| 1. |
- Bjørn, Anders, et al.
(author)
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Challenges and opportunities towards improved application of the planetary boundary for land-system change in life cycle assessment of products
- 2019
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In: Science of the Total Environment. - : Elsevier BV. - 0048-9697 .- 1879-1026. ; 696
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Life cycle assessment (LCA) can be used to translate the planetary boundaries (PBs) concept to the scale of decisions related to products. Existing PB-LCA methods convert quantified resource use and emissions to changes in the values of PB control variables. However, the control variable for the Land-system change PB, “area of forested land remaining”, is not suitable for use in LCA, since it is expressed at the beginning of an impact pathway and only covers forest biomes. At the same time, LCA approaches for modelling the biogeophysical impacts of land use and land-use change are immature and any interactions with other types of environmental impacts are lagging.Here, we propose how the assessment of Land-system change in PB-LCA can be improved. First, we introduce two control variables for application in LCA; surface air temperature and precipitation, and we identify corresponding provisional threshold values associated with state shifts in four comprehensive biome categories. Second, we propose simplified approaches suitable for modelling the impact of land use and land-use change in product life cycles on the values of these two control variables. Third, we propose how to quantify interactions between the PBs for Land-system change, Climate change and Freshwater use for a PB-LCA method. Finally, we identify several research needs to facilitate full implementation of our proposed approach.
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| 2. |
- Kehoe, Laura, et al.
(author)
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Make EU trade with Brazil sustainable
- 2019
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In: Science. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 0036-8075 .- 1095-9203. ; 364:6438, s. 341-
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Journal article (other academic/artistic)
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| 3. |
- Ahlström, Hanna, et al.
(author)
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Governance, polycentricity and the global nitrogen and phosphorus cycles
- 2018
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In: Environmental Science and Policy. - : Elsevier BV. - 1462-9011 .- 1873-6416. ; 79, s. 54-65
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Global change and governance scholars frequently highlight polycentricity as a feature of resilient governance, but both theoretical and empirical knowledge about features and outcomes of the concept are lacking at the global scale. Here we investigate the structural properties of governance of global nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) cycles, two processes in the 'planetary boundaries' framework. We have used a mixed-methods approach to institutional analysis, integrating polycentric theory with social network theory in environmental policy and legal studies. We include an actor collaboration case study, the Global Partnership on Nutrient Management (GPNM), to explore governance challenges associated with global N and P cycles. We set the scope for selection of relevant legal instruments using an overview of global N and P flows between Earth system 'components' (land, water, atmosphere, oceans, biosphere) and the major anthropogenic N and P perturbations. Our network analysis of citations of global N and P governance exposes the structural patterns of a loose network among the principal institutions and actors, in which legal instruments of the European Union serve as key cross-scale and cross-sectoral 'gateways'. We show that the current international regimes in place for regulating N- and P-related issues represent a gap in governance at the global level. In addition, we are able to show that the emergence of GPNM provides synergies in this context of insufficient governance. The GPNM can be viewed as a structure of polycentric governance as it involves deliberate attempts for mutual adjustments and self-organised action.
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| 4. |
- Butz, Christoph, et al.
(author)
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Towards defining an environmental investment universe within planetary boundaries
- 2018
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In: Sustainability Science. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1862-4065 .- 1862-4057. ; 13:4, s. 1031-1044
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Science is increasingly able to identify precautionary boundaries for critical Earth system processes, and the business world provides societies with important means for adaptive responses to global environmental risks. In turn, investors provide vital leverage on companies. Here, we report on our transdisciplinary science/business experience in applying the planetary boundaries framework (sensu Rockstrom et al., Ecol Soc 14, 2009) to define a boundary-compatible investment universe and analyse the environmental compatibility of companies. We translate the planetary boundaries into limits for resource use and emissions per unit of economic value creation, using indicators from the Carnegie Mellon University EIO-LCA database. The resulting precautionary 'economic intensities' can be compared with the current levels of companies' environmental impact. This necessarily involves simplifying assumptions, for which dialogue between biophysical science, corporate sustainability and investment perspectives is needed. The simplifications mean that our translation is transparent from both biophysical and financial viewpoints, and allow our approach to be responsive to future developments in scientific insights about planetary boundaries. Our approach enables both sub-industries and individual companies to be screened against the planetary boundaries. Our preliminary application of this screening to the entire background universe of all investable stock-listed companies gives a selectivity of two orders of magnitude for an investment universe of environmentally attractive stocks. We discuss implications for an expanded role of environmental change science in the development of thematic equity funds.
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| 5. |
- Collste, David, 1988-
(author)
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Navigating towards the Safe Operating Space: Systems thinking and the SDGs
- 2019
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Licentiate thesis (other academic/artistic)abstract
- Can the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals be reached within the Planetary Boundaries? This licentiate thesis aims to explore this question by navigating towards the safe operating space, as defined by the planetary boundaries, through integrating issues, disciplines, scales, models and stakeholders. The thesis is a milestone within the European Union financed project “Adaptation to a New Economic Reality (AdaptEconII)”. Besides the SDGs and planetary boundaries, I embark from a curiosity about systems and their dynamics and explore the interface of system dynamics formalism and global social-ecological systems resilience applications. A practical aim is to also inform the SDG implementation process by guiding cross-scale SDG implementation through offering modeling insights (the Human Needs Paper II) and a stakeholder approach for goal implementation (the African Dialogue Paper I). In the African Dialogue paper, I present the first stakeholder-based approach of visioning and exploring Sustainable Development Pathways to meet the SDGs. I embark from the Three horizons framework - a participatory approach which involves participants in visioning and unpacking complex issues to elicit views about future aspirations, current challenges and pathways to addressing and achieving them. The paper first introduces how the Three horizons approach was built on, and adapted to, the 2030 Agenda. Together with the co-authors, I developed the method to enable addressing a spectrum of challenges for SDG implementation and incorporate alternative narratives with a wholistic view of the 2030 Agenda’s implementation. We wanted to facilitate the discovery of a few alternative pathways and include a discussion on global pathways to contrast them against. In the paper, I discuss the benefits and challenges of the adapted approach in relation to its implementation in an illustrative case study, the 2018 African Dialogue on The World In 2050, which deliberated on future pathways for agriculture and food systems in Africa. The process enabled discussions on commonalities and differences between a diversity of future visions for Africa, grounded in different cultural contexts, and their implications for the global scale. All four stakeholder groups included the importance of youth and women empowerment, and the need for climate adaptation to reach the SDGs in their pathways. The groups diverged when it came to whether future population growth should be seen as positive or negative for African futures, and whether agribusinesses or cooperatives should dominate the agricultural sector. The developed frame, Three Horizons for SDGs (3H4SDG), represents a versatile approach for a participatory design of future pathways to reach SDGs, inclusive to marginalized voices and facilitating a context-sensitive exploration of alternative futures. In the Human Needs paper, I accentuate that sustainability means meeting human needs now, and in the future. The 2030 Agenda’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) represent global ambitions to meet human needs, but prospects are unclear for meeting SDGs without worsening environmental deterioration. In constructing a world model to explore SDG-related risks to Earth system resilience, I examined historic correlations, 1980-2015, between production measured as income per person and advancement on the human-needs goals, SDGs 1-7, for seven world regions and the world as a whole. In the paper I present uniform patterns of saturation for all regions above a clear income threshold – at a level where human needs and capabilities are met, consistent with happiness economics and the Easterlin paradox. I observe stark differences with respect to scale: the world as a whole behaves differently from all its seven regions. And I argue that these differences between historical regional patterns give vital hints on how SDGs can be reached within Earth’s safe operating space.
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| 6. |
- Collste, David, et al.
(author)
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Policy coherence to achieve the SDGs : using integrated simulation models to assess effective policies
- 2017
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In: Sustainability Science. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1862-4065 .- 1862-4057. ; 12:6, s. 921-931
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Coherently addressing the 17 Sustainable Development Goals requires planning tools that guide policy makers. Given the integrative nature of the SDGs, we believe that integrative modelling techniques are especially useful for this purpose. In this paper, we present and demonstrate the use of the new System Dynamics based iSDG family of models. We use a national model for Tanzania to analyse impacts of substantial investments in photovoltaic capacity. Our focus is on the impacts on three SDGs: SDG 3 on healthy lives and well-being, SDG 4 on education, and SDG 7 on energy. In our simulations, the investments in photovoltaics positively affect life expectancy, years of schooling and access to electricity. More importantly, the progress on these dimensions synergizes and leads to broader system-wide impacts. While this one national example illustrates the anticipated impact of an intervention in one specific area on several SDGs, the iSDG model can be used to support similar analyses for policies related to all the 17 SDGs, both individually and concurrently. We believe that integrated models such as the iSDG model can bring interlinks to the forefront and facilitate a shift to a discussion on development grounded in systems thinking.
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| 7. |
- Downing, Andrea S., et al.
(author)
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Matching scope, purpose and uses of planetary boundaries science
- 2019
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In: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9326. ; 14:7
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Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: The Planetary Boundaries concept (PBc) has emerged as a key global sustainability concept in international sustainable development arenas. Initially presented as an agenda for global sustainability research, it now shows potential for sustainability governance. Weuse the fact that it is widely cited in scientific literature (>3500 citations) and an extensively studied concept to analyse how it has been used and developed since its first publication. Design: From the literature that cites the PBc, we select those articles that have the terms 'planetary boundaries' or 'safe operating space' in either title, abstract or keywords. Weassume that this literature substantively engages with and develops the PBc. Results: Wefind that 6% of the citing literature engages with the concept. Within this fraction of the literature we distinguish commentaries-that discuss the context and challenges to implementing the PBc, articles that develop the core biogeophysical concept and articles that apply the concept by translating to sub-global scales and by adding a human component to it. Applied literature adds to the concept by explicitly including society through perspectives of impacts, needs, aspirations and behaviours. Discussion: Literature applying the concept does not yet include the more complex, diverse, cultural and behavioural facet of humanity that is implied in commentary literature. Wesuggest there is need for a positive framing of sustainability goals-as a Safe Operating Space rather than boundaries. Key scientific challenges include distinguishing generalised from context-specific knowledge, clarifying which processes are generalizable and which are scalable, and explicitly applying complex systems' knowledge in the application and development of the PBc. We envisage that opportunities to address these challenges will arise when more human social dimensions are integrated, as we learn to feed the global sustainability vision with a plurality of bottom-up realisations of sustainability.
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| 8. |
- Häyhä, Tiina, et al.
(author)
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From Planetary Boundaries to national fair shares of the global safe operating space - How can the scales be bridged?
- 2016
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In: Global Environmental Change. - : Elsevier BV. - 0959-3780 .- 1872-9495. ; 40, s. 60-72
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The planetary boundaries framework proposes quantitative global limits to the anthropogenic perturbation of crucial Earth system processes, and thus marks out a planetary safe operating space for human activities. Yet, decisions regarding resource use and emissions are mostly made at less aggregated scales, by national and sub-national governments, businesses, and other local actors. To operationalize the planetary boundaries concept, the boundaries need to be translated into and aligned with targets that are relevant at these decision-making scales. In this paper, we develop a framework that addresses the biophysical, socio-economic, and ethical dimensions of bridging across scales, to provide a consistently applicable approach for translating the planetary boundaries into national-level fair shares of Earth's safe operating space. We discuss our findings in the context of previous studies and their implications for future analyses and, policymaking. In this way, we link the planetary boundaries framework to widely-applied operational and policy concepts for more robust strong sustainability decision-making.
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| 9. |
- Keys, Patrick W., et al.
(author)
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Anthropocene risk
- 2019
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In: Nature Sustainability. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2398-9629. ; 2:8, s. 667-673
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The potential consequences of cross-scale systemic environmental risks with global effects are increasing. We argue that current descriptions of globally connected systemic risk poorly capture the role of human-environment interactions. This creates a bias towards solutions that ignore the new realities of the Anthropocene. We develop an integrated concept of what we denote Anthropocene risk-that is, risks that: emerge from human-driven processes; interact with global social-ecological connectivity; and exhibit complex, cross-scale relationships. To illustrate this, we use four cases: moisture recycling teleconnections, aquaculture and stranded assets, biome migration in the Sahel, and sea-level rise and megacities. We discuss the implications of Anthropocene risk across several research frontiers, particularly in the context of supranational power, environmental and social externalities and possible future Anthropocene risk governance. We conclude that decision makers must navigate this new epoch with new tools, and that Anthropocene risk contributes conceptual guidance towards a more sustainable and just future.
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| 10. |
- Lade, Steven J., et al.
(author)
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Analytically tractable climate-carbon cycle feedbacks under 21st century anthropogenic forcing
- 2018
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In: Earth System Dynamics. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 2190-4979 .- 2190-4987. ; 9:2, s. 507-523
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Changes to climate-carbon cycle feedbacks may significantly affect the Earth system's response to greenhouse gas emissions. These feedbacks are usually analysed from numerical output of complex and arguably opaque Earth system models. Here, we construct a stylised global climate-carbon cycle model, test its output against comprehensive Earth system models, and investigate the strengths of its climate-carbon cycle feedbacks analytically. The analytical expressions we obtain aid understanding of carbon cycle feedbacks and the operation of the carbon cycle. Specific results include that different feedback formalisms measure fundamentally the same climate-carbon cycle processes; temperature dependence of the solubility pump, biological pump, and CO2 solubility all contribute approximately equally to the ocean climate-carbon feedback; and concentration-carbon feedbacks may be more sensitive to future climate change than climate-carbon feedbacks. Simple models such as that developed here also provide workbenches for simple but mechanistically based explorations of Earth system processes, such as interactions and feedbacks between the planetary boundaries, that are currently too uncertain to be included in comprehensive Earth system models.
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| 11. |
- Steffen, Will, et al.
(author)
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Planetary boundaries : Guiding human development on a changing planet
- 2015
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In: Science. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 0036-8075 .- 1095-9203. ; 347:6223
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The planetary boundaries framework defines a safe operating space for humanity based on the intrinsic biophysical processes that regulate the stability of the Earth system. Here, we revise and update the planetary boundary framework, with a focus on the underpinning biophysical science, based on targeted input from expert research communities and on more general scientific advances over the past 5 years. Several of the boundaries now have a two-tier approach, reflecting the importance of cross-scale interactions and the regional-level heterogeneity of the processes that underpin the boundaries. Two core boundaries-climate change and biosphere integrity-have been identified, each of which has the potential on its own to drive the Earth system into a new state should they be substantially and persistently transgressed.
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| 12. |
- Steffen, Will, et al.
(author)
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Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene
- 2018
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In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. - : Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. - 0027-8424 .- 1091-6490. ; 115:33, s. 8252-8259
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We explore the risk that self-reinforcing feedbacks could push the Earth System toward a planetary threshold that, if crossed, could prevent stabilization of the climate at intermediate temperature rises and cause continued warming on a Hothouse Earth pathway even as human emissions are reduced. Crossing the threshold would lead to a much higher global average temperature than any interglacial in the past 1.2 million years and to sea levels significantly higher than at any time in the Holocene. We examine the evidence that such a threshold might exist and where it might be. If the threshold is crossed, the resulting trajectory would likely cause serious disruptions to ecosystems, society, and economies. Collective human action is required to steer the Earth System away from a potential threshold and stabilize it in a habitable interglacial-like state. Such action entails stewardship of the entire Earth System-biosphere, climate, and societies-and could include decarbonization of the global economy, enhancement of biosphere carbon sinks, behavioral changes, technological innovations, new governance arrangements, and transformed social values.
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| 13. |
- van Vuuren, Detlef P., et al.
(author)
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Horses for courses : analytical tools to explore planetary boundaries
- 2016
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In: Earth System Dynamics. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 2190-4979 .- 2190-4987. ; 7:1, s. 267-279
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- There is a need for more integrated research on sustainable development and global environmental change. In this paper, we focus on the planetary boundaries framework to provide a systematic categorization of key research questions in relation to avoiding severe global environmental degradation. The four categories of key questions are those that relate to (1) the underlying processes and selection of key indicators for planetary boundaries, (2) understanding the impacts of environmental pressure and connections between different types of impacts, (3) better understanding of different response strategies to avoid further degradation, and (4) the available instruments to implement such strategies. Clearly, different categories of scientific disciplines and associated model types exist that can accommodate answering these questions. We identify the strength and weaknesses of different research areas in relation to the question categories, focusing specifically on different types of models. We discuss that more interdisciplinary research is need to increase our understanding by better linking human drivers and social and biophysical impacts. This requires better collaboration between relevant disciplines (associated with the model types), either by exchanging information or by fully linking or integrating them. As fully integrated models can become too complex, the appropriate type of model (the racehorse) should be applied for answering the target research question (the race course).
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| 14. |
- Villarrubia-Gómez, Patricia, et al.
(author)
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Marine plastic pollution as a planetary boundary threat - The drifting piece in the sustainability puzzle
- 2018
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In: Marine Policy. - : Elsevier BV. - 0308-597X .- 1872-9460. ; 96, s. 213-220
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The exponential increase in the use of plastic in modern society and the inadequate management of the resulting waste have led to its accumulation in the marine environment. There is increasing evidence of numerous mechanisms by which marine plastic pollution is causing effects across successive levels of biological organization. This will unavoidably impact ecological communities and ecosystem functions. A remaining question to be answered is if the concentration of plastic in the ocean, today or in the future, will reach levels above a critical threshold leading to global effects in vital Earth-system processes, thus granting the consideration of marine plastic pollution as a key component of the planetary boundary threat associated with chemical pollutants. Possible answers to this question are explored by reviewing and evaluating existing knowledge of the effects of plastic pollution in marine ecosystems and the 'core planetary boundaries', biosphere integrity and climate change. The irreversibility and global ubiquity of marine plastic pollution mean that two essential conditions for a planetary boundary threat are already met. The Earth system consequences of plastic pollution are still uncertain, but pathways and mechanisms for thresholds and global systemic change are identified. Irrespective of the recognition of plastic as a novel entity in the planetary boundaries framework, it is certain that marine plastic pollution is closely intertwined with global processes to a point that deserves careful management and prevention.
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| 15. |
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| 16. |
- Yearworth, Michael, et al.
(author)
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Contested Modelling : a Critical Examination of Expert Modelling in Sustainability
- 2016
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In: Systems research and behavioral science. - : Wiley. - 1092-7026 .- 1099-1743. ; 33:1, s. 45-63
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We discuss the role of expert modelling in sustainability using a framework designed to improve the effectiveness of the modelling process. Based on the development of a set of reflective questions that can be used at certain key stages in the lifecycle of projects developing such models, we discuss how using the framework would lead to improvements in the coupling of the process of expert modelling with the process of intervention, which is implied by the existence of the expert modelling project. This questioning pushes the development of a framework beyond considerations of ontology and epistemology into issues of axiology and praxis; extending the notion of contested modelling beyond the narrow scientific sense to a wider social setting. Our framework has been developed through a case study analysis of the effectiveness of four research initiatives that have used expert modelling to address the complexity of intervention in a sustainability context.
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