1. |
- Niemi, MEK, et al.
(author)
-
- 2021
-
swepub:Mat__t
|
|
2. |
- Kanai, M, et al.
(author)
-
- 2023
-
swepub:Mat__t
|
|
3. |
- Algaba, Juan-Carlos, et al.
(author)
-
Broadband Multi-wavelength Properties of M87 during the 2017 Event Horizon Telescope Campaign
- 2021
-
In: Astrophysical Journal Letters. - : American Astronomical Society. - 2041-8213 .- 2041-8205. ; 911:1
-
Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
- In 2017, the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) Collaboration succeeded in capturing the first direct image of the center of the M87 galaxy. The asymmetric ring morphology and size are consistent with theoretical expectations for a weakly accreting supermassive black hole of mass ∼6.5 × 109 M o˙. The EHTC also partnered with several international facilities in space and on the ground, to arrange an extensive, quasi-simultaneous multi-wavelength campaign. This Letter presents the results and analysis of this campaign, as well as the multi-wavelength data as a legacy data repository. We captured M87 in a historically low state, and the core flux dominates over HST-1 at high energies, making it possible to combine core flux constraints with the more spatially precise very long baseline interferometry data. We present the most complete simultaneous multi-wavelength spectrum of the active nucleus to date, and discuss the complexity and caveats of combining data from different spatial scales into one broadband spectrum. We apply two heuristic, isotropic leptonic single-zone models to provide insight into the basic source properties, but conclude that a structured jet is necessary to explain M87's spectrum. We can exclude that the simultaneous γ-ray emission is produced via inverse Compton emission in the same region producing the EHT mm-band emission, and further conclude that the γ-rays can only be produced in the inner jets (inward of HST-1) if there are strongly particle-dominated regions. Direct synchrotron emission from accelerated protons and secondaries cannot yet be excluded.
|
|
4. |
- Beal, Jacob, et al.
(author)
-
Robust estimation of bacterial cell count from optical density
- 2020
-
In: Communications Biology. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2399-3642. ; 3:1
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Optical density (OD) is widely used to estimate the density of cells in liquid culture, but cannot be compared between instruments without a standardized calibration protocol and is challenging to relate to actual cell count. We address this with an interlaboratory study comparing three simple, low-cost, and highly accessible OD calibration protocols across 244 laboratories, applied to eight strains of constitutive GFP-expressing E. coli. Based on our results, we recommend calibrating OD to estimated cell count using serial dilution of silica microspheres, which produces highly precise calibration (95.5% of residuals <1.2-fold), is easily assessed for quality control, also assesses instrument effective linear range, and can be combined with fluorescence calibration to obtain units of Molecules of Equivalent Fluorescein (MEFL) per cell, allowing direct comparison and data fusion with flow cytometry measurements: in our study, fluorescence per cell measurements showed only a 1.07-fold mean difference between plate reader and flow cytometry data.
|
|
5. |
- Boen, Rune, et al.
(author)
-
Beyond the global brain differences : intraindividual variability differences in 1q21.1 distal and 15q11.2 bp1-bp2 deletion carriers
- 2024
-
In: Biological Psychiatry. - 0006-3223 .- 1873-2402. ; 95:2, s. 147-160
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Carriers of the 1q21.1 distal and 15q11.2 BP1-BP2 copy number variants exhibit regional and global brain differences compared with noncarriers. However, interpreting regional differences is challenging if a global difference drives the regional brain differences. Intraindividual variability measures can be used to test for regional differences beyond global differences in brain structure.Methods: Magnetic resonance imaging data were used to obtain regional brain values for 1q21.1 distal deletion (n = 30) and duplication (n = 27) and 15q11.2 BP1-BP2 deletion (n = 170) and duplication (n = 243) carriers and matched noncarriers (n = 2350). Regional intra-deviation scores, i.e., the standardized difference between an individual's regional difference and global difference, were used to test for regional differences that diverge from the global difference.Results: For the 1q21.1 distal deletion carriers, cortical surface area for regions in the medial visual cortex, posterior cingulate, and temporal pole differed less and regions in the prefrontal and superior temporal cortex differed more than the global difference in cortical surface area. For the 15q11.2 BP1-BP2 deletion carriers, cortical thickness in regions in the medial visual cortex, auditory cortex, and temporal pole differed less and the prefrontal and somatosensory cortex differed more than the global difference in cortical thickness.Conclusions: We find evidence for regional effects beyond differences in global brain measures in 1q21.1 distal and 15q11.2 BP1-BP2 copy number variants. The results provide new insight into brain profiling of the 1q21.1 distal and 15q11.2 BP1-BP2 copy number variants, with the potential to increase understanding of the mechanisms involved in altered neurodevelopment.
|
|
6. |
- Abolfathi, Bela, et al.
(author)
-
The LSST DESC DC2 Simulated Sky Survey
- 2021
-
In: Astrophysical Journal Supplement Series. - : American Astronomical Society. - 0067-0049 .- 1538-4365. ; 253:31
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We describe the simulated sky survey underlying the second data challenge (DC2) carried out in preparation for analysis of the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) by the LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration (LSST DESC). Significant connections across multiple science domains will be a hallmark of LSST; the DC2 program represents a unique modeling effort that stresses this interconnectivity in a way that has not been attempted before. This effort encompasses a full end-to-end approach: starting from a large N-body simulation, through setting up LSST-like observations including realistic cadences, through image simulations, and finally processing with Rubin's LSST Science Pipelines. This last step ensures that we generate data products resembling those to be delivered by the Rubin Observatory as closely as is currently possible. The simulated DC2 sky survey covers six optical bands in a wide-fast-deep area of approximately 300 deg2, as well as a deep drilling field of approximately 1 deg2. We simulate 5 yr of the planned 10 yr survey. The DC2 sky survey has multiple purposes. First, the LSST DESC working groups can use the data set to develop a range of DESC analysis pipelines to prepare for the advent of actual data. Second, it serves as a realistic test bed for the image processing software under development for LSST by the Rubin Observatory. In particular, simulated data provide a controlled way to investigate certain image-level systematic effects. Finally, the DC2 sky survey enables the exploration of new scientific ideas in both static and time domain cosmology.
|
|
7. |
- Alexander, Stephen P. H., et al.
(author)
-
The Concise Guide to PHARMACOLOGY 2023/24: G protein-coupled receptors
- 2023
-
In: BRITISH JOURNAL OF PHARMACOLOGY. - : British pharmacological society. - 0007-1188 .- 1476-5381. ; 180
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The Concise Guide to PHARMACOLOGY 2023/24 is the sixth in this series of biennial publications. The Concise Guide provides concise overviews, mostly in tabular format, of the key properties of approximately 1800 drug targets, and about 6000 interactions with about 3900 ligands. There is an emphasis on selective pharmacology (where available), plus links to the open access knowledgebase source of drug targets and their ligands (), which provides more detailed views of target and ligand properties. Although the Concise Guide constitutes almost 500 pages, the material presented is substantially reduced compared to information and links presented on the website. It provides a permanent, citable, point-in-time record that will survive database updates. The full contents of this section can be found at . G protein-coupled receptors are one of the six major pharmacological targets into which the Guide is divided, with the others being: ion channels, nuclear hormone receptors, catalytic receptors, enzymes and transporters. These are presented with nomenclature guidance and summary information on the best available pharmacological tools, alongside key references and suggestions for further reading. The landscape format of the Concise Guide is designed to facilitate comparison of related targets from material contemporary to mid-2023, and supersedes data presented in the 2021/22, 2019/20, 2017/18, 2015/16 and 2013/14 Concise Guides and previous Guides to Receptors and Channels. It is produced in close conjunction with the Nomenclature and Standards Committee of the International Union of Basic and Clinical Pharmacology (NC-IUPHAR), therefore, providing official IUPHAR classification and nomenclature for human drug targets, where appropriate.
|
|
8. |
- Armstrong, Paul W, et al.
(author)
-
Vericiguat in Patients with Heart Failure and Reduced Ejection Fraction.
- 2020
-
In: New England Journal of Medicine. - 0028-4793 .- 1533-4406. ; 382:20, s. 1883-1893
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND: The effect of vericiguat, a novel oral soluble guanylate cyclase stimulator, in patients with heart failure and reduced ejection fraction who had recently been hospitalized or had received intravenous diuretic therapy is unclear.METHODS: In this phase 3, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial, we assigned 5050 patients with chronic heart failure (New York Heart Association class II, III, or IV) and an ejection fraction of less than 45% to receive vericiguat (target dose, 10 mg once daily) or placebo, in addition to guideline-based medical therapy. The primary outcome was a composite of death from cardiovascular causes or first hospitalization for heart failure.RESULTS: Over a median of 10.8 months, a primary-outcome event occurred in 897 of 2526 patients (35.5%) in the vericiguat group and in 972 of 2524 patients (38.5%) in the placebo group (hazard ratio, 0.90; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.82 to 0.98; P = 0.02). A total of 691 patients (27.4%) in the vericiguat group and 747 patients (29.6%) in the placebo group were hospitalized for heart failure (hazard ratio, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.81 to 1.00). Death from cardiovascular causes occurred in 414 patients (16.4%) in the vericiguat group and in 441 patients (17.5%) in the placebo group (hazard ratio, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.81 to 1.06). The composite of death from any cause or hospitalization for heart failure occurred in 957 patients (37.9%) in the vericiguat group and in 1032 patients (40.9%) in the placebo group (hazard ratio, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.83 to 0.98; P = 0.02). Symptomatic hypotension occurred in 9.1% of the patients in the vericiguat group and in 7.9% of the patients in the placebo group (P = 0.12), and syncope occurred in 4.0% of the patients in the vericiguat group and in 3.5% of the patients in the placebo group (P = 0.30).CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with high-risk heart failure, the incidence of death from cardiovascular causes or hospitalization for heart failure was lower among those who received vericiguat than among those who received placebo. (Funded by Merck Sharp & Dohme [a subsidiary of Merck] and Bayer; VICTORIA ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02861534.).
|
|
9. |
- Christopoulos, Arthur, et al.
(author)
-
THE CONCISE GUIDE TO PHARMACOLOGY 2021/22: G protein-coupled receptors.
- 2021
-
In: British journal of pharmacology. - : Wiley. - 1476-5381 .- 0007-1188. ; 178 Suppl 1
-
Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The Concise Guide to PHARMACOLOGY 2021/22 is the fifth in this series of biennial publications. The Concise Guide provides concise overviews, mostly in tabular format, of the key properties of nearly 1900 human drug targets with an emphasis on selective pharmacology (where available), plus links to the open access knowledgebase source of drug targets and their ligands (www.guidetopharmacology.org), which provides more detailed views of target and ligand properties. Although the Concise Guide constitutes over 500 pages, the material presented is substantially reduced compared to information and links presented on the website. It provides a permanent, citable, point-in-time record that will survive database updates. The full contents of this section can be found at http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/bph.15538. G protein-coupled receptors are one of the six major pharmacological targets into which the Guide is divided, with the others being: ion channels, nuclear hormone receptors, catalytic receptors, enzymes and transporters. These are presented with nomenclature guidance and summary information on the best available pharmacological tools, alongside key references and suggestions for further reading. The landscape format of the Concise Guide is designed to facilitate comparison of related targets from material contemporary to mid-2021, and supersedes data presented in the 2019/20, 2017/18, 2015/16 and 2013/14 Concise Guides and previous Guides to Receptors and Channels. It is produced in close conjunction with the Nomenclature and Standards Committee of the International Union of Basic and Clinical Pharmacology (NC-IUPHAR), therefore, providing official IUPHAR classification and nomenclature for human drug targets, where appropriate.
|
|
10. |
- Dixon, Stephanie B., et al.
(author)
-
The Future of Childhood Cancer Survivorship : Challenges and Opportunities for Continued Progress
- 2020
-
In: Pediatric Clinics of North America. - : Elsevier BV. - 0031-3955. ; 67:6, s. 1237-1251
-
Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
- As treatment evolves and the population who survive childhood cancer ages and increases in number, researchers must use novel approaches to prevent, identify and mitigate adverse effects of treatment. Future priorities include collaborative efforts to pool large cohort data to improve detection of late effects, identify late effects of novel therapies, and determine the contribution of genetic factors along with physiologic and accelerated aging among survivors. This knowledge should translate to individual risk prediction and prevention strategies. Finally, we must utilize health services research and implementation science to improve adoption of survivorship care recommendations outside of specialized pediatric oncology centers.
|
|
11. |
- Doherty, Gareth G., et al.
(author)
-
Synthesis of Uronic Acid 1-Azasugars as Putative Inhibitors of α-Iduronidase, β-Glucuronidase and Heparanase
- 2023
-
In: ChemBioChem. - : Wiley-VCH Verlagsgesellschaft. - 1439-4227 .- 1439-7633. ; 24:4
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- 1-Azasugar analogues of l-iduronic acid (l-IdoA) and d-glucuronic acid (d-GlcA) and their corresponding enantiomers have been synthesized as potential pharmacological chaperones for mucopolysaccharidosis I (MPS I), a lysosomal storage disease caused by mutations in the gene encoding α-iduronidase (IDUA). The compounds were efficiently synthesized in nine or ten steps from d- or l-arabinose, and the structures were confirmed by X-ray crystallographic analysis of key intermediates. All compounds were inactive against IDUA, although l-IdoA-configured 8 moderately inhibited β-glucuronidase (β-GLU). The d-GlcA-configured 9 was a potent inhibitor of β-GLU and a moderate inhibitor of the endo-β-glucuronidase heparanase. Co-crystallization of 9 with heparanase revealed that the endocyclic nitrogen of 9 forms close interactions with both the catalytic acid and catalytic nucleophile.
|
|
12. |
- Feng, Shaohong, et al.
(author)
-
Dense sampling of bird diversity increases power of comparative genomics
- 2020
-
In: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 587:7833
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Whole-genome sequencing projects are increasingly populating the tree of life and characterizing biodiversity(1-4). Sparse taxon sampling has previously been proposed to confound phylogenetic inference(5), and captures only a fraction of the genomic diversity. Here we report a substantial step towards the dense representation of avian phylogenetic and molecular diversity, by analysing 363 genomes from 92.4% of bird families-including 267 newly sequenced genomes produced for phase II of the Bird 10,000 Genomes (B10K) Project. We use this comparative genome dataset in combination with a pipeline that leverages a reference-free whole-genome alignment to identify orthologous regions in greater numbers than has previously been possible and to recognize genomic novelties in particular bird lineages. The densely sampled alignment provides a single-base-pair map of selection, has more than doubled the fraction of bases that are confidently predicted to be under conservation and reveals extensive patterns of weak selection in predominantly non-coding DNA. Our results demonstrate that increasing the diversity of genomes used in comparative studies can reveal more shared and lineage-specific variation, and improve the investigation of genomic characteristics. We anticipate that this genomic resource will offer new perspectives on evolutionary processes in cross-species comparative analyses and assist in efforts to conserve species. A dataset of the genomes of 363 species from the Bird 10,000 Genomes Project shows increased power to detect shared and lineage-specific variation, demonstrating the importance of phylogenetically diverse taxon sampling in whole-genome sequencing.
|
|
13. |
- Marquis-Gravel, Guillaume, et al.
(author)
-
Post-Discharge Bleeding and Mortality Following Acute Coronary Syndromes With or Without PCI
- 2020
-
In: Journal of the American College of Cardiology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0735-1097 .- 1558-3597. ; 76:2, s. 162-171
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND The long-term prognostic impact of post-discharge bleeding in the unique population of patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) treated without percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) remains unexplored.OBJECTIVES The aim of this study was to assess the association between post-discharge bleeding and subsequent mortality after ACS according to index strategy (PCI or no PCI) and to contrast with the association between post-discharge myocardial infarction (MI) and subsequent mortality.METHODS In a harmonized dataset of 4 multicenter randomized trials (APPRAISE-2 [Apixaban for Prevention of Acute Ischemic Events-2], PLATO [Study of Platelet Inhibition and Patient Outcomes], TRACER [Thrombin Receptor Antagonist for Clinical Event Reduction in Acute Coronary Syndrome], and TRILOGY ACS [Platelet Inhibition to Clarify the Optimal Strategy to Medically Manage Acute Coronary Syndromes]), the association between post-discharge noncoronary artery bypass graft-related GUSTO (Global Use of Strategies to Open Occluded Coronary Arteries) moderate, severe, or life-threatening bleeding (landmark 7 days post-ACS) and subsequent all-cause mortality was evaluated in a time-updated Cox proportional hazards analysis. Interaction with index treatment strategy was assessed. Results were contrasted with risk for mortality following post-discharge MI.RESULTS Among 45,011 participants, 1,133 experienced post-discharge bleeding events (2.6 per 100 patient-years), and 2,149 died during follow-up. The risk for mortality was significantly higher <30 days (adjusted hazard ratio: 15.7; 95% confidence interval: 12.3 to 20.0) and 30 days to 12 months (adjusted hazard ratio: 2.7; 95% confidence interval: 2.1 to 3.4) after bleeding, and this association was consistent in participants treated with or without PCI for their index ACS (p for interaction = 0.240). The time-related association between post-discharge bleeding and mortality was similar to the association between MI and subsequent mortality in participants treated with and without PCI (p for interaction = 0.696).CONCLUSIONS Post-discharge bleeding after ACS is associated with a similar increase in subsequent all-cause mortality in participants treated with or without PCI and has an equivalent prognostic impact as post-discharge MI.
|
|
14. |
- Sonderby, Ida E., et al.
(author)
-
Dose response of the 16p11.2 distal copy number variant on intracranial volume and basal ganglia
- 2020
-
In: Molecular Psychiatry. - : Nature Publishing Group. - 1359-4184 .- 1476-5578. ; 25:3, s. 584-602
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Carriers of large recurrent copy number variants (CNVs) have a higher risk of developing neurodevelopmental disorders. The 16p11.2 distal CNV predisposes carriers to e.g., autism spectrum disorder and schizophrenia. We compared subcortical brain volumes of 12 16p11.2 distal deletion and 12 duplication carriers to 6882 non-carriers from the large-scale brain Magnetic Resonance Imaging collaboration, ENIGMA-CNV. After stringent CNV calling procedures, and standardized FreeSurfer image analysis, we found negative dose-response associations with copy number on intracranial volume and on regional caudate, pallidum and putamen volumes (β = −0.71 to −1.37; P < 0.0005). In an independent sample, consistent results were obtained, with significant effects in the pallidum (β = −0.95, P = 0.0042). The two data sets combined showed significant negative dose-response for the accumbens, caudate, pallidum, putamen and ICV (P = 0.0032, 8.9 × 10−6, 1.7 × 10−9, 3.5 × 10−12 and 1.0 × 10−4, respectively). Full scale IQ was lower in both deletion and duplication carriers compared to non-carriers. This is the first brain MRI study of the impact of the 16p11.2 distal CNV, and we demonstrate a specific effect on subcortical brain structures, suggesting a neuropathological pattern underlying the neurodevelopmental syndromes.
|
|
15. |
- Sønderby, Ida E., et al.
(author)
-
1q21.1 distal copy number variants are associated with cerebral and cognitive alterations in humans
- 2021
-
In: Translational Psychiatry. - : Nature Publishing Group. - 2158-3188. ; 11:1
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Low-frequency 1q21.1 distal deletion and duplication copy number variant (CNV) carriers are predisposed to multiple neurodevelopmental disorders, including schizophrenia, autism and intellectual disability. Human carriers display a high prevalence of micro- and macrocephaly in deletion and duplication carriers, respectively. The underlying brain structural diversity remains largely unknown. We systematically called CNVs in 38 cohorts from the large-scale ENIGMA-CNV collaboration and the UK Biobank and identified 28 1q21.1 distal deletion and 22 duplication carriers and 37,088 non-carriers (48% male) derived from 15 distinct magnetic resonance imaging scanner sites. With standardized methods, we compared subcortical and cortical brain measures (all) and cognitive performance (UK Biobank only) between carrier groups also testing for mediation of brain structure on cognition. We identified positive dosage effects of copy number on intracranial volume (ICV) and total cortical surface area, with the largest effects in frontal and cingulate cortices, and negative dosage effects on caudate and hippocampal volumes. The carriers displayed distinct cognitive deficit profiles in cognitive tasks from the UK Biobank with intermediate decreases in duplication carriers and somewhat larger in deletion carriers-the latter potentially mediated by ICV or cortical surface area. These results shed light on pathobiological mechanisms of neurodevelopmental disorders, by demonstrating gene dose effect on specific brain structures and effect on cognitive function.
|
|
16. |
- van der Meer, Dennis, et al.
(author)
-
Association of Copy Number Variation of the 15q11.2 BP1-BP2 Region With Cortical and Subcortical Morphology and Cognition
- 2020
-
In: JAMA psychiatry. - : American Medical Association (AMA). - 2168-6238 .- 2168-622X. ; 77:4, s. 420-430
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Importance: Recurrent microdeletions and duplications in the genomic region 15q11.2 between breakpoints 1 (BP1) and 2 (BP2) are associated with neurodevelopmental disorders. These structural variants are present in 0.5% to 1.0% of the population, making 15q11.2 BP1-BP2 the site of the most prevalent known pathogenic copy number variation (CNV). It is unknown to what extent this CNV influences brain structure and affects cognitive abilities.Objective: To determine the association of the 15q11.2 BP1-BP2 deletion and duplication CNVs with cortical and subcortical brain morphology and cognitive task performance.Design, Setting, and Participants: In this genetic association study, T1-weighted brain magnetic resonance imaging were combined with genetic data from the ENIGMA-CNV consortium and the UK Biobank, with a replication cohort from Iceland. In total, 203 deletion carriers, 45 247 noncarriers, and 306 duplication carriers were included. Data were collected from August 2015 to April 2019, and data were analyzed from September 2018 to September 2019.Main Outcomes and Measures: The associations of the CNV with global and regional measures of surface area and cortical thickness as well as subcortical volumes were investigated, correcting for age, age2, sex, scanner, and intracranial volume. Additionally, measures of cognitive ability were analyzed in the full UK Biobank cohort.Results: Of 45 756 included individuals, the mean (SD) age was 55.8 (18.3) years, and 23 754 (51.9%) were female. Compared with noncarriers, deletion carriers had a lower surface area (Cohen d = -0.41; SE, 0.08; P = 4.9 × 10-8), thicker cortex (Cohen d = 0.36; SE, 0.07; P = 1.3 × 10-7), and a smaller nucleus accumbens (Cohen d = -0.27; SE, 0.07; P = 7.3 × 10-5). There was also a significant negative dose response on cortical thickness (β = -0.24; SE, 0.05; P = 6.8 × 10-7). Regional cortical analyses showed a localization of the effects to the frontal, cingulate, and parietal lobes. Further, cognitive ability was lower for deletion carriers compared with noncarriers on 5 of 7 tasks.Conclusions and Relevance: These findings, from the largest CNV neuroimaging study to date, provide evidence that 15q11.2 BP1-BP2 structural variation is associated with brain morphology and cognition, with deletion carriers being particularly affected. The pattern of results fits with known molecular functions of genes in the 15q11.2 BP1-BP2 region and suggests involvement of these genes in neuronal plasticity. These neurobiological effects likely contribute to the association of this CNV with neurodevelopmental disorders.
|
|
17. |
- Wunderling, Nico, et al.
(author)
-
Global warming overshoots increase risks of climate tipping cascades in a network model
- 2023
-
In: Nature Climate Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1758-678X .- 1758-6798. ; 13:1, s. 75-82
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Current policies and actions make it very likely, at least temporarily, to overshoot the Paris climate targets of 1.5–<2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels. If this global warming range is exceeded, potential tipping elements such as the Greenland Ice Sheet and Amazon rainforest may be at increasing risk of crossing critical thresholds. This raises the question of how much this risk is amplified by increasing overshoot magnitude and duration. Here we investigate the danger for tipping under a range of temperature overshoot scenarios using a stylized network model of four interacting climate tipping elements. Our model analysis reveals that temporary overshoots can increase tipping risks by up to 72% compared with non-overshoot scenarios, even when the long-term equilibrium temperature stabilizes within the Paris range. Our results suggest that avoiding high-end climate risks is possible only for low-temperature overshoots and if long-term temperatures stabilize at or below today’s levels of global warming.
|
|