| 1. |
- Hegmar, Hannes, et al.
(author)
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Performance of novel collagen turnover biomarkers to detect increased liver stiffness in MASLD
- 2024
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In: Journal of Internal Medicine. - : Wiley-Blackwell. - 0954-6820 .- 1365-2796. ; 296:2, s. 177-186
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Cleavage products from collagen formation and degradation hold potential as first-line biomarkers for the risk of advanced fibrosis in patients with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD). Here, we evaluated the performance of PRO-C3, PRO-C6, C4M, PRO-C18L, and the clinical score ADAPT (age, diabetes, PRO-C3, and platelet count) to detect patients with an LSM >8 kPa or >12 kPa in comparison to the Fibrosis-4 Index (FIB-4).METHODS: Serum from patients with MASLD (n = 269) from six Swedish University Hospitals was analyzed using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay-based methods. Liver stiffness measurement (LSM) by vibration-controlled transient elastography was performed. The area under the curve (AUC), calibration curves, and net benefit analysis were used.RESULTS: An LSM >8 kPa was found in 108 (40.1%) patients. PRO-C3, PRO-C6, C4M, and PRO-C18L had AUCs ranging from 0.48 to 0.62. ADAPT had the highest AUC (0.73, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.67-0.79) to detect patients >8 kPa, compared to FIB-4 (0.71, (95%CI = 0.64-0.77, p = 0.35), and had a higher net benefit compared to FIB-4 from a probability threshold of 15%. FIB-4 and ADAPT performed equally well to detect patients with an LSM >12 kPa, AUC 0.76 versus 0.76, p = 0.93.CONCLUSIONS: ADAPT seems to be marginally better than FIB-4 in identifying patients with an LSM >8 kPa. However, the clinical utility of ADAPT as a first line test is uncertain, especially in low-risk populations. The overall performance of FIB-4 was similar to that of ADAPT in detecting patients with an LSM of >12 kPa. Altogether, the results suggest that ADAPT might be useful to detect earlier stages of fibrosis in MASLD, but that FIB-4 remains a first-line test for advanced fibrosis.
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| 2. |
- Akbari, Camilla, et al.
(author)
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Long-term major adverse liver outcomes in 1,260 patients with non-cirrhotic NAFLD
- 2024
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In: JHEP Reports. - : Elsevier. - 2589-5559. ; 6:2
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background & AimsLong-term studies of the prognosis of NAFLD are scarce. Here, we investigated the risk of major adverse liver outcomes (MALO) in a large cohort of patients with NAFLD.MethodsWe conducted a cohort study with data from Swedish university hospitals. Patients (n = 1,260) with NAFLD without cirrhosis were diagnosed through biopsy or radiology, and had fibrosis estimated through vibration-controlled transient elastography, biopsy, or FIB-4 score between 1974 and 2020 and followed up through 2020. Each patient was matched on age, sex, and municipality with up to 10 reference individuals from the general population (n = 12,529). MALO were ascertained from Swedish national registers. The rate of events was estimated by Cox regression.ResultsMALO occurred in 111 (8.8%, incidence rate = 5.9/1,000 person-years) patients with NAFLD and 197 (1.6%, incidence rate = 1.0/1,000 person-years) reference individuals during a median follow up of 13 years. The rate of MALO was higher in patients with NAFLD (hazard ratio = 6.6; 95% CI = 5.2–8.5). The risk of MALO was highly associated with the stage of fibrosis at diagnosis. In the biopsy subcohort (72% of total sample), there was no difference in risk between patients with and without non-alcoholic steatohepatitis. The 20-year cumulative incidences of MALO were 2% for the reference population, 3% for patients with F0, and 35% for F3. Prognostic information from biopsy was comparable to FIB-4 (C-indices around 0.73 vs. 0.72 at 10 years).ConclusionsThis study provides updated information on the natural history of NAFLD, showing a high rate of progression to cirrhosis in F3 and a similar prognostic capacity of non-invasive tests to liver biopsy.Impact and implicationsSeveral implications for clinical care and future research may be noted based on these results. First, the risk estimates for cirrhosis development are important when communicating risk to patients and deciding on clinical monitoring and treatment. Estimates can also be used in updated health-economic evaluations, and for regulatory agencies. Second, our results again highlight the low predictive information obtained from ascertaining NASHstatus by histology and call for more objective means by which to define NASH. Such methods may include artificial intelligence-supported digital pathology. We highlight that NASH is most likely the causal factor for fibrosis progression in NAFLD, but the subjective definition makes the prognostic value of a histological NASH diagnosis of limited value. Third, the finding that prognostic information from biopsy and the very simple Fibrosis-4 score were comparable is important as it may lead to fewer biopsies and further move the field towards non-invasive means by which to define fibrosis and, importantly, use non-invasive tests as outcomes in clinical trials. However, all modalities had modest discriminatory capacity and new risk stratification systems are needed in NAFLD. Repeated measures of non-invasive scores may be a potential solution.
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| 3. |
- Bengtsson, Bonnie, et al.
(author)
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Validity of administrative codes associated with cirrhosis in Sweden
- 2020
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In: Scandinavian Journal of Gastroenterology. - : Taylor & Francis. - 0036-5521 .- 1502-7708. ; 55:10, s. 1205-1210
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Objectives: Although cirrhosisis a major cause of liver-related mortality globally, validation studies of the administrative coding for diagnoses associated with cirrhosis are scarce. We aimed to determine the validity of the International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision (ICD-10) codes corresponding to cirrhosis and its complications in the Swedish National Patient Register (NPR).Methods: We randomly selected 750 patients with ICD codes for either alcohol-related cirrhosis (K70.3), unspecified cirrhosis (K74.6) oesophageal varices (I85.0/I85.9), hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC, C22.0) or ascites (R18.9) registered in the NPR from 72 healthcare centres in 2000-2016. Hospitalisation events and outpatient visits in specialised care were included. Positive predictive values (PPVs) were calculated using the information in the patient charts as the gold standard.Results: Complete data were obtained for 630 (of 750) patients (84%). For alcohol-related cirrhosis, 126/136 cases were correctly coded, corresponding to a PPV of 93% (95% confidence interval, 95%CI: 87-96). The PPV for cirrhosis with unspecified aetiology was 91% (121/133, 95%CI: 85-95) and 96% for oesophageal varices (118/123, 95%CI: 91-99). The PPV was lower for HCC, 84% (91/109, 95%CI: 75-90). The PPV for liver-related ascites was low, 43% (56/129, 95%CI: 35-52), as this category often consisted of non-hepatic ascites. When combining the ascites code with a code for chronic liver disease, the PPV for liver-related ascites increased to 93% (50/54, 95%CI: 82-98).Conclusions: The validity of ICD-10 codes for cirrhosis, oesophageal varices and HCC is high. However, coding for ascites should be combined with a code of chronic liver disease to have an acceptable validity.
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| 4. |
- Bergman, David, et al.
(author)
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Incidence of ICD-based diagnoses of alcohol-related disorders and diseases from swedish nationwide registers and suggestions for coding
- 2020
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In: Clinical Epidemiology. - Macclesfield, United Kingdom : Dove Medical Press Ltd.. - 1179-1349. ; 12, s. 1433-1442
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Aim: To improve consistency between register studies in Sweden and ensure valid comparisons of possible changes in alcohol-related disorders and diseases (ARDDs) over time, we propose a definition of ARDDs. Based on this definition, we examined Sweden’s incidence rates of ARDDs from 1970 to 2018 in non-primary healthcare settings (inpatient and outpatient). Methods: Swedish Society of Epidemiology members were invited to give feedback on the International Classification of Disease (ICD) codes with a potential link to alcohol use. We then calculated age-standardised and age-specific incidence of ARDDs over time according to the National Patient Register, and the lifetime prevalence of ARDDs diagnosed in adults alive in Sweden on Dec 31, 2018. Results: Sweden’s estimated incidence of ARDDs increased substantially after introducing the new ICD-9 codes in 1987. In the past 10 years (2009–2018), the incidence of ARDDs has been stable (males: 110/100,000 person-years, females: 49/100,000 person-years). Requiring at least two ICD records for diagnosed ARDDs led to a somewhat lower incidence of ARDDs (males: 71 per 100,000 person-years, females: 29 per 100,000 person-years). In Sweden, the lifetime prevalence of diagnosed ARDDs in adults on Dec 31, 2018, was 1.9% (95% CI=1.9–1.9). Conclusion: In this nationwide study, we found an incidence of ARDDs of 50–100/ 100,000 person-years. In 2018, 1 in 52 adults in Sweden had been diagnosed with ARDDs in the National Patient Register.
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| 5. |
- Hagström, Hannes, et al.
(author)
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Ability of Noninvasive Scoring Systems to Identify Individuals in the Population at Risk for Severe Liver Disease
- 2020
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In: Gastroenterology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0016-5085 .- 1528-0012. ; 158:1, s. 200-214
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND & AIMS: Noninvasive scoring systems are used to identify persons with advanced liver fibrosis. We investigated the ability of scoring systems to identify individuals in the general population at risk for future liver-related events. METHODS: We collected data from the Swedish Apolipoprotein Mortality Risk cohort on persons 35 to 79 years old who had blood samples collected from 1985 through 1996. We collected APRI (n = 127,302), BARD (n = 75,303), FIB-4 (n = 126,941), Forns (n = 122,419), and the nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) fibrosis scores (NFS, n = 13,160). We ascertained incident cases of cirrhosis or complications by linking Swedish health data registers. Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for severe liver disease at 5, 10, and a maximum follow-up time of 27 years. The predictive ability of the scores was evaluated using area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve and C-statistics analyses. Our specific aims were to investigate the predictive capabilities of scoring systems for fatal and nonfatal liver disease, determine which scoring system has the highest level of accuracy, and investigate the predictive abilities of the scoring systems in persons with a higher probability of NAFLD at baseline. RESULTS: A similar proportion of individuals evaluated by each scoring system developed cirrhosis or complications thereof (1.0%-1.4%). The incidence of any outcome was increased in intermediate- and high-risk groups compared with low-risk groups, with HRs at 10 years in the high-risk group ranging from 1.67 for the BARD score to 45.9 for the APRI score. The predictive abilities of all scoring systems decreased with time and were higher in men. All scoring systems were more accurate in persons with risk factors for NAFLD at baseline, with AUROCs reaching 0.83. CONCLUSIONS: Higher scores from noninvasive scoring systems to evaluate fibrosis are associated with an increased risk of cirrhosis in a general population, but their predictive ability is modest. Performance was better when patients were followed for shorter time periods and in persons with a higher risk of NAFLD, with AUROC values reaching 0.83. New scoring systems are needed to evaluate risk of fibrosis in the general population and in primary care.
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| 6. |
- Hagström, Hannes, et al.
(author)
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Cardiovascular Outcomes in Patients With Biopsy-proven Alcohol-related Liver Disease
- 2023
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In: Clinical Gastroenterology and Hepatology. - : Elsevier. - 1542-3565 .- 1542-7714. ; 21:7, s. 1841-1853.e12
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND & AIMS: Patients with alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) frequently have risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD), but their long-term risk of CVD is not well-known, especially considering the competing risk of death from liver-related causes. It is further unknown if any excess risk varies across histological subgroups.METHODS: We investigated the risk of CVD outcomes in 3488 persons with ALD and an available liver biopsy in Sweden between 1969 and 2016, compared with a matched reference population (n = 15,461). Administrative coding from national diagnostic and histopathology registers were used to define exposures and outcomes. Competing risk regression, taking non-CVD death into account and adjusting for potential confounders, was used to estimate subdistribution hazard ratios for incident CVD up until Dec 31, 2019.RESULTS: At baseline, patients with ALD had a median age of 58 years, 64% were men, and 2039 (58%) had cirrhosis on histology. The incidence rate of CVD was 35.6 per 1000 person-years in ALD compared with 19.0 per 1000 person-years in reference individuals. ALD was associated with a 2-fold increased short-term risk for CVD compared with matched reference individuals (subdistribution hazard ratio during the first year after diagnosis, 2.29; 95% confidence interval, 1.79-2.95), but this risk decreased with time. Incidence rates of CVD were comparable across histological subgroups (ranging from 27.4 CVD cases per 1000 person-years in those with normal histology to 39.2 cases per 1000 person-years in those with cirrhosis).CONCLUSIONS: Persons with biopsy-proven ALD have increased rates of CVD across histological subgroups compared with matched reference individuals, particularly just after ALD diagnosis. Active surveillance of modifiable CVD risk factors should be considered by clinicians treating patients with ALD.
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| 7. |
- Hagström, Hannes, et al.
(author)
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Health Care Costs of Patients With Biopsy-Confirmed Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease Are Nearly Twice Those of Matched Controls
- 2020
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In: Clinical Gastroenterology and Hepatology. - : ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC. - 1542-3565 .- 1542-7714. ; 18:7, s. 1592-
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND & AIMS: Data on healthcare resource use and costs associated with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) in clinical practice are lacking. We compared real-life healthcare costs of patients with NAFLD to matched controls. METHODS: We performed a retrospective study of 646 patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD in Sweden from 1971 through 2009. Each patient was matched for age, sex, and county of residence with 10 persons from the general population (controls). We retrieved all healthcare contacts through Dec 31, 2014 from national registers. Unit costs were assigned to arrive at a total healthcare cost (in USD [$]) per study subject. RESULTS: During a mean follow-up of 19.9 years, we recorded a mean of 0.27 hospitalizations per year for patients with NAFLD vs 0.16 for controls (P <.001). This corresponded to an incremental cost of $635 per year for patients with NAFLD. Patients with NAFLD had a higher mean use of outpatient care visits: 1.46 contacts per year compared with 0.86 per year in controls, corresponding to $255 in additional costs (P <.001). Total costs incurred by patients with stage 3-4 fibrosis were higher than by patients with fibrosis stage 0-2 (mean annual costs, $4397 vs $629). Cumulative costs were higher for all stages of fibrosis compared to controls. CONCLUSIONS: Healthcare costs are nearly twice as high in patients with NAFLD than in matched controls. This is mostly attributable to higher costs for hospitalizations, but also to more outpatient visits. Patients with advanced fibrosis had the highest costs.
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| 8. |
- Hagström, Hannes, et al.
(author)
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Improved prediction of 10-year risk of severe liver disease in the general population using commonly available biomarkers
- 2023
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In: Alimentary Pharmacology and Therapeutics. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 0269-2813 .- 1365-2036. ; 57:4, s. 418-425
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Estimating the risk for cirrhosis in the general population is complex. Existing prediction tools are in general unsatisfactory.Aims: To explore if using commonly available biomarkers can improve the commonly used FIB-4 score in the identification of subgroups at risk of cirrhosis.Methods: We used laboratory and clinical data on 126,925 individuals aged 35–79 years in Stockholm, Sweden, undergoing health examinations from 1985 to 1996. We used Swedish nationwide registries to ascertain 10-year cumulative incidence of severe liver disease, a composite of diagnoses corresponding to cirrhosis and its complications. We considered combinations of biomarkers associated with severe liver disease to identify subgroups with different risk profiles.Results: During an average follow-up of 9.3 years, we ascertained 630 incident cases of severe liver disease (0.5%). Age, the FIB-4 score, diabetes or impaired glucose and gamma-glutamyl transferase (gGT) were the most relevant characteristics for classifying risk profiles. Using these factors, we identified 24 groups with a cumulative incidence of severe liver disease at 10 years ranging from 0.2% (age 35–65, low FIB-4, no diabetes or impaired glucose and normal gGT) to 32.1% (age 35–65, high FIB-4, diabetes or impaired glucose and high gGT).Conclusions: Identification of subjects at increased risk of severe liver disease in the general population using the FIB-4 score can be substantially improved by adding age and specific biomarkers commonly available in the primary care setting. These parameters should be considered for inclusion in the development of future risk prediction models.
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| 9. |
- Hagström, Hannes, et al.
(author)
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Maternal obesity increases the risk and severity of NAFLD in offspring
- 2021
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In: Journal of Hepatology. - : Elsevier. - 0168-8278 .- 1600-0641. ; 75:5, s. 1042-1048
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background & Aims: Maternal obesity has been linked to the development of cardiovascular disease and diabetes in offspring, but its relationship to non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is unclear.Methods: Through the nationwide ESPRESSO cohort study we identified all individuals <= 25 years of age in Sweden with biopsy verified NAFLD diagnosed between 1992 and 2016 (n = 165). These were matched by age, sex, and calendar year with up to 5 controls (n = 717). Through linkage with the nationwide Swedish Medical Birth Register (MBR) we retrieved data on maternal early-pregnancy BMI, and possible confounders, in order to calculate adjusted odds ratios (aORs) for NAFLD in offspring.Results: Maternal BMI was associated with NAFLD in offspring: underweight (aOR 0.84; 95% CI 0.14-5.15), normal weight (reference, aOR 1), overweight (aOR 1.51; 0.95-2.40), and obese (aOR 3.26; 1.72-6.19) women. Severe NAFLD (biopsy-proven fibrosis or cirrhosis) was also more common in offspring of overweight (aOR 1.94; 95% CI 0.96-3.90) and obese (aOR 3.67; 95% CI 1.61-8.38) mothers. Associations were similar after adjusting for maternal pre-eclampsia and gestational diabetes. Socio-economic parameters (smoking, mother born outside the Nordic countries and less than 10 years of basic education) were also associated with NAFLD in offspring but did not materially alter the effect size of maternal BMI in a multivariable model.Conclusions: This nationwide study found a strong association between maternal overweight/obesity and future NAFLD in offspring. Adjusting for socio-economic and metabolic parameters in the mother did not affect this finding, suggesting that maternal obesity is an independent risk factor for NAFLD in offspring.Lay summary: In a study of all young persons in Sweden with a liver biopsy consistent with fatty liver, the authors found that compared to matched controls, the risk of fatty liver was much higher in those with obese mothers. This was independent of available confounders and suggests that the high prevalence of obesity in younger persons might lead to a higher risk of fatty liver in their offspring.
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| 10. |
- Hagström, Hannes, et al.
(author)
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Mortality in biopsy-proven alcohol-related liver disease : a population-based nationwide cohort study of 3453 patients
- 2021
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In: Gut. - : BMJ Publishing Group Ltd. - 0017-5749 .- 1468-3288. ; 70:1, s. 170-179
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Objective: Patients with alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) are at increased risk of death, but studies have rarely investigated the significance of histological severity or estimated relative risks compared with a general population. We examined mortality in a nationwide cohort of biopsy-proven ALD.Design: Population-based cohort study in Sweden comparing 3453 individuals with an International Classification of Disease (ICD) code for ALD and a liver biopsy from 1969 to 2017 with 16 535 matched general population individuals. Swedish national registers were used to ascertain overall and disease-specific mortality, starting follow-up at the latest of first ICD diagnosis or liver biopsy plus 3 months. Cox regression adjusted for relevant confounders was used to estimate HRs in ALD and histopathological subgroups.Results: Median age at diagnosis was 58 years, 65% were men and 52% had cirrhosis at baseline. Five-year cumulative mortality was 40.9% in patients with ALD compared with 5.8% in reference individuals. The risk for overall mortality was significantly increased (adjusted HR (aHR)=4.70, 95% CI 4.35 to 5.08). The risk of liver-related death was particularly high (43% of all deaths, aHR=167.6, 95% CI 101.7 to 276.3). Mortality was significantly increased also in patients with ALD without cirrhosis and was highest in the first year after baseline but persisted after >= 10 years of follow-up (aHR=2.74, 95% CI 2.37 to 3.16).Conclusion: Individuals with biopsy-proven ALD have a near fivefold increased risk of death compared with the general population. Individuals with ALD without cirrhosis were also at increased risk of death, reaffirming the need to increase vigilance in the management of these individuals.
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