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- Kaptoge, S., et al.
(author)
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World Health Organization cardiovascular disease risk charts: revised models to estimate risk in 21 global regions
- 2019
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In: Lancet Global Health. - : Elsevier BV. - 2214-109X. ; 7:10
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background To help adapt cardiovascular disease risk prediction approaches to low-income and middle-income countries, WHO has convened an effort to develop, evaluate, and illustrate revised risk models. Here, we report the derivation, validation, and illustration of the revised WHO cardiovascular disease risk prediction charts that have been adapted to the circumstances of 21 global regions. Methods In this model revision initiative, we derived 10-year risk prediction models for fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (ie, myocardial infarction and stroke) using individual participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration. Models included information on age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes, and total cholesterol. For derivation, we included participants aged 40-80 years without a known baseline history of cardiovascular disease, who were followed up until the first myocardial infarction, fatal coronary heart disease, or stroke event. We recalibrated models using age-specific and sex-specific incidences and risk factor values available from 21 global regions. For external validation, we analysed individual participant data from studies distinct from those used in model derivation. We illustrated models by analysing data on a further 123 743 individuals from surveys in 79 countries collected with the WHO STEPwise Approach to Surveillance. Findings Our risk model derivation involved 376 177 individuals from 85 cohorts, and 19 333 incident cardiovascular events recorded during 10 years of follow-up. The derived risk prediction models discriminated well in external validation cohorts (19 cohorts, 1 096 061 individuals, 25 950 cardiovascular disease events), with Harrell's C indices ranging from 0.685 (95% CI 0 . 629-0 741) to 0.833 (0 . 783-0- 882). For a given risk factor profile, we found substantial variation across global regions in the estimated 10-year predicted risk. For example, estimated cardiovascular disease risk for a 60-year-old male smoker without diabetes and with systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg and total cholesterol of 5 mmol/L ranged from 11% in Andean Latin America to 30% in central Asia. When applied to data from 79 countries (mostly low-income and middle-income countries), the proportion of individuals aged 40-64 years estimated to be at greater than 20% risk ranged from less than 1% in Uganda to more than 16% in Egypt. Interpretation We have derived, calibrated, and validated new WHO risk prediction models to estimate cardiovascular disease risk in 21 Global Burden of Disease regions. The widespread use of these models could enhance the accuracy, practicability, and sustainability of efforts to reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease worldwide. Copyright (C) 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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- Schrieks, I. C., et al.
(author)
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Adiponectin, Free Fatty Acids, and Cardiovascular Outcomes in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes and Acute Coronary Syndrome
- 2018
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In: Diabetes Care. - : American Diabetes Association. - 0149-5992 .- 1935-5548. ; 41:8, s. 1792-1800
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- OBJECTIVE In observational cohorts, adiponectin is inversely associated and free fatty acids (FFAs) are directly associated with incident coronary heart disease (CHD). Adiponectin tends to be reduced and FFAs elevated in type 2 diabetes. We investigated relationships of adiponectin and FFA and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) and death in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and type 2 diabetes using data from the AleCardio (Effect of Aleglitazar on Cardiovascular Outcomes After Acute Coronary Syndrome in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus) trial, which compared the PPAR-alpha/gamma agonist aleglitazar with placebo. Using Cox regression adjusted for demographic, laboratory, and treatment variables, we determined associations of baseline adiponectin and FFAs, or the change in adiponectin and FFAs from baseline, with MACEs (cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or stroke) and death. A twofold higher baseline adiponectin (n = 6,998) was directly associated with risk of MACEs (hazard ratio [HR] 1.17 [95% CI 1.08-1.27]) and death (HR 1.53 [95% CI 1.35-1.73]). A doubling of adiponectin from baseline to month 3 (n = 6,325) was also associated with risk of death (HR 1.20 [95% CI 1.03-1.41]). Baseline FFAs (n = 7,038), but not change in FFAs from baseline (n = 6,365), were directly associated with greater risk of MACEs and death. There were no interactions with study treatment. In contrast to prior observational data for incident CHD, adiponectin is prospectively associated with MACEs and death in patients with type 2 diabetes and ACS, and an increase in adiponectin from baseline is directly related to death. These findings raise the possibility that adiponectin has different effects in patients with type 2 diabetes and ACS than in populations without prevalent cardiovascular disease. Consistent with prior data, FFAs are directly associated with adverse outcomes.
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- Stahli, B. E., et al.
(author)
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Homeostasis Model Assessment of Insulin Resistance and Survival in Patients With Diabetes and Acute Coronary Syndrome
- 2018
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In: Journal of Clinical Endocrinology & Metabolism. - : The Endocrine Society. - 0021-972X .- 1945-7197. ; 103:7, s. 2522-2533
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Objective: Insulin resistance has been linked to development and progression of atherosclerosis and is present in most patients with type 2 diabetes. Whether the degree of insulin resistance predicts adverse outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes and acute coronary syndrome (ACS) is uncertain. Design: The Effect of Aleglitazar on Cardiovascular Outcomes after Acute Coronary Syndrome in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus trial compared the peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor-a/g agonist aleglitazar with placebo in patients with type 2 diabetes and recent ACS. In participants not treated with insulin, we determined whether baseline homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR; n = 4303) or the change in HOMA-IR on assigned study treatment (n = 3568) was related to the risk of death or major adverse cardiovascular events (cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, and stroke) in unadjusted and adjusted models. Because an inverse association of HOMA-IR with N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) has been described, we specifically examined effects of adjustment for the latter. Results: In unadjusted analysis, twofold higher baseline HOMA-IR was associated with lower risk of death [hazard ratio (HR): 0.79, 95% CI: 0.68 to 0.91, P = 0.002]. Adjustment for 24 standard demographic and clinical variables had minimal effect on this association. However, after further adjustment for NT-proBNP, the association of HOMA-IR with death was no longer present (adjusted HR: 0.99, 95% CI: 0.83 to 1.19, P = 0.94). Baseline HOMA-IR was not associated with major adverse cardiovascular events, nor was the change in HOMA-IR on study treatment associated with death or major adverse cardiovascular events. Conclusions: After accounting for levels of NT-proBNP, insulin resistance assessed by HOMA-IR is not related to the risk of death or major adverse cardiovascular events in patients with type 2 diabetes and ACS.
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