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- Schrijver, Carolus J., et al.
(author)
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Understanding space weather to shield society : A global road map for 2015-2025 commissioned by COSPAR and ILWS
- 2015
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In: Advances in Space Research. - : Elsevier BV. - 0273-1177 .- 1879-1948. ; 55:12, s. 2745-2807
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- There is a growing appreciation that the environmental conditions that we call space weather impact the technological infrastructure that powers the coupled economies around the world. With that comes the need to better shield society against space weather by improving forecasts, environmental specifications, and infrastructure design. We recognize that much progress has been made and continues to be made with a powerful suite of research observatories on the ground and in space, forming the basis of a Sun Earth system observatory. But the domain of space weather is vast extending from deep within the Sun to far outside the planetary orbits and the physics complex including couplings between various types of physical processes that link scales and domains from the microscopic to large parts of the solar system. Consequently, advanced understanding of space weather requires a coordinated international approach to effectively provide awareness of the processes within the Sun Earth system through observation-driven models. This roadmap prioritizes the scientific focus areas and research infrastructure that are needed to significantly advance our understanding of space weather of all intensities and of its implications for society. Advancement of the existing system observatory through the addition of small to moderate state-of-the-art capabilities designed to fill observational gaps will enable significant advances. Such a strategy requires urgent action: key instrumentation needs to be sustained, and action needs to be taken before core capabilities are lost in the aging ensemble. We recommend advances through priority focus (1) on observation-based modeling throughout the Sun Earth system, (2) on forecasts more than 12 h ahead of the magnetic structure of incoming coronal mass ejections, (3) on understanding the geospace response to variable solar-wind stresses that lead to intense geomagnetically-induced currents and ionospheric and radiation storms, and (4) on developing a comprehensive specification of space climate, including the characterization of extreme space storms to guide resilient and robust engineering of technological infrastructures. The roadmap clusters its implementation recommendations by formulating three action pathways, and outlines needed instrumentation and research programs and infrastructure for each of these. An executive summary provides an overview of all recommendations.
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| 2. |
- Schrijver, L, et al.
(author)
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Oral contraceptive use and breast cancer risk: A cohort study of BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers
- 2017
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In: Cancer Research. - 1538-7445. ; 77:13 Suppl 1
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Conference paper (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers are at high risk of breast and ovarian cancer. Oral contraceptive preparations (OCPs) may reduce ovarian cancer risk, but its effect on breast cancer risk remains unclear. Methods: Combined data from three cohorts of 5705 BRCA1 and 3521 BRCA2 mutation carriers (IBCCS, BCFR and kConFab) were analyzed using age-dependent Cox regression models stratified for study and birth cohort. We conducted the first prospective analyses on this topic. Our additional main retrospective analyses were leftcensored 5 years preceding date of baseline questionnaire to control for survival bias. The full-cohort retrospective analyses, without left-censoring, was performed to compare results with the literature. Prospective analyses were considered most valid, while retrospective analyses were most powerful. Results: For BRCA1 mutation carriers we found no association between ever OCP use and risk of breast cancer in the prospective analyses (HR=1.08, 95% CI 0.75-1.56), but 23% and 27% increased risks for ever OCP use in the left-censored and full retrospective analyses, respectively. Retrospectively, an increasing trend for longer duration of use, especially before first full-term pregnancy (FFTP) was found (left-censored analyses: 10 years HR 1.41 (95%CI 1.10-1.813), p-trend=0.001 for duration of use before FFTP). For BRCA2 mutation carriers we found a positive association between ever OCP use and risk of breast cancer prospectively (HR=1.75, 95% CI 1.03-2.97), but retrospectively findings were inconsistent (HR=1.06, 95% CI 0.85-1.33 and HR=1.52, 95% CI 1.28-1.81 for the left-censored and full analyses, respectively). Conclusion: For BRCA1 mutation carriers the discrepancy between results of prospective and retrospective analyses may be explained by time since last OCP use before FFTP. Thus, a temporal increased risk of breast cancer following longer duration of OCP use before FFTP cannot be ruled out. The discordant findings between prospective and retrospective analyses for BRCA2 carriers could not be explained. Because of the lack of scientific clarity it is too early to give an unequivocal advice on OCP use with respect to breast cancer risk to BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers.
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