage and benefits of regression of fibrosis from one stage to another. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
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| 3. |
- Ekstedt, Mattias, et al.
(author)
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Fibrosis stage is the strongest predictor for disease-specific mortality in NAFLD after up to 33 years of follow-up
- 2015
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In: Hepatology. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 0270-9139 .- 1527-3350. ; 61:5, s. 1547-1554
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background and rationale for the study: Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is the most common liver disease in the Western world, strongly associated with insulin resistance and the metabolic syndrome. Nonalcoholic steatohepatitis, i.e. fatty liver accompanied by necroinflammatory changes, is mostly defined by the NAFLD activity score (NAS). The aim of the current study was to determine disease-specific mortality in NAFLD, and evaluate the NAS and fibrosis stage as prognostic markers for overall and disease-specific mortality. Methods: In a cohort study, data from 229 well-characterized patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD were collected. Mean follow-up was 26.4 (± 5.6, range 6-33) years. A reference population was obtained from the National Registry of Population, and information on time and cause of death were obtained from the Registry of Causes of Death. Main results: NAFLD patients had an increased mortality compared with the reference population (HR 1.29, CI 1.04-1.59, p=0.020), with increased risk of cardiovascular disease (HR 1.55, CI 1.11-2.15, p=0.01), hepatocellular carcinoma (HR 6.55, CI 2.14-20.03, p=0.001), infectious disease (HR 2.71, CI 1.02-7.26, p=0.046), and cirrhosis (HR 3.2, CI 1.05-9.81, p=0.041). Overall mortality was not increased in patients with NAS 5-8 and fibrosis stage 0-2 (HR 1.41, CI 0.97-2.06, p=0.07), whereas patients with fibrosis stage 3-4, irrespective of NAS, had increased mortality (HR 3.3, CI 2.27-4.76, p<0.001). Conclusions: NAFLD patients have increased risk of death, with a high risk of death from cardiovascular disease and liver-related disease. The NAS was not able to predict overall mortality, whereas fibrosis stage predicted both overall and disease-specific mortality.
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| 4. |
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| 5. |
- Forsgren, Mikael, et al.
(author)
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Model-inferred mechanisms of liver function from magnetic resonance imaging data : Validation and variation across a clinically relevant cohort
- 2019
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In: PloS Computational Biology. - San Francisco, CA, United States : Public Library of Science. - 1553-734X .- 1553-7358. ; 15:6
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Estimation of liver function is important to monitor progression of chronic liver disease (CLD). A promising method is magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) combined with gadoxetate, a liver-specific contrast agent. For this method, we have previously developed a model for an average healthy human. Herein, we extended this model, by combining it with a patient-specific non-linear mixed-effects modeling framework. We validated the model by recruiting 100 patients with CLD of varying severity and etiologies. The model explained all MRI data and adequately predicted both timepoints saved for validation and gadoxetate concentrations in both plasma and biopsies. The validated model provides a new and deeper look into how the mechanisms of liver function vary across a wide variety of liver diseases. The basic mechanisms remain the same, but increasing fibrosis reduces uptake and increases excretion of gadoxetate. These mechanisms are shared across many liver functions and can now be estimated from standard clinical images.Author summaryBeing able to accurately and reliably estimate liver function is important when monitoring the progression of patients with liver disease, as well as when identifying drug-induced liver injury during drug development. A promising method for quantifying liver function is to use magnetic resonance imaging combined with gadoxetate. Gadoxetate is a liver-specific contrast agent, which is taken up by the hepatocytes and excreted into the bile. We have previously developed a mechanistic model for gadoxetate dynamics using averaged data from healthy volunteers. In this work, we extended our model with a non-linear mixed-effects modeling framework to give patient-specific estimates of the gadoxetate transport-rates. We validated the model by recruiting 100 patients with liver disease, covering a range of severity and etiologies. All patients underwent an MRI-examination and provided both blood and liver biopsies. Our validated model provides a new and deeper look into how the mechanisms of liver function varies across a wide variety of liver diseases. The basic mechanisms remain the same, but increasing fibrosis reduces uptake and increases excretion of gadoxetate.
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| 6. |
- Hagstrom, Hannes, et al.
(author)
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Accuracy of Noninvasive Scoring Systems in Assessing Risk of Death and Liver-Related Endpoints in Patients With Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease
- 2019
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In: Clinical Gastroenterology and Hepatology. - : Saunders Elsevier. - 1542-3565 .- 1542-7714. ; 17:6, s. 1148-1156.e4
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background and AimsSeveral non-invasive scoring systems have been developed to determine risk of advanced fibrosis in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). We examined the association between 4 scoring systems and incident severe liver disease and overall mortality in a large cohort of patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD.MethodsWe performed a retrospective analysis of data from 646 patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD, recruited from 2 hospitals in Sweden, from 1971 through 2009. The NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS), FIB-4, APRI, and BARD scores were calculated at the time of the liver biopsy. Based on each score, patients were assigned to categories of low, intermediate, or high risk for advanced fibrosis. Overall mortality and severe liver disease (cirrhosis, decompensated liver disease, liver failure, or hepatocellular carcinoma) were ascertained through linkage with national registers until the end of 2014. Cox regression, area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve, and C-statistic analyses were used to study the predictive capacity of each scoring system.ResultsDuring a mean follow-up time of 19.9±8.7 years, there were 214 deaths and 76 cases of severe liver disease. For overall mortality, AUROC curve values were: NFS, 0.72 (95% CI, 0.68–0.76); FIB-4, 0.72 (95% CI, 0.68–0.76); BARD, 0.62 (95% CI, 0.58–0.66); and APRI, 0.52 (95% CI, 0.47–0.57). For severe liver disease, AUROC curve values were: NFS, 0.72 (95% CI, 0.66–0.78); FIB-4, 0.72 (95% CI, 0.66–0.79); BARD, 0.62 (95% CI, 0.55–0.69); APRI, 0.69 (95% CI, 0.63–0.76). C-statistics for all scores were of moderate capacity to predict outcomes.ConclusionsIn a retrospective analysis of data from 646 patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD, we found the NFS and the FIB-4 scores to most accurately determine risk of overall death or severe liver disease. However, the AUROC values for these scoring systems are not high enough for use in the clinic; new systems are needed to determine prognoses of patients with NAFLD.
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| 7. |
- Hagstrom, Hannes, et al.
(author)
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Cardiovascular risk factors in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease
- 2019
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In: Liver international (Print). - : WILEY. - 1478-3223 .- 1478-3231. ; 39:1, s. 197-204
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background amp; Aims Patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) are at an increased risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD). It is unclear whether histological variables may help predict CVD risk. We evaluated histology and traditional CV risk factors as predictors of CVD outcomes in a large NAFLD cohort. Methods We included 603 biopsy-proven NAFLD patients free of baseline CVD and matched these (1:10, by age, sex and municipality) to 6269 population controls. All individuals were cross-linked to national registries to ascertain incident CVD events, defined as acute ischaemic heart disease or stroke. The presence of CV risk factors and liver histology were available in NAFLD patients only. Cox regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) for incident CVD. Results During a mean follow-up of 18.6 years, 168 (28%) of NAFLD patients and 1325 (21%) of controls experienced a CVD event (HR 1.54, 95%CI 1.30-1.83). Within the NAFLD cohort, age, male sex, type 2 diabetes, smoking and triglycerides were associated with risk of CVD. Taking these CV risk factors into account, no histological parameter, including presence of NASH and fibrosis stage, were associated with incident CVD. Conclusions Patients with NAFLD are at an increased risk for CVD compared to matched controls, but histological parameters do not seem to independently predict this risk.
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| 8. |
- Hagström, Hannes, et al.
(author)
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Elevated serum ferritin is associated with increased mortality in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease after 16 years of follow-up
- 2016
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In: Liver international (Print). - : John Wiley & Sons. - 1478-3223 .- 1478-3231. ; 36:11, s. 1688-1695
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND AND AIMS: High levels of ferritin in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) are associated with significant fibrosis and higher NAFLD activity score (NAS). It is unclear if this association has an impact on mortality. We investigated if high levels of ferritin, with or without iron overload, were associated with an increased mortality in NAFLD.METHODS: We included 222 patients between 1979 and 2009 with biopsy-proven NAFLD and available serum ferritin concentrations. The cohort was divided into "high" (n = 89) and "normal" (n = 133) ferritin values, using a cut-point of 350 μg/L in males, and 150 μg/L in females, and stratified upon iron overload status. Data on mortality was obtained from a national, population based register. Poisson regression was used to estimate hazard ratios for mortality. The estimates were adjusted for age at biopsy, sex, smoking, BMI, diabetes, hypertension, cardiovascular disease and fibrosis stage at the time of biopsy.RESULTS: The median follow-up time was 15.6 years (range: 0.5-34.2). Patients with high ferritin had more advanced fibrosis and higher NAS than patients with normal ferritin (p < 0.05). Fifteen years after diagnosis, and after adjusting for confounders, the high-ferritin group showed an increasingly higher mortality that was statistically significant (Hazard ratio = 1.10 per year, 95% Confidence interval 1.01-1.21, p < 0.05). There was no difference in mortality between patients with different iron overload patterns.CONCLUSIONS: High levels of ferritin are associated with a long-term increased risk of death. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
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| 9. |
- Hagström, Hannes, et al.
(author)
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Fibrosis stage but not NASH predicts mortality and time to development of severe liver disease in biopsy-proven NAFLD
- 2017
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In: Journal of Hepatology. - : ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV. - 0168-8278 .- 1600-0641. ; 67:6, s. 1265-1273
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background amp; Aims: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is very common in the general population, but identifying patients with increased risk of mortality and liver-specific morbidity remains a challenge. Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is thought to enhance this risk; therefore, resolution of NASH is a major endpoint in current pharmacologic studies. Herein, we aim to investigate the long-term prognosis of a large cohort of NAFLD patients, and to study the specific effect of NASH and fibrosis stage on prognosis. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 646 biopsy-proven NAFLD patients. Each case was matched for age, sex and municipality to ten controls. Outcomes on mortality and severe liver disease, defined as cirrhosis, liver decompensation/failure or hepatocellular carcinoma, were evaluated using population-based registers. Cox regression models adjusted for age, sex and type 2 diabetes were used to examine the long-term risk according to fibrosis stage. Likelihood ratio tests were used to assess whether adding NASH to these models increased the predictive capacity. Laplace regression was used to estimate the time to severe liver disease according to stage of fibrosis. Results: During a follow-up of mean 20 years (range 0-40) equivalent to 139,163 person-years, 12% of NAFLD patients and 2.2% of controls developed severe liver disease (p amp;lt; 0.001). Compared to controls, the risk of severe liver disease increased per stage of fibrosis (hazard ratio ranging from 1.9 in F0 to 104.9 in F4). Accounting for the presence of NASH did not change these estimates significantly (likelihood ratio test amp;gt; 0.05 for all stages of fibrosis). Similar results were seen for overall mortality. The lower end of the 95% confidence interval for the 10th percentile of time to development of severe liver disease was 22-26 years in F0-1, 9.3 years in F2, 2.3 years in F3, and 0.9 years to liver decompensation in F4. Conclusions: In this, the largest ever study of biopsy-proven NAFLD, the presence of NASH did not increase the risk of liver-specific morbidity or overall mortality. Knowledge of time to development of severe liver disease according to fibrosis stage can be used in individual patient counselling and for public health decisions. (C) 2017 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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| 10. |
- Hagström, Hannes, et al.
(author)
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Low to moderate lifetime alcohol consumption is associated with less advanced stages of fibrosis in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease
- 2017
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In: Scandinavian Journal of Gastroenterology. - : Informa UK Limited. - 0036-5521 .- 1502-7708. ; 52:2, s. 159-165
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background and aim: Moderate alcohol consumption has been associated with a lower risk of disease severity in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). It is unclear if this reflects current or lifetime drinking, or can be attributed to confounders such as diet and exercise. We evaluated the impact of lifetime alcohol consumption on fibrosis severity in NAFLD. Methods: We prospectively enrolled 120 subjects with biopsy-proven NAFLD and through detailed questionnaires examined lifetime alcohol consumption, diet and physical activity. Main outcome measures were odds ratios (OR) for fibrosis stage, calculated through ordinal regression after adjustment for body mass index, diabetes mellitus type 2, smoking and age at biopsy. A biomarker for recent alcohol consumption, phosphatidyl ethanol (PEth) was sampled. Results: An increase in median weekly alcohol consumption to a maximum of 13 drinks per week was associated with lower fibrosis stage (adjusted OR for each incremental unit, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.76-0.97; p = .017). The lowest risk for fibrosis was found with the lowest odds seen in the top quartile of alcohol consumption (aOR 0.23; 95% CI 0.08-0.66; p = .006). Adding soft drink and coffee consumptions, and physical activity to the model did not change the estimates. Subjects with PEth >= 0.3 mu mol/L had higher ORs for a higher fibrosis stage (aOR 2.77; 95% CI 1.01-7.59; p = .047). Conclusion: Lifetime alcohol consumption with up to 13 units per week is associated with lower fibrosis stage in NAFLD. Elevated PEth is associated with higher stages of fibrosis.
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