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- Lind, Lars, et al.
(author)
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Heterogeneous contributions of change in population distribution of body mass index to change in obesity and underweight NCD Risk Factor Collaboration (NCD-RisC)
- 2021
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In: eLife. - : eLife Sciences Publications Ltd. - 2050-084X. ; 10
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- From 1985 to 2016, the prevalence of underweight decreased, and that of obesity and severe obesity increased, in most regions, with significant variation in the magnitude of these changes across regions. We investigated how much change in mean body mass index (BMI) explains changes in the prevalence of underweight, obesity, and severe obesity in different regions using data from 2896 population-based studies with 187 million participants. Changes in the prevalence of underweight and total obesity, and to a lesser extent severe obesity, are largely driven by shifts in the distribution of BMI, with smaller contributions from changes in the shape of the distribution. In East and Southeast Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, the underweight tail of the BMI distribution was left behind as the distribution shifted. There is a need for policies that address all forms of malnutrition by making healthy foods accessible and affordable, while restricting unhealthy foods through fiscal and regulatory restrictions.
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- Mishra, A, et al.
(author)
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Diminishing benefits of urban living for children and adolescents' growth and development
- 2023
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In: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1476-4687 .- 0028-0836. ; 615:7954, s. 874-883
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Optimal growth and development in childhood and adolescence is crucial for lifelong health and well-being1–6. Here we used data from 2,325 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight from 71 million participants, to report the height and body-mass index (BMI) of children and adolescents aged 5–19 years on the basis of rural and urban place of residence in 200 countries and territories from 1990 to 2020. In 1990, children and adolescents residing in cities were taller than their rural counterparts in all but a few high-income countries. By 2020, the urban height advantage became smaller in most countries, and in many high-income western countries it reversed into a small urban-based disadvantage. The exception was for boys in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa and in some countries in Oceania, south Asia and the region of central Asia, Middle East and north Africa. In these countries, successive cohorts of boys from rural places either did not gain height or possibly became shorter, and hence fell further behind their urban peers. The difference between the age-standardized mean BMI of children in urban and rural areas was <1.1 kg m–2 in the vast majority of countries. Within this small range, BMI increased slightly more in cities than in rural areas, except in south Asia, sub-Saharan Africa and some countries in central and eastern Europe. Our results show that in much of the world, the growth and developmental advantages of living in cities have diminished in the twenty-first century, whereas in much of sub-Saharan Africa they have amplified.
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- Blach, S., et al.
(author)
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Global change in hepatitis C virus prevalence and cascade of care between 2015 and 2020: a modelling study
- 2022
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In: Lancet Gastroenterology & Hepatology. - : Elsevier BV. - 2468-1253. ; 7:5, s. 396-415
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background Since the release of the first global hepatitis elimination targets in 2016, and until the COVID-19 pandemic started in early 2020, many countries and territories were making progress toward hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination. This study aims to evaluate HCV burden in 2020, and forecast HCV burden by 2030 given current trends. Methods This analysis includes a literature review, Delphi process, and mathematical modelling to estimate HCV prevalence (viraemic infection, defined as HCV RNA-positive cases) and the cascade of care among people of all ages (age =0 years from birth) for the period between Jan 1, 2015, and Dec 31, 2030. Epidemiological data were collected from published sources and grey literature (including government reports and personal communications) and were validated among country and territory experts. A Markov model was used to forecast disease burden and cascade of care from 1950 to 2050 for countries and territories with data. Model outcomes were extracted from 2015 to 2030 to calculate population-weighted regional averages, which were used for countries or territories without data. Regional and global estimates of HCV prevalence, cascade of care, and disease burden were calculated based on 235 countries and territories. Findings Models were built for 110 countries or territories: 83 were approved by local experts and 27 were based on published data alone. Using data from these models, plus population-weighted regional averages for countries and territories without models (n=125), we estimated a global prevalence of viraemic HCV infection of 0.7% (95% UI 0.7-0.9), corresponding to 56.8 million (95% UI 55.2-67.8) infections, on Jan 1, 2020. This number represents a decrease of 6.8 million viraemic infections from a 2015 (beginning of year) prevalence estimate of 63.6 million (61.8-75.8) infections (0.9% [0.8-1.0] prevalence). By the end of 2020, an estimated 12.9 million (12.5-15.4) people were living with a diagnosed viraemic infection. In 2020, an estimated 641 000 (623 000-765 000) patients initiated treatment. Interpretation At the beginning of 2020, there were an estimated 56.8 million viraemic HCV infections globally. Although this number represents a decrease from 2015, our forecasts suggest we are not currently on track to achieve global elimination targets by 2030. As countries recover from COVID-19, these findings can help refocus efforts aimed at HCV elimination. Copyright (C) 2022 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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6. |
- Taddei, C, et al.
(author)
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Repositioning of the global epicentre of non-optimal cholesterol
- 2020
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In: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1476-4687 .- 0028-0836. ; 582:7810, s. 73-
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- High blood cholesterol is typically considered a feature of wealthy western countries1,2. However, dietary and behavioural determinants of blood cholesterol are changing rapidly throughout the world3 and countries are using lipid-lowering medications at varying rates. These changes can have distinct effects on the levels of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and non-HDL cholesterol, which have different effects on human health4,5. However, the trends of HDL and non-HDL cholesterol levels over time have not been previously reported in a global analysis. Here we pooled 1,127 population-based studies that measured blood lipids in 102.6 million individuals aged 18 years and older to estimate trends from 1980 to 2018 in mean total, non-HDL and HDL cholesterol levels for 200 countries. Globally, there was little change in total or non-HDL cholesterol from 1980 to 2018. This was a net effect of increases in low- and middle-income countries, especially in east and southeast Asia, and decreases in high-income western countries, especially those in northwestern Europe, and in central and eastern Europe. As a result, countries with the highest level of non-HDL cholesterol—which is a marker of cardiovascular risk—changed from those in western Europe such as Belgium, Finland, Greenland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and Malta in 1980 to those in Asia and the Pacific, such as Tokelau, Malaysia, The Philippines and Thailand. In 2017, high non-HDL cholesterol was responsible for an estimated 3.9 million (95% credible interval 3.7 million–4.2 million) worldwide deaths, half of which occurred in east, southeast and south Asia. The global repositioning of lipid-related risk, with non-optimal cholesterol shifting from a distinct feature of high-income countries in northwestern Europe, north America and Australasia to one that affects countries in east and southeast Asia and Oceania should motivate the use of population-based policies and personal interventions to improve nutrition and enhance access to treatment throughout the world.
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- Burrascano, S., et al.
(author)
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Where are we now with European forest multi-taxon biodiversity and where can we head to?
- 2023
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In: Biological Conservation. - 0006-3207. ; 284
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The European biodiversity and forest strategies rely on forest sustainable management (SFM) to conserve forest biodiversity. However, current sustainability assessments hardly account for direct biodiversity indicators. We focused on forest multi-taxon biodiversity to: i) gather and map the existing information; ii) identify knowledge and research gaps; iii) discuss its research potential. We established a research network to fit data on species, standing trees, lying deadwood and sampling unit description from 34 local datasets across 3591 sampling units. A total of 8724 species were represented, with the share of common and rare species varying across taxonomic classes: some included many species with several rare ones (e.g., Insecta); others (e.g., Bryopsida) were repre-sented by few common species. Tree-related structural attributes were sampled in a subset of sampling units (2889; 2356; 2309 and 1388 respectively for diameter, height, deadwood and microhabitats). Overall, multi-taxon studies are biased towards mature forests and may underrepresent the species related to other develop-mental phases. European forest compositional categories were all represented, but beech forests were over-represented as compared to thermophilous and boreal forests. Most sampling units (94%) were referred to a habitat type of conservation concern. Existing information may support European conservation and SFM stra-tegies in: (i) methodological harmonization and coordinated monitoring; (ii) definition and testing of SFM in-dicators and thresholds; (iii) data-driven assessment of the effects of environmental and management drivers on multi-taxon forest biological and functional diversity, (iv) multi-scale forest monitoring integrating in-situ and remotely sensed information.
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- Vigan, A., et al.
(author)
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The SPHERE infrared survey for exoplanets (SHINE) : III. The demographics of young giant exoplanets below 300 au with SPHERE
- 2021
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In: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 651
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The SpHere INfrared Exoplanet (SHINE) project is a 500-star survey performed with SPHERE on the Very Large Telescope for the purpose of directly detecting new substellar companions and understanding their formation and early evolution. Here we present an initial statistical analysis for a subsample of 150 stars spanning spectral types from B to M that are representative of the full SHINE sample. Our goal is to constrain the frequency of substellar companions with masses between 1 and 75 MJup and semimajor axes between 5 and 300 au. For this purpose, we adopt detection limits as a function of angular separation from the survey data for all stars converted into mass and projected orbital separation using the BEX-COND-hot evolutionary tracks and known distance to each system. Based on the results obtained for each star and on the 13 detections in the sample, we use a Markov chain Monte Carlo tool to compare our observations to two different types of models. The first is a parametric model based on observational constraints, and the second type are numerical models that combine advanced core accretion and gravitational instability planet population synthesis. Using the parametric model, we show that the frequencies of systems with at least one substellar companion are 23.0−9.7+13.5, 5.8−2.8+4.7, and 12.6−7.1+12.9% for BA, FGK, and M stars, respectively. We also demonstrate that a planet-like formation pathway probably dominates the mass range from 1–75 MJup for companions around BA stars, while for M dwarfs, brown dwarf binaries dominate detections. In contrast, a combination of binary star-like and planet-like formation is required to best fit the observations for FGK stars. Using our population model and restricting our sample to FGK stars, we derive a frequency of 5.7−2.8+3.8%, consistent with predictions from the parametric model. More generally, the frequency values that we derive are in excellent agreement with values obtained in previous studies.
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10. |
- Langlois, M., et al.
(author)
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The SPHERE infrared survey for exoplanets (SHINE) : II. Observations, data reduction and analysis, detection performances, and initial results
- 2021
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In: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 651
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Context. In recent decades, direct imaging has confirmed the existence of substellar companions (exoplanets or brown dwarfs) on wide orbits (>10 au) around their host stars. In striving to understand their formation and evolution mechanisms, in 2015 we initiated the SPHERE infrared survey for exoplanets (SHINE), a systematic direct imaging survey of young, nearby stars that is targeted at exploring their demographics.Aims. We aim to detect and characterize the population of giant planets and brown dwarfs beyond the snow line around young, nearby stars. Combined with the survey completeness, our observations offer the opportunity to constrain the statistical properties (occurrence, mass and orbital distributions, dependency on the stellar mass) of these young giant planets.Methods. In this study, we present the observing and data analysis strategy, the ranking process of the detected candidates, and the survey performances for a subsample of 150 stars that are representative of the full SHINE sample. Observations were conducted in a homogeneous way between February 2015 and February 2017 with the dedicated ground-based VLT/SPHERE instrument equipped with the IFS integral field spectrograph and the IRDIS dual-band imager, covering a spectral range between 0.9 and 2.3 μm. We used coronographic, angular, and spectral differential imaging techniques to achieve the best detection performances for this study, down to the planetary mass regime.Results. We processed, in a uniform manner, more than 300 SHINE observations and datasets to assess the survey typical sensitivity as a function of the host star and of the observing conditions. The median detection performance reached 5σ-contrasts of 13 mag at 200 mas and 14.2 mag at 800 mas with the IFS (YJ and YJH bands), and of 11.8 mag at 200 mas, 13.1 mag at 800 mas, and 15.8 mag at 3 as with IRDIS in H band, delivering one of the deepest sensitivity surveys thus far for young, nearby stars. A total of sixteen substellar companions were imaged in this first part of SHINE: seven brown dwarf companions and ten planetary-mass companions.These include two new discoveries, HIP 65426 b and HIP 64892 B, but not the planets around PDS70 that had not been originally selected for the SHINE core sample. A total of 1483 candidates were detected, mainly in the large field of view that characterizes IRDIS. The color-magnitude diagrams, low-resolution spectrum (when available with IFS), and follow-up observations enabled us to identify the nature (background contaminant or comoving companion) of about 86% of our subsample. The remaining cases are often connected to crowded-field follow-up observations that were missing. Finally, even though SHINE was not initially designed for disk searches, we imaged twelve circumstellar disks, including three new detections around the HIP 73145, HIP 86598, and HD 106906 systems.Conclusions. Nowadays, direct imaging provides a unique opportunity to probe the outer part of exoplanetary systems beyond 10 au to explore planetary architectures, as highlighted by the discoveries of: one new exoplanet, one new brown dwarf companion, and three new debris disks during this early phase of SHINE. It also offers the opportunity to explore and revisit the physical and orbital properties of these young, giant planets and brown dwarf companions (relative position, photometry, and low-resolution spectrum in near-infrared, predicted masses, and contrast in order to search for additional companions). Finally, these results highlight the importance of finalizing the SHINE systematic observation of about 500 young, nearby stars for a full exploration of their outer part to explore the demographics of young giant planets beyond 10 au and to identify the most interesting systems for the next generation of high-contrast imagers on very large and extremely large telescopes.
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