| 1. |
- Andermann, Tobias, et al.
(author)
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iucn_sim: a new program to simulate future extinctions based on IUCN threat status
- 2021
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In: Ecography. - : Wiley. - 0906-7590 .- 1600-0587. ; 44:2, s. 162-176
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The ongoing environmental crisis poses an urgent need to forecast the who, where and when of future species extinctions, as such information is crucial for targeting conservation efforts. Commonly, such forecasts are made based on conservation status assessments produced by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). However, when researchers apply these IUCN conservation status data for predicting future extinctions, important information is often omitted, which can impact the accuracy of these predictions. Here we present a new approach and a software for simulating future extinctions based on IUCN conservation status information, which incorporates generation length information of individual species when modeling extinction risks. Additionally, we explicitly model future changes in conservation status for each species, based on status transition rates that we estimate from the IUCN assessment history of the last decades. Finally, we apply a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to estimate extinction rates for each species, based on the simulated future extinctions. These estimates inherently incorporate the chances of conservation status changes and the generation length for each given species and are specific to the simulated time frame. We demonstrate the utility of our approach by estimating future extinction rates for all bird species. Our average extinction rate estimate for the next 100 yr across all birds is 6.98 x 10(-4) extinctions per species-year, and we predict an expected biodiversity loss of between 669 and 738 bird species within that time frame. Further, the rate estimates between species sharing the same IUCN status show larger variation than the rates estimated with alternative approaches, which reflects expected differences in extinction risk among taxa of the same conservation status. Our method demonstrates the utility of applying species-specific information to the estimation of extinction rates, rather than assuming equal extinction risks for species assigned to the same conservation status.
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| 2. |
- Andermann, Tobias, et al.
(author)
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The past and future human impact on mammalian diversity
- 2020
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In: Science Advances. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 2375-2548. ; 6:36
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- To understand the current biodiversity crisis, it is crucial to determine how humans have affected biodiversity in the past. However, the extent of human involvement in species extinctions from the Late Pleistocene onward remains contentious. Here, we apply Bayesian models to the fossil record to estimate how mammalian extinction rates have changed over the past 126,000 years, inferring specific times of rate increases. We specifically test the hypothesis of human-caused extinctions by using posterior predictive methods. We find that human population size is able to predict past extinctions with 96% accuracy. Predictors based on past climate, in contrast, perform no better than expected by chance, suggesting that climate had a negligible impact on global mammal extinctions. Based on current trends, we predict for the near future a rate escalation of unprecedented magnitude. Our results provide a comprehensive assessment of the human impact on past and predicted future extinctions of mammals.
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| 3. |
- Antonelli, Alexandre, 1978, et al.
(author)
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Madagascar's extraordinary biodiversity : Evolution, distribution, and use
- 2022
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In: Science. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 0036-8075 .- 1095-9203. ; 378:6623, s. 962-
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Madagascar's biota is hyperdiverse and includes exceptional levels of endemicity. We review the current state of knowledge on Madagascar's past and current terrestrial and freshwater biodiversity by compiling and presenting comprehensive data on species diversity, endemism, and rates of species description and human uses, in addition to presenting an updated and simplified map of vegetation types. We report a substantial increase of records and species new to science in recent years; however, the diversity and evolution of many groups remain practically unknown (e.g., fungi and most invertebrates). Digitization efforts are increasing the resolution of species richness patterns and we highlight the crucial role of field- and collections-based research for advancing biodiversity knowledge and identifying gaps in our understanding, particularly as species richness corresponds closely to collection effort. Phylogenetic diversity patterns mirror that of species richness and endemism in most of the analyzed groups. We highlight humid forests as centers of diversity and endemism because of their role as refugia and centers of recent and rapid radiations. However, the distinct endemism of other areas, such as the grassland-woodland mosaic of the Central Highlands and the spiny forest of the southwest, is also biologically important despite lower species richness. The documented uses of Malagasy biodiversity are manifold, with much potential for the uncovering of new useful traits for food, medicine, and climate mitigation. The data presented here showcase Madagascar as a unique " living laboratory" for our understanding of evolution and the complex interactions between people and nature. The gathering and analysis of biodiversity data must continue and accelerate if we are to fully understand and safeguard this unique subset of Earth's biodiversity.
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| 4. |
- Aronsson, Heléne, 1994, et al.
(author)
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Expert-based range maps cannot be replicated using data-driven methods but macroecological conclusions arising from them can
- 2024
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In: JOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY. - 0305-0270 .- 1365-2699.
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- AimAnswering many fundamental and applied scientific questions relies on accurate geographic range maps for species, such as those compiled by experts working with the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). However, these maps are resource demanding to produce and only available for a limited number of organisms. Here, we test to what extent standardized, data-driven methods based on publicly available occurrences can reproduce expert-based IUCN range maps and the macroecological conclusions drawn from them.LocationGlobal.Time PeriodPresent.TaxaBirds.Materials and MethodsWe estimated the geographic ranges for 7385 non-marine bird species which either were non-migratory or had spatially connected breeding and wintering ranges from publicly available, georeferenced point occurrences. We then quantified the spatial overlap between these range estimates and the IUCN expert-derived range estimates. Finally, we compared global species richness patterns and the environmental correlates that emerge from both approaches.ResultsWe find that range estimates based on point occurrence records overlap on average 52% with expert range estimates for the same species. The global species richness patterns estimated under both approaches are overall similar but show local and regional differences, for example, in the tropical Andes of northern South America and the Central Arc region of Africa. The estimated global drivers of richness are similar.Main ConclusionsExpert-derived estimates of species distributions are not reproducible by data-driven approaches relying on currently available public records, even for well-documented taxa such as birds. However, these discrepancies do not substantially change our macroecological understanding of global drivers of bird diversity.
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| 5. |
- Azevedo, Josué, et al.
(author)
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Contrasting patterns of phylogenetic turnover in amphibians and reptiles are driven by environment and geography in Neotropical savannas
- 2021
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In: Journal of Biogeography. - : Wiley. - 0305-0270 .- 1365-2699. ; 48:8, s. 2008-2021
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Aim: Cross-taxonomic congruence in biodiversity patterns is key to understanding the main drivers of community structure, for biogeographical regionalization and to guide conservation. We aim to map the patterns of phylogenetic turnover and disentangle the geographical and environmental factors that drive the phylogenetic composition of distinct faunal assemblages. Location: The Cerrado savannas of South America. Taxa: Reptiles and amphibians. Methods: We measured the proportion of phylogenetic branches shared among sites (i.e. phylogenetic turnover) using presence-absence matrices for all species in the Cerrado and for endemics only, including only well-sampled localities from previously compiled inventories. We then tested whether phylogenetic turnover is different from null expectations based on taxonomic turnover. We used generalized dissimilarity modelling (GDM) to test whether geography, topography, soil or climate best explain phylogenetic turnover. Finally, we mapped the observed and the GDM-predicted clustering of phylogenetic turnover to assess geographical congruence between reptiles and amphibians. Results: For all reptiles, geographical distance is the most important factor explaining phylogenetic turnover, whereas for endemic reptiles and amphibians, in general, a set of climatic variables and relief roughness are more important. We did not find any significant correlation between the phylogenetic turnover of reptiles and amphibians, as evidenced by non-congruent phylogenetic clustering and by different responses to geographical and environmental gradients. Main conclusions: The different relationships of phylogenetic turnover of reptiles and amphibians to geographical and environmental distances have ultimately shaped the phylogenetic regionalization of these two groups. This incongruence indicates the differential importance of niche filtering, dispersal limitation and the influence of neighbouring biomes in the regionalization of different groups of organisms. Therefore, diversity patterns of one group should ideally not be used as a surrogate to map general patterns or to understand the drivers of diversity of other co-occurring groups. Thus, conservation efforts need to be designed and implemented for each organismal group. © 2021 John Wiley & Sons Ltd
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| 6. |
- Azevedo, Josué, et al.
(author)
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Deforestation limits evolutionary rescue under climate change in Amazonian lizards
- 2024
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In: DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS. - 1366-9516 .- 1472-4642. ; 30:7
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- AimThe impact of climate change on biodiversity is often analysed under a stable evolutionary perspective focused on whether species can currently tolerate warmer climates. However, species may adapt to changes, and particularly under conditions of low habitat fragmentation, standing adaptive genetic variation can spread across populations tracking changing climates, increasing the potential for evolutionary rescue. Here, our aim is to integrate genomic data, niche modelling and landscape ecology to predict range shifts and the potential for evolutionary rescue.LocationThe megadiverse Amazonian rainforest.MethodsWe use genome-environment association analyses to search for candidate loci under environmental selection, while accounting for neutral genetic variation in a widespread Amazonian whiptail lizard (Teiidae: Kentropyx calcarata). We then model the distribution of individuals with genotypes adapted to different climate conditions. We predict range shifts for each genotype in distinct future climate change scenarios by integrating this information with dispersal constraints based on predicted scenarios of forest cover across Amazonia. The predicted ranges of each genotype were then overlapped to infer the potential for evolutionary rescue.ResultsWe find that the potential for evolutionary rescue and, therefore, a smaller degree of range loss buffering extinction risk in the future is considerably high, provided that current forest cover is retained and climate change is not extreme. However, under extreme environmental change scenarios, range loss will be high in central and southern Amazonia, irrespective of the degree of deforestation.Main ConclusionsOur results suggest that protecting the Amazonian rainforest against further deforestation and mitigating climate change to moderate scenarios until 2070 could foster evolutionary rescue of ectothermic organisms. These actions could prevent substantial biodiversity loss in Amazonia, emphasizing the importance of understanding species adaptability in maintaining biodiversity.
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| 7. |
- Azevedo, Josué, et al.
(author)
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Museums and cradles of diversity are geographically coincident for narrowly distributed Neotropical snakes
- 2020
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In: Ecography. - : Wiley. - 0906-7590 .- 1600-0587. ; 43:2, s. 328-339
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Factors driving the spatial configuration of centres of endemism have long been a topic of broad interest and debate. Due to different eco-evolutionary processes, these highly biodiverse areas may harbour different amounts of ancient and recently diverged organisms (paleo- and neo-endemism, respectively). Patterns of endemism still need to be measured at distinct phylogenetic levels for most clades and, consequently, little is known about the distribution, the age and the causes of such patterns. Here we tested for the presence of centres with high phylogenetic endemism (PE) in the highly diverse Neotropical snakes, testing the age of these patterns (paleo- or neo-endemism), and the presence of PE centres with distinct phylogenetic composition. We then tested whether PE is predicted by topography, by climate (seasonality, stability, buffering and relictualness), or biome size. We found that most areas of high PE for Neotropical snakes present a combination of both ancient and recently diverged diversity, which is distributed mostly in the Caribbean region, Central America, the Andes, the Atlantic Forest and on scattered highlands in central Brazil. Turnover of lineages is higher across Central America, resulting in more phylogenetically distinct PE centres compared to South America, which presents a more phylogenetically uniform snake fauna. Finally, we found that elevational range (topographic roughness) is the main predictor of PE, especially for paleo-endemism, whereas low paleo-endemism levels coincide with areas of high climatic seasonality. Our study highlights the importance of mountain systems to both ancient and recent narrowly distributed diversity. Mountains are both museums and cradles of snake diversity in the Neotropics, which has important implications for conservation in this region.
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| 8. |
- Bakker, F. T., et al.
(author)
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The Global Museum: natural history collections and the future of evolutionary science and public education
- 2020
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In: PeerJ. - : PeerJ. - 2167-8359. ; 8
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Natural history museums are unique spaces for interdisciplinary research and educational innovation. Through extensive exhibits and public programming and by hosting rich communities of amateurs, students, and researchers at all stages of their careers, they can provide a place-based window to focus on integration of science and discovery, as well as a locus for community engagement. At the same time, like a synthesis radio telescope, when joined together through emerging digital resources, the global community of museums (the 'Global Museum') is more than the sum of its parts, allowing insights and answers to diverse biological, environmental, and societal questions at the global scale, across eons of time, and spanning vast diversity across the Tree of Life. We argue that, whereas natural history collections and museums began with a focus on describing the diversity and peculiarities of species on Earth, they are now increasingly leveraged in new ways that significantly expand their impact and relevance. These new directions include the possibility to ask new, often interdisciplinary questions in basic and applied science, such as in biomimetic design, and by contributing to solutions to climate change, global health and food security challenges. As institutions, they have long been incubators for cutting-edge research in biology while simultaneously providing core infrastructure for research on present and future societal needs. Here we explore how the intersection between pressing issues in environmental and human health and rapid technological innovation have reinforced the relevance of museum collections. We do this by providing examples as food for thought for both the broader academic community and museum scientists on the evolving role of museums. We also identify challenges to the realization of the full potential of natural history collections and the Global Museum to science and society and discuss the critical need to grow these collections. We then focus on mapping and modelling of museum data (including place-based approaches and discovery), and explore the main projects, platforms and databases enabling this growth. Finally, we aim to improve relevant protocols for the long-term storage of specimens and tissues, ensuring proper connection with tomorrow's technologies and hence further increasing the relevance of natural history museums.
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| 9. |
- Belote, R. T., et al.
(author)
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Mammal species composition reveals new insights into Earth's remaining wilderness
- 2020
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In: Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment. - : Wiley. - 1540-9295 .- 1540-9309. ; 18:7, s. 376-383
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Maps of the human footprint allow ecologists to identify the wildest lands on the planet, track their decline, and prioritize wildland conservation efforts. Other research efforts have mapped biological intactness and identified conservation priorities to protect biodiversity. However, little research has involved the use of historical references to evaluate intactness of species composition globally. We used a dataset estimating historical and current distributions of mammals to address whether the wildest places on Earth support the most intact mammal communities. Contrary to our expectations, we found that the global human footprint was not strongly correlated with mammal community intactness and uncovered surprising situations where both the human footprint and mammal species intactness were high, and other examples where both were low. Our results could be used to enhance maps and estimates of global wilderness areas by identifying wild and intact regions, while also prioritizing conservation of intact but human-modified landscapes. © The Ecological Society of America
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| 10. |
- Carrillo, Juan D., et al.
(author)
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Disproportionate extinction of South American mammals drove the asymmetry of the Great American Biotic Interchange
- 2020
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In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. - : Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. - 0027-8424. ; 117:42, s. 26281-26287
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The interchange between the previously disconnected faunas of North and South America was a massive experiment in biological invasion. A major gap in our understanding of this invasion is why there was a drastic increase in the proportion of mammals of North American origin found in South America. Four nonmutually exclusive mechanisms may explain this asymmetry: 1) Higher dispersal rate of North American mammals toward the south, 2) higher origination of North American immigrants in South America, 3) higher extinction of mammals with South American origin, and 4) similar dispersal rate but a larger pool of native taxa in North versus South America. We test among these mechanisms by analyzing similar to 20,000 fossil occurrences with Bayesian methods to infer dispersal and diversification rates and taxonomic selectivity of immigrants. We find no differences in the dispersal and origination rates of immigrants. In contrast, native South American mammals show higher extinction. We also find that two clades with North American origin (Carnivora and Artiodactyla) had significantly more immigrants in South America than other clades. Altogether, the asymmetry of the interchange was not due to higher origination of immigrants in South America as previously suggested, but resulted from higher extinction of native taxa in southern South America. These results from one of the greatest biological invasions highlight how biogeographic processes and biotic interactions can shape continental diversity.
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