| 1. |
- Bara, Corinne, 1981-, et al.
(author)
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Your Reputation Precedes You : Ceasefires and Cooperative Credibility During Civil Conflict
- 2023
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In: Journal of Conflict Resolution. - : Sage Publications. - 0022-0027 .- 1552-8766. ; 67:7-8, s. 1325-1349
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- How does the state's behavior in negotiations with one non-state group influence the behavior of other non-state actors? We argue that the dynamics of different conflicts within the same country are interdependent, and that a state develops a reputation through its interactions with each conflict party. This reputation provides a valuable source of information that other groups use to judge the state's cooperative intentions. When a state develops a reputation for cooperation, this increases the likelihood of (indirect) reciprocation from other groups. More specifically, we argue that when states enter into (and honor) a ceasefire with one rebel group, they demonstrate a credible reputation for cooperation. A credible reputation for cooperation, we posit, increases the likelihood that other conflict parties enter into ceasefires with the state, or that they de-escalate their military activities. We test our claims using the new civil conflict ceasefire dataset and find support for our argument.
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| 2. |
- Brosché, Johan, 1978-, et al.
(author)
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What They Are Fighting For : Introducing the UCDP Conflict Issues Dataset
- 2023
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In: Journal of Conflict Resolution. - : Sage Publications. - 0022-0027 .- 1552-8766.
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Although conflict issues – the stated goals of actors engaged in conflict – hold a privileged position in many theoretical explanations of the occurrence, dynamics, and resolution of civil war, global issue data are scarce beyond datasets that focus on specific thematic areas. This article aims to bring issues into the forefront of civil war scholarship by presenting the UCDP Conflict Issue Dataset (CID). This global yearly dataset contains 14 832 conflict issues – divided, at the most disaggregated level, into 120 sub-categories – raised by armed non-state groups involved in intrastate armed conflict in 1989-2017. By bringing issues back in, the UCDP CID provides opportunities to reevaluate several central questions about the onset, duration, intensity, and resolution of civil war.
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| 3. |
- Clayton, Govinda, et al.
(author)
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Introducing the ETH/PRIO Civil Conflict Ceasefire Dataset
- 2023
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In: Journal of Conflict Resolution. - : Sage Publications. - 0022-0027 .- 1552-8766. ; 67:7-8, s. 1430-1451
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This article introduces the Civil Conflict CeaseFire (CF) dataset. The CF data covers all ceasefires in civil conflict between 1989 and 2020, including multilateral, bilateral and unilateral arrangements, ranging from verbal arrangements to detailed written agreements. In total, the CF data includes 2202 ceasefires across 66 countries and 109 civil conflicts. The data feature information on the actors involved in the ceasefire, and the class, purpose, coverage, and end date of the ceasefire. The CF data provide an empirical basis to assess the conditions that give rise to ceasefires, how ceasefires affect the dynamics of conflict, and the role of a ceasefire in the peace process. This article presents the rationale underlying the data collection, the coding rules and procedures, and how this data can be used for analysis.
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| 4. |
- Dafoe, Allan, et al.
(author)
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Coercion and Provocation
- 2021
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In: Journal of Conflict Resolution. - : Sage Publications. - 0022-0027 .- 1552-8766. ; 65:2-3, s. 372-402
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Threats and force, by increasing expected costs, should reduce the target's resolve. However, they often seem to increase resolve. We label this phenomenon provocation. We review instances of apparent provocation in interstate relations and offer a theory based on the logic of reputation and honor. We also consider alternative explanations: confounding or mis-imputation of resolve; revelation of information, character, or capabilities; or generalized sunk cost reasoning. Using survey experiments, we systematically evaluate whether provocation exists and what may account for it. We employ design-based causal inference techniques-a hypothetical natural experiment, a placebo treatment, and ruling out mediators-to evaluate our key hypotheses. We find strong evidence of provocation and suggestive evidence that it arises from considerations of honor, vengeance, and reputation. Our experimental design minimizes the risk that this result arises from our alternative explanations.
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| 5. |
- Di Salvatore, J., et al.
(author)
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Introducing the Peacekeeping Mandates (PEMA) Dataset
- 2022
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In: Journal of Conflict Resolution. - : SAGE Publications. - 0022-0027 .- 1552-8766. ; 66:4-5, s. 924-951
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Research on UN peacekeeping operations has established that operations' size and composition affect peacekeeping success. However, we lack systematic data for evaluating whether variation in tasks assigned to UN peacekeeping mandates matters and what explains different configurations of mandated tasks in the first place. Drawing on UN Security Council resolutions that establish, extend, or revise mandates of 27 UN peacekeeping operations in Africa in the 1991-2017 period, the Peacekeeping Mandates (PEMA) dataset fills this gap. It records 41 distinct tasks, ranging from disarmament to reconciliation and electoral support. For each task, the PEMA dataset also distinguishes between three modalities of engagement (monitoring, assisting, and securing) and whether the task is requested or merely encouraged. To illustrate the usefulness of our data, we re-examine Hultman, Kathman, and Shannon's (2013) analysis of operations' ability to protect civilians. Our results show that host governments and rebel groups respond differently to civilian protection mandates.
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| 6. |
- Eck, Kristine, 1978-, et al.
(author)
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Policing and Political Violence
- 2021
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In: Journal of Conflict Resolution. - : Sage Publications. - 0022-0027 .- 1552-8766. ; 65:10, s. 1641-1656
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The police are often key actors in conflict processes, yet there is little research on their role in the production of political violence. Previous research provides us with a limited understanding of the part the police play in preventing or mitigating the onset or escalation of conflict, in patterns of repression and resistance during conflict, and in the durability of peace after conflicts are resolved. By unpacking the role of state security actors and asking how the state assigns tasks among them—as well as the consequences of these decisions—we generate new research paths for scholars of conflict and policing. We review existing research in the field, highlighting recent findings, including those from the articles in this special issue. We conclude by arguing that the fields of policing and conflict research have much to gain from each other and by discussing future directions for policing research in conflict studies.
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| 7. |
- Fjelde, Hanne, 1978-, et al.
(author)
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Introducing the Deadly Electoral Conflict Dataset (DECO)
- 2022
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In: Journal of Conflict Resolution. - : Sage Publications. - 0022-0027 .- 1552-8766. ; 66:1, s. 162-185
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This article introduces the Deadly Electoral Conflict dataset (DECO): a global, georeferenced event dataset on electoral violence with lethal outcomes from 1989 to 2017. DECO allows for empirical evaluation of theories relating to the timing, location, and dynamics of deadly electoral violence. By clearly distinguishing electoral violence from related (and sometimes concurrent) instances of organized violence, DECO is particularly suitable for investigating how election-related violence is connected to other forms of violent political contention. In the article, we present the theoretical and methodological underpinnings of the data collection and discuss empirical patterns that emerge in DECO. We also demonstrate one potential use of DECO by examining the association between United Nations peacekeeping forces and the prevalence of deadly electoral violence in conflict-affected countries.
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| 8. |
- Gibler, Douglas M., et al.
(author)
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The Militarized Interstate Confrontation Dataset, 1816-2014
- 2024
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In: Journal of Conflict Resolution. - 0022-0027 .- 1552-8766. ; 68:2-3, s. 562-586
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We use this article to introduce the Militarized Interstate Confrontation (MIC) dataset, 1816-2014—a new dataset for international conflict with a host of innovative features. The MIC data corrects thousands of errors in existing interstate conflict data and provides fatality ranges for all conflicts, with meaningful fatality estimates and no missing fatality values. Thus, the MIC data fixes missing data problems that have precluded researchers from analyzing escalation and related issues because of the lack of integrated conflict and war data. We also identify and distribute separate datasets for state-versus-citizen actions that are protest-dependent. These are attacks on shipping, fishing boats, and rebels, which were previously included in the data because the sovereign of those private citizens protested. We discuss our systematic search for new conflict cases and the 108 new conflicts we found, and we provide analyses and summaries that demonstrate the usefulness of our MIC data. Finally, we use our new data to create the first ever dataset of truly dyadic, directed dyad-year data, with highest actions and fatalities that vary appropriately within conflicts by both year and dyad. We believe these datasets will be useful for a host of studies but especially those interested in how conflicts evolve over time.
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| 9. |
- Hall, Jonathan, 1979-, et al.
(author)
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The Impact of War Exposure on Morality : Evidence From the Battle of Mosul
- 2023
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In: Journal of Conflict Resolution. - : Sage Publications. - 0022-0027 .- 1552-8766.
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The Battle of Mosul (2016–2017) was one of the most grueling urban warfare campaigns in recent memory. The fighting quickly concentrated in West Mosul, where civilians prevented by the Islamic State from leaving their homes experienced airstrikes and indiscriminate shelling by government forces. Utilizing the as-if-randomness of severe damage or destruction of people’s homes, this paper examines the impact of war exposure on the endorsement of moral foundations among a large and diverse sample of Mosul residents (N = 1027). Home damage increased binding morality but had a larger impact on individualizing morality, heightening concerns about fairness and protection from harm. A survey experiment in which the sectarian identity of the target was randomly assigned further revealed a strong association between individualizing morality and parochial altruism. Challenging conventional wisdom, both individualizing and binding morality reinforce group cohesion in ways that are functionally adaptive and responsive to the damage wrought by war.
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| 10. |
- Hegre, Håvard, 1964-, et al.
(author)
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Civil Society and the Democratic Peace
- 2020
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In: Journal of Conflict Resolution. - : SAGE PUBLICATIONS INC. - 0022-0027 .- 1552-8766. ; 64:1, s. 32-62
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We theorize that three distinct structures of democratic constraint explain why more democratic dyads do not engage in military conflict with each other. We build on earlier theories that focused on electoral and horizontal accountability. We add a new dimension-the social accountability provided by an active civil society. Using several new measures from the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) data set, we stringently test these explanations. We find social accountability to be the strongest and most consistent predictor of nonbelligerence in dyads, that horizontal accountability is still important, but that the independent role of electoral accountability has been somewhat overstated. However, we do find that social and electoral accountability work strongly together, to make for an even greater effect. The finding is robust to a range of specifications and in the face of controls for contending theories that challenge the democratic peace (e.g., the capitalist and territorial peace theories).
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| 11. |
- Hellmüller, Sara, et al.
(author)
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What is in a Mandate? Introducing the UN Peace Mission Mandates Dataset
- 2024
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In: Journal of Conflict Resolution. - : Sage Publications. - 0022-0027 .- 1552-8766. ; 68:1, s. 166-192
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- UN peace missions are constantly evolving. Yet, we lack a detailed understanding of the shifting types and objectives of peace missions beyond broad categorizations that distinguish for instance between observer, traditional, multidimensional, and peace enforcement missions. To address this gap, we present the UN Peace Mission Mandates (UNPMM) dataset. With global coverage, 30 years of data between 1991 and 2020, a broad scope that includes peacekeeping and political missions, and information on 41 mandate tasks, the UNPMM represents one of the most detailed and up-to-date datasets on UN peace mission mandates. We use it to highlight how mission types, objectives, and specific tasks have changed since the end of the Cold War, and to analyze what factors influence the kind of missions the UN is willing to authorize. The descriptive statistics and empirical analysis reaffirm the need for a greater disaggregation of data on UN peace missions and their mandates.
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| 12. |
- Kreft, Anne-Kathrin, 1983, et al.
(author)
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Gendered Conflict, Gendered Outcomes: The Politicization of Sexual Violence and Quota Adoption
- 2020
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In: Journal of Conflict Resolution. - : SAGE Publications. - 0022-0027 .- 1552-8766. ; 64:2-3
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Sexual violence (SV) in conflict is increasingly politicized at both the international and domestic levels. Where SV in conflict is prevalent, we argue international actors perceive gender to be salient and push for a gendered response. Simultaneously, women mobilize politically in response to the threat to their security that conflict-related SV constitutes, making demands for greater representation in politics with the goal of improving societal conditions for themselves. Jointly, we theorize the pressures from above and below push governments in conflict-affected states toward adopting gender policies. We test this theoretical framework in the case of gender quota adoption. We find that states with prevalent wartime SV indeed adopt gender quotas sooner and at higher rates than states experiencing other civil conflicts and than states experiencing no conflict in the same period. These gender quotas, we further show, are not mere window dressing but actually increase women’s legislative representation.
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| 13. |
- Leon-Ablan, Gabriel, et al.
(author)
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Gentrification and Social Unrest : The Blitz, Urban Change and the 2011 London Riots
- 2024
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In: Journal of Conflict Resolution. - 0022-0027 .- 1552-8766. ; 68:2-3, s. 484-508
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Many of the world’s major cities have recently seen large episodes of social unrest. What is the relationship between the changes these cities have experienced, particularly in the form of gentrification, and urban riots? We address this question by examining how local gentrification affected participation in the 2011 London riots. We use an instrumental variable strategy that exploits exogenous variation in the amount of local destruction caused by the Blitz; this is a strong predictor of local gentrification in London in 2001–2011. We find that gentrifying neighborhoods had a lower participation rate than other areas; this was a result of changes in the type of resident (a composition effect) and in the context in which the residents made their participation decisions (a contextual effect). Our findings are consistent with qualitative evidence from the United Kingdom and the United States, and highlight the effect that urban change can have on social order.
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| 14. |
- Lundgren, Magnus, 1976, et al.
(author)
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Local Ceasefires and De-escalation : Evidence From the Syrian Civil War
- 2023
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In: Journal of Conflict Resolution. - : Sage Publications. - 0022-0027 .- 1552-8766. ; 67:7-8, s. 1350-1375
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Local ceasefire agreements are prevalent in modern civil wars, but we know little about their impact. This study analyzes geo-referenced data on 145 local ceasefire agreements declared during the Syrian Civil War, 2011-2019, exploring their short- and long-term effects on the intensity of armed violence. Drawing on scholarship on gradual confidence-building processes, we theorize the conditions under which local ceasefire agreements may generate trust and reduce conflict intensity. Using interrupted time-series analysis and spatial panel regression, we examine factors relating to the design and strategic context of ceasefire agreements. We find that local ceasefire agreements can trigger both escalation and de-escalation in the short term. De-escalatory outcomes are more likely in the long-term, when ceasefire signatories share a history of previous interaction, and when ceasefires are implemented in a stepwise fashion. We also find evidence of spatial diffusion: local ceasefire agreements in one area reduce conflict intensity in neighboring areas.
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| 15. |
- Lundgren, Magnus, 1976, et al.
(author)
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Politics or Performance? Leadership Accountability in UN Peacekeeping
- 2022
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In: Journal of Conflict Resolution. - : SAGE Publications. - 0022-0027 .- 1552-8766. ; 66:1, s. 32-60
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- International organizations face a trade-off between the need to replace poorly performing leaders and the imperative of preserving the loyalty of influential or pivotal member states. This performance-politics dilemma is particularly acute in UN peacekeeping. Leaders of peacekeeping operations are responsible for ensuring that peacekeepers implement mandates, maintain discipline, and stay safe. Yet, if leaders fail to do so, is the UN Secretariat able and willing to replace them? We investigate newly collected data on the tenure of 238 civilian and military leaders in thirty-eight peacekeeping operations, 1978 to 2017. We find that the tenures of civilian leaders are insensitive to performance, but that military leaders in poorly performing missions are more likely to be replaced. We also find evidence that political considerations complicate the UN’s efforts at accountability. Holding mission performance constant, military leaders from countries that are powerful or contribute large numbers of troops stay longer in post.
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| 16. |
- Reis, Jose M., et al.
(author)
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Media Attention and Compliance With the European Court of Human Rights
- 2024
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In: Journal of Conflict Resolution. - : Sage Publications. - 0022-0027 .- 1552-8766.
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- International courts lack traditional enforcement mechanisms. Scholars theorize that compliance with human rights rulings is therefore often driven by domestic processes, including political mobilization and parliamentary agenda setting. A necessary condition underlying these processes is attention to the rulings which is in part expected to be mediated by media attention. However, these conditions have not been explicitly addressed by the existing compliance literature. In this paper, we assess the impact of media attention to rulings by the European Court of the Human Rights on the likelihood of their implementation, using a novel dataset of case-specific news coverage. Exploiting exogenous variation in media attention caused by competing newsworthy events, we find that the probability of compliance increases, the more coverage a ruling receives. Our findings indicate that domestic news media play a key role for compliance with international courts.
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| 17. |
- Svensson, Isak, 1974-, et al.
(author)
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Violent Political Protest : Introducing a New Uppsala Conflict Data Program Data Set on Organized Violence, 1989-2019
- 2022
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In: Journal of Conflict Resolution. - : Sage Publications. - 0022-0027 .- 1552-8766. ; 66:9, s. 1703-1730
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This article presents the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) "Violent Political Protest"€ (VPP) data set: a new -standalone- category of organized violence, which complements, and is compatible with, UCDP's three categories of organized violence: one-sided violence, non-state, and state-based conflict. It consists of violent political protests, with at least 25 casualties during a year, in which informally organized civilians challenge states over governmental or territorial issues. We describe the data collection process, and demonstrate the data's use with empirical analyses. Violent political protest is present globally, but most prevalent in the Middle East and Africa, and increasingly common over time. Violent political protest frequently co-occurs with state-based conflicts, but rarely due to conflict escalation. We explore if this is due to shared contexts, and find that gender inequality increases the likelihood of VPP onset, similar to state-based conflicts. Finally, we identify avenues for future research, including using VPP to assist in a more precise and complete analysis of organized violence.
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| 18. |
- von Uexkull, Nina, et al.
(author)
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Drought, Resilience, and Support for Violence : Household Survey Evidence from DR Congo
- 2020
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In: Journal of Conflict Resolution. - : SAGE Publications Inc. - 0022-0027 .- 1552-8766. ; 64:10, s. 1994-2021
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The effects of climate variability and change on security are debated. While this topic has received considerable attention in both policy circles and academia, the microlevel pathways and conditions under which climatic shocks increase conflict risks are poorly understood. We suggest that household resilience provides one key to understanding these relationships. Using novel household survey data from two conflict-affected regions in Eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, we study variation in the support for violence related to reported exposure to drought and resilience metrics. Using comprehensive multifaceted objective and subjective indicators of resilience, we find that less resilient respondents who report having experienced drought and associated losses are more likely to be supportive of the use of political violence. In contrast, our findings suggest that there is no general association between reporting drought exposure and support for violence.
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| 19. |
- Hansson, Oskar, et al.
(author)
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The Alzheimer's Association international guidelines for handling of cerebrospinal fluid for routine clinical measurements of amyloid β and tau
- 2021
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In: Alzheimer's and Dementia. - : Wiley. - 1552-5260 .- 1552-5279. ; 17:9, s. 1575-1582
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The core cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) Alzheimer's disease (AD) biomarkers amyloid beta (Aβ42 and Aβ40), total tau, and phosphorylated tau, have been extensively clinically validated, with very high diagnostic performance for AD, including the early phases of the disease. However, between-center differences in pre-analytical procedures may contribute to variability in measurements across laboratories. To resolve this issue, a workgroup was led by the Alzheimer's Association with experts from both academia and industry. The aim of the group was to develop a simplified and standardized pre-analytical protocol for CSF collection and handling before analysis for routine clinical use, and ultimately to ensure high diagnostic performance and minimize patient misclassification rates. Widespread application of the protocol would help minimize variability in measurements, which would facilitate the implementation of unified cut-off levels across laboratories, and foster the use of CSF biomarkers in AD diagnostics for the benefit of the patients.
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