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- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national levels of neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality during 1990-2013 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2014
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In: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 384:9947, s. 957-979
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Remarkable financial and political efforts have been focused on the reduction of child mortality during the past few decades. Timely measurements of levels and trends in under-5 mortality are important to assess progress towards the Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) target of reduction of child mortality by two thirds from 1990 to 2015, and to identify models of success.METHODS: We generated updated estimates of child mortality in early neonatal (age 0-6 days), late neonatal (7-28 days), postneonatal (29-364 days), childhood (1-4 years), and under-5 (0-4 years) age groups for 188 countries from 1970 to 2013, with more than 29 000 survey, census, vital registration, and sample registration datapoints. We used Gaussian process regression with adjustments for bias and non-sampling error to synthesise the data for under-5 mortality for each country, and a separate model to estimate mortality for more detailed age groups. We used explanatory mixed effects regression models to assess the association between under-5 mortality and income per person, maternal education, HIV child death rates, secular shifts, and other factors. To quantify the contribution of these different factors and birth numbers to the change in numbers of deaths in under-5 age groups from 1990 to 2013, we used Shapley decomposition. We used estimated rates of change between 2000 and 2013 to construct under-5 mortality rate scenarios out to 2030.FINDINGS: We estimated that 6·3 million (95% UI 6·0-6·6) children under-5 died in 2013, a 64% reduction from 17·6 million (17·1-18·1) in 1970. In 2013, child mortality rates ranged from 152·5 per 1000 livebirths (130·6-177·4) in Guinea-Bissau to 2·3 (1·8-2·9) per 1000 in Singapore. The annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2013 ranged from -6·8% to 0·1%. 99 of 188 countries, including 43 of 48 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, had faster decreases in child mortality during 2000-13 than during 1990-2000. In 2013, neonatal deaths accounted for 41·6% of under-5 deaths compared with 37·4% in 1990. Compared with 1990, in 2013, rising numbers of births, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, led to 1·4 million more child deaths, and rising income per person and maternal education led to 0·9 million and 2·2 million fewer deaths, respectively. Changes in secular trends led to 4·2 million fewer deaths. Unexplained factors accounted for only -1% of the change in child deaths. In 30 developing countries, decreases since 2000 have been faster than predicted attributable to income, education, and secular shift alone.INTERPRETATION: Only 27 developing countries are expected to achieve MDG 4. Decreases since 2000 in under-5 mortality rates are accelerating in many developing countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. The Millennium Declaration and increased development assistance for health might have been a factor in faster decreases in some developing countries. Without further accelerated progress, many countries in west and central Africa will still have high levels of under-5 mortality in 2030.
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- Fuks, Kateryna B., et al.
(author)
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Arterial blood pressure and long-term exposure to traffic-related air pollution : an analysis in the European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects (ESCAPE)
- 2014
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In: Journal of Environmental Health Perspectives. - : National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (NIEHS). - 0091-6765 .- 1552-9924. ; 122:9, s. 896-905
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Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Long-term exposure to air pollution is hypothesized to elevate arterial blood pressure (BP). The existing evidence is scarce and country-specific. OBJECTIVES: We investigated the cross-sectional association of long-term traffic-related air pollution with BP and prevalent hypertension in European populations. METHODS: Fifteen population-based cohorts, participating in the European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects (ESCAPE), were analysed. Residential exposure to particulate matter and nitrogen oxides was modelled with land use regression using a uniform protocol. Traffic exposure was assessed with traffic indicator variables. We analysed systolic and diastolic BP in participants medicated and non-medicated with BP lowering medication (BPLM) separately, adjusting for personal and area-level risk factors and environmental noise. Prevalent hypertension was defined as ≥ 140 mmHg systolic, or ≥ 90 mmHg diastolic BP, or intake of BPLM. We combined cohort-specific results using random-effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: In the main meta-analysis of 113,926 participants, traffic load on major roads within 100 m of the residence was associated with increased systolic and diastolic BP in non-medicated participants (0.35 mmHg [95% CI: 0.02-0.68] and 0.22 mmHg [95% CI: 0.04-0.40] per 4,000,000 vehicles × m/day, respectively). The estimated odds ratio for prevalent hypertension was 1.05 [95% CI: 0.99-1.11] per 4,000,000 vehicles × m/day. Modelled air pollutants and BP were not clearly associated. CONCLUSIONS: In this first comprehensive meta-analysis of European population-based cohorts we observed a weak positive association of high residential traffic exposure with BP in non-medicated participants, and an elevated OR for prevalent hypertension. The relationship of modelled air pollutants with BP was inconsistent.
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