| 1. |
- Forouzanfar, Mohammad H, et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.
- 2015
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In: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 386:10010, s. 2287-2323
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution.METHODS: Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol.FINDINGS: All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa.INTERPRETATION: Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 2. |
- Kassebaum, Nicholas J., et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE), 1990-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2016
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In: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1603-1658
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background Healthy life expectancy (HALE) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) provide summary measures of health across geographies and time that can inform assessments of epidemiological patterns and health system performance, help to prioritise investments in research and development, and monitor progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We aimed to provide updated HALE and DALYs for geographies worldwide and evaluate how disease burden changes with development. Methods We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost (YLLs) and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for each geography, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using the Sullivan method, which draws from age-specific death rates and YLDs per capita. We then assessed how observed levels of DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends calculated with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator constructed from measures of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Findings Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2015, with decreases in communicable, neonatal, maternal, and nutritional (Group 1) disease DALYs off set by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Much of this epidemiological transition was caused by changes in population growth and ageing, but it was accelerated by widespread improvements in SDI that also correlated strongly with the increasing importance of NCDs. Both total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most Group 1 causes significantly decreased by 2015, and although total burden climbed for the majority of NCDs, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined. Nonetheless, age-standardised DALY rates due to several high-burden NCDs (including osteoarthritis, drug use disorders, depression, diabetes, congenital birth defects, and skin, oral, and sense organ diseases) either increased or remained unchanged, leading to increases in their relative ranking in many geographies. From 2005 to 2015, HALE at birth increased by an average of 2.9 years (95% uncertainty interval 2.9-3.0) for men and 3.5 years (3.4-3.7) for women, while HALE at age 65 years improved by 0.85 years (0.78-0.92) and 1.2 years (1.1-1.3), respectively. Rising SDI was associated with consistently higher HALE and a somewhat smaller proportion of life spent with functional health loss; however, rising SDI was related to increases in total disability. Many countries and territories in central America and eastern sub-Saharan Africa had increasingly lower rates of disease burden than expected given their SDI. At the same time, a subset of geographies recorded a growing gap between observed and expected levels of DALYs, a trend driven mainly by rising burden due to war, interpersonal violence, and various NCDs. Interpretation Health is improving globally, but this means more populations are spending more time with functional health loss, an absolute expansion of morbidity. The proportion of life spent in ill health decreases somewhat with increasing SDI, a relative compression of morbidity, which supports continued efforts to elevate personal income, improve education, and limit fertility. Our analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework on which to benchmark geography-specific health performance and SDG progress. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform financial and research investments, prevention efforts, health policies, and health system improvement initiatives for all countries along the development continuum.
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| 3. |
- Naghavi, Mohsen, et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2015
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In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 385:9963, s. 117-171
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specifi c all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specifi c causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute diff erences between countries decreased but relative diff erences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative diff erences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specifi c mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.
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| 4. |
- Vos, Theo, et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2015
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In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 386:9995, s. 743-800
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Methods Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refinements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally and at the country level for 2013. In total, 35 620 distinct sources of data were used and documented to calculated estimates for 301 diseases and injuries and 2337 sequelae. The comorbidity simulation provides estimates for the number of sequelae, concurrently, by individuals by country, year, age, and sex. Disability weights were updated with the addition of new population-based survey data from four countries. Findings Disease and injury were highly prevalent; only a small fraction of individuals had no sequelae. Comorbidity rose substantially with age and in absolute terms from 1990 to 2013. Incidence of acute sequelae were predominantly infectious diseases and short-term injuries, with over 2 billion cases of upper respiratory infections and diarrhoeal disease episodes in 2013, with the notable exception of tooth pain due to permanent caries with more than 200 million incident cases in 2013. Conversely, leading chronic sequelae were largely attributable to non-communicable diseases, with prevalence estimates for asymptomatic permanent caries and tension-type headache of 2.4 billion and 1.6 billion, respectively. The distribution of the number of sequelae in populations varied widely across regions, with an expected relation between age and disease prevalence. YLDs for both sexes increased from 537.6 million in 1990 to 764.8 million in 2013 due to population growth and ageing, whereas the age-standardised rate decreased little from 114.87 per 1000 people to 110.31 per 1000 people between 1990 and 2013. Leading causes of YLDs included low back pain and major depressive disorder among the top ten causes of YLDs in every country. YLD rates per person, by major cause groups, indicated the main drivers of increases were due to musculoskeletal, mental, and substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and chronic respiratory diseases; however HIV/AIDS was a notable driver of increasing YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, the proportion of disability-adjusted life years due to YLDs increased globally from 21.1% in 1990 to 31.2% in 2013. Interpretation Ageing of the world's population is leading to a substantial increase in the numbers of individuals with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Rates of YLDs are declining much more slowly than mortality rates. The non-fatal dimensions of disease and injury will require more and more attention from health systems. The transition to non-fatal outcomes as the dominant source of burden of disease is occurring rapidly outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results can guide future health initiatives through examination of epidemiological trends and a better understanding of variation across countries.
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| 5. |
- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2016
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In: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1459-1544
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.METHODS: We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).FINDINGS: Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.INTERPRETATION: At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.
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| 6. |
- Gaudet, Mia M, et al.
(author)
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Pooled analysis of active cigarette smoking and invasive breast cancer risk in 14 cohort studies.
- 2017
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In: International Journal of Epidemiology. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0300-5771 .- 1464-3685. ; 46:3, s. 881-893
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: The 2014 US Surgeon General's report noted research gaps necessary to determine a causal relationship between active cigarette smoking and invasive breast cancer risk, including the role of alcohol consumption, timing of exposure, modification by menopausal status and heterogeneity by oestrogen receptor (ER) status.Methods: To address these issues, we pooled data from 14 cohort studies contributing 934 681 participants (36 060 invasive breast cancer cases). Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to calculate multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs).Results: Smoking duration before first birth was positively associated with risk ( P -value for trend = 2 × 10 -7 ) with the highest HR for initiation >10 years before first birth (HR = 1.18, CI 1.12-1.24). Effect modification by current alcohol consumption was evident for the association with smoking duration before first birth ( P -value=2×10 -4 ); compared with never-smoking non-drinkers, initiation >10 years before first birth was associated with risk in every category of alcohol intake, including non-drinkers (HR = 1.15, CI 1.04-1.28) and those who consumed at least three drinks per day (1.85, 1.55-2.21). Associations with smoking before first birth were limited to risk of ER+ breast cancer ( P -value for homogeneity=3×10 -3 ). Other smoking timing and duration characteristics were associated with risk even after controlling for alcohol, but were not associated with risk in non-drinkers. Effect modification by menopause was not evident.Conclusions: Smoking, particularly if initiated before first birth, was modestly associated with ER+ breast cancer risk that was not confounded by amount of adult alcohol intake. Possible links with breast cancer provide additional motivation for young women to not initiate smoking.
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| 7. |
- Harrison, Tabitha A., et al.
(author)
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Genome-wide association study by colorectal carcinoma subtype
- 2018
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In: Cancer Research. - : American Association for Cancer Research. - 0008-5472 .- 1538-7445. ; 78:13
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Journal article (other academic/artistic)abstract
- Over 50 genetic variants have been associated with colorectal cancer (CRC) risk through genome-wide association studies (GWAS), yet these variants represent only a fraction of the total estimated heritability. CRC is a heterogenous disease with diverse tumor etiology. Assessing genetic risk in molecular subtypes may help to identify novel loci and characterize genetic risk among tumor subtypes. We used microsatellite instability (MSI), an established CRC classifier with etiological and therapeutic relevance, to define CRC subtypes for GWAS analyses. We conducted a case-case analysis to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for association of genome-wide variants with microsatellite stable (MSS) versus unstable (MSI) carcinomas. We ran an inverse-variance weighted fixed-effects meta-analysis across GWAS in a discovery set of 4,163 population-based CRC cases with harmonized microsatellite instability (MSI) marker and imputed genotype data. For each analysis, we used log-additive logistic regression, adjusting for age, sex, and principal components to account for population substructure. We then followed up with replication of 102 SNPs that reached p-values less than 5x10-6 in 1,698 cases. A total of 845 (20.3%) cancer cases were microsatellite unstable in the discovery population and 174 (10.2%) were unstable in the replication population. No variants reached the genome-wide significance level of 5x10-8 in the discovery set. However, we identified two variants that reached a Bonferroni corrected p-value of 4.0x10-4 in the replication set. This included one variant in MLH1 (Replication: OR=1.74, 95% CI=1.53-1.98, p=1.63x10-5; Discovery+Replication: OR=1.45, 95% CI=1.37-1.54, p=9.76x10-11) and one variant in LOC105377645 (Replication: OR=1.70, 95% CI=1.49-1.94, p=5.13x10-5; Discovery+Replication: OR=1.45, 95% CI=1.37-1.54, p=9.76 x 10-11). The MLH1 gene is a DNA mismatch repair gene implicated in Lynch Syndrome, the hallmark of which is microsatellite instability. This is the first genome-wide scan to identify a common variant in MLH1 that is associated with CRC. This variant (minor allele frequency, MAF = 23% in this all European ancestry population) is located in the 5'-untranslated region of MLH1 and is thought to act as a long-range regulator of DCLK3, a potential tumor driver gene. The second variant, located in LOC105377645 with an MAF of 22%, is in an uncharacterized region of the genome and has not previously been implicated in cancer development. These findings suggest that accounting for molecular heterogeneity is important for discovery and characterization of genetic variants associated with CRC risk. We plan to run polytomous regression analyses, increase our sample size, and further investigate CRC subtypes by CIMP, BRAF mutation, KRAS mutation status.
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| 8. |
- Huyghe, Jeroen R., et al.
(author)
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Discovery of common and rare genetic risk variants for colorectal cancer
- 2019
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In: Nature Genetics. - : Nature Publishing Group. - 1061-4036 .- 1546-1718. ; 51:1, s. 76-
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- To further dissect the genetic architecture of colorectal cancer (CRC), we performed whole-genome sequencing of 1,439 cases and 720 controls, imputed discovered sequence variants and Haplotype Reference Consortium panel variants into genome-wide association study data, and tested for association in 34,869 cases and 29,051 controls. Findings were followed up in an additional 23,262 cases and 38,296 controls. We discovered a strongly protective 0.3% frequency variant signal at CHD1. In a combined meta-analysis of 125,478 individuals, we identified 40 new independent signals at P < 5 x 10(-8), bringing the number of known independent signals for CRC to similar to 100. New signals implicate lower-frequency variants, Kruppel-like factors, Hedgehog signaling, Hippo-YAP signaling, long noncoding RNAs and somatic drivers, and support a role for immune function. Heritability analyses suggest that CRC risk is highly polygenic, and larger, more comprehensive studies enabling rare variant analysis will improve understanding of biology underlying this risk and influence personalized screening strategies and drug development.
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| 9. |
- Johansson, Kristin, et al.
(author)
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Klimatberäkningar för paketleverans med Instabox - Slutrapport av delprojekt inom GrönBostad Stockholm
- 2019
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Reports (other academic/artistic)abstract
- Instabox offers a freight service that can deliver parcels to lockerswhere the customer can retrieve their parcel using a temporary code. As part of Instabox’s efforts to reduce the climate impact of their transports, IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute has carried out life cycle-based calculations of the climate impact from delivering parcels with Instabox’s service. Calculations of the climate savings that can be achieved when switching to alternative fuels were also made. The results showed that the largest climate savings could be achieved when changing the fuel to HVO (Hydrogenated Vegetable Oil) or electricity from photovoltaics, which can be seen in Figure 1 below. The calculations of the climate impact included a Well to Wheel approach where emissions from production and distribution of the fuel to the use of the fuel in the engine was included. Only the climate impact of the fuel has been included, while the climate impact that arises from the production of vehicles (including batteries) has not been included. Depending on which raw materials are used in the production of HVO the climate footprint can vary. It is therefore of importance to set demands towards the suppliers regarding the sustainability of the raw material. A further analysis should be made to ensure the availability of filling stations and charging stations for the various fuels. It is also important to consider the implementation of environmental zones in different municipalities from the year 2020. The implementation regulates emissions from light vehicles. This project has been financed with funds from the European Regional Development Fund within the Grön BoStad Stockholm project.
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| 10. |
- Jung, Seungyoun, et al.
(author)
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Alcohol consumption and breast cancer risk by estrogen receptor status : in a pooled analysis of 20 studies.
- 2016
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In: International Journal of Epidemiology. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0300-5771 .- 1464-3685. ; 45:3, s. 916-928
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Breast cancer aetiology may differ by estrogen receptor (ER) status. Associations of alcohol and folate intakes with risk of breast cancer defined by ER status were examined in pooled analyses of the primary data from 20 cohorts.METHODS: During a maximum of 6-18 years of follow-up of 1 089 273 women, 21 624 ER+ and 5113 ER- breast cancers were identified. Study-specific multivariable relative risks (RRs) were calculated using Cox proportional hazards regression models and then combined using a random-effects model.RESULTS: Alcohol consumption was positively associated with risk of ER+ and ER- breast cancer. The pooled multivariable RRs (95% confidence intervals) comparing ≥ 30 g/d with 0 g/day of alcohol consumption were 1.35 (1.23-1.48) for ER+ and 1.28 (1.10-1.49) for ER- breast cancer (Ptrend ≤ 0.001; Pcommon-effects by ER status: 0.57). Associations were similar for alcohol intake from beer, wine and liquor. The associations with alcohol intake did not vary significantly by total (from foods and supplements) folate intake (Pinteraction ≥ 0.26). Dietary (from foods only) and total folate intakes were not associated with risk of overall, ER+ and ER- breast cancer; pooled multivariable RRs ranged from 0.98 to 1.02 comparing extreme quintiles. Following-up US studies through only the period before mandatory folic acid fortification did not change the results. The alcohol and folate associations did not vary by tumour subtypes defined by progesterone receptor status.CONCLUSIONS: Alcohol consumption was positively associated with risk of both ER+ and ER- breast cancer, even among women with high folate intake. Folate intake was not associated with breast cancer risk.
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| 11. |
- Kitahara, Cari M., et al.
(author)
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Anthropometric Factors and Thyroid Cancer Risk by Histological Subtype : Pooled Analysis of 22 Prospective Studies
- 2016
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In: Thyroid. - : MARY ANN LIEBERT, INC. - 1050-7256 .- 1557-9077. ; 26:2, s. 306-318
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Greater height and body mass index (BMI) have been associated with an increased risk of thyroid cancer, particularly papillary carcinoma, the most common and least aggressive subtype. Few studies have evaluated these associations in relation to other, more aggressive histologic types or thyroid cancer-specific mortality. Methods: This large pooled analysis of 22 prospective studies (833,176 men and 1,260,871 women) investigated thyroid cancer incidence associated with greater height, BMI at baseline and young adulthood, and adulthood BMI gain (difference between young-adult and baseline BMI), overall and separately by sex and histological subtype using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models. Associations with thyroid cancer mortality were investigated in a subset of cohorts (578,922 men and 774,373 women) that contributed cause of death information. Results: During follow-up, 2996 incident thyroid cancers and 104 thyroid cancer deaths were identified. All anthropometric factors were positively associated with thyroid cancer incidence: hazard ratios (HR) [confidence intervals (CIs)] for height (per 5cm)=1.07 [1.04-1.10], BMI (per 5kg/m(2))=1.06 [1.02-1.10], waist circumference (per 5cm)=1.03 [1.01-1.05], young-adult BMI (per 5kg/m(2))=1.13 [1.02-1.25], and adulthood BMI gain (per 5kg/m(2))=1.07 [1.00-1.15]. Associations for baseline BMI and waist circumference were attenuated after mutual adjustment. Baseline BMI was more strongly associated with risk in men compared with women (p=0.04). Positive associations were observed for papillary, follicular, and anaplastic, but not medullary, thyroid carcinomas. Similar, but stronger, associations were observed for thyroid cancer mortality. Conclusion: The results suggest that greater height and excess adiposity throughout adulthood are associated with higher incidence of most major types of thyroid cancer, including the least common but most aggressive form, anaplastic carcinoma, and higher thyroid cancer mortality. Potential underlying biological mechanisms should be explored in future studies.
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| 12. |
- Koushik, Anita, et al.
(author)
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Intake of vitamins A, C, and E and folate and the risk of ovarian cancer in a pooled analysis of 10 cohort studies.
- 2015
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In: Cancer Causes and Control. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0957-5243 .- 1573-7225. ; 26:9, s. 1315-27
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- PURPOSE: Vitamins A, C, and E and folate have anticarcinogenic properties and thus might protect against cancer. Few known modifiable risk factors for ovarian cancer exist. We examined the associations between dietary and total (food and supplemental) vitamin intake and the risk of invasive epithelial ovarian cancer.METHODS: The primary data from 10 prospective cohort studies in North America and Europe were analyzed. Vitamin intakes were estimated from validated food frequency questionnaires in each study. Study-specific relative risks (RRs) were estimated using the Cox proportional hazards model and then combined using a random-effects model.RESULTS: Among 501,857 women, 1,973 cases of ovarian cancer occurred over a median follow-up period of 7-16 years across studies. Dietary and total intakes of each vitamin were not significantly associated with ovarian cancer risk. The pooled multivariate RRs [95% confidence intervals (CIs)] for incremental increases in total intake of each vitamin were 1.02 (0.97-1.07) for vitamin A (increment: 1,300 mcg/day), 1.01 (0.99-1.04) for vitamin C (400 mg/day), 1.02 (0.97-1.06) for vitamin E (130 mg/day), and 1.01 (0.96-1.07) for folate (250 mcg/day). Multivitamin use (vs. nonuse) was not associated with ovarian cancer risk (pooled multivariate RR = 1.00, 95% CI 0.89-1.12). Associations did not vary substantially by study, or by subgroups of the population. Greater vitamin intakes were associated with modestly higher risks of endometrioid tumors (n = 156 cases), but not with other histological types.CONCLUSION: These results suggest that consumption of vitamins A, C, and E and folate during adulthood does not play a major role in ovarian cancer risk.
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| 13. |
- Marini, Sandro, et al.
(author)
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17p12 Influences Hematoma Volume and Outcome in Spontaneous Intracerebral Hemorrhage
- 2018
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In: Stroke. - 0039-2499. ; 49:7, s. 1618-1625
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background and Purpose-Hematoma volume is an important determinant of clinical outcome in spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). We performed a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of hematoma volume with the aim of identifying novel biological pathways involved in the pathophysiology of primary brain injury in ICH. Methods-We conducted a 2-stage (discovery and replication) case-only genome-wide association study in patients with ICH of European ancestry. We utilized the admission head computed tomography to calculate hematoma volume via semiautomated computer-Assisted technique. After quality control and imputation, 7 million genetic variants were available for association testing with ICH volume, which was performed separately in lobar and nonlobar ICH cases using linear regression. Signals with P<5×10- 8 were pursued in replication and tested for association with admission Glasgow coma scale and 3-month post-ICH dichotomized (0-2 versus 3-6) modified Rankin Scale using ordinal and logistic regression, respectively. Results-The discovery phase included 394 ICH cases (228 lobar and 166 nonlobar) and identified 2 susceptibility loci: A genomic region on 22q13 encompassing PARVB (top single-nucleotide polymorphism rs9614326: β, 1.84; SE, 0.32; P=4.4×10-8) for lobar ICH volume and an intergenic region overlying numerous copy number variants on 17p12 (top single-nucleotide polymorphism rs11655160: β, 0.95; SE, 0.17; P=4.3×10-8) for nonlobar ICH volume. The replication included 240 ICH cases (71 lobar and 169 nonlobar) and corroborated the association for 17p12 (P=0.04; meta-Analysis P=2.5×10-9; heterogeneity, P=0.16) but not for 22q13 (P=0.49). In multivariable analysis, rs11655160 was also associated with lower admission Glasgow coma scale (odds ratio, 0.17; P=0.004) and increased risk of poor 3-month modified Rankin Scale (odds ratio, 1.94; P=0.045). Conclusions-We identified 17p12 as a novel susceptibility risk locus for hematoma volume, clinical severity, and functional outcome in nonlobar ICH. Replication in other ethnicities and follow-up translational studies are needed to elucidate the mechanism mediating the observed association.
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| 14. |
- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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