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- Naghavi, Mohsen, et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2015
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In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 385:9963, s. 117-171
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specifi c all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specifi c causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute diff erences between countries decreased but relative diff erences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative diff erences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specifi c mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.
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| 2. |
- Yubero-Serrano, Elena M, et al.
(author)
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Insulin resistance determines a differential response to changes in dietary fat modification on metabolic syndrome risk factors : the LIPGENE study
- 2015
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In: American Journal of Clinical Nutrition. - : Elsevier BV. - 0002-9165 .- 1938-3207. ; 102:6, s. 1509-1517
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Previous data support the benefits of reducing dietary saturated fatty acids (SFAs) on insulin resistance (IR) and other metabolic risk factors. However, whether the IR status of those suffering from metabolic syndrome (MetS) affects this response is not established.OBJECTIVE: Our objective was to determine whether the degree of IR influences the effect of substituting high-saturated fatty acid (HSFA) diets by isoenergetic alterations in the quality and quantity of dietary fat on MetS risk factors.DESIGN: In this single-blind, parallel, controlled, dietary intervention study, MetS subjects (n = 472) from 8 European countries classified by different IR levels according to homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) were randomly assigned to 4 diets: an HSFA diet; a high-monounsaturated fatty acid (HMUFA) diet; a low-fat, high-complex carbohydrate (LFHCC) diet supplemented with long-chain n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (1.2 g/d); or an LFHCC diet supplemented with placebo for 12 wk (control). Anthropometric, lipid, inflammatory, and IR markers were determined.RESULTS: Insulin-resistant MetS subjects with the highest HOMA-IR improved IR, with reduced insulin and HOMA-IR concentrations after consumption of the HMUFA and LFHCC n-3 diets (P < 0.05). In contrast, subjects with lower HOMA-IR showed reduced body mass index and waist circumference after consumption of the LFHCC control and LFHCC n-3 diets and increased HDL cholesterol concentrations after consumption of the HMUFA and HSFA diets (P < 0.05). MetS subjects with a low to medium HOMA-IR exhibited reduced blood pressure, triglyceride, and LDL cholesterol levels after the LFHCC n-3 diet and increased apolipoprotein A-I concentrations after consumption of the HMUFA and HSFA diets (all P < 0.05).CONCLUSIONS: Insulin-resistant MetS subjects with more metabolic complications responded differently to dietary fat modification, being more susceptible to a health effect from the substitution of SFAs in the HMUFA and LFHCC n-3 diets. Conversely, MetS subjects without IR may be more sensitive to the detrimental effects of HSFA intake. The metabolic phenotype of subjects clearly determines response to the quantity and quality of dietary fat on MetS risk factors, which suggests that targeted and personalized dietary therapies may be of value for its different metabolic features. This study was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT00429195.
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| 3. |
- Diaz, Sandra, et al.
(author)
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The IPBES Conceptual Framework - connecting nature and people
- 2015
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In: Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability. - : Elsevier BV. - 1877-3435 .- 1877-3443. ; 14, s. 1-16
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The first public product of the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) is its Conceptual Framework. This conceptual and analytical tool, presented here in detail, will underpin all IPBES functions and provide structure and comparability to the syntheses that IPBES will produce at different spatial scales, on different themes, and in different regions. Salient innovative aspects of the IPBES Conceptual Framework are its transparent and participatory construction process and its explicit consideration of diverse scientific disciplines, stakeholders, and knowledge systems, including indigenous and local knowledge. Because the focus on co-construction of integrative knowledge is shared by an increasing number of initiatives worldwide, this framework should be useful beyond IPBES, for the wider research and knowledge-policy communities working on the links between nature and people, such as natural, social and engineering scientists, policy-makers at different levels, and decision-makers in different sectors of society.
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