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- Abe, O, et al.
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Effects of chemotherapy and hormonal therapy for early breast cancer on recurrence and 15-year survival: an overview of the randomised trials
- 2005
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In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X. ; 365:9472, s. 1687-1717
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background Quinquennial overviews (1985-2000) of the randomised trials in early breast cancer have assessed the 5-year and 10-year effects of various systemic adjuvant therapies on breast cancer recurrence and survival. Here, we report the 10-year and 15-year effects. Methods Collaborative meta-analyses were undertaken of 194 unconfounded randomised trials of adjuvant chemotherapy or hormonal therapy that began by 1995. Many trials involved CMF (cyclophosphamide, methotrexate, fluorouracil), anthracycline-based combinations such as FAC (fluorouracil, doxombicin, cyclophosphamide) or FEC (fluorouracil, epirubicin, cyclophosphamide), tamoxifen, or ovarian suppression: none involved taxanes, trastuzumab, raloxifene, or modem aromatase inhibitors. Findings Allocation to about 6 months of anthracycline-based polychemotherapy (eg, with FAC or FEC) reduces the annual breast cancer death rate by about 38% (SE 5) for women younger than 50 years of age when diagnosed and by about 20% (SE 4) for those of age 50-69 years when diagnosed, largely irrespective of the use of tamoxifen and of oestrogen receptor (ER) status, nodal status, or other tumour characteristics. Such regimens are significantly (2p=0 . 0001 for recurrence, 2p<0 . 00001 for breast cancer mortality) more effective than CMF chemotherapy. Few women of age 70 years or older entered these chemotherapy trials. For ER-positive disease only, allocation to about 5 years of adjuvant tamoxifen reduces the annual breast cancer death rate by 31% (SE 3), largely irrespective of the use of chemotherapy and of age (<50, 50-69, &GE; 70 years), progesterone receptor status, or other tumour characteristics. 5 years is significantly (2p<0 . 00001 for recurrence, 2p=0 . 01 for breast cancer mortality) more effective than just 1-2 years of tamoxifen. For ER-positive tumours, the annual breast cancer mortality rates are similar during years 0-4 and 5-14, as are the proportional reductions in them by 5 years of tamoxifen, so the cumulative reduction in mortality is more than twice as big at 15 years as at 5 years after diagnosis. These results combine six meta-analyses: anthracycline-based versus no chemotherapy (8000 women); CMF-based versus no chemotherapy (14 000); anthracycline-based versus CMF-based chemotherapy (14 000); about 5 years of tamoxifen versus none (15 000); about 1-2 years of tamoxifen versus none (33 000); and about 5 years versus 1-2 years of tamoxifen (18 000). Finally, allocation to ovarian ablation or suppression (8000 women) also significantly reduces breast cancer mortality, but appears to do so only in the absence of other systemic treatments. For middle-aged women with ER-positive disease (the commonest type of breast cancer), the breast cancer mortality rate throughout the next 15 years would be approximately halved by 6 months of anthracycline-based chemotherapy (with a combination such as FAC or FEC) followed by 5 years of adjuvant tamoxifen. For, if mortality reductions of 38% (age <50 years) and 20% (age 50-69 years) from such chemotherapy were followed by a further reduction of 31% from tamoxifen in the risks that remain, the final mortality reductions would be 57% and 45%, respectively (and, the trial results could well have been somewhat stronger if there had been full compliance with the allocated treatments). Overall survival would be comparably improved, since these treatments have relatively small effects on mortality from the aggregate of all other causes. Interpretation Some of the widely practicable adjuvant drug treatments that were being tested in the 1980s, which substantially reduced 5-year recurrence rates (but had somewhat less effect on 5-year mortality rates), also substantially reduce 15-year mortality rates. Further improvements in long-term survival could well be available from newer drugs, or better use of older drugs.
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- Emerging Risk Factors, Collaboration, et al.
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The Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration: analysis of individual data on lipid, inflammatory and other markers in over 1.1 million participants in 104 prospective studies of cardiovascular diseases
- 2007
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In: Eur J Epidemiol. - 0393-2990. ; 22:12, s. 839-69
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Many long-term prospective studies have reported on associations of cardiovascular diseases with circulating lipid markers and/or inflammatory markers. Studies have not, however, generally been designed to provide reliable estimates under different circumstances and to correct for within-person variability. The Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration has established a central database on over 1.1 million participants from 104 prospective population-based studies, in which subsets have information on lipid and inflammatory markers, other characteristics, as well as major cardiovascular morbidity and cause-specific mortality. Information on repeat measurements on relevant characteristics has been collected in approximately 340,000 participants to enable estimation of and correction for within-person variability. Re-analysis of individual data will yield up to approximately 69,000 incident fatal or nonfatal first ever major cardiovascular outcomes recorded during about 11.7 million person years at risk. The primary analyses will involve age-specific regression models in people without known baseline cardiovascular disease in relation to fatal or nonfatal first ever coronary heart disease outcomes. This initiative will characterize more precisely and in greater detail than has previously been possible the shape and strength of the age- and sex-specific associations of several lipid and inflammatory markers with incident coronary heart disease outcomes (and, secondarily, with other incident cardiovascular outcomes) under a wide range of circumstances. It will, therefore, help to determine to what extent such associations are independent from possible confounding factors and to what extent such markers (separately and in combination) provide incremental predictive value.
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- Benner, J. S., et al.
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A novel programme to evaluate and communicate 10-year risk of CHD reduces predicted risk and improves patients' modifiable risk factor profile
- 2008
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In: International Journal of Clinical Practice. - : Hindawi Limited. - 1742-1241 .- 1368-5031. ; 62:10, s. 1484-1498
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Aims: We assessed whether a novel programme to evaluate/communicate predicted coronary heart disease (CHD) risk could lower patients' predicted Framingham CHD risk vs. usual care. Methods: The Risk Evaluation and Communication Health Outcomes and Utilization Trial was a prospective, controlled, cluster-randomised trial in nine European countries, among patients at moderate cardiovascular risk. Following baseline assessments, physicians in the intervention group calculated patients' predicted CHD risk and were instructed to advise patients according to a risk evaluation/communication programme. Usual care physicians did not calculate patients' risk and provided usual care only. The primary end-point was Framingham 10-year CHD risk at 6 months with intervention vs. usual care. Results: Of 1103 patients across 100 sites, 524 patients receiving intervention, and 461 receiving usual care, were analysed for efficacy. After 6 months, mean predicted risks were 12.5% with intervention, and 13.7% with usual care [odds ratio = 0.896; p = 0.001, adjusted for risk at baseline (17.2% intervention; 16.9% usual care) and other covariates]. The proportion of patients achieving both blood pressure and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol targets was significantly higher with intervention (25.4%) than usual care (14.1%; p < 0.001), and 29.3% of smokers in the intervention group quit smoking vs. 21.4% of those receiving usual care (p = 0.04). Conclusions: A physician-implemented CHD risk evaluation/communication programme improved patients' modifiable risk factor profile, and lowered predicted CHD risk compared with usual care. By combining this strategy with more intensive treatment to reduce residual modifiable risk, we believe that substantial improvements in cardiovascular disease prevention could be achieved in clinical practice.
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- Cullinane, CA, et al.
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Effect of pregnancy as a risk factor for breast cancer in BRCA1/BRCA2 mutation carriers
- 2005
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In: International Journal of Cancer. - : Wiley. - 0020-7136 .- 1097-0215. ; 117:6, s. 988-991
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Early age at first birth and multiparity have been associated with a decrease in the risk of breast cancer in women in the general population. We examined whether this relationship is also present in women at high risk of breast cancer due to the presence of a mutation in either of the 2 breast cancer susceptibility genes, BRCA1 or BRCA2. We performed a matched case-control study of 1,260 pairs of women with known BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutations, recruited from North America, Europe and Israel. Women who had been diagnosed with breast cancer were matched with unaffected control subjects for year of birth, country of residence, and mutation (BRCA1 or BRCA2). Study subjects completed a questionnaire detailing their reproductive histories. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were derived by conditional logistic regression. Among BRCA1 carriers, parity per se was not associated with the risk of breast cancer (OR for parous vs. nulliparous = 0.94; 95% CI = 0.75-1.19; p = 0.62). However, women with a BRCA1 mutation and 4 or more children had a 38% decrease in breast cancer risk compared to nulliparous women (OR = 0.62; 95% CI = 0.41-0.94). In contrast, among BRCA2 carriers, increasing parity was associated with an increased risk of breast cancer; women with 2 or more children were at approximately 1.5 times the risk of breast cancer as nulliparous women (OR = 1.53; 95% CI = 1.01-2.32; p = 0.05). Among women with BRCA2 mutations and who were younger than age 50, the (adjusted) risk of breast cancer increased by 17% with each additional birth (OR = 1.17; 95% CI = 1.01-1.36; p = 0.03). There was no significant increase in the risk of breast cancer among BRCA2 carriers older than 50 (OR for each additional birth 0.97; 95% CI = 0.58-1.53; p = 0.92). In the 2-year period following a birth, the risk of breast cancer in a BRCA2 carrier was increased by 70% compared to nulliparous controls (OR = 1.70; 95% CI = 0.97-3.0). There was a much smaller increase in breast cancer risk among BRCA2 carriers whose last birth was 5 or more years in the past (OR = 1.24; 95% CI = 0.79-1.95). A modest reduction in risk of breast cancer was observed among BRCA1 carriers with 4 or more births. Among BRCA2 carriers, increasing parity was associated with a significant increase in the risk of breast cancer before age 50 and this increase was greatest in the 2-year period following a pregnancy.
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