| 11. |
- Bentham, James, et al.
(author)
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A century of trends in adult human height
- 2016
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In: eLIFE. - 2050-084X. ; 5
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Being taller is associated with enhanced longevity, and higher education and earnings. We reanalysed 1472 population-based studies, with measurement of height on more than 18.6 million participants to estimate mean height for people born between 1896 and 1996 in 200 countries. The largest gain in adult height over the past century has occurred in South Korean women and Iranian men, who became 20.2 cm (95% credible interval 17.522.7) and 16.5 cm (13.319.7) taller, respectively. In contrast, there was little change in adult height in some sub-Saharan African countries and in South Asia over the century of analysis. The tallest people over these 100 years are men born in the Netherlands in the last quarter of 20th century, whose average heights surpassed 182.5 cm, and the shortest were women born in Guatemala in 1896 (140.3 cm; 135.8144.8). The height differential between the tallest and shortest populations was 19-20 cm a century ago, and has remained the same for women and increased for men a century later despite substantial changes in the ranking of countries.
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| 12. |
- Bentham, James, et al.
(author)
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A century of trends in adult human height
- 2016
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In: eLIFE. - : eLife Sciences Publications Ltd. - 2050-084X. ; 5
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Being taller is associated with enhanced longevity, and higher education and earnings. We reanalysed 1472 population-based studies, with measurement of height on more than 18.6 million participants to estimate mean height for people born between 1896 and 1996 in 200 countries. The largest gain in adult height over the past century has occurred in South Korean women and Iranian men, who became 20.2 cm (95% credible interval 17.5–22.7) and 16.5 cm (13.3– 19.7) taller, respectively. In contrast, there was little change in adult height in some sub-Saharan African countries and in South Asia over the century of analysis. The tallest people over these 100 years are men born in the Netherlands in the last quarter of 20th century, whose average heights surpassed 182.5 cm, and the shortest were women born in Guatemala in 1896 (140.3 cm; 135.8– 144.8). The height differential between the tallest and shortest populations was 19-20 cm a century ago, and has remained the same for women and increased for men a century later despite substantial changes in the ranking of countries.
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| 13. |
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| 14. |
- Kaptoge, S., et al.
(author)
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World Health Organization cardiovascular disease risk charts: revised models to estimate risk in 21 global regions
- 2019
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In: Lancet Global Health. - : Elsevier BV. - 2214-109X. ; 7:10
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background To help adapt cardiovascular disease risk prediction approaches to low-income and middle-income countries, WHO has convened an effort to develop, evaluate, and illustrate revised risk models. Here, we report the derivation, validation, and illustration of the revised WHO cardiovascular disease risk prediction charts that have been adapted to the circumstances of 21 global regions. Methods In this model revision initiative, we derived 10-year risk prediction models for fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (ie, myocardial infarction and stroke) using individual participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration. Models included information on age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes, and total cholesterol. For derivation, we included participants aged 40-80 years without a known baseline history of cardiovascular disease, who were followed up until the first myocardial infarction, fatal coronary heart disease, or stroke event. We recalibrated models using age-specific and sex-specific incidences and risk factor values available from 21 global regions. For external validation, we analysed individual participant data from studies distinct from those used in model derivation. We illustrated models by analysing data on a further 123 743 individuals from surveys in 79 countries collected with the WHO STEPwise Approach to Surveillance. Findings Our risk model derivation involved 376 177 individuals from 85 cohorts, and 19 333 incident cardiovascular events recorded during 10 years of follow-up. The derived risk prediction models discriminated well in external validation cohorts (19 cohorts, 1 096 061 individuals, 25 950 cardiovascular disease events), with Harrell's C indices ranging from 0.685 (95% CI 0 . 629-0 741) to 0.833 (0 . 783-0- 882). For a given risk factor profile, we found substantial variation across global regions in the estimated 10-year predicted risk. For example, estimated cardiovascular disease risk for a 60-year-old male smoker without diabetes and with systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg and total cholesterol of 5 mmol/L ranged from 11% in Andean Latin America to 30% in central Asia. When applied to data from 79 countries (mostly low-income and middle-income countries), the proportion of individuals aged 40-64 years estimated to be at greater than 20% risk ranged from less than 1% in Uganda to more than 16% in Egypt. Interpretation We have derived, calibrated, and validated new WHO risk prediction models to estimate cardiovascular disease risk in 21 Global Burden of Disease regions. The widespread use of these models could enhance the accuracy, practicability, and sustainability of efforts to reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease worldwide. Copyright (C) 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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| 15. |
- Zhou, Bin, et al.
(author)
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Worldwide trends in diabetes since 1980: A pooled analysis of 751 population-based studies with 4.4 million participants
- 2016
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In: The Lancet. - : Elsevier B.V.. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 387:10027, s. 1513-1530
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: One of the global targets for non-communicable diseases is to halt, by 2025, the rise in the age standardised adult prevalence of diabetes at its 2010 levels. We aimed to estimate worldwide trends in diabetes, how likely it is for countries to achieve the global target, and how changes in prevalence, together with population growth and ageing, are aff ecting the number of adults with diabetes.Methods: We pooled data from population-based studies that had collected data on diabetes through measurement of its biomarkers. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in diabetes prevalence-defined as fasting plasma glucose of 7.0 mmol/L or higher, or history of diagnosis with diabetes, or use of insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs-in 200 countries and territories in 21 regions, by sex and from 1980 to 2014. We also calculated the posterior probability of meeting the global diabetes target if post-2000 trends continue.Findings: We used data from 751 studies including 4372000 adults from 146 of the 200 countries we make estimates for. Global age-standardised diabetes prevalence increased from 4.3% (95% credible interval 2.4-17.0) in 1980 to 9.0% (7.2-11.1) in 2014 in men, and from 5.0% (2.9-7.9) to 7.9% (6.4-9.7) in women. The number of adults with diabetes in the world increased from 108 million in 1980 to 422 million in 2014 (28.5% due to the rise in prevalence, 39.7% due to population growth and ageing, and 31.8% due to interaction of these two factors). Age-standardised adult diabetes prevalence in 2014 was lowest in northwestern Europe, and highest in Polynesia and Micronesia, at nearly 25%, followed by Melanesia and the Middle East and north Africa. Between 1980 and 2014 there was little change in age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adult women in continental western Europe, although crude prevalence rose because of ageing of the population. By contrast, age-standardised adult prevalence rose by 15 percentage points in men and women in Polynesia and Micronesia. In 2014, American Samoa had the highest national prevalence of diabetes (>30% in both sexes), with age-standardised adult prevalence also higher than 25% in some other islands in Polynesia and Micronesia. If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global target of halting the rise in the prevalence of diabetes by 2025 at the 2010 level worldwide is lower than 1% for men and is 1% for women. Only nine countries for men and 29 countries for women, mostly in western Europe, have a 50% or higher probability of meeting the global target.Interpretation: Since 1980, age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adults has increased, or at best remained unchanged, in every country. Together with population growth and ageing, this rise has led to a near quadrupling of the number of adults with diabetes worldwide. The burden of diabetes, both in terms of prevalence and number of adults aff ected, has increased faster in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries.
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| 16. |
- Danaei, Goodarz, et al.
(author)
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Effects of diabetes definition on global surveillance of diabetes prevalence and diagnosis: a pooled analysis of 96 population-based studies with 331288 participants
- 2015
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In: The Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology. - 2213-8595 .- 2213-8587. ; 3:8, s. 624-637
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background Diabetes has been defined on the basis of different biomarkers, including fasting plasma glucose (FPG), 2-h plasma glucose in an oral glucose tolerance test (2hOGTT), and HbA(1c). We assessed the effect of different diagnostic definitions on both the population prevalence of diabetes and the classification of previously undiagnosed individuals as having diabetes versus not having diabetes in a pooled analysis of data from population-based health examination surveys in different regions. Methods We used data from 96 population-based health examination surveys that had measured at least two of the biomarkers used for defining diabetes. Diabetes was defined using HbA(1c) (HbA(1c) >= 6 . 5% or history of diabetes diagnosis or using insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs) compared with either FPG only or FPG-or-2hOGTT definitions (FPG >= 7 . 0 mmol/L or 2hOGTT >= 11 . 1 mmol/L or history of diabetes or using insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs). We calculated diabetes prevalence, taking into account complex survey design and survey sample weights. We compared the prevalences of diabetes using different definitions graphically and by regression analyses. We calculated sensitivity and specificity of diabetes diagnosis based on HbA1c compared with diagnosis based on glucose among previously undiagnosed individuals (ie, excluding those with history of diabetes or using insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs). We calculated sensitivity and specificity in each survey, and then pooled results using a random-effects model. We assessed the sources of heterogeneity of sensitivity by meta-regressions for study characteristics selected a priori. Findings Population prevalence of diabetes based on FPG- or-2hOGTT was correlated with prevalence based on FPG alone (r= 0 . 98), but was higher by 2-6 percentage points at different prevalence levels. Prevalence based on HbA(1c) was lower than prevalence based on FPG in 42 . 8% of age-sex-survey groups and higher in another 41 . 6%; in the other 15 . 6%, the two definitions provided similar prevalence estimates. The variation across studies in the relation between glucose-based and HbA(1c)-based prevalences was partly related to participants' age, followed by natural logarithm of per person gross domestic product, the year of survey, mean BMI, and whether the survey population was national, subnational, or from specific communities. Diabetes defined as HbA(1c) 6 . 5% or more had a pooled sensitivity of 52 . 8% (95% CI 51 . 3-54 . 3%) and a pooled specificity of 99 . 74% (99 . 71-99 . 78%) compared with FPG 7 . 0 mmol/L or more for diagnosing previously undiagnosed participants; sensitivity compared with diabetes defined based on FPG-or-2hOGTT was 30 . 5% (28 . 7-32 . 3%). None of the preselected study-level characteristics explained the heterogeneity in the sensitivity of HbA(1c) versus FPG. Interpretation Different biomarkers and definitions for diabetes can provide different estimates of population prevalence of diabetes, and differentially identify people without previous diagnosis as having diabetes. Using an HbA(1c)-based definition alone in health surveys will not identify a substantial proportion of previously undiagnosed people who would be considered as having diabetes using a glucose-based test.
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| 17. |
- Rastak, Narges, et al.
(author)
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Microphysical explanation of the RH-dependent water affinity of biogenic organic aerosol and its importance for climate
- 2017
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In: Geophysical Research Letters. - 0094-8276 .- 1944-8007. ; 44:10, s. 5167-5177
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- A large fraction of atmospheric organic aerosol (OA) originates from natural emissions that are oxidized in the atmosphere to form secondary organic aerosol (SOA). Isoprene (IP) and monoterpenes (MT) are the most important precursors of SOA originating from forests. The climate impacts from OA are currently estimated through parameterizations of water uptake that drastically simplify the complexity of OA. We combine laboratory experiments, thermodynamic modeling, field observations, and climate modeling to (1) explain the molecular mechanisms behind RH-dependent SOA water-uptake with solubility and phase separation; (2) show that laboratory data on IP- and MT-SOA hygroscopicity are representative of ambient data with corresponding OA source profiles; and (3) demonstrate the sensitivity of the modeled aerosol climate effect to assumed OA water affinity. We conclude that the commonly used single-parameter hygroscopicity framework can introduce significant error when quantifying the climate effects of organic aerosol. The results highlight the need for better constraints on the overall global OA mass loadings and its molecular composition, including currently underexplored anthropogenic and marine OA sources. Plain Language Summary The interaction of airborne particulate matter (aerosols) with water is of critical importance for processes governing climate, precipitation, and public health. It also modulates the delivery and bioavailability of nutrients to terrestrial and oceanic ecosystems. We present a microphysical explanation to the humidity-dependent water uptake behavior of organic aerosol, which challenges the highly simplified theoretical descriptions used in, e.g., present climate models. With the comprehensive analysis of laboratory data using molecular models, we explain the microphysical behavior of the aerosol over the range of humidity observed in the atmosphere, in a way that has never been done before. We also demonstrate the presence of these phenomena in the ambient atmosphere from data collected in the field. We further show, using two state-of-the-art climate models, that misrepresenting the water affinity of atmospheric organic aerosol can lead to significant biases in the estimates of the anthropogenic influence on climate.
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| 18. |
- Ahlm, Lars, et al.
(author)
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Modeling the thermodynamics and kinetics of sulfuric acid-dimethylamine-water nanoparticle growth in the CLOUD chamber
- 2016
-
In: Aerosol Science and Technology. - : Informa UK Limited. - 0278-6826 .- 1521-7388. ; 50:10, s. 1017-1032
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Dimethylamine (DMA) has a stabilizing effect on sulfuric acid (SA) clusters, and the SA and DMA molecules and clusters likely play important roles in both aerosol particle formation and growth in the atmosphere. We use the monodisperse particle growth model for acid-base chemistry in nanoparticle growth (MABNAG) together with direct and indirect observations from the CLOUD4 and CLOUD7 experiments in the cosmics leaving outdoor droplets (CLOUD) chamber at CERN to investigate the size and composition evolution of freshly formed particles consisting of SA, DMA, and water as they grow to 20nm in dry diameter. Hygroscopic growth factors are measured using a nano-hygroscopicity tandem differential mobility analyzer (nano-HTDMA), which combined with simulations of particle water uptake using the thermodynamic extended-aerosol inorganics model (E-AIM) constrain the chemical composition. MABNAG predicts a particle-phase ratio between DMA and SA molecules of 1.1-1.3 for a 2nm particle and DMA gas-phase mixing ratios between 3.5 and 80 pptv. These ratios agree well with observations by an atmospheric-pressure interface time-of-flight (APi-TOF) mass spectrometer. Simulations with MABNAG, direct observations of the composition of clusters <2nm, and indirect observations of the particle composition indicate that the acidity of the nucleated particles decreases as they grow from approximate to 1 to 20nm. However, MABNAG predicts less acidic particles than suggested by the indirect estimates at 10nm diameter using the nano-HTDMA measurements, and less acidic particles than observed by a thermal desorption chemical ionization mass spectrometer (TDCIMS) at 10-30nm. Possible explanations for these discrepancies are discussed.
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| 19. |
- Butler, P. A., et al.
(author)
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The observation of vibrating pear-shapes in radon nuclei
- 2019
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Ingår i: Nature Communications. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2041-1723. ; 10:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- There is a large body of evidence that atomic nuclei can undergo octupole distortion and assume the shape of a pear. This phenomenon is important for measurements of electric-dipole moments of atoms, which would indicate CP violation and hence probe physics beyond the Standard Model of particle physics. Isotopes of both radon and radium have been identified as candidates for such measurements. Here, we observed the low-lying quantum states in 224Rn and 226Rn by accelerating beams of these radioactive nuclei. We show that radon isotopes undergo octupole vibrations but do not possess static pear-shapes in their ground states. We conclude that radon atoms provide less favourable conditions for the enhancement of a measurable atomic electric-dipole moment.
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| 20. |
- Kim, J., et al.
(författare)
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Hygroscopicity of nanoparticles produced from homogeneous nucleation in the CLOUD experiments
- 2016
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Ingår i: Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1680-7316 .- 1680-7324. ; 16:1, s. 293-304
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Sulfuric acid, amines and oxidized organics have been found to be important compounds in the nucleation and initial growth of atmospheric particles. Because of the challenges involved in determining the chemical composition of objects with very small mass, however, the properties of the freshly nucleated particles and the detailed pathways of their formation processes are still not clear. In this study,we focus on a challenging size range, i.e., particles that have grown to diameters of 10 and 15 nm following nucleation, and measure their water uptake. Water uptake is useful information for indirectly obtaining chemical composition of aerosol particles. We use a nanometer-hygroscopicity tandem differential mobility analyzer (nano-HTDMA) at sub-saturated conditions (ca. 90% relative humidity at 293 K) to measure the hygroscopicity of particles during the seventh Cosmics Leaving OUtdoor Droplets (CLOUD7) campaign performed at CERN in 2012. In CLOUD7, the hygroscopicity of nucleated nanoparticles was measured in the presence of sulfuric acid, sulfuric acid-dimethylamine, and sulfuric acid-organics derived from alpha-pinene oxidation. The hygroscopicity parameter kappa decreased with increasing particle size, indicating decreasing acidity of particles. No clear effect of the sulfuric acid concentration on the hygroscopicity of 10 nm particles produced from sulfuric acid and dimethylamine was observed, whereas the hygroscopicity of 15 nm particles sharply decreased with decreasing sulfuric acid concentrations. In particular, when the concentration of sulfuric acid was 5.1 x 10(6) molecules cm(-3) in the gas phase, and the dimethylamine mixing ratio was 11.8 ppt, the measured kappa of 15 nm particles was 0.31 +/- 0.01: close to the value reported for dimethylaminium sulfate (DMAS) (kappa(DMAS) similar to 0.28). Furthermore, the difference in kappa between sulfuric acid and sulfuric acid-dimethylamine experiments increased with increasing particle size. The kappa values of particles in the presence of sulfuric acid and organics were much smaller than those of particles in the presence of sulfuric acid and dimethylamine. This suggests that the organics produced from alpha-pinene ozonolysis play a significant role in particle growth even at 10 nm sizes.
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