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- Razavi, H., et al.
(author)
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Hepatitis C virus prevalence and level of intervention required to achieve the WHO targets for elimination in the European Union by 2030: a modelling study
- 2017
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In: Lancet Gastroenterology & Hepatology. - : Elsevier BV. - 2468-1253. ; 2:5, s. 325-336
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a leading cause of liver-related morbidity and mortality worldwide. In the European Union (EU), treatment and cure of HCV with direct-acting antiviral therapies began in 2014. WHO targets are to achieve a 65% reduction in liver-related deaths, a 90% reduction of new viral hepatitis infections, and 90% of patients with viral hepatitis infections being diagnosed by 2030. This study assessed the prevalence of HCV in the EU and the level of intervention required to achieve WHO targets for HCV elimination. Methods We populated country Markov models for the 28 EU countries through a literature search of PubMed and Embase between Jan 1, 2000, and March 31, 2016, and a Delphi process to gain expert consensus and validate inputs. We aggregated country models to create a regional EU model. We used the EU model to forecast HCV disease progression (considering the effect of immigration) and developed a strategy to acehive WHO targets. We used weighted average sustained viral response rates and fibrosis restrictions to model the effect of current therapeutic guidelines. We used the EU model to forecast HCV disease progression (considering the effect of immigration) under current screening and therapeutic guidelines. Additionally, we back-calculated the total number of patients needing to be screened and treated to achieve WHO targets. Findings We estimated the number of viraemic HCV infections in 2015 to be 3 238 000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2 106 000-3 795 000) of a total population of 509 868 000 in the EU, equating to a prevalence of viraemic HCV of 0.64% (95% UI 0.41-0.74). We estimated that 1 180 000 (95% UI 1 003 000-1 357 000) people were diagnosed with viraemia (36.4%), 150 000 (12 000-180 000) were treated (4.6% of the total infected population or 12.7% of the diagnosed population), 133 000 (106 000-160 000) were cured (4.1%), and 57 900 (43 900-67 300) were newly infected (1.8%) in 2015. Additionally, 30 400 (26 600-42 500) HCV-positive immigrants entered the EU. To achieve WHO targets, unrestricted treatment needs to increase from 150 000 patients in 2015 to 187 000 patients in 2025 and diagnosis needs to increase from 88 800 new cases annually in 2015 to 180 000 in 2025. Interpretation Given its advanced health-care infrastructure, the EU is uniquely poised to eliminate HCV; however, expansion of screening programmes is essential to increase treatment to achieve the WHO targets. A united effort, grounded in sound epidemiological evidence, will also be necessary.
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- Lynham, J., et al.
(author)
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Costly stakeholder participation creates inertia in marine ecosystems
- 2017
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In: Marine Policy. - : Elsevier BV. - 0308-597X .- 1872-9460. ; 76, s. 122-129
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Ecosystems often shift abruptly and dramatically between different regimes in response to human or natural disturbances. When ecosystems tip from one regime to another, the suite of available ecosystem benefits changes, impacting the stakeholders who rely on these benefits. These changes often create some groups who stand to incur large losses if an ecosystem returns to a previous regime. When the participation cost in the decision-making process is extremely high, this can lock in ecosystem regimes, making it harder for policy and management to shift ecosystems out of what the majority of society views as the undesirable regime. Public stakeholder meetings often have high costs of participation, thus economic theory predicts they will be dominated by extreme views and often lead to decisions that do not represent the majority viewpoint. Such extreme viewpoints can create strong inertia even when there is broad consensus to manage an ecosystem towards a different regime. In the same manner that reinforcing ecological feedback loops make it harder to exit an ecosystem regime, there are decision-making feedback loops that contribute additional inertia.
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- Sharma, S., et al.
(author)
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Human Sera Collected between 1979 and 2010 Possess Blocking-Antibody Titers to Pandemic GII.4 Noroviruses Isolated over Three Decades
- 2017
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In: Journal of Virology. - : American Society for Microbiology. - 0022-538X .- 1098-5514. ; 91:14
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The emergence of pandemic GII.4 norovirus (NoV) strains has been proposed to occur due to changes in receptor usage and thereby to lead to immune evasion. To address this hypothesis, we measured the ability of human sera collected between 1979 and 2010 to block glycan binding of four pandemic GII. 4 noroviruses isolated in the last 4 decades. In total, 268 sera were investigated for 50% blocking titer (BT50) values of virus-like particles (VLPs) against pig gastric mucin (PGM) using 4 VLPs that represent different GII. 4 norovirus variants identified between 1987 and 2012. Pre- and postpandemic sera (sera collected before and after isolation of the reference NoV strain) efficiently prevented binding of VLP strains MD145 (1987), Grimsby (1995), and Houston (2002), but not the Sydney (2012) strain, to PGM. No statistically significant difference in virus-blocking titers was observed between pre- and postpandemic sera. Moreover, paired sera showed that blocking titers of >= 160 were maintained over a 6-year period against MD145, Grimsby, and Houston VLPs. Significantly higher serum blocking titers (geometric mean titer [GMT], 1,704) were found among IgA-deficient individuals than among healthy blood donors (GMT, 90.9) (P < 0.0001). The observation that prepandemic sera possess robust blocking capacity for viruses identified decades later suggests a common attachment factor, at least until 2002. Our results indicate that serum IgG possesses antibody-blocking capacity and that blocking titers can be maintained for at least 6 years against 3 decades of pandemic GII. 4 NoV. IMPORTANCE Human noroviruses (NoVs) are the major cause of acute gastroenteritis worldwide. Histo-blood group antigens (HBGAs) in saliva and gut recognize NoV and are the proposed ligands that facilitate infection. Polymorphisms in HBGA genes, and in particular a nonsense mutation in FUT2 (G428A), result in resistance to global dominating GII. 4 NoV. The emergence of new pandemic GII. 4 strains occurs at intervals of several years and is proposed to be attributable to epochal evolution, including amino acid changes and immune evasion. However, it remains unclear whether exposure to a previous pandemic strain stimulates immunity to a pandemic strain identified decades later. We found that prepandemic sera possess robust virus-blocking capacity against viruses identified several decades later. We also show that serum lacking IgA antibodies is sufficient to block NoV VLP binding to HBGAs. This is essential, considering that 1 in every 600 Caucasian children is IgA deficient.
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- Crawford, Sue E., et al.
(author)
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Rotavirus infection
- 2017
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In: NATURE REVIEWS DISEASE PRIMERS. - : NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP. - 2056-676X. ; 3
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Rotavirus infections are a leading cause of severe, dehydrating gastroenteritis in children amp;lt;5 years of age. Despite the global introduction of vaccinations for rotavirus over a decade ago, rotavirus infections still result in amp;gt;200,000 deaths annually, mostly in low-income countries. Rotavirus primarily infects enterocytes and induces diarrhoea through the destruction of absorptive enterocytes (leading to malabsorption), intestinal secretion stimulated by rotavirus non-structural protein 4 and activation of the enteric nervous system. In addition, rotavirus infections can lead to antigenaemia (which is associated with more severe manifestations of acute gastroenteritis) and viraemia, and rotavirus can replicate in systemic sites, although this is limited. Reinfections with rotavirus are common throughout life, although the disease severity is reduced with repeat infections. The immune correlates of protection against rotavirus reinfection and recovery from infection are poorly understood, although rotavirus-specific immunoglobulin A has a role in both aspects. The management of rotavirus infection focuses on the prevention and treatment of dehydration, although the use of antiviral and anti-emetic drugs can be indicated in some cases.
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- Sharma, Sumit, et al.
(author)
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Human Sera Collected between 1979 and 2010 Possess Blocking-Antibody Titers to Pandemic GII.4 Noroviruses Isolated over Three Decades
- 2017
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In: Journal of Virology. - : AMER SOC MICROBIOLOGY. - 0022-538X .- 1098-5514. ; 91:14
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The emergence of pandemic GII.4 norovirus (NoV) strains has been proposed to occur due to changes in receptor usage and thereby to lead to immune evasion. To address this hypothesis, we measured the ability of human sera collected between 1979 and 2010 to block glycan binding of four pandemic GII. 4 noroviruses isolated in the last 4 decades. In total, 268 sera were investigated for 50% blocking titer (BT50) values of virus-like particles (VLPs) against pig gastric mucin (PGM) using 4 VLPs that represent different GII. 4 norovirus variants identified between 1987 and 2012. Pre- and postpandemic sera (sera collected before and after isolation of the reference NoV strain) efficiently prevented binding of VLP strains MD145 (1987), Grimsby (1995), and Houston (2002), but not the Sydney (2012) strain, to PGM. No statistically significant difference in virus-blocking titers was observed between pre- and postpandemic sera. Moreover, paired sera showed that blocking titers of amp;gt;= 160 were maintained over a 6-year period against MD145, Grimsby, and Houston VLPs. Significantly higher serum blocking titers (geometric mean titer [GMT], 1,704) were found among IgA-deficient individuals than among healthy blood donors (GMT, 90.9) (P amp;lt; 0.0001). The observation that prepandemic sera possess robust blocking capacity for viruses identified decades later suggests a common attachment factor, at least until 2002. Our results indicate that serum IgG possesses antibody-blocking capacity and that blocking titers can be maintained for at least 6 years against 3 decades of pandemic GII. 4 NoV. IMPORTANCE Human noroviruses (NoVs) are the major cause of acute gastroenteritis worldwide. Histo-blood group antigens (HBGAs) in saliva and gut recognize NoV and are the proposed ligands that facilitate infection. Polymorphisms in HBGA genes, and in particular a nonsense mutation in FUT2 (G428A), result in resistance to global dominating GII. 4 NoV. The emergence of new pandemic GII. 4 strains occurs at intervals of several years and is proposed to be attributable to epochal evolution, including amino acid changes and immune evasion. However, it remains unclear whether exposure to a previous pandemic strain stimulates immunity to a pandemic strain identified decades later. We found that prepandemic sera possess robust virus-blocking capacity against viruses identified several decades later. We also show that serum lacking IgA antibodies is sufficient to block NoV VLP binding to HBGAs. This is essential, considering that 1 in every 600 Caucasian children is IgA deficient.
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