| 1. |
- Du, Shixiong, et al.
(author)
-
Projection of Precipitation Extremes and Flood Risk in the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor
- 2022
-
In: Frontiers in Environmental Science. - : Frontiers Media SA. - 2296-665X. ; 10
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- It is reported that the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor has been affected by extreme precipitation events. Since the 20th century, extreme weather events have occurred frequently, and the damage and loss caused by them have increased. In particular, the flood disaster caused by excessive extreme precipitation seriously hindered the development of the human society. Based on CRiteria Importance Through Intercriteria Correlation and square root of generalized cross-validation, this study used intensity–area–duration to analyze the trend of future extreme precipitation events, corrected the equidistance cumulative distribution function method deviation of different future scenario models (CESM2, CNRM-CM6-1, IPSL-CM6A-LR, and MIROC6) and evaluated the simulation ability of the revised model. The results showed that: 1) the deviation correction results of CNRM-CM6-1 in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase (CMIP) 6 could better simulate the precipitation data in the study area, and its single result could achieve the fitting effect of the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble average; 2) under CNRM-CM6-1, the frequency of extreme precipitation events under the three climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) presents interdecadal fluctuations of 3.215 times/10A, 1.215 times/10A, and 5.063 times/10A, respectively. The average impact area of extreme precipitation events would decrease in the next 30 years, while the total impact area and the extreme precipitation events in a small range would increase. Under the future scenario, the increase rate of extreme precipitation was highest in August, which increased the probability of extreme events; 3) in the next 30 years, the flood risk had an obvious expansion trend, which was mainly reflected in the expansion of the area of high-, medium-, and low-risk areas. The risk zoning results obtained by the two different flood risk assessment methods were different, but the overall risk trend was the same. This study provided more advanced research for regional flood risk, reasonable prediction for flood risk under future climate models, and useful information for flood disaster prediction in the study area and contributes to the formulation of local disaster prevention and reduction policies.
|
|
| 2. |
- Sun, Huaiwei, et al.
(author)
-
The altered drivers of evapotranspiration trends around the recent warming hiatus in China
- 2022
-
In: International Journal of Climatology. - : Wiley. - 0899-8418 .- 1097-0088. ; 42:16, s. 8405-8422
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This study focuses on the trends and the causes of variation in actual evapotranspiration (AET) around the warming hiatus over China by a comprehensive analysis applying various temporal–spatial methods. It is observed that the annual AET showed a different trend around 2000 for China as a whole. By employing segmented regression analysis for detecting warming hiatus points, high temporal inconsistency can be found in eight climatic regions of China. The impacts of meteorological variables on AET were further identified by affecting the intensity and relative change of meteorological factors. AET was highly correlated (p <.01) with solar radiation in the southeast (R = 0.80) and air specific humidity in the northwest areas (R = 0.83). AET changes presented the highest sensitivity to specific humidity in Northwest before 2006 and in north central China after 2003, with sensitivity coefficients of 1.48 and 1.74, respectively. Three variables, including air specific humidity (with an average contribution rate of ~17% in the northwest), short-wave radiation and air temperature, can be the main factors that lead to the changes in AET. The specific meteorological factors varied from region to region: the changes in AET can be ascribed to the increased wind and short-wave radiation in north central China and east China, the decreased air temperature in Tibetan Plateau, the increased specific humidity in southeast China during warming hiatus, and so on. After the warming hiatus occurred, the dominant factor of AET trends changed from air specific humidity to short-wave radiation and other factors. Generally, air specific humidity and air temperature have played leading roles in AET trends during the past 30 years.
|
|
| 3. |
- Yan, Dong, et al.
(author)
-
Allocation of ecological water rights considering ecological networks in arid watersheds : A framework and case study of Tarim River basin
- 2022
-
In: Agricultural Water Management. - : Elsevier BV. - 0378-3774. ; 267
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- A robust water supply system is significant to the local ecosystem of riparian vegetation in the arid basin. Considering the elasticity and relative importance of ecological water use in different regions of the basin, this study defines the ecological water rights on a multi-year scale, divides the priority of those rights based on the ecological network, and proposes a rights allocation method. The application of the method to the mainstream watershed of Tarim River in China shows that when the overall available ecological water is only 77% of the ecological water demand, it can ensure that the ecological water demand of vegetation in important areas is fully met and the growth condition is good. However, the demand in non-important areas must be less than 50% and the growth condition will deteriorate. This method expands the existing definition and distribution of water rights, and the approach of coupling ecological networks can be used for the efficient management of ecological water supply in other arid basins.
|
|
