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| 2. |
- Carlsen, H., et al.
(author)
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Choosing small sets of policy-relevant scenarios by combining vulnerability and diversity approaches
- 2016
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In: Environmental Modelling & Software. - : Elsevier. - 1364-8152 .- 1873-6726. ; 84, s. 155-164
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Computer simulation models can generate large numbers of scenarios, far more than can be effectively utilized in most decision support applications. How can one best select a small number of scenarios to consider? One approach calls for choosing scenarios that illuminate vulnerabilities of proposed policies. Another calls for choosing scenarios that span a diverse range of futures. This paper joins these two approaches for the first time, proposing an optimization-based method for choosing a small number of relevant scenarios that combine both vulnerability and diversity. The paper applies the method to a real case involving climate resilient infrastructure for three African river basins (Volta, Orange and Zambezi). Introducing selection criteria in a stepwise manner helps examine how different criteria influence the choice of scenarios. The results suggest that combining vulnerability- and diversity-based criteria can provide a systematic and transparent method for scenario selection.
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| 4. |
- Carlsen, Henrik, et al.
(author)
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Transparent scenario development
- 2017
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In: Nature Climate Change. - : Nature Publishing Group. - 1758-678X .- 1758-6798. ; 7:9, s. 613-613
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)
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| 5. |
- Carlsson Kanyama, Annika, et al.
(author)
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"We want to know where the line is" : comparing current planning for future sea-level rise with three core principles of robust decision support approaches
- 2019
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In: Journal of Environmental Planning and Management. - : Routledge. - 0964-0568 .- 1360-0559. ; 62:8, s. 1339-1358
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Handling uncertainties is a major challenge in climate change adaptation. A variety of robust decision support approaches that aim for better management of uncertainty have recently been emerging and are used in environmental planning. The present study examined to what extent existing processes of planning for future sea-level rise in Sweden utilised similar approaches. Three core principles of robust decision support approaches were identified and used as a tool for analyzing five cases of planning for future sea-level rise in companies and authorities at different levels in society. The results show that planning processes typically do not embrace uncertainties, do not use a bottom-up approach and do not specifically aim for robustness, which points to a discrepancy between current planning paradigms and the core principles of robust decision support approaches.
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| 6. |
- Carstens, Christoffer, et al.
(author)
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Insights from Testing a Modified Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways Approach for Spatial Planning at the Municipal Level
- 2019
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In: Sustainability. - : MDPI. - 2071-1050. ; 11:2
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP) approach has successfully been used to manage uncertainties in large infrastructure projects. However, the viability of the DAPP approach for spatial planning in smaller municipal settings is not clear. This paper examines opportunities and constraints of using adaptive pathways approaches to help small municipalities plan for future sea-level rise. The methodology was based on developing a simplified DAPP-approach, which was tested in a multiple experimental case study of spatial planning projects in three municipalities in Sweden. The results show that the approach promoted vulnerability-based thinking among the end-users and generated new ideas on how to manage the uncertain long-term impacts of future sea-level rise. However, the increased understanding of uncertainties was used to justify static, rather than adaptive, solutions. This somewhat surprising outcome can be explained by perceived legal constraints, lack of experience of adaptive pathways, and unwillingness to prescribe actions that could prove difficult to enforce in the future. More research is needed to further understand at what planning phases dynamic policy pathway approaches work best and how current barriers in legislation, practices, mind-set, organization, and resources can be overcome.
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| 8. |
- Cernvall, Martin, 1980-, et al.
(author)
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Twelve-Month Follow-Up of a Randomized Controlled Trial of Internet-Based Guided Self-Help for Parents of Children on Cancer Treatment
- 2017
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In: Journal of Medical Internet Research. - : JMIR Publications Inc.. - 1438-8871. ; 19:7
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: A substantial proportion of parents of children on cancer treatment report psychological distress such as symptoms of post-traumatic stress (PTSS), depression, and anxiety. During their child’s treatment many parents also experience an economic burden.Objective: The aim of this study was to evaluate the long-term efficacy of Internet-based guided self-help for parents of children on cancer treatment.Methods: This study was a parallel randomized controlled trial comparing a 10-week Internet-based guided self-help program, including weekly support from a therapist via encrypted email, with a wait-list control condition. The intervention was based on cognitive behavior therapy (CBT) and focused on psychoeducation and skills to cope with difficult thoughts and feelings. Primary outcome was self-reported PTSS. Secondary outcomes were self-reported symptoms of depression, anxiety, health care consumption, and sick leave during the past month. Outcomes were assessed pre- and postintervention and at 12-month follow-up. Parents of children on cancer treatment were invited by health care personnel at pediatric oncology centers, and parents meeting the modified symptom criteria on the PCL-C were included in the study. Self-report assessments were provided on the Web.Results: A total of 58 parents of children on cancer treatment (median months since diagnosis=3) were included in the study (intervention n=31 and control n=27). A total of 18 participants completed the intervention, and 16 participants in each group participated in the 12-month follow-up. Intention-to-treat analyses revealed significant effects in favor of the intervention on the primary outcome PTSS, with large between-group effect sizes at postassessment (d=0.89; 95% CI 0.35-1.43) and at 12-month follow-up (d=0.78; 95% CI 0.25-1.32). Significant effects in favor of the intervention on the secondary outcomes depression and anxiety were also observed. However, there was no evidence for intervention efficacy on health care consumption or sick leave.Conclusions: Using the Internet to provide psychological interventions shows promise as an effective mode of delivery for parents reporting an increased level of PTSS and who consider Internet-based interventions as a viable option. Future research should corroborate these findings and also develop and evaluate interventions and policies that may help ameliorate the economic burden that parents may face during their child’s treatment for cancer.
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| 9. |
- Sriver, Ryan L., et al.
(author)
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Characterizing uncertain sea-level rise projections to support investment decisions
- 2018
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In: PLOS ONE. - : PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE. - 1932-6203. ; 13:2
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Many institutions worldwide are considering how to include uncertainty about future changes in sea-levels and storm surges into their investment decisions regarding large capital infrastructures. Here we examine how to characterize deeply uncertain climate change projections to support such decisions using Robust Decision Making analysis. We address questions regarding how to confront the potential for future changes in low probability but large impact flooding events due to changes in sea-levels and storm surges. Such extreme events can affect investments in infrastructure but have proved difficult to consider in such decisions because of the deep uncertainty surrounding them. This study utilizes Robust Decision Making methods to address two questions applied to investment decisions at the Port of Los Angeles: (1) Under what future conditions would a Port of Los Angeles decision to harden its facilities against extreme flood scenarios at the next upgrade pass a cost-benefit test, and (2) Do sea-level rise projections and other information suggest such conditions are sufficiently likely to justify such an investment? We also compare and contrast the Robust Decision Making methods with a full probabilistic analysis. These two analysis frameworks result in similar investment recommendations for different idealized future sea-level projections, but provide different information to decision makers and envision different types of engagement with stakeholders. In particular, the full probabilistic analysis begins by aggregating the best scientific information into a single set of joint probability distributions, while the Robust Decision Making analysis identifies scenarios where a decision to invest in near-term response to extreme sea-level rise passes a cost-benefit test, and then assembles scientific information of differing levels of confidence to help decision makers judge whether or not these scenarios are sufficiently likely to justify making such investments. Results highlight the highly-localized and context dependent nature of applying Robust Decision Making methods to inform investment decisions.
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| 10. |
- von Oelreich, Jacob, 1978-, et al.
(author)
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Planning for future sea-level rise in Swedish municipalities
- 2015
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In: Local Environment. - London : Routledge. - 1354-9839 .- 1469-6711. ; 20:4, s. 459-473
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- A warmer climate leads to rising sea levels. Despite uncertainties about how rapid and substantial future sea-level rise (SLR) will be, society needs to prepare and adapt. This study examines the state of planning for future SLR in Sweden by surveying 33 coastal municipalities in southern Sweden and interviewing local, regional and national authorities with relevant accountability. The results reveal that there are considerable gaps in current planning for SLR. Almost one-third of municipalities lack guiding planning documents for SLR, and more than two-thirds do not discuss SLR beyond 2100. We argue that the prevailing uncertainty and ambiguity in assessments of future SLR is problematic within a traditional “predict-then-act” paradigm, and that robust approaches, such as scenario planning, can reduce many of these problems.
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