1. |
- Menkveld, Albert J., et al.
(author)
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Nonstandard Errors
- 2024
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In: JOURNAL OF FINANCE. - : Wiley-Blackwell. - 0022-1082 .- 1540-6261. ; 79:3, s. 2339-2390
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- In statistics, samples are drawn from a population in a data-generating process (DGP). Standard errors measure the uncertainty in estimates of population parameters. In science, evidence is generated to test hypotheses in an evidence-generating process (EGP). We claim that EGP variation across researchers adds uncertainty-nonstandard errors (NSEs). We study NSEs by letting 164 teams test the same hypotheses on the same data. NSEs turn out to be sizable, but smaller for more reproducible or higher rated research. Adding peer-review stages reduces NSEs. We further find that this type of uncertainty is underestimated by participants.
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2. |
- Berndt, Sonja, I, et al.
(author)
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Distinct germline genetic susceptibility profiles identified for common non-Hodgkin lymphoma subtypes
- 2022
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In: Leukemia. - : Springer Nature. - 0887-6924 .- 1476-5551. ; 36:12, s. 2835-2844
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Lymphoma risk is elevated for relatives with common non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) subtypes, suggesting shared genetic susceptibility across subtypes. To evaluate the extent of mutual heritability among NHL subtypes and discover novel loci shared among subtypes, we analyzed data from eight genome-wide association studies within the InterLymph Consortium, including 10,629 cases and 9505 controls. We utilized Association analysis based on SubSETs (ASSET) to discover loci for subsets of NHL subtypes and evaluated shared heritability across the genome using Genome-wide Complex Trait Analysis (GCTA) and polygenic risk scores. We discovered 17 genome-wide significant loci (P < 5 × 10−8) for subsets of NHL subtypes, including a novel locus at 10q23.33 (HHEX) (P = 3.27 × 10−9). Most subset associations were driven primarily by only one subtype. Genome-wide genetic correlations between pairs of subtypes varied broadly from 0.20 to 0.86, suggesting substantial heterogeneity in the extent of shared heritability among subtypes. Polygenic risk score analyses of established loci for different lymphoid malignancies identified strong associations with some NHL subtypes (P < 5 × 10−8), but weak or null associations with others. Although our analyses suggest partially shared heritability and biological pathways, they reveal substantial heterogeneity among NHL subtypes with each having its own distinct germline genetic architecture.
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3. |
- Bott, Lukas Thomas, et al.
(author)
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Coulomb dissociation of O-16 into He-4 and C-12
- 2023
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In: NUCLEAR PHYSICS IN ASTROPHYSICS - X, NPA-X 2022. - : EDP Sciences. - 2100-014X. ; 279
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Conference paper (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We measured the Coulomb dissociation of O-16 into He-4 and C-12 within the FAIR Phase-0 program at GSI Helmholtzzentrum fur Schwerionenforschung Darmstadt, Germany. From this we will extract the photon dissociation cross section O-16(alpha,gamma)C-12, which is the time reversed reaction to C-12(alpha,gamma)O-16. With this indirect method, we aim to improve on the accuracy of the experimental data at lower energies than measured so far. The expected low cross section for the Coulomb dissociation reaction and close magnetic rigidity of beam and fragments demand a high precision measurement. Hence, new detector systems were built and radical changes to the (RB)-B-3 setup were necessary to cope with the high-intensity O-16 beam. All tracking detectors were designed to let the unreacted O-16 ions pass, while detecting the C-12 and He-4.
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4. |
- Frieler, Katja, et al.
(author)
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Scenario setup and forcing data for impact model evaluation and impact attribution within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a)
- 2024
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In: Geoscientific Model Development. - : Copernicus Publications. - 1991-959X .- 1991-9603. ; 17:1, s. 1-51
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This paper describes the rationale and the protocol of the first component of the third simulation round of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a, http://www.isimip.org, last access: 2 November 2023) and the associated set of climate-related and direct human forcing data (CRF and DHF, respectively). The observation-based climate-related forcings for the first time include high-resolution observational climate forcings derived by orographic downscaling, monthly to hourly coastal water levels, and wind fields associated with historical tropical cyclones. The DHFs include land use patterns, population densities, information about water and agricultural management, and fishing intensities. The ISIMIP3a impact model simulations driven by these observation-based climate-related and direct human forcings are designed to test to what degree the impact models can explain observed changes in natural and human systems. In a second set of ISIMIP3a experiments the participating impact models are forced by the same DHFs but a counterfactual set of atmospheric forcings and coastal water levels where observed trends have been removed. These experiments are designed to allow for the attribution of observed changes in natural, human, and managed systems to climate change, rising CH4 and CO2 concentrations, and sea level rise according to the definition of the Working Group II contribution to the IPCC AR6.
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5. |
- Kepp, Kasper P., et al.
(author)
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Panel stacking is a threat to consensus statement validity
- 2024
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In: Journal of Clinical Epidemiology. - : Elsevier. - 0895-4356 .- 1878-5921. ; 173
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Consensus statements can be very influential in medicine and public health. Some of these statements use systematic evidence synthesis but others fail on this front. Many consensus statements use panels of experts to deduce perceived consensus through Delphi processes. We argue that stacking of panel members toward one particular position or narrative is a major threat, especially in absence of systematic evidence review. Stacking may involve financial conflicts of interest, but nonfinancial conflicts of strong advocacy can also cause major bias. Given their emerging importance, we describe here how such consensus statements may be misleading, by analyzing in depth a recent high-impact Delphi consensus statement on COVID-19 recommendations as a case example. We demonstrate that many of the selected panel members and at least 35% of the core panel members had advocated toward COVID-19 elimination (Zero-COVID) during the pandemic and were leading members of aggressive advocacy groups. These advocacy conflicts were not declared in the Delphi consensus publication, with rare exceptions. Therefore, we propose that consensus statements should always require rigorous evidence synthesis and maximal transparency on potential biases toward advocacy or lobbyist groups to be valid. While advocacy can have many important functions, its biased impact on consensus panels should be carefully avoided.
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6. |
- Sarmiento Pico, Luis, et al.
(author)
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Elucidating the nature of the proton radioactivity and branching ratio on the first proton emitter discovered 53mCo
- 2023
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In: Nature Communications. - 2041-1723. ; 14
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The observation of a weak proton-emission branch in the decay of the 3174keV 53mCo isomeric state marked the discovery of proton radioactivity in atomic nuclei in 1970. Here we show, based on the partial half-lives and the decay energies of the possible proton-emission branches, that the exceptionally high angular momentum barriers, lp = 9 and lp = 7, play a key role in hindering the proton radioactivity from 53mCo, making them very challenging to observe and calculate. Indeed, experiments had to wait decades for significant advances in accelerator facilities and multi-faceted state-of-the-art decay stations to gain full access to all observables. Combining data taken with the TASISpec decay station at the Accelerator Laboratory of the University of Jyväskylä, Finland, and the ACTAR TPC device on LISE3 at GANIL, France, we measured their branching ratios as bp1 = 1.3(1)% and bp2 = 0.025(4)%. These results were compared to cutting-edge shell-model and barrier penetration calculations. This description reproduces the order of magnitude of the branching ratios and partial half-lives, despite their very small spectroscopic factors.
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7. |
- Weinstock, Joshua S, et al.
(author)
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Aberrant activation of TCL1A promotes stem cell expansion in clonal haematopoiesis.
- 2023
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In: Nature. - 1476-4687. ; 616:7958, s. 755-763
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Mutations in a diverse set of driver genes increase the fitness of haematopoietic stem cells (HSCs), leading to clonal haematopoiesis1. These lesions are precursors for blood cancers2-6, but the basis of their fitness advantage remains largely unknown, partly owing to a paucity of large cohorts in which the clonal expansion rate has been assessed by longitudinal sampling. Here, to circumvent this limitation, we developed a method to infer the expansion rate from data from a single time point. We applied this method to 5,071 people with clonal haematopoiesis. A genome-wide association study revealed that a common inherited polymorphism in the TCL1A promoter was associated with a slower expansion rate in clonal haematopoiesis overall, but the effect varied by driver gene. Those carrying this protective allele exhibited markedly reduced growth rates or prevalence of clones with driver mutations in TET2, ASXL1, SF3B1 and SRSF2, butthis effect was not seen inclones withdriver mutations in DNMT3A. TCL1A was not expressed in normal or DNMT3A-mutated HSCs, but the introduction of mutations in TET2 or ASXL1 led to the expression of TCL1A protein and the expansion of HSCs in vitro. The protective allele restricted TCL1A expression and expansion of mutant HSCs, as did experimentalknockdown of TCL1A expression. Forced expression of TCL1A promoted the expansion of human HSCs in vitro and mouse HSCs in vivo. Our results indicate that the fitness advantage of several commonly mutated driver genes in clonal haematopoiesis may be mediated by TCL1A activation.
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