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- Di Baldassarre, Giuliano, et al.
(author)
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Multiple hazards and risk perceptions over time : the availability heuristic in Italy and Sweden under COVID-19
- 2021
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In: Natural hazards and earth system sciences. - : Copernicus Publications. - 1561-8633 .- 1684-9981. ; 21:11, s. 3439-3447
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The severe impact of global crises, such as COVID-19 and climate change, is plausibly reshaping the way in which people perceive risks. In this paper, we examine and compare how global crises and local disasters influence public perceptions of multiple hazards in Italy and Sweden. To this end, we integrate information about the occurrence of hazardous events with the results of two nationwide surveys. These included more than 4000 participants and were conducted in two different phases of the COVID-19 pandemic corresponding to low (August 2020) and high (November 2020) levels of infection rates. We found that, in both countries, people are more worried about risks related to experienced events. This is in line with the cognitive process known as the availability heuristic: individuals assess the risk associated with a given hazard based on how easily it comes to their mind. Epidemics, for example, are perceived as less likely and more impactful in Italy compared to Sweden. This outcome can be explained by cross-country differences in the impact of, as well as governmental responses to, COVID-19. Notwithstanding the ongoing pandemic, people in both Italy and Sweden are highly concerned about climate change, and they rank it as the most likely threat.
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| 2. |
- Franceschinis, Cristiano, et al.
(author)
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Heterogeneity in flood risk awareness : A longitudinal, latent class model approach
- 2021
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In: Journal of Hydrology. - : Elsevier. - 0022-1694 .- 1879-2707. ; 599
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Insights into the heterogeneity of human behaviours and attitudes toward risk require the understanding of the role played by a plurality of factors, such as risk awareness and trust. However, our knowledge of the interplay of these factors is limited, as is our knowledge of the patterns in risk attitudes and behaviours and their evolution over time. This study explores the interplay between attitudes and behaviours related to flood risk awareness and structural flood protection in two communities in the Eastern Italian Alps, and how they changed over time. To this end, a questionnaire was submitted to a total of 420 residents, in the year 2005 (N = 200) and 2018 (N = 220), and then analysed using Latent Class Analysis. No floods were recorded in the area during this period. The results show that there is a group of residents characterized by low risk awareness and high trust in structural flood protection. Such individuals are likely to live in urban - rather than mountain - communities and are characterized by a lack of or limited experience with floods. They are also prone to believe that such events will not happen in the future. In 2005, this group represented less than half of the sample, but its size substantially increased in 2018. This result has strong implications for local risk managers, because this group of residents is less risk aware than the others and they may deserve special attention and targeted messages in flood risk communication campaigns. This and other results are discussed, including the potential development of generalizable models to provide emergency and risk managers with tools to unveil risk awareness patterns and to tailor risk communication actions to citizens attitudes and behaviours. The paper ends with some considerations about the need not only to better understand but also to address diversity in flood risk awareness.
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| 3. |
- Mondino, Elena, et al.
(author)
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Longitudinal survey data for diversifying temporal dynamics in flood risk modelling
- 2021
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In: Natural hazards and earth system sciences. - : Copernicus Publications. - 1561-8633 .- 1684-9981. ; 21:9, s. 2811-2828
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Scholars have unravelled the complexities and underlying uncertainties in coupled human and water systems in various fields and disciplines. These complexities, however, are not always reflected in the way in which the dynamics of human–water systems are modelled. One reason is the lack of social data time series, which may be provided by longitudinal surveys. Here, we show the value of collecting longitudinal survey data to enrich sociohydrological modelling of flood risk. To illustrate, we compare and contrast two different approaches (repeated cross-sectional and panel) for collecting longitudinal data and explore changes in flood risk awareness and preparedness in a municipality hit by a flash flood in 2018. We found that risk awareness has not changed significantly in the timeframe under study (1 year). Perceived preparedness increased only among those respondents who suffered low damage during the flood event. We also found gender differences across both approaches for most of the variables explored. Lastly, we argue that results that are consistent across the two approaches can be used for the parametrisation of sociohydrological models. We posit that there is a need to enhance the representation of socio-demographic heterogeneity in modelling human–water systems in order to better support risk management.
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