| 1. |
- Johansson, L., et al.
(författare)
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Modeling of Leisure Craft Emissions
- 2020
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Ingår i: Springer Proceedings in Complexity. - Cham : Springer International Publishing. - 2213-8684 .- 2213-8692. ; , s. 205-210
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Commercial shipping fleet and its emissions can be modeled in detail, but the emission from leisure craft are often invisible for activity based, bottom-up emission inventories. A new model (FMI-BEAM) describes the emissions from the leisure craft fleet in the Baltic Sea area, complementing the existing STEAM emission modeling suite. BEAM combines information from over 3000 boat marina locations, national small boat registries, Automatic Identification System data and boat survey results to derive leisure boat emissions for over 250,000 boats around the Baltic Sea coastline. The location of marinas and boat counts were determined from satellite images and other available data. With the BEAM leisure craft simulation model the spatial and temporal distribution of air emissions can be estimated. The presented results describe our first attempt to generate fuel consumption and emission inventory for small boats which have been underrepresented in current emission inventories. Small boat activity often occurs near the coastline in vicinity of populated areas and leisure craft emissions contribute to local air quality. The emissions of carbon monoxide and hydrocarbons are high compared to the emissions of commercial shipping, because very high emission levels are allowed for old small boat engines according to current legislation. The approach described in this paper can be applied in larger scale, for example to cover European coastlines in the future.
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| 2. |
- Kukkonen, J., et al.
(författare)
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Towards a Comprehensive Evaluation of the Environmental and Health Impacts of Shipping Emissions
- 2022
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Ingår i: Springer Proceedings in Complexity. - Cham : Springer International Publishing. - 2213-8684 .- 2213-8692. ; , s. 329-336
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present a new concept for marine research, applied in the EU-funded project EMERGE, “Evaluation, control and Mitigation of the EnviRonmental impacts of shippinG Emissions” (2020–2024; https://emerge-h2020.eu/ ). For the first time, both the various marine and atmospheric impacts of the shipping sector have been and will be comprehensively analyzed, using a concerted modelling and measurements framework. The experimental part of the project focuses on five European geographical case studies in different ecologically vulnerable regions, and a mobile onboard case study. The EMERGE consortium has also developed a harmonised and integrated modelling framework to assess the combined impacts of shipping emissions, both (i) on the marine ecosystems and (ii) the atmospheric environment. The first results include substantial refinements of a range of models to be applied, especially those for the STEAM and OpenDrift models. In particular, the STEAM (Ship Traffic Emission Assessment Model) model has been extended to allow for the effects of atmospheric and oceanographic factors on the fuel consumption and emissions of the ships. The OpenDrift model has been improved to take into account the partitioning, degradation, and volatilization of pollutants in water. The predicted emission and discharge values have been used as input for both regional scale atmospheric dispersion models, such as WRF-CMAQ (Weather Research and Forecasting—Community Multiscale Air Quality Model) and SILAM (System for Integrated modeLling of Atmospheric composition), and water quality and circulation models, such as OpenDrift (Open source model for the drifting of substances in the ocean) and Delft3D (oceanographic model). The case study regions are Eastern Mediterranean, Northern Adriatic Sea, the Lagoon of Aveiro, the Solent Strait and the Öresund Strait. We have also conducted a substantial part of the experimental campaigns scheduled in the project. The final assessment will include the benefits and costs of control and mitigation options affecting water quality, air pollution exposure, health impacts, climate forcing, and ecotoxicological effects and bioaccumulation of pollutants in marine biota.
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| 3. |
- Lunde Hermansson, Anna, 1987, et al.
(författare)
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Strong economic incentives of ship scrubbers promoting pollution
- 2024
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Ingår i: Nature Sustainability. - Göteborg : IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet. - 2398-9629. ; In Press
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In response to stricter regulations on ship air emissions, many shipowners have installed exhaust gas cleaning systems, known as scrubbers, allowing for use of cheap residual heavy fuel oil. Scrubbers produce large volumes of acidic and polluted water that is discharged to the sea. Due to environmental concerns, the use of scrubbers is being discussed within the International Maritime Organization. Real-world simulations of global scrubber-vessel activity, applying actual fuel costs and expenses related to scrubber operations, show that 51% of the global scrubber-fitted fleet reached economic break even by the end of 2022, with a surplus of €4.7 billion in 2019 euros. Within five years after installation, more than 95% of the ships with the most common scrubber systems reach break even. However, the marine ecotoxicity damage cost, from scrubber water discharge in the Baltic Sea Area 2014–2022, amounts to >€680 million in 2019 euros, showing that private economic interests come at the expense of marine environmental damage.
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| 4. |
- Moldanova, Jana, et al.
(författare)
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Framework for the environmental impact assessment of operational shipping
- 2022
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Ingår i: Ambio. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0044-7447 .- 1654-7209. ; 51:3, s. 754-769
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Shipping is an important source of pollution affecting both atmospheric and aquatic environments. To allow for efficient mitigation of environmental degradation, it is essential to know the extent of the impacts of shipping in relation to other sources of pollution. Here, we give a perspective on a holistic approach to studies of the environmental impacts of operational shipping through presentation of an assessment framework developed and applied on a case of shipping in the Baltic Sea. Through transfer of knowledge and concepts, previously used in assessments of air pollution, now applied to assessments of marine pollution and underwater noise, the horizon of understanding of shipping-related impacts is significantly improved. It identifies the main areas of environmental degradation caused by shipping and potential improvements through legislation and technological development. However, as the vast majority of contaminants discharged into the sea are not routinely monitored and assessed, the links between pressure of contaminants from shipping and environmental state and impacts will not be caught in the current environmental regulatory frameworks.
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| 5. |
- Ytreberg, Erik, 1980, et al.
(författare)
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EMERGE deliverable 6.1. Baltic and North Sea report
- 2023
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Shipping is responsible for a range of different pressures affecting air quality, climate, and the marine environment. However, most social and economic analysis of shipping have focused on air pollution assessment and how shipping may impact climate change and human health. This risks policies to be biased towards air pollution and climate change, while trading off impacts on the marine environment. One example is the IMO’s global sulphur cap, which requires shipowners to use a compliant fuel with a sulphur content of 0.5% (0.1% in SECA regions) or use alternative compliance options (scrubbers) that are effective in reducing sulphur oxide (SOX) emissions to the atmosphere. The scrubber process results in large volumes of acidic discharge water. Although regulations primarily target SOX removal, other pollutants such as polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and metals are transferred from the exhausts to the wash water and subsequently discharged to the marine environment. The aim of this deliverable has therefore been to develop a holistic framework to evaluate the impacts of shipping emissions, particularly those related to scrubbers, on the marine environment, human health, climate, and economy. The structure of this deliverable follows the well-established DAPSIR (Driver-Activity-Pressure-State-Impact-Response) framework, under which information, findings and conclusions from previous work packages are synthesized and integrated, including experiments of direct emissions from shipping to the marine environment (WP2) and the atmosphere (WP3), assessment of marine environmental impacts (WP2, WP4 and WP6), as well as human health and climate change impacts (WP5 and WP6). Finally, this deliverable provides recommendations and guidance for stakeholders and policymakers. The assessment is performed using a baseline scenario (year 2018) and three future scenarios (for year 2050) based on different projected future developments of shipping transport volumes and considering the development of ships regarding fuel efficiency and ship size. In this deliverable, we focused primarily on two of the different future scenarios, scenario 3 (high scrubber pressure) and scenario 8 (high use of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and methanol). The marine environmental risk assessment, performed in the Öresund region for the baseline scenario (2018), showed unacceptable risks when ships in the area were using open loop scrubbers. In the assessment, modelled predicted environmental concentrations (PECs) of open loop scrubber discharge water exceeded the tolerable marine threshold value (predicted no-effect concentration, PNEC) in almost the entire Öresund region. The PEC value was derived based on ship activity and discharges of scrubber water in 2018, while the PNEC value was derived based on the ecotoxicological assays performed within the EMERGE project. Notably, the modelling of open loop scrubber discharge water was performed using the ship traffic activity in 2018 when less than 200 ships in the Baltic Sea used scrubbers, collectively releasing 192 million tonnes of discharge water. By 2022 there were approximately 800 ships equipped with scrubbers in the Baltic Sea. In the high scrubber future scenario (S3) in 2050 this led to an assumption of the considerably higher scrubber water discharge (1740 million tonnes), representing almost one order of magnitude higher compared to our baseline scenario in 2018. In addition, our impact assessment, following Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC) guidelines, shows that a ban on discharge water from scrubbers should be considered in the entire Baltic and North Sea region, since all sea basins in the region fail to reach good environmental status (GES) as defined by the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive (Directive 2008/56/EC). However, the costs of such a measure for the shipping sector (banning discharges from scrubbers, i.e., in practice a ban on scrubbers) have been questioned within the International Maritime Organisation (IMO). Therefore, EMERGE also focused on analysing to what extent the global scrubber fleet has reached break-even on their scrubber installations and the potential monetary gain of using Heavy Fuel Oil (HFO) as compared to the more expensive Marine Gas Oil (MGO) or Very Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (VLSFO). Our results showed that 51% of the global scrubber fleet had reached break-even by the end of 2022, resulting in a summarised balance of 4.7 billion €2019. In addition, the marine ecotoxicity damage cost, by not restricting scrubbers in the Baltic Sea Area, accumulated to >680 million €2019 from 2015 to end of 2022. For air quality, both future scenarios showed a decrease in shipping contribution to PM2.5 exposure by a factor of 2 to 3 compared to our baseline scenario in 2018. Scenario 8 is somewhat more efficient in decreasing the shipping originated PM2.5 than scenario 3. Using the Greenhouse gas and Air pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model for human health impact assessment in scenario 3 revealed the loss of life expectancy in most areas around the Baltic Sea, when considering all sources, to be limited to two to four months. However, the differences in life shortening between Scenarios 3 and 8 are two to three orders of magnitude lower when compared to human health impacts resulting from all sources, indicating that scrubbers alone have a minor impact on human health in the Baltic region from air quality perspective. For Öresund case the shipping-related health impacts from PM2.5 represented approximately 10% of the total burden of air pollution, in 2050 scenario simulations this burden decreased to 7-9%. Important improvement of air quality in the scenario simulations come also from reduction of NO2 which is a criteria pollutant regulated by the Air Quality Directive, where the decrease is 3 to 5-fold. In relative terms the shipping contribution to NO2 concentration levels, however, maintains similar, approximately 25%, as the land emissions are also expected to decrease. The GAINS health impact assessment for the Baltic Sea was compared to the Solent region using a statistical technique. The latter study showed that a relatively small fraction of all premature deaths in Southampton, Portsmouth, Poole, Christchurch & Bournemouth are attributable to air pollution from shipping, corroborating the conclusion that the deployment scrubbers alone has a minor impact on human life shortening through atmospheric transport.
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| 6. |
- Ytreberg, Erik, 1980, et al.
(författare)
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Valuating environmental impacts from ship emissions – The marine perspective
- 2021
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Ingår i: Journal of Environmental Management. - : Elsevier BV. - 0301-4797 .- 1095-8630. ; 282
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Shipping is an activity responsible for a range of different pressures affecting the marine environment, air quality and human welfare. The methodology on how ship emissions impact air quality and human health are comparatively well established and used in cost-benefit analysis of policy proposals. However, the knowledge base is not the same for impacts on the marine environment and a coherent environmental and socio-economic impact assessment of shipping has not yet been made. This risk policies to be biased towards air pollution whilst trading off impacts on the marine environment. The aim of the current study was to develop a comprehensive framework on how different pressures from shipping degrade marine ecosystems, air quality and human welfare. A secondary aim was to quantify the societal damage costs of shipping due to the degradation of human welfare in a Baltic Sea case study. By adding knowledge from marine ecotoxicology and life-cycle analysis to the existing knowledge from climate, air pollution and environmental economics we were able to establish a more comprehensive conceptual framework that allows for valuation of environmental impacts from shipping, but it still omits economic values for biological pollution, littering and underwater noise. The results for the Baltic Sea case showed the total annual damage costs of Baltic Sea shipping to be 2.9 billion €2010 (95% CI 2.0–3.9 billion €2010). The damage costs due to impacts on marine eutrophication (768 million €2010) and marine ecotoxicity (582 million €2010) were in the same range as the total damage costs associated with reduced air quality (816 million €2010) and climate change (737 million €2010). The framework and the results from the current study can be used in future socio-economic assessments of ship emissions to prioritize cost efficient measures. The framework can be used globally but the damage costs presented on the marine environment are restricted to emissions on the Baltic Sea and Kattegat region as they are based on willingness to pay studies conducted on citizens around the Baltic Sea where eutrophication and emissions of chemicals are particularly threats to the state of the Baltic Sea.
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| 7. |
- Flodén, Jonas, 1974, et al.
(författare)
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Shipping in the EU emissions trading system: implications for mitigation, costs and modal split
- 2024
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Ingår i: Climate Policy. - Stockholm : IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet. - 1752-7457 .- 1469-3062. ; In Press
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- EU recently decided to include shipping, meaning all intra-European shipping and 50% of extra-European voyages, in the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) beginning in 2024. This article provides an early assessment of the impacts of the EU ETS on the shipping sector’s potential reductions in greenhouse gas emissions for different types of ships. It further examines selected mitigation measures and the impact on modals split and costs. The study employs a mixed-methods approach combining quantitative estimates (based on data from the EU monitoring, reporting and verification system) with qualitative data and information from interviews with key actors and from previous literature. This approach aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of the impacts of the EU ETS. The inclusion of shipping in the EU ETS is expected to introduce significant incentives to reduce emissions. We estimate that switching to bio-methanol at an emissions allowance price of €90–100/tCO2 will be cost-effective for a minor share of shipping segments (representing about 0.5-5% of all ships), whereas at a price above €150/tCO2 it could be cost-effective for a considerable share (potentially 75%) of ships. In the short term, the costs incurred by the EU ETS will be passed on to transport customers as a surcharge. The increased cost may, unless properly addressed, drive carbon leakage. Meanwhile, a modal shift away from shipping may occur in the roll-on, roll-off (RoRo) and roll-on passenger (RoPax) segments due to direct competition with road and rail transport and the relative ease of shifting to other modes of transport.
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| 8. |
- Fridell, Erik, 1963, et al.
(författare)
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Measurements of Emissions to Air from a Marine Engine Fueled by Methanol
- 2021
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Ingår i: Journal of Marine Science and Application. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1993-5048 .- 1671-9433. ; 20:1, s. 38-143
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Emissions of exhaust gases and particulate matter from a dual fuel marine engine using methanol as fuel with marine gasoil as pilot fuel have been examined for a ferry during operation. The emission factor for nitrogen oxides is lower than what is typically found for marine gasoil but does not reach the tier III limit. The emissions of particulate matter are significantly lower than for fuel oils and similar to what is found for LNG engines. The main part of the particles can be found in the ultrafine range with the peak being at around 18 nm. About 93% of the particles are evaporated and absorbed when using a thermodenuder, and thus a large majority of the particles are volatile. Methanol is a potential future marine fuel that will reduce emissions of air pollutants and can be made as a biofuel to meet emission targets for greenhouse gases.
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| 9. |
- Malmgren, Elin, 1992, et al.
(författare)
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The environmental performance of a fossil-free ship propulsion system with onboard carbon capture – a life cycle assessment of the HyMethShip concept
- 2021
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Ingår i: Sustainable Energy & Fuels. - : Royal Society of Chemistry (RSC). - 2398-4902. ; 5:10, s. 2753-2770
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The climate impact caused by the shipping industry has increased over the past decades despite attempts toimprove the energy efficiency of vessels and lower induced emissions. A tool in reducing climate and otherenvironmental impacts is new low emissions propulsion technologies. These new technologies need toreduce harmful emissions not only in the tailpipe but also over the entire life cycle. This study uses lifecycle assessment to investigate the life cycle environmental impact of a propulsion concept currentlyunder development: the HyMethShip concept. The HyMethShip concept combines electro-methanolenergy storage, an onboard pre-combustion carbon capture system, and a dual fuel internal combustionengine. The concept aims for an almost closed CO2 loop by installing CO2 capture onboard.The CO2 isunloaded in port and converted into electro-methanol which is used to fuel the ship again. This is madepossible by a pre-combustion process converting electro-methanol to hydrogen and CO2. Theassessment is conducted from well-to-propeller and focuses on ship operation in the North Sea in 2030.The results indicate that this technology could be an alternative to reduce the climate impact fromshipping.The results show a lower impact on acidification, climate change, marine eutrophication,particulate matter, photochemical ozone formation, and terrestrial eutrophication compared to internalcombustion engines run on either marine gas oil (0.1% sulphur content), biogenic methanol, fossilmethanol, or electro-methanol. Electricity with low climate and environmental impact is likely requiredto achieve this, and low NOx emissions from combustion processes need to be maintained. A potentialtrade-off is higher toxicity impacts from the HyMethShip concept compared to most other options, dueto metal needs in wind power plants.
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