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- Vos, Theo, et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2015
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In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 386:9995, s. 743-800
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Methods Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refinements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally and at the country level for 2013. In total, 35 620 distinct sources of data were used and documented to calculated estimates for 301 diseases and injuries and 2337 sequelae. The comorbidity simulation provides estimates for the number of sequelae, concurrently, by individuals by country, year, age, and sex. Disability weights were updated with the addition of new population-based survey data from four countries. Findings Disease and injury were highly prevalent; only a small fraction of individuals had no sequelae. Comorbidity rose substantially with age and in absolute terms from 1990 to 2013. Incidence of acute sequelae were predominantly infectious diseases and short-term injuries, with over 2 billion cases of upper respiratory infections and diarrhoeal disease episodes in 2013, with the notable exception of tooth pain due to permanent caries with more than 200 million incident cases in 2013. Conversely, leading chronic sequelae were largely attributable to non-communicable diseases, with prevalence estimates for asymptomatic permanent caries and tension-type headache of 2.4 billion and 1.6 billion, respectively. The distribution of the number of sequelae in populations varied widely across regions, with an expected relation between age and disease prevalence. YLDs for both sexes increased from 537.6 million in 1990 to 764.8 million in 2013 due to population growth and ageing, whereas the age-standardised rate decreased little from 114.87 per 1000 people to 110.31 per 1000 people between 1990 and 2013. Leading causes of YLDs included low back pain and major depressive disorder among the top ten causes of YLDs in every country. YLD rates per person, by major cause groups, indicated the main drivers of increases were due to musculoskeletal, mental, and substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and chronic respiratory diseases; however HIV/AIDS was a notable driver of increasing YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, the proportion of disability-adjusted life years due to YLDs increased globally from 21.1% in 1990 to 31.2% in 2013. Interpretation Ageing of the world's population is leading to a substantial increase in the numbers of individuals with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Rates of YLDs are declining much more slowly than mortality rates. The non-fatal dimensions of disease and injury will require more and more attention from health systems. The transition to non-fatal outcomes as the dominant source of burden of disease is occurring rapidly outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results can guide future health initiatives through examination of epidemiological trends and a better understanding of variation across countries.
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- Watt, F. E., et al.
(author)
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Towards prevention of post-traumatic osteoarthritis : report from an international expert working group on considerations for the design and conduct of interventional studies following acute knee injury
- 2019
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In: Osteoarthritis and Cartilage. - : Elsevier BV. - 1063-4584. ; 27:1, s. 23-33
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Objective: There are few guidelines for clinical trials of interventions for prevention of post-traumatic osteoarthritis (PTOA), reflecting challenges in this area. An international multi-disciplinary expert group including patients was convened to generate points to consider for the design and conduct of interventional studies following acute knee injury. Design: An evidence review on acute knee injury interventional studies to prevent PTOA was presented to the group, alongside overviews of challenges in this area, including potential targets, biomarkers and imaging. Working groups considered pre-identified key areas: eligibility criteria and outcomes, biomarkers, injury definition and intervention timing including multi-modality interventions. Consensus agreement within the group on points to consider was generated and is reported here after iterative review by all contributors. Results: The evidence review identified 37 studies. Study duration and outcomes varied widely and 70% examined surgical interventions. Considerations were grouped into three areas: justification of inclusion criteria including the classification of injury and participant age (as people over 35 may have pre-existing OA); careful consideration in the selection and timing of outcomes or biomarkers; definition of the intervention(s)/comparator(s) and the appropriate time-window for intervention (considerations may be particular to intervention type). Areas for further research included demonstrating the utility of patient-reported outcomes, biomarkers and imaging outcomes from ancillary/cohort studies in this area, and development of surrogate clinical trial endpoints that shorten the duration of clinical trials and are acceptable to regulatory agencies. Conclusions: These considerations represent the first international consensus on the conduct of interventional studies following acute knee joint trauma.
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- Leyland, K. M., et al.
(author)
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Harmonising measures of knee and hip osteoarthritis in population-based cohort studies : an international study
- 2018
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In: Osteoarthritis and Cartilage. - : Elsevier BV. - 1063-4584. ; 26:7, s. 872-879
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Objective: Population-based osteoarthritis (OA) cohorts provide vital data on risk factors and outcomes of OA, however the methods to define OA vary between cohorts. We aimed to provide recommendations for combining knee and hip OA data in extant and future population cohort studies, in order to facilitate informative individual participant level analyses. Method: International OA experts met to make recommendations on: 1) defining OA by X-ray and/or pain; 2) compare The National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES)-type OA pain questions; 3) the comparability of the Western Ontario & McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) scale to NHANES-type OA pain questions; 4) the best radiographic scoring method; 5) the usefulness of other OA outcome measures. Key issues were explored using new analyses in two population-based OA cohorts (Multicenter Osteoarthritis Study; MOST and Osteoarthritis Initiative OAI). Results: OA should be defined by both symptoms and radiographs, with symptoms alone as a secondary definition. Kellgren and Lawrence (K/L) grade ≥2 should be used to define radiographic OA (ROA). The variable wording of pain questions can result in varying prevalence between 41.0% and 75.4%, however questions where the time anchor is similar have high sensitivity and specificity (91.2% and 89.9% respectively). A threshold of 3 on a 0–20 scale (95% CI 2.1, 3.9) in the WOMAC pain subscale demonstrated equivalence with the preferred NHANES-type question. Conclusion: This research provides recommendations, based on expert agreement, for harmonising and combining OA data in existing and future population-based cohorts.
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- Podsiadlo, P., et al.
(author)
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Baseline trabecular bone and its relation to incident radiographic knee osteoarthritis and increase in joint space narrowing score : directional fractal signature analysis in the MOST study
- 2016
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In: Osteoarthritis and Cartilage. - : Elsevier BV. - 1063-4584. ; 24:10, s. 1736-1744
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Purpose To explore the association of baseline trabecular bone structure with incident tibiofemoral (TF) osteoarthritis (OA) and with increase in joint space narrowing (JSN) score. Methods The Multicenter Osteoarthritis Study (MOST) includes subjects with or at risk for knee OA. Knee radiographs were scored for Kellgren–Lawrence (KL) grade and JSN at baseline, 30, 60 and 84 months. Knees (KL ≤ 1) at baseline were assessed for incident OA (KL ≥ 2) and increases in JSN score. For each knee image at baseline, a variance orientation transform method (VOT) was applied to subchondral tibial bone regions of medial and lateral compartments. Seventeen fractal parameters were calculated per region. Associations of each parameter with OA incidence and with medial and lateral JSN increases were explored using logistic regression. Analyses were stratified by digitized film (DF) vs computer radiography (CR) and adjusted for confounders. Results Of 894 knees with CR and 1158 knees with DF, 195 (22%) and 303 (26%) developed incident OA. Higher medial bone roughness was associated with increased odds of OA incidence at 60 and 84 months and also, medial and lateral JSN increases (primarily vertical). Lower medial and lateral anisotropy was associated with increased odds of medial and lateral JSN increase. Compared to DF, CR had more associations and also, similar results at overlapping scales. Conclusion Baseline trabecular bone texture was associated with incident radiographic OA and increase of JSN scores independently of risk factors for knee OA. Higher roughness and lower anisotropy were associated with increased odds for radiographic OA change.
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| 8. |
- Roemer, Frank W., et al.
(author)
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Structural effects of sprifermin in knee osteoarthritis : a post-hoc analysis on cartilage and non-cartilaginous tissue alterations in a randomized controlled trial
- 2016
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In: BMC Musculoskeletal Disorders. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1471-2474. ; 17:1, s. 1-7
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: A recent publication on efficacy of Sprifermin for knee osteoarthritis (OA) using quantitatively MRI-defined central medial tibio-femoral compartment cartilage thickness as the structural primary endpoint reported no statistically significant dose response. However, Sprifermin was associated with statistically significant, dose-dependent reductions in loss of total and lateral tibio-femoral cartilage thickness. Based on these preliminary promising data a post-hoc analysis of secondary assessment and endpoints was performed to evaluate potential effects of Sprifermin on semi-quantitatively evaluated structural MRI parameters. Aim of the present analysis was to determine effects of sprifermin on several knee joint tissues over a 12 month period. Methods: 1.5 T or 3 T MRIs were acquired at baseline and 12 months follow-up using a standard protocol. MRIs were read according to the Whole-Organ Magnetic Resonance Imaging Score (WORMS) scoring system (in 14 articular subregions) by four muskuloskeletal radiologists independently. Analyses focused on semiquantitative changes in the 100 μg subgroup and matching placebo of multiple MRI-defined structural alterations. Analyses included a delta-subregional and delta-sum approach for the whole knee and the medial and lateral tibio-femoral (MTFJ, LTFJ), and patello-femoral (PFJ) compartments, taking into account number of subregions showing no change, improvement or worsening and changes in the sum of subregional scores. Mann-Whitney − Wilcoxon tests assessed differences between groups. Results: Fifty-seven and 18 patients were included in the treatment and matched placebo subgroups. Less worsening of cartilage damage was observed from baseline to 12 months in the PFJ (0.02, 95 % confidence interval (CI) (−0.04, 0.08) vs. placebo 0.22, 95 % CI (−0.05, 0.49), p = 0.046). For bone marrow lesions (BMLs), more improvement was observed from 6 to 12 months for whole knee analyses (−0.14, 95 % CI (−0.48, 0.19) vs. placebo 0.44, 95 % CI (−0.15, 1.04), p = 0.042) although no significant effects were seen from the baseline visit, or in Hoffa-synovitis, effusion-synovitis, menisci and osteophytes. Conclusions: In this post-hoc analysis cartilage showed less worsening from baseline to 12 months in the PFJ, and BMLs showed more improvement from 6 to 12 months for the whole knee. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT01033994 .
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| 9. |
- Svensson, F., et al.
(author)
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Scrutinizing the cut-off for “pathological” meniscal body extrusion on knee MRI
- 2019
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In: European Radiology. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0938-7994 .- 1432-1084. ; 29:5, s. 2616-2623
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Objectives: Medial meniscal body extrusion ≥ 3 mm on MRI is often considered “pathologic.” The aims of this study were to (1) assess the adequacy of 3 mm as cut-off for “pathological” extrusion and (2) find an optimal cut-off for meniscal extrusion cross-sectionally associated with radiographic knee osteoarthritis, bone marrow lesions (BMLs), and cartilage damage. Methods: Nine hundred fifty-eight persons, aged 50–90 years from Framingham, MA, USA, had readable 1.5 T MRI scans of the right knee for meniscal body extrusion (measured in mm). BMLs and cartilage damage were read using the whole organ magnetic resonance imaging score (WORMS). Knee X-rays were read according to the Kellgren and Lawrence (KL) scale. We evaluated the performance of the 3-mm cut-off with respect to the three outcomes and estimated a new cut-off maximizing the sum of sensitivity and specificity. Results: The study persons had mean age of 62.2 years, 57.0% were women and the mean body mass index was 28.5 kg/m2. Knees with radiographic osteoarthritis, BMLs, and cartilage damage had overall more meniscal extrusion than knees without. The 3-mm cut-off had moderate sensitivity and low specificity for all three outcomes (sensitivity between 0.68 [95% CI 0.63–0.73] and 0.81 [0.73–0.87], specificity between 0.49 [0.45–0.52] and 0.54 [0.49–0.58]). Using 4 mm maximized the sum of sensitivity and specificity and improved the percentage of correctly classified subjects (from between 54 and 61% to between 64 and 79%). Conclusions: The 4-mm cut-off may be used as an alternative cut-off for denoting pathological meniscal extrusion. Key Points: • Medial meniscal body extrusion is strongly associated with osteoarthritis. • The 3-mm cut-off for medial meniscal body extrusion has high sensitivity but low specificity with respect to bone marrow lesions, cartilage damage, and radiographic osteoarthritis. • The 4-mm cut-off maximizes the sensitivity and specificity with respect to all three osteoarthritis features.
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