| 1. |
- Andersson, Johnn, 1983, et al.
(author)
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On the functional and structural scope of technological innovation systems – A literature review with conceptual suggestions
- 2023
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In: Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions. - 2210-4224 .- 2210-4232. ; 49
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Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This paper reviews how the functional and structural scope of technological innovation systems (TIS) are understood in the literature. We find that it is often unclear if the system function involves innovation, production or both, and a lack of agreement as to whether structural elements are social or social and technical. Since these issues risk hindering cumulative knowledge development and conceptual advancements, we argue that a clear and shared underlying system model is needed. Taking steps in this direction, we propose that the function of a TIS is to develop and shape a specific technology; that this technology can be understood as a production-consumption system; and that the structural elements of a TIS are social, technical and possibly ecological. In addition, we offer guidance to boundary-setting in empirical case studies. We hope that the paper will inspire continued conceptual development in the TIS community and beyond.
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| 2. |
- Andersson, Johnn, 1983, et al.
(author)
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Photovoltaics in Sweden – Success or failure?
- 2021
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In: Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews. - : Elsevier BV. - 1879-0690 .- 1364-0321. ; 143
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Promoting global energy transitions while stimulating domestic industrialization requires national policymaking that shapes technological innovation towards specific outcomes. Although this is inherently difficult, historical case studies may bring a better understanding of innovation dynamics and thereby guide the design of future policy interventions. The purpose of this paper is to review and analyze the emergence of Swedish photovoltaics technology from a policy perspective. Our main aim is to provide a retrospective account of historical developments, but we also derive more general insights about technological innovation and related policy challenges. The paper departs from an adapted analytical framework based on the technological innovation systems approach. Our review identifies four decades of Swedish research that has largely failed to drive domestic commercialization, the rise and fall of an industry that mainly served international markets, and a rapidly growing domestic market based on imported products. This situation is the result of mismatches and fragmentation among key innovation processes, which have not been addressed by strategic policy interventions. We suggest that policymakers should promote a full range of innovation processes and consider making innovation support subject to a payback mechanism that delivers a return on public investments even if industries and markets emerge abroad. Our study also demonstrates how the technological innovation systems approach can be extended to include the function commercialization and emphasizes the importance of paying attention to the directionality of technological innovation processes.
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| 3. |
- Andersson, Johnn, 1983, et al.
(author)
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The outcomes of directionality: Towards a morphology of sociotechnical systems
- 2021
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In: Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions. - : Elsevier BV. - 2210-4224 .- 2210-4232. ; 40, s. 108-131
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The sustainability transitions literature departs from the idea that grand challenges such as climate change and rising inequality call for far-reaching changes in sociotechnical systems of production and consumption. This implies a dual interest in the directionality of innovation; some directions of change can be perceived as more desirable, while others may be more plausible due to the path dependent nature of sociotechnical change. The specific characteristics of the potential outcomes of directionality have, however, received little attention. Our aim is therefore to unpack and conceptualize the multidimensional space in which sociotechnical systems may adopt different shapes and configurations. We also provide three illustrative empirical examples where directionality has resulted in systems with different technical, social and spatial characteristics. The ideas put forward in this paper can be seen as a contribution to a morphology of sociotechnical systems and thereby support efforts to investigate or promote specific directions of change.
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| 4. |
- Arvidsson, Rickard, 1984, et al.
(author)
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A crustal scarcity indicator for long-term global elemental resource assessment in LCA
- 2020
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In: International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1614-7502 .- 0948-3349. ; 25:9, s. 1805-1817
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Purpose: How to assess impacts of mineral resources is much discussed in life cycle assessment (LCA). We see a need for, and a lack of, a mineral resource impact assessment method that captures the perspective of long-term global scarcity of elements. Method: A midpoint-level mineral resource impact assessment method matching this perspective is proposed, called the crustal scarcity indicator (CSI), with characterization factors called crustal scarcity potentials (CSPs) measured as kg silicon equivalents per kg element. They are based on crustal concentrations, which have been suggested to correlate with several important resource metrics (reserves, reserve base, reserves plus cumulative production, and ore deposits), thereby constituting proxies for long-term global elemental scarcity. Results and discussion: Ready-to-use CSPs are provided for 76 elements, through which the CSI can be calculated by multiplying with the respective masses of elements extracted from Earth’s crust for a certain product. As follows from their crustal concentrations, the three platinum-group metals iridium, osmium, and rhodium have the highest CSPs, whereas silicon, aluminum, and iron have the lowest CSPs. Conclusion: An evaluation of the CSPs and the characterization factors of four other mineral resource impact assessment methods in LCA (the abiotic depletion, the surplus ore, the cumulative exergy demand, and the EPS methods) were conducted. It showed that the CSPs are temporally reliable, calculated in a consistent way, and have a high coverage of elements in comparison. Furthermore, a quantitative comparison with the characterization factors of the four other methods showed that the CSPs reflect long-term global elemental scarcity comparatively well while requiring a minimum of assumptions and input parameters. Recommendations: We recommend using the CSI for assessments of long-term global elemental scarcity in LCA. Since the CSI is at the midpoint level, it can be complemented by other mineral resource impact assessment methods (both existing and to be developed) to provide a more comprehensive view of mineral resource impacts in an LCA.
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| 5. |
- Arvidsson, Rickard, 1984, et al.
(author)
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Life-cycle impact assessment methods for physical energy scarcity: considerations and suggestions
- 2021
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In: International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1614-7502 .- 0948-3349. ; 26:12, s. 2339-2354
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Purpose: Most approaches for energy use assessment in life cycle assessment do not consider the scarcity of energy resources. A few approaches consider the scarcity of fossil energy resources only. No approach considers the scarcity of both renewable and non-renewable energy resources. In this paper, considerations for including physical energy scarcity of both renewable and non-renewable energy resources in life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) are discussed. Methods: We begin by discussing a number of considerations for LCIA methods for energy scarcity, such as which impacts of scarcity to consider, which energy resource types to include, which spatial resolutions to choose, and how to match with inventory data. We then suggest three LCIA methods for physical energy scarcity. As proof of concept, the use of the third LCIA method is demonstrated in a well-to-wheel assessment of eight vehicle propulsion fuels. Results and discussion: We suggest that global potential physical scarcity can be operationalized using characterization factors based on the reciprocal physical availability for a set of nine commonly inventoried energy resource types. The three suggested LCIA methods for physical energy scarcity consider the following respective energy resource types: (i) only stock-type energy resources (natural gas, coal, crude oil and uranium), (ii) only flow-type energy resources (solar, wind, hydro, geothermal and the flow generated from biomass funds), and (iii) both stock- and flow-type resources by introducing a time horizon over which the stock-type resources are distributed. Characterization factors for these three methods are provided. Conclusions: LCIA methods for physical energy scarcity that provide meaningful information and complement other methods are feasible and practically applicable. The characterization factors of the three suggested LCIA methods depend heavily on the aggregation level of energy resource types. Future studies may investigate how physical energy scarcity changes over time and geographical locations.
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| 6. |
- Arvidsson, Rickard, 1984, et al.
(author)
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Problems from including technospheric parameters in characterization factors for natural resources
- 2022
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Conference paper (other academic/artistic)abstract
- The life cycle inventory (LCI) analysis generally considers a product system in the technosphere, whereas the life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) is generally concerned with impacts in nature. However, in LCIA methods for natural resources, we have noticed a tendency to include technospheric parameters. This practise, which deviates from the predominant use of parameters related to environmental processes in characterization factors for emissions, has not received much attention in the LCA community. Here, we discuss a number of problems arising from such inclusions. Three types of technospheric parameters found in characterization factors for natural resources were analysed: (i) extraction rates, (ii) recycled contents, and (iii) prices. Extraction rates vary over time, and frequent updating is therefore needed to avoid outdated characterization factors. Furthermore, the inclusion of extraction rates in the characterization factors creates an interdependency between the LCI analysis and the LCIA, since extraction rates are also part of the inventory modelling. We show that such interdependencies can potentially lead to counterproductive information. Regarding recycled contents, when inventory data with recycled content are matched with characterization factors also taking recycled content into account, the benefit of recycling is double counted. Furthermore, it introduces a risk of inconsistency: the recycled contents in the characterization factors may not match those in the LCI analysis. In addition, characterization factors based on recycled contents are also time sensitive. Prices are commonly used in economic allocation in the LCI analysis. When they are also used in characterization factors, there is a risk of inconsistency if these prices are not the same as those used in the allocation. In addition, prices are very time sensitive, potentially fluctuating notably even on a daily basis. There are possible solutions to some of these problems, such as frequent updating of characterization factors and avoiding economic allocation. However, these solutions come at a cost. For example, frequent updating of characterization factors is work intensive, and economic allocation may be otherwise recommendable in some studies. For the LCI-LCIA interdependency, we see no obvious solution. Considering the identified problems, we recommend further critical discussions on the inclusion of technospheric parameters in characterization factors for natural resources.
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| 7. |
- Arvidsson, Rickard, 1984, et al.
(author)
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Prospective, Anticipatory and Ex-Ante – What’s the Difference? Sorting Out Concepts for Time-Related LCA
- 2023
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Conference paper (other academic/artistic)abstract
- Most life cycle assessment (LCA) studies have considered technologies as they are at the time of the study, often in a mature state. Increasingly, LCA studies attempt to assess emerging technologies in imagined states at future points in time, often referred to as prospective, anticipatory or ex-ante. However, a clear distinction between these LCA types is lacking. We aim to sort these concepts into a typology of time-related LCAs, contributing to more purposeful methodological choices. Existing frameworks for time-realted LCA types were reviewed and typology consisting of three dimensions was found to capture the most important differences. The first dimension is real time, which captures the time difference between the functional unit and the LCA. If the technology is modelled at approximately the same time as when the LCA is conducted, it can be called contemporary LCA. If the technology is modelled at a future point in time relative to the analysis, it can be called prospective LCA, and retrospective LCA if it is modelled at a past point in time relative to the study. Dynamic LCA accounts for that a technology can be “stretched out” along the real time dimension. The second dimension is technology maturity, which can be measured by technology readiness levels (TRLs). Ex-ante LCA considers technologies that are immature at the time of the study but model them in a future when they are assumed to have become mature, and is thus a specific type of prospective LCA. In contrast, ex-post LCA refers to studies of technologies that have reached maturity at the time of the study. Anticipatory LCA is effectively similar to ex-ante LCA but also entails the inclusion of numerous stakeholders in shaping the LCA study. Lab-scale LCA is a contemporary LCA of an immature technology with the aim of suggesting improvements to technology developers. The third dimension is causality. Some LCA studies mainly consider causes of a functional unit, which is often referred to as attributional LCA. Other LCA studies mainly consider effects of a functional unit, which can be called consequential LCA. While the former can be said to look backwards in time, the latter can be said to look forward in time from the perspective of the functional unit. Both types can, however, be retrospective, contemporary, or prospective LCAs as defined above. It is also possible to consider different types of causality, which relate differently to real time and technology maturity.
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| 8. |
- Arvidsson, Rickard, 1984, et al.
(author)
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Terminology for future-oriented life cycle assessment: review and recommendations
- 2024
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In: International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment. - 1614-7502 .- 0948-3349. ; 29:4, s. 607-613
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Journal article (other academic/artistic)abstract
- Purpose Some future-oriented life cycle assessment (LCA) terms, particularly prospective and ex-ante, show notable increase in use in publications over the last decade. However, scholars have pointed out that it is currently unclear exactly what these terms mean and how they are related. This paper aims to explain defining differences between future-oriented LCA terms and provide terminology recommendations. Methods Existing definitions of future-oriented LCA terms were reviewed and analyzed. Workshops were held where defining differences of future-oriented LCA terms were discussed. Results Temporal positionality and technology maturity appear to be two critical aspects of future-oriented LCA. Prospective and ex-ante LCA are similar, with the possible difference that ex-ante LCA always involves an increase in technology maturity in the future. Considering the notable similarities, it seems reasonable to converge terms to mitigate field fragmentation and avoid terminology confusion. Conclusions To denote LCA studies with a future temporal positionality, we recommend using the term prospective LCA, defined as "LCA that models the product system at a future point in time relative to the time at which the study is conducted". Furthermore, since technology maturity is clearly a critical aspect for prospective LCA, we recommend prospective LCA studies to clearly define the maturity of the technologies modeled in the production system.
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| 9. |
- Arvidsson, Rickard, 1984, et al.
(author)
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Using industrial default values for prospective modeling of new materials production – the case of photon upconversion materials for solar modules
- 2021
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Conference paper (other academic/artistic)abstract
- Several approaches to upscaling of materials production processes in the context of prospective life cycle assessment (LCA) have been proposed. Often, such approaches are bottom-up, departing from laboratory-scale descriptions of production processes and from that creating a model of future large-scale production. While such approaches make use of the material-specific knowledge available at the time of the assessment, they often neglect emergent aspects that may be present at factory level. An alternative, more top-down approach is to use industrial default values, i.e. average or typical values of inputs and outputs reflecting materials production today. Since production facilities normally do not change drastically over at least 10 years, such values might be relevant in prospective LCAs, at least given modest time horizons. Such default values can also be modified based on assumptions about future changes, such as increased energy recovery or novel solvent recovery processes. We applied previously derived industrial default values for fine chemical production when modeling the production of two materials with potential use in photon upconversion applications: lead sulfide (PbS) and lead selenide (PbSe) nanoparticles. Photon upconversion means that two low-energy photons are converted into one higher-energy photon utilizable by a solar module. While we used some material-specific values, such as synthesis-specific yields, most auxiliary input and output values (e.g. solvents, inert gas, heat, electricity and emissions) instead represent factory-scale values for current fine chemical production. Considering the availability of both best- and worst-case default values, it was possible to derive ranges for the likely future environmental impacts of the two materials. We conclude that the approach is feasible, but the availability of more up-to-date industrial default values would make it even more relevant in prospective LCAs.
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| 10. |
- Bitencourt de Oliveira, Felipe, 1982, et al.
(author)
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Assessing Metal Use and Scarcity Impacts of Vehicle Gliders
- 2024
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In: Circular Economy and Sustainability. - 2730-597X .- 2730-5988. ; In Press
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This study assesses the metal composition of two vehicle gliders, configured with different equipment levels and evaluates the risk of short and long-term metal scarcity. Entropy analysis is also used for insights on secondary metal recovery strategies. Fifty-five metals are evaluated, with gold, copper, bismuth, lead, molybdenum, and certain rare-earth metals (REMs) subject to the largest supply risks. Differences in equipment levels significantly impact the short-term supply risk for specific metals. Entertainment and communications equipment contain significant amounts of REMs, whereas mirrors and electrical infrastructure contain considerable shares of gold, silver and copper. Some metals are concentrated in a few components while some are dispersed across thousands, impacting recycling opportunities. The broad metal demand of the gliders underscores the automotive industry's role in supply risks for its own manufacturing needs and other societal domains. This emphasizes the significance of comprehensively evaluating metal requirements beyond powertrains for informed resource management.
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