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- Menkveld, Albert J., et al.
(author)
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Nonstandard Errors
- 2024
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In: JOURNAL OF FINANCE. - : Wiley-Blackwell. - 0022-1082 .- 1540-6261. ; 79:3, s. 2339-2390
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- In statistics, samples are drawn from a population in a data-generating process (DGP). Standard errors measure the uncertainty in estimates of population parameters. In science, evidence is generated to test hypotheses in an evidence-generating process (EGP). We claim that EGP variation across researchers adds uncertainty-nonstandard errors (NSEs). We study NSEs by letting 164 teams test the same hypotheses on the same data. NSEs turn out to be sizable, but smaller for more reproducible or higher rated research. Adding peer-review stages reduces NSEs. We further find that this type of uncertainty is underestimated by participants.
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2. |
- Bergemalm, Daniel, 1977-, et al.
(author)
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Systemic Inflammation in Preclinical Ulcerative Colitis
- 2021
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In: Gastroenterology. - : AGA Institute. - 0016-5085 .- 1528-0012. ; 161:5, s. 1526-1539.e9
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background & Aims: Preclinical ulcerative colitis is poorly defined. We aimed to characterize the preclinical systemic inflammation in ulcerative colitis, using a comprehensive set of proteins.Methods: We obtained plasma samples biobanked from individuals who developed ulcerative colitis later in life (n = 72) and matched healthy controls (n = 140) within a population-based screening cohort. We measured 92 proteins related to inflammation using a proximity extension assay. The biologic relevance of these findings was validated in an inception cohort of patients with ulcerative colitis (n = 101) and healthy controls (n = 50). To examine the influence of genetic and environmental factors on these markers, a cohort of healthy twin siblings of patients with ulcerative colitis (n = 41) and matched healthy controls (n = 37) were explored.Results: Six proteins (MMP10, CXCL9, CCL11, SLAMF1, CXCL11 and MCP-1) were up-regulated (P < .05) in preclinical ulcerative colitis compared with controls based on both univariate and multivariable models. Ingenuity Pathway Analyses identified several potential key regulators, including interleukin-1β, tumor necrosis factor, interferon-gamma, oncostatin M, nuclear factor-κB, interleukin-6, and interleukin-4. For validation, we built a multivariable model to predict disease in the inception cohort. The model discriminated treatment-naïve patients with ulcerative colitis from controls with leave-one-out cross-validation (area under the curve = 0.92). Consistently, MMP10, CXCL9, CXCL11, and MCP-1, but not CCL11 and SLAMF1, were significantly up-regulated among the healthy twin siblings, even though their relative abundances seemed higher in incident ulcerative colitis.Conclusions: A set of inflammatory proteins are up-regulated several years before a diagnosis of ulcerative colitis. These proteins were highly predictive of an ulcerative colitis diagnosis, and some seemed to be up-regulated already at exposure to genetic and environmental risk factors.
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