| 1. |
- Breznau, Nate, et al.
(author)
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Observing many researchers using the same data and hypothesis reveals a hidden universe of uncertainty
- 2022
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In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. - : National Academy of Sciences. - 0027-8424 .- 1091-6490. ; 119:44
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This study explores how researchers analytical choices affect the reliability of scientific findings. Most discussions of reliability problems in science focus on systematic biases. We broaden the lens to emphasize the idiosyncrasy of conscious and unconscious decisions that researchers make during data analysis. We coordinated 161 researchers in 73 research teams and observed their research decisions as they used the same data to independently test the same prominent social science hypothesis: that greater immigration reduces support for social policies among the public. In this typical case of social science research, research teams reported both widely diverging numerical findings and substantive conclusions despite identical start conditions. Researchers expertise, prior beliefs, and expectations barely predict the wide variation in research outcomes. More than 95% of the total variance in numerical results remains unexplained even after qualitative coding of all identifiable decisions in each teams workflow. This reveals a universe of uncertainty that remains hidden when considering a single study in isolation. The idiosyncratic nature of how researchers results and conclusions varied is a previously underappreciated explanation for why many scientific hypotheses remain contested. These results call for greater epistemic humility and clarity in reporting scientific findings.
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| 2. |
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| 3. |
- Baumeister, Hannah, et al.
(author)
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A generalizable data-driven model of atrophy heterogeneity and progression in memory clinic settings
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In: Brain : a journal of neurology. - 1460-2156. ; 147:7, s. 2400-2413
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Memory clinic patients are a heterogeneous population representing various aetiologies of pathological aging. It is unknown if divergent spatiotemporal progression patterns of brain atrophy, as previously described in Alzheimer's disease (AD) patients, are prevalent and clinically meaningful in this group of older adults. To uncover distinct atrophy subtypes, we applied the Subtype and Stage Inference (SuStaIn) algorithm to baseline structural MRI data from 813 participants enrolled in the DELCODE cohort (mean ± SD age = 70.67 ± 6.07 years, 52% females). Participants were cognitively unimpaired (CU; n = 285) or fulfilled diagnostic criteria for subjective cognitive decline (SCD; n = 342), mild cognitive impairment (MCI; n = 118), or dementia of the Alzheimer's type (n = 68). Atrophy subtypes were compared in baseline demographics, fluid AD biomarker levels, the Preclinical Alzheimer Cognitive Composite (PACC-5), as well as episodic memory and executive functioning. PACC-5 trajectories over up to 240 weeks were examined. To test if baseline atrophy subtype and stage predicted clinical trajectories before manifest cognitive impairment, we analysed PACC-5 trajectories and MCI conversion rates of CU and SCD participants. Limbic-predominant and hippocampal-sparing atrophy subtypes were identified. Limbic-predominant atrophy first affected the medial temporal lobes, followed by further temporal and, finally, the remaining cortical regions. At baseline, this subtype was related to older age, more pathological AD biomarker levels, APOE ε4 carriership, and an amnestic cognitive impairment. Hippocampal-sparing atrophy initially occurred outside the temporal lobe with the medial temporal lobe spared up to advanced atrophy stages. This atrophy pattern also affected individuals with positive AD biomarkers and was associated with more generalised cognitive impairment. Limbic-predominant atrophy, in all and in only unimpaired participants, was linked to more negative longitudinal PACC-5 slopes than observed in participants without or with hippocampal-sparing atrophy and increased the risk of MCI conversion. SuStaIn modelling was repeated in a sample from the Swedish BioFINDER-2 cohort. Highly similar atrophy progression patterns and associated cognitive profiles were identified. Cross-cohort model generalizability, both on the subject and group level, were excellent, indicating reliable performance in previously unseen data. The proposed model is a promising tool for capturing heterogeneity among older adults at early at-risk states for AD in applied settings. The implementation of atrophy subtype- and stage-specific end-points may increase the statistical power of pharmacological trials targeting early AD.
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| 4. |
- Gorostiaga, Felipe, et al.
(author)
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Assumption Monitoring ofTemporal Task Planning Using Stream Runtime Verification
- 2022
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In: Lecture Notes in Computer Science (including subseries Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence and Lecture Notes in Bioinformatics). - Cham : Springer. - 0302-9743 .- 1611-3349.
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Conference paper (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Temporal task planning uses formal techniques such as reactive synthesis to guarantee that a robot will succeed in its mission. This technique requires certain explicit and implicit assumptions and simplifications about the operating environment of the robot, including its sensors and capabilities. A robot executing a plan can produce a silent mission failure, where the user may believe that the mission goals were achieved when instead the assumptions were violated at runtime. This entails that mitigation and remediation opportunities are missed. Monitoring at runtime can detect complex assumption violations and identify silent failures, but such monitoring requires the ability to describe and detect sophisticated temporal properties together with quantitative and complex data. Additional challenges include (1) ensuring the correctness of the monitors and a correct interplay between the planning execution and the monitors, and (2) that monitors run under constrained environments in terms of resources. In this paper we propose a solution based on stream runtime verification, which offers a high-level declarative language to describe sophisticated monitors together with guarantees on the execution time and memory usage. We show how monitors can be combined with temporal planning not only to monitor assumptions but also to support mitigation and remediation in UAV missions. We demonstrate our approach both in real and simulated flights for some typical mission scenarios.
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| 5. |
- Hou, Liping, et al.
(author)
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Genome-wide association study of 40,000 individuals identifies two novel loci associated with bipolar disorder.
- 2016
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In: Human molecular genetics. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 1460-2083 .- 0964-6906. ; 25:15, s. 3383-94
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Bipolar disorder (BD) is a genetically complex mental illness characterized by severe oscillations of mood and behavior. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified several risk loci that together account for a small portion of the heritability. To identify additional risk loci, we performed a two-stage meta-analysis of >9 million genetic variants in 9,784 bipolar disorder patients and 30,471 controls, the largest GWAS of BD to date. In this study, to increase power we used ∼2,000 lithium-treated cases with a long-term diagnosis of BD from the Consortium on Lithium Genetics, excess controls, and analytic methods optimized for markers on the X-chromosome. In addition to four known loci, results revealed genome-wide significant associations at two novel loci: an intergenic region on 9p21.3 (rs12553324, p=5.87×10(-9); odds ratio=1.12) and markers within ERBB2 (rs2517959, p=4.53×10(-9); odds ratio=1.13). No significant X-chromosome associations were detected and X-linked markers explained very little BD heritability. The results add to a growing list of common autosomal variants involved in BD and illustrate the power of comparing well-characterized cases to an excess of controls in GWAS.
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| 7. |
- Kalman, Janos L, et al.
(author)
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Investigating polygenic burden in age at disease onset in bipolar disorder: Findings from an international multicentric study.
- 2019
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In: Bipolar disorders. - : Wiley. - 1399-5618 .- 1398-5647. ; 21:1, s. 68-75
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Bipolar disorder (BD) with early disease onset is associated with an unfavorable clinical outcome and constitutes a clinically and biologically homogenous subgroup within the heterogeneous BD spectrum. Previous studies have found an accumulation of early age at onset (AAO) in BD families and have therefore hypothesized that there is a larger genetic contribution to the early-onset cases than to late onset BD. To investigate the genetic background of this subphenotype, we evaluated whether an increased polygenic burden of BD- and schizophrenia (SCZ)-associated risk variants is associated with an earlier AAO in BD patients.A total of 1995 BD type 1 patients from the Consortium of Lithium Genetics (ConLiGen), PsyCourse and Bonn-Mannheim samples were genotyped and their BD and SCZ polygenic risk scores (PRSs) were calculated using the summary statistics of the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium as a training data set. AAO was either separated into onset groups of clinical interest (childhood and adolescence [≤18years] vs adulthood [>18years]) or considered as a continuous measure. The associations between BD- and SCZ-PRSs and AAO were evaluated with regression models.BD- and SCZ-PRSs were not significantly associated with age at disease onset. Results remained the same when analyses were stratified by site of recruitment.The current study is the largest conducted so far to investigate the association between the cumulative BD and SCZ polygenic risk and AAO in BD patients. The reported negative results suggest that such a polygenic influence, if there is any, is not large, and highlight the importance of conducting further, larger scale studies to obtain more information on the genetic architecture of this clinically relevant phenotype.
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| 8. |
- Kehoe, Laura, et al.
(author)
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Make EU trade with Brazil sustainable
- 2019
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In: Science. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 0036-8075 .- 1095-9203. ; 364:6438, s. 341-
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Journal article (other academic/artistic)
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| 9. |
- Menkveld, Albert J., et al.
(author)
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Nonstandard Errors
- 2024
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In: JOURNAL OF FINANCE. - : Wiley-Blackwell. - 0022-1082 .- 1540-6261. ; 79:3, s. 2339-2390
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- In statistics, samples are drawn from a population in a data-generating process (DGP). Standard errors measure the uncertainty in estimates of population parameters. In science, evidence is generated to test hypotheses in an evidence-generating process (EGP). We claim that EGP variation across researchers adds uncertainty-nonstandard errors (NSEs). We study NSEs by letting 164 teams test the same hypotheses on the same data. NSEs turn out to be sizable, but smaller for more reproducible or higher rated research. Adding peer-review stages reduces NSEs. We further find that this type of uncertainty is underestimated by participants.
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| 10. |
- Schneider, Edith, et al.
(author)
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MicroRNA-708 is a novel regulator of the Hoxa9 program in myeloid cells.
- 2020
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In: Leukemia. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1476-5551 .- 0887-6924. ; 34, s. 1253-1265
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are commonly deregulated in acute myeloid leukemia (AML), affecting critical genes not only through direct targeting, but also through modulation of downstream effectors. Homeobox (Hox) genes balance self-renewal, proliferation, cell death, and differentiation in many tissues and aberrant Hox gene expression can create a predisposition to leukemogenesis in hematopoietic cells. However, possible linkages between the regulatory pathways of Hox genes and miRNAs are not yet fully resolved. We identified miR-708 to be upregulated in Hoxa9/Meis1 AML inducing cell lines as well as in AML patients. We further showed Meis1 directly targeting miR-708 and modulating its expression through epigenetic transcriptional regulation. CRISPR/Cas9 mediated knockout of miR-708 in Hoxa9/Meis1 cells delayed disease onset in vivo, demonstrating for the first time a pro-leukemic contribution of miR-708 in this context. Overexpression of miR-708 however strongly impeded Hoxa9 mediated transformation and homing capacity in vivo through modulation of adhesion factors and induction of myeloid differentiation. Taken together, we reveal miR-708, a putative tumor suppressor miRNA and direct target of Meis1, as a potent antagonist of the Hoxa9 phenotype but an effector of transformation in Hoxa9/Meis1. This unexpected finding highlights the yet unexplored role of miRNAs as indirect regulators of the Hox program during normal and aberrant hematopoiesis.
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