| 1. |
- Aad, G, et al.
(author)
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- 2015
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swepub:Mat__t
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| 2. |
- Wang, H. D., et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
- 2017
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In: Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 390:10100, s. 1084-1150
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background Detailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify exemplars for best practice. To accomplish this, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) estimated age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality between 1970 and 2016 for 195 countries and territories and at the subnational level for the five countries with a population greater than 200 million in 2016. Methods We have evaluated how well civil registration systems captured deaths using a set of demographic methods called death distribution methods for adults and from consideration of survey and census data for children younger than 5 years. We generated an overall assessment of completeness of registration of deaths by dividing registered deaths in each location-year by our estimate of all-age deaths generated from our overall estimation process. For 163 locations, including subnational units in countries with a population greater than 200 million with complete vital registration (VR) systems, our estimates were largely driven by the observed data, with corrections for small fluctuations in numbers and estimation for recent years where there were lags in data reporting (lags were variable by location, generally between 1 year and 6 years). For other locations, we took advantage of different data sources available to measure under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) using complete birth histories, summary birth histories, and incomplete VR with adjustments; we measured adult mortality rate (the probability of death in individuals aged 15-60 years) using adjusted incomplete VR, sibling histories, and household death recall. We used the U5MR and adult mortality rate, together with crude death rate due to HIV in the GBD model life table system, to estimate age-specific and sex-specific death rates for each location-year. Using various international databases, we identified fatal discontinuities, which we defined as increases in the death rate of more than one death per million, resulting from conflict and terrorism, natural disasters, major transport or technological accidents, and a subset of epidemic infectious diseases; these were added to estimates in the relevant years. In 47 countries with an identified peak adult prevalence for HIV/AIDS of more than 0.5% and where VR systems were less than 65% complete, we informed our estimates of age-sex-specific mortality using the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP)-Spectrum model fitted to national HIV/AIDS prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance systems. We estimated stillbirths, early neonatal, late neonatal, and childhood mortality using both survey and VR data in spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models. We estimated abridged life tables for all location-years using age-specific death rates. We grouped locations into development quintiles based on the Sociodemographic Index (SDI) and analysed mortality trends by quintile. Using spline regression, we estimated the expected mortality rate for each age-sex group as a function of SDI. We identified countries with higher life expectancy than expected by comparing observed life expectancy to anticipated life expectancy on the basis of development status alone. Findings Completeness in the registration of deaths increased from 28% in 1970 to a peak of 45% in 2013; completeness was lower after 2013 because of lags in reporting. Total deaths in children younger than 5 years decreased from 1970 to 2016, and slower decreases occurred at ages 5-24 years. By contrast, numbers of adult deaths increased in each 5-year age bracket above the age of 25 years. The distribution of annualised rates of change in age-specific mortality rate differed over the period 2000 to 2016 compared with earlier decades: increasing annualised rates of change were less frequent, although rising annualised rates of change still occurred in some locations, particularly for adolescent and younger adult age groups. Rates of stillbirths and under-5 mortality both decreased globally from 1970. Evidence for global convergence of death rates was mixed; although the absolute difference between age-standardised death rates narrowed between countries at the lowest and highest levels of SDI, the ratio of these death rates-a measure of relative inequality-increased slightly. There was a strong shift between 1970 and 2016 toward higher life expectancy, most noticeably at higher levels of SDI. Among countries with populations greater than 1 million in 2016, life expectancy at birth was highest for women in Japan, at 86.9 years (95% UI 86.7-87.2), and for men in Singapore, at 81.3 years (78.8-83.7) in 2016. Male life expectancy was generally lower than female life expectancy between 1970 and 2016, and the gap between male and female life expectancy increased with progression to higher levels of SDI. Some countries with exceptional health performance in 1990 in terms of the difference in observed to expected life expectancy at birth had slower progress on the same measure in 2016. Interpretation Globally, mortality rates have decreased across all age groups over the past five decades, with the largest improvements occurring among children younger than 5 years. However, at the national level, considerable heterogeneity remains in terms of both level and rate of changes in age-specific mortality; increases in mortality for certain age groups occurred in some locations. We found evidence that the absolute gap between countries in age-specific death rates has declined, although the relative gap for some age-sex groups increased. Countries that now lead in terms of having higher observed life expectancy than that expected on the basis of development alone, or locations that have either increased this advantage or rapidly decreased the deficit from expected levels, could provide insight into the means to accelerate progress in nations where progress has stalled. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
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| 3. |
- Hay, S. I., et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 333 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016 : A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
- 2017
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In: The Lancet. - : Lancet Publishing Group. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 390:10100, s. 1260-1344
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Measurement of changes in health across locations is useful to compare and contrast changing epidemiological patterns against health system performance and identify specific needs for resource allocation in research, policy development, and programme decision making. Using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we drew from two widely used summary measures to monitor such changes in population health: disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE). We used these measures to track trends and benchmark progress compared with expected trends on the basis of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Methods: We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost and years of life lived with disability for each location, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using age-specific death rates and years of life lived with disability per capita. We explored how DALYs and HALE difered from expected trends when compared with the SDI: the geometric mean of income per person, educational attainment in the population older than age 15 years, and total fertility rate. Findings: The highest globally observed HALE at birth for both women and men was in Singapore, at 75·2 years (95% uncertainty interval 71·9-78·6) for females and 72·0 years (68·8-75·1) for males. The lowest for females was in the Central African Republic (45·6 years [42·0-49·5]) and for males was in Lesotho (41·5 years [39·0-44·0]). From 1990 to 2016, global HALE increased by an average of 6·24 years (5·97-6·48) for both sexes combined. Global HALE increased by 6·04 years (5·74-6·27) for males and 6·49 years (6·08-6·77) for females, whereas HALE at age 65 years increased by 1·78 years (1·61-1·93) for males and 1·96 years (1·69-2·13) for females. Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2016 (-2·3% [-5·9 to 0·9]), with decreases in communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) disease DALYs ofset by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). The exemplars, calculated as the fve lowest ratios of observed to expected age-standardised DALY rates in 2016, were Nicaragua, Costa Rica, the Maldives, Peru, and Israel. The leading three causes of DALYs globally were ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and lower respiratory infections, comprising 16·1% of all DALYs. Total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most CMNN causes decreased from 1990 to 2016. Conversely, the total DALY burden rose for most NCDs; however, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined globally. Interpretation: At a global level, DALYs and HALE continue to show improvements. At the same time, we observe that many populations are facing growing functional health loss. Rising SDI was associated with increases in cumulative years of life lived with disability and decreases in CMNN DALYs ofset by increased NCD DALYs. Relative compression of morbidity highlights the importance of continued health interventions, which has changed in most locations in pace with the gross domestic product per person, education, and family planning. The analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework with which to benchmark location-specific health performance. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform health policies, health system improvement initiatives, targeted prevention eforts, and development assistance for health, including fnancial and research investments for all countries, regardless of their level of sociodemographic development. The presence of countries that substantially outperform others suggests the need for increased scrutiny for proven examples of best practices, which can help to extend gains, whereas the presence of underperforming countries suggests the need for devotion of extra attention to health systems that need more robust support. © The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
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| 4. |
- Burstein, R., et al.
(author)
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Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017
- 2019
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In: Nature. - : Nature Publishing Group. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 574:7778, s. 353-358
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2—to end preventable child deaths by 2030—we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000–2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations. © 2019, The Author(s).
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| 5. |
- Fullman, N., et al.
(author)
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Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
- 2017
-
In: Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 390:10100, s. 1423-1459
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background The UN's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are grounded in the global ambition of "leaving no one behind". Understanding today's gains and gaps for the health-related SDGs is essential for decision makers as they aim to improve the health of populations. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016), we measured 37 of the 50 health-related SDG indicators over the period 1990-2016 for 188 countries, and then on the basis of these past trends, we projected indicators to 2030. Methods We used standardised GBD 2016 methods to measure 37 health-related indicators from 1990 to 2016, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2015. We substantially revised the universal health coverage (UHC) measure, which focuses on coverage of essential health services, to also represent personal health-care access and quality for several non-communicable diseases. We transformed each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2.5th percentile estimated between 1990 and 2030, and 100 as the 97.5th percentile during that time. An index representing all 37 health-related SDG indicators was constructed by taking the geometric mean of scaled indicators by target. On the basis of past trends, we produced projections of indicator values, using a weighted average of the indicator and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2016 with weights for each annual rate of change based on out-of-sample validity. 24 of the currently measured health-related SDG indicators have defined SDG targets, against which we assessed attainment. Findings Globally, the median health-related SDG index was 56.7 (IQR 31.9-66.8) in 2016 and country-level performance markedly varied, with Singapore (86.8, 95% uncertainty interval 84.6-88.9), Iceland (86.0, 84.1-87.6), and Sweden (85.6, 81.8-87.8) having the highest levels in 2016 and Afghanistan (10.9, 9.6-11.9), the Central African Republic (11.0, 8.8-13.8), and Somalia (11.3, 9.5-13.1) recording the lowest. Between 2000 and 2016, notable improvements in the UHC index were achieved by several countries, including Cambodia, Rwanda, Equatorial Guinea, Laos, Turkey, and China; however, a number of countries, such as Lesotho and the Central African Republic, but also high-income countries, such as the USA, showed minimal gains. Based on projections of past trends, the median number of SDG targets attained in 2030 was five (IQR 2-8) of the 24 defined targets currently measured. Globally, projected target attainment considerably varied by SDG indicator, ranging from more than 60% of countries projected to reach targets for under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria, to less than 5% of countries projected to achieve targets linked to 11 indicator targets, including those for childhood overweight, tuberculosis, and road injury mortality. For several of the health-related SDGs, meeting defined targets hinges upon substantially faster progress than what most countries have achieved in the past. Interpretation GBD 2016 provides an updated and expanded evidence base on where the world currently stands in terms of the health-related SDGs. Our improved measure of UHC offers a basis to monitor the expansion of health services necessary to meet the SDGs. Based on past rates of progress, many places are facing challenges in meeting defined health-related SDG targets, particularly among countries that are the worst off. In view of the early stages of SDG implementation, however, opportunity remains to take actions to accelerate progress, as shown by the catalytic effects of adopting the Millennium Development Goals after 2000. With the SDGs' broader, bolder development agenda, multisectoral commitments and investments are vital to make the health-related SDGs within reach of all populations. Copyright The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article published under the CC BY 4.0 license.
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| 6. |
- Naghavi, M., et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
- 2017
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In: Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 390:10100, s. 1151-1210
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background Monitoring levels and trends in premature mortality is crucial to understanding how societies can address prominent sources of early death. The Global Burden of Disease 2016 Study (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 264 causes in 195 locations from 1980 to 2016. This assessment includes evaluation of the expected epidemiological transition with changes in development and where local patterns deviate from these trends. Methods We estimated cause-specific deaths and years of life lost (YLLs) by age, sex, geography, and year. YLLs were calculated from the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. We used the GBD cause of death database composed of: vital registration (VR) data corrected for under-registration and garbage coding; national and subnational verbal autopsy (VA) studies corrected for garbage coding; and other sources including surveys and surveillance systems for specific causes such as maternal mortality. To facilitate assessment of quality, we reported on the fraction of deaths assigned to GBD Level 1 or Level 2 causes that cannot be underlying causes of death (major garbage codes) by location and year. Based on completeness, garbage coding, cause list detail, and time periods covered, we provided an overall data quality rating for each location with scores ranging from 0 stars (worst) to 5 stars (best). We used robust statistical methods including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) to generate estimates for each location, year, age, and sex. We assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific deaths in relation to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of average income per capita, educational attainment, and total fertility, with locations grouped into quintiles by SDI. Relative to GBD 2015, we expanded the GBD cause hierarchy by 18 causes of death for GBD 2016. Findings The quality of available data varied by location. Data quality in 25 countries rated in the highest category (5 stars), while 48, 30, 21, and 44 countries were rated at each of the succeeding data quality levels. Vital registration or verbal autopsy data were not available in 27 countries, resulting in the assignment of a zero value for data quality. Deaths from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) represented 72.3% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 71.2-73.2) of deaths in 2016 with 19.3% (18.5-20.4) of deaths in that year occurring from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases and a further 8.43% (8.00-8.67) from injuries. Although age-standardised rates of death from NCDs decreased globally between 2006 and 2016, total numbers of these deaths increased; both numbers and age-standardised rates of death from CMNN causes decreased in the decade 2006-16-age-standardised rates of deaths from injuries decreased but total numbers varied little. In 2016, the three leading global causes of death in children under-5 were lower respiratory infections, neonatal preterm birth complications, and neonatal encephalopathy due to birth asphyxia and trauma, combined resulting in 1.80 million deaths (95% UI 1.59 million to 1.89 million). Between 1990 and 2016, a profound shift toward deaths at older ages occurred with a 178% (95% UI 176-181) increase in deaths in ages 90-94 years and a 210% (208-212) increase in deaths older than age 95 years. The ten leading causes by rates of age-standardised YLL significantly decreased from 2006 to 2016 (median annualised rate of change was a decrease of 2.89%); the median annualised rate of change for all other causes was lower (a decrease of 1.59%) during the same interval. Globally, the five leading causes of total YLLs in 2016 were cardiovascular diseases; diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; neoplasms; neonatal disorders; and HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis. At a finer level of disaggregation within cause groupings, the ten leading causes of total YLLs in 2016 were ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, road injuries, malaria, neonatal preterm birth complications, HIV/AIDS, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and neonatal encephalopathy due to birth asphyxia and trauma. Ischaemic heart disease was the leading cause of total YLLs in 113 countries for men and 97 countries for women. Comparisons of observed levels of YLLs by countries, relative to the level of YLLs expected on the basis of SDI alone, highlighted distinct regional patterns including the greater than expected level of YLLs from malaria and from HIV/AIDS across sub-Saharan Africa; diabetes mellitus, especially in Oceania; interpersonal violence, notably within Latin America and the Caribbean; and cardiomyopathy and myocarditis, particularly in eastern and central Europe. The level of YLLs from ischaemic heart disease was less than expected in 117 of 195 locations. Other leading causes of YLLs for which YLLs were notably lower than expected included neonatal preterm birth complications in many locations in both south Asia and southeast Asia, and cerebrovascular disease in western Europe. Interpretation The past 37 years have featured declining rates of communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases across all quintiles of SDI, with faster than expected gains for many locations relative to their SDI. A global shift towards deaths at older ages suggests success in reducing many causes of early death. YLLs have increased globally for causes such as diabetes mellitus or some neoplasms, and in some locations for causes such as drug use disorders, and conflict and terrorism. Increasing levels of YLLs might reflect outcomes from conditions that required high levels of care but for which effective treatments remain elusive, potentially increasing costs to health systems. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
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| 9. |
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| 10. |
- Singh, B. P., et al.
(author)
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Experimental access to Transition Distribution Amplitudes with the PANDA experiment at FAIR
- 2015
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In: European Physical Journal A. Hadrons and Nuclei. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1434-6001 .- 1434-601X. ; 51:8
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Baryon-to-meson Transition Distribution Amplitudes (TDAs) encoding valuable new information on hadron structure appear as building blocks in the collinear factorized description for several types of hard exclusive reactions. In this paper, we address the possibility of accessing nucleon-to-pion (pi N) TDAs from (p) over barp -> e(+)e(-)pi(0) reaction with the future PANDA detector at the FAIR facility. At high center-of-mass energy and high invariant mass squared of the lepton pair q(2), the amplitude of the signal channel (p) over barp -> e(+)e(-)pi(0) admits a QCD factorized description in terms of pi N TDAs and nucleon Distribution Amplitudes (DAs) in the forward aid backward kinematic regimes. Assuming the validity of this factorized description, we perform feasibility studies for measuring (p) over barp -> e(+)e(-)pi(0) with the PANDA detector. Detailed simulations on signal reconstruction efficiency as well as on rejection of the most severe background channel, i.e. (p) over barp -> pi(+)pi(-)pi(0) were performed for the center-of-mass energy squared s = 5 GeV2 and s = 10 GeV2, in the kinematic regions 3.0 < q(2) < 4.3 GeV2 and 5 < q(2) < 9 GeV2, respectively, with a neutral pion scattered in the forward or backward cone vertical bar cos theta(pi 0)vertical bar > 0.5 in the proton-antiproton center-of-mass frame. Results of the simulation show that the particle identification capabilities of the PANDA detector will allow to achieve a background rejection factor of 5 . 10(7) (1 . 10(7)) at low (high) q(2) for s = 5 GeV2, and of 1 . 10(8) (6 . 10(6)) at low (high) q(2) for s = 10 GeV2, while keeping the signal reconstruction efficiency at around 40%. At both energies, a clean lepton signal can be reconstructed with the expected statistics corresponding to 2 of integrated luminosity. The cross sections obtained from the simulations are used to show that a test of QCD collinear factorization can be done at the lowest order by measuring scaling laws and angular distributions. The future measurement of the signal channel cross section with PANDA will provide a new test of the perturbative QCD description of a novel class of hard exclusive reactions and will open the possibility of experimentally accessing pi N TDAs.
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| 11. |
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| 12. |
- Frank, TD, et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2017, and forecasts to 2030, for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017
- 2019
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In: The lancet. HIV. - 2352-3018. ; 6:12, s. E831-E859
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)
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| 13. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(author)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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In: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 15. |
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| 16. |
- Kassebaum, Nicholas J., et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE), 1990-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2016
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In: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1603-1658
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background Healthy life expectancy (HALE) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) provide summary measures of health across geographies and time that can inform assessments of epidemiological patterns and health system performance, help to prioritise investments in research and development, and monitor progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We aimed to provide updated HALE and DALYs for geographies worldwide and evaluate how disease burden changes with development. Methods We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost (YLLs) and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for each geography, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using the Sullivan method, which draws from age-specific death rates and YLDs per capita. We then assessed how observed levels of DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends calculated with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator constructed from measures of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Findings Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2015, with decreases in communicable, neonatal, maternal, and nutritional (Group 1) disease DALYs off set by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Much of this epidemiological transition was caused by changes in population growth and ageing, but it was accelerated by widespread improvements in SDI that also correlated strongly with the increasing importance of NCDs. Both total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most Group 1 causes significantly decreased by 2015, and although total burden climbed for the majority of NCDs, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined. Nonetheless, age-standardised DALY rates due to several high-burden NCDs (including osteoarthritis, drug use disorders, depression, diabetes, congenital birth defects, and skin, oral, and sense organ diseases) either increased or remained unchanged, leading to increases in their relative ranking in many geographies. From 2005 to 2015, HALE at birth increased by an average of 2.9 years (95% uncertainty interval 2.9-3.0) for men and 3.5 years (3.4-3.7) for women, while HALE at age 65 years improved by 0.85 years (0.78-0.92) and 1.2 years (1.1-1.3), respectively. Rising SDI was associated with consistently higher HALE and a somewhat smaller proportion of life spent with functional health loss; however, rising SDI was related to increases in total disability. Many countries and territories in central America and eastern sub-Saharan Africa had increasingly lower rates of disease burden than expected given their SDI. At the same time, a subset of geographies recorded a growing gap between observed and expected levels of DALYs, a trend driven mainly by rising burden due to war, interpersonal violence, and various NCDs. Interpretation Health is improving globally, but this means more populations are spending more time with functional health loss, an absolute expansion of morbidity. The proportion of life spent in ill health decreases somewhat with increasing SDI, a relative compression of morbidity, which supports continued efforts to elevate personal income, improve education, and limit fertility. Our analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework on which to benchmark geography-specific health performance and SDG progress. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform financial and research investments, prevention efforts, health policies, and health system improvement initiatives for all countries along the development continuum.
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| 17. |
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| 18. |
- Chen, Y-B, et al.
(author)
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GvHD after umbilical cord blood transplantation for acute leukemia : an analysis of risk factors and effect on outcomes
- 2017
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In: Bone Marrow Transplantation. - : NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP. - 0268-3369 .- 1476-5365. ; 52:3, s. 400-408
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Using the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research (CIBMTR) registry, we analyzed 1404 umbilical cord blood transplantation (UCBT) patients (single (>= 18 years) = 810, double (< 18 years) = 594) with acute leukemia to define the incidence of acute GvHD (aGvHD) and chronic GvHD (cGvHD), analyze clinical risk factors and investigate outcomes. After single UCBT, 100-day incidence of grade II-IV aGvHD was 39% (95% confidence interval (CI), 36-43%), grade III-IV aGvHD was 18% (95% CI, 15-20%) and 1-year cGvHD was 27% (95% CI, 24-30%). After double UCBT, 100-day incidence of grade II-IV aGvHD was 45% (95% CI, 41-49%), grade III-IV aGvHD was 22% (95% CI, 19-26%) and 1-year cGvHD was 26% (95% CI, 22-29%). For single UCBT, multivariate analysis showed that absence of antithymocyte globulin (ATG) was associated with aGvHD, whereas prior aGvHD was associated with cGvHD. For double UCBT, absence of ATG and myeloablative conditioning were associated with aGvHD, whereas prior aGvHD predicted for cGvHD. Grade III-IV aGvHD led to worse survival, whereas cGvHD had no significant effect on disease-free or overall survival. GvHD is prevalent after UCBT with severe aGvHD leading to higher mortality. Future research in UCBT should prioritize prevention of GvHD.
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| 19. |
- Saunois, M., et al.
(author)
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The global methane budget 2000–2012
- 2016
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In: Earth System Science Data. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1866-3508 .- 1866-3516. ; 8:2, s. 697-751
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The global methane (CH4) budget is becoming an increasingly important component for managing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. This relevance, due to a shorter atmospheric lifetime and a stronger warming potential than carbon dioxide, is challenged by the still unexplained changes of atmospheric CH4 over the past decade. Emissions and concentrations of CH4 are continuing to increase, making CH4 the second most important human-induced greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide. Two major difficulties in reducing uncertainties come from the large variety of diffusive CH4 sources that overlap geographically, and from the destruction of CH4 by the very short-lived hydroxyl radical (OH). To address these difficulties, we have established a consortium of multi-disciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to synthesize and stimulate research on the methane cycle, and producing regular (∼ biennial) updates of the global methane budget. This consortium includes atmospheric physicists and chemists, biogeochemists of surface and marine emissions, and socio-economists who study anthropogenic emissions. Following Kirschke et al. (2013), we propose here the first version of a living review paper that integrates results of top-down studies (exploiting atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modelling framework) and bottom-up models, inventories and data-driven approaches (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry, and inventories for anthropogenic emissions, data-driven extrapolations). For the 2003–2012 decade, global methane emissions are estimated by top-down inversions at 558 Tg CH4 yr−1, range 540–568. About 60 % of global emissions are anthropogenic (range 50–65 %). Since 2010, the bottom-up global emission inventories have been closer to methane emissions in the most carbon-intensive Representative Concentrations Pathway (RCP8.5) and higher than all other RCP scenarios. Bottom-up approaches suggest larger global emissions (736 Tg CH4 yr−1, range 596–884) mostly because of larger natural emissions from individual sources such as inland waters, natural wetlands and geological sources. Considering the atmospheric constraints on the top-down budget, it is likely that some of the individual emissions reported by the bottom-up approaches are overestimated, leading to too large global emissions. Latitudinal data from top-down emissions indicate a predominance of tropical emissions (∼ 64 % of the global budget, < 30° N) as compared to mid (∼ 32 %, 30–60° N) and high northern latitudes (∼ 4 %, 60–90° N). Top-down inversions consistently infer lower emissions in China (∼ 58 Tg CH4 yr−1, range 51–72, −14 %) and higher emissions in Africa (86 Tg CH4 yr−1, range 73–108, +19 %) than bottom-up values used as prior estimates. Overall, uncertainties for anthropogenic emissions appear smaller than those from natural sources, and the uncertainties on source categories appear larger for top-down inversions than for bottom-up inventories and models. The most important source of uncertainty on the methane budget is attributable to emissions from wetland and other inland waters. We show that the wetland extent could contribute 30–40 % on the estimated range for wetland emissions. Other priorities for improving the methane budget include the following: (i) the development of process-based models for inland-water emissions, (ii) the intensification of methane observations at local scale (flux measurements) to constrain bottom-up land surface models, and at regional scale (surface networks and satellites) to constrain top-down inversions, (iii) improvements in the estimation of atmospheric loss by OH, and (iv) improvements of the transport models integrated in top-down inversions. The data presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (http://doi.org/10.3334/CDIAC/GLOBAL_METHANE_BUDGET_2016_V1.1) and the Global Carbon Project.
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| 20. |
- Saunois, M., et al.
(author)
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Variability and quasi-decadal changes in the methane budget over the period 2000–2012
- 2017
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In: Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1680-7316 .- 1680-7324. ; 17:18, s. 11135-11161
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Following the recent Global Carbon Project (GCP) synthesis of the decadal methane (CH4) budget over 2000–2012 (Saunois et al., 2016), we analyse here the same dataset with a focus on quasi-decadal and inter-annual variability in CH4 emissions. The GCP dataset integrates results from top-down studies (exploiting atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modelling framework) and bottom-up models (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry), inventories of anthropogenic emissions, and data-driven approaches. The annual global methane emissions from top-down studies, which by construction match the observed methane growth rate within their uncertainties, all show an increase in total methane emissions over the period 2000–2012, but this increase is not linear over the 13 years. Despite differences between individual studies, the mean emission anomaly of the top-down ensemble shows no significant trend in total methane emissions over the period 2000–2006, during the plateau of atmospheric methane mole fractions, and also over the period 2008–2012, during the renewed atmospheric methane increase. However, the top-down ensemble mean produces an emission shift between 2006 and 2008, leading to 22 [16–32] Tg CH4 yr−1 higher methane emissions over the period 2008–2012 compared to 2002–2006. This emission increase mostly originated from the tropics, with a smaller contribution from mid-latitudes and no significant change from boreal regions. The regional contributions remain uncertain in top-down studies. Tropical South America and South and East Asia seem to contribute the most to the emission increase in the tropics. However, these two regions have only limited atmospheric measurements and remain therefore poorly constrained. The sectorial partitioning of this emission increase between the periods 2002–2006 and 2008–2012 differs from one atmospheric inversion study to another. However, all top-down studies suggest smaller changes in fossil fuel emissions (from oil, gas, and coal industries) compared to the mean of the bottom-up inventories included in this study. This difference is partly driven by a smaller emission change in China from the top-down studies compared to the estimate in the Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGARv4.2) inventory, which should be revised to smaller values in a near future. We apply isotopic signatures to the emission changes estimated for individual studies based on five emission sectors and find that for six individual top-down studies (out of eight) the average isotopic signature of the emission changes is not consistent with the observed change in atmospheric 13CH4. However, the partitioning in emission change derived from the ensemble mean is consistent with this isotopic constraint. At the global scale, the top-down ensemble mean suggests that the dominant contribution to the resumed atmospheric CH4 growth after 2006 comes from microbial sources (more from agriculture and waste sectors than from natural wetlands), with an uncertain but smaller contribution from fossil CH4 emissions. In addition, a decrease in biomass burning emissions (in agreement with the biomass burning emission databases) makes the balance of sources consistent with atmospheric 13CH4 observations. In most of the top-down studies included here, OH concentrations are considered constant over the years (seasonal variations but without any inter-annual variability). As a result, the methane loss (in particular through OH oxidation) varies mainly through the change in methane concentrations and not its oxidants. For these reasons, changes in the methane loss could not be properly investigated in this study, although it may play a significant role in the recent atmospheric methane changes as briefly discussed at the end of the paper.
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| 21. |
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| 22. |
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| 23. |
- Vu, Ly P., et al.
(author)
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Functional screen of MSI2 interactors identifies an essential role for SYNCRIP in myeloid leukemia stem cells
- 2017
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In: Nature Genetics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1061-4036 .- 1546-1718. ; 49:6, s. 866-875
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The identity of the RNA-binding proteins (RBPs) that govern cancer stem cells remains poorly characterized. The MSI2 RBP is a central regulator of translation of cancer stem cell programs. Through proteomic analysis of the MSI2-interacting RBP network and functional shRNA screening, we identified 24 genes required for in vivo leukemia. Syncrip was the most differentially required gene between normal and myeloid leukemia cells. SYNCRIP depletion increased apoptosis and differentiation while delaying leukemogenesis. Gene expression profiling of SYNCRIP-depleted cells demonstrated a loss of the MLL and HOXA9 leukemia stem cell program. SYNCRIP and MSI2 interact indirectly though shared mRNA targets. SYNCRIP maintains HOXA9 translation, and MSI2 or HOXA9 overexpression rescued the effects of SYNCRIP depletion. Altogether, our data identify SYNCRIP as a new RBP that controls the myeloid leukemia stem cell program. We propose that targeting these RBP complexes might provide a novel therapeutic strategy in leukemia.
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| 24. |
- Yang, W., et al.
(author)
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Immunogenic neoantigens derived from gene fusions stimulate T cell responses
- 2019
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In: Nature Medicine. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1078-8956 .- 1546-170X. ; 25:5
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Anti-tumor immunity is driven by self versus non-self discrimination. Many immunotherapeutic approaches to cancer have taken advantage of tumor neoantigens derived from somatic mutations. Here, we demonstrate that gene fusions are a source of immunogenic neoantigens that can mediate responses to immunotherapy. We identified an exceptional responder with metastatic head and neck cancer who experienced a complete response to immune checkpoint inhibitor therapy, despite a low mutational load and minimal pre-treatment immune infiltration in the tumor. Using whole-genome sequencing and RNA sequencing, we identified a novel gene fusion and demonstrated that it produces a neoantigen that can specifically elicit a host cytotoxic T cell response. In a cohort of head and neck tumors with low mutation burden, minimal immune infiltration and prevalent gene fusions, we also identified gene fusion-derived neoantigens that generate cytotoxic T cell responses. Finally, analyzing additional datasets of fusion-positive cancers, including checkpoint-inhibitor-treated tumors, we found evidence of immune surveillance resulting in negative selective pressure against gene fusion-derived neoantigens. These findings highlight an important class of tumor-specific antigens and have implications for targeting gene fusion events in cancers that would otherwise be less poised for response to immunotherapy, including cancers with low mutational load and minimal immune infiltration.
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| 25. |
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| 26. |
- Arora, M., et al.
(author)
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Fetal and postnatal metal dysregulation in autism
- 2017
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In: Nat Commun. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2041-1723. ; 8
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Genetic and environmental factors contribute to the etiologies of autism spectrum disorder (ASD), but evidence of specific environmental exposures and susceptibility windows is limited. Here we study monozygotic and dizygotic twins discordant for ASD to test whether fetal and postnatal metal dysregulation increases ASD risk. Using validated tooth-matrix biomarkers, we estimate pre- and post-natal exposure profiles of essential and toxic elements. Significant divergences are apparent in metal uptake between ASD cases and their control siblings, but only during discrete developmental periods. Cases have reduced uptake of essential elements manganese and zinc, and higher uptake of the neurotoxin lead. Manganese and lead are also correlated with ASD severity and autistic traits. Our study suggests that metal toxicant uptake and essential element deficiency during specific developmental windows increases ASD risk and severity, supporting the hypothesis of systemic elemental dysregulation in ASD. Independent replication in population-based studies is needed to extend these findings.
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| 27. |
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| 28. |
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| 29. |
- Rabin, Sam S., et al.
(author)
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The Fire Modeling Intercomparison Project (FireMIP), phase 1 : Experimental and analytical protocols with detailed model descriptions
- 2017
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In: Geoscientific Model Development. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1991-959X .- 1991-9603. ; 10:3, s. 1175-1197
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The important role of fire in regulating vegetation community composition and contributions to emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols make it a critical component of dynamic global vegetation models and Earth system models. Over 2 decades of development, a wide variety of model structures and mechanisms have been designed and incorporated into global fire models, which have been linked to different vegetation models. However, there has not yet been a systematic examination of how these different strategies contribute to model performance. Here we describe the structure of the first phase of the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP), which for the first time seeks to systematically compare a number of models. By combining a standardized set of input data and model experiments with a rigorous comparison of model outputs to each other and to observations, we will improve the understanding of what drives vegetation fire, how it can best be simulated, and what new or improved observational data could allow better constraints on model behavior. In this paper, we introduce the fire models used in the first phase of FireMIP, the simulation protocols applied, and the benchmarking system used to evaluate the models. We have also created supplementary tables that describe, in thorough mathematical detail, the structure of each model.
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| 30. |
- Saad, Ayman, et al.
(author)
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Impact of T Cell Dose on Outcome of T Cell-Replete HLA-Matched Allogeneic Peripheral Blood Stem Cell Transplantation
- 2019
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In: Biology of blood and marrow transplantation. - : ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC. - 1083-8791 .- 1523-6536. ; 25:9, s. 1875-1883
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Data on whether the T cell dose of allogeneic peripheral blood stem cell (PBSC) products influences transplantation outcomes are conflicting. Using the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research database, we identified 2736 adult patients who underwent first allogeneic PBSC transplantation for acute leukemia or myelodysplastic syndrome between 2008 and 2014 using an HLA-matched sibling donor (MSD) or an 8/8-matched unrelated donor (MUD). We excluded ex vivo and in vivo T cell-depleted transplantations. Correlative analysis was performed between CD3(+) T cell dose and the risk of graft-versus-host-disease (GVHD), relapse, nonrelapse mortality (NRM), disease-free survival (DFS), and overall survival (OS). Using maximum likelihood estimation, we identified CD3(+) T cell dose cutoff that separated the risk of acute GVHD (aGVHD) grade II-IV in both the MSD and MUD groups. A CD3(+) T cell dose cutoff of 14 x 10(7) cells/kg identified MSD/low CD3(+) (n = 223) and MSD/high CD3(+) (n = 1214), and a dose of 15 x 107 cells/kg identified MUD/low (n = 197) and MUD/high CD3(+) (n = 1102). On univariate analysis, the MSD/high CD3(+) group had a higher cumulative incidence of day +100 aGVHD grade II-IV compared with the MSD/low CD3(+) group (33% versus 25%; P=.009). There were no differences between the 2 groups in engraftment rate, risk of aGVHD grade III-IV or chronic GVHD (cGVHD), NRM, relapse, DFS, or OS. The MUD/high CD3(+) group had a higher cumulative incidence of day +100 aGVHD grade II-IV compared with the MUD/low CD3(+) group (49% versus 41%; P=.04). There were no differences between the 2 groups in engraftment rate, risk of severe aGVHD or cGVHD, NRM, relapse, DFS, or OS. Multivariate analysis of the MSD and MUD groups failed to show an association between CD3(+) T cell dose and the risk of either aGVHD grade II-IV (P=.10 and .07, respectively) or cGVHD (P = .80 and .30, respectively). Subanalysis of CD4(+) T cells, CD8(+) T cells, and CD4+/CD8+ ratio failed to identify cutoff values predictive of transplantation outcomes; however, using the log-rank test, the sample size was suboptimal for identifying a difference at this cutoff cell dose. In this registry study, the CD3(+) T cell dose of PBSC products did not influence the risk of aGVHD or cGVHD or other transplantation outcomes when using an MSD or an 8/8-matched MUD. Subset analyses of CD4(+) and CD8(+) T cell doses were not possible given our small sample size. (C) 2019 American Society for Transplantation and Cellular Therapy. Published by Elsevier Inc.
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| 31. |
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| 32. |
- Andreassen, A. K., et al.
(author)
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Everolimus Initiation With Early Calcineurin Inhibitor Withdrawal in De Novo Heart Transplant Recipients: Three-Year Results From the Randomized SCHEDULE Study
- 2016
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In: American Journal of Transplantation. - : WILEY-BLACKWELL. - 1600-6135 .- 1600-6143. ; 16:4, s. 1238-1247
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- In a randomized, open-label trial, de novo heart transplant recipients were randomized to everolimus (3-6ng/mL) with reduced-exposure calcineurin inhibitor (CNI; cyclosporine) to weeks 7-11 after transplant, followed by increased everolimus exposure (target 6-10ng/mL) with cyclosporine withdrawal or standard-exposure cyclosporine. All patients received mycophenolate mofetil and corticosteroids. A total of 110 of 115 patients completed the 12-month study, and 102 attended a follow-up visit at month 36. Mean measured GFR (mGFR) at month 36 was 77.4mL/min (standard deviation [SD] 20.2mL/min) versus 59.2mL/min (SD 17.4mL/min) in the everolimus and CNI groups, respectively, a difference of 18.3mL/min (95% CI 11.1-25.6mL/min; p < 0.001) in the intention to treat population. Multivariate analysis showed treatment to be an independent determinant of mGFR at month 36. Coronary intravascular ultrasound at 36 months revealed significantly reduced progression of allograft vasculopathy in the everolimus group compared with the CNI group. Biopsy-proven acute rejection grade 2R occurred in 10.2% and 5.9% of everolimus- and CNI-treated patients, respectively, during months 12-36. Serious adverse events occurred in 37.3% and 19.6% of everolimus- and CNI-treated patients, respectively (p=0.078). These results suggest that early CNI withdrawal after heart transplantation supported by everolimus, mycophenolic acid and steroids with lymphocyte-depleting induction is safe at intermediate follow-up. This regimen, used selectively, may offer adequate immunosuppressive potency with a sustained renal advantage. A follow-up study of the SCHEDULE trial, which randomized de novo heart transplant recipients to everolimus with cyclosporine discontinuation or to standard-exposure cyclosporine, shows that measured glomerular filtration rate remains significantly higher in the everolimus group at three years posttransplant, with significantly reduced progression of allograft vasculopathy compared to cyclosporine therapy.
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| 33. |
- Arai, Sally, et al.
(author)
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Increasing incidence of chronic graft-versus-host disease in allogeneic transplantation : a report from the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research.
- 2015
-
In: Biology of blood and marrow transplantation. - : Elsevier BV. - 1083-8791 .- 1523-6536. ; 21:2, s. 266-74
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Although transplant practices have changed over the last decades, no information is available on trends in incidence and outcome of chronic graft-versus-host disease (cGVHD) over time. This study used the central database of the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research (CIBMTR) to describe time trends for cGVHD incidence, nonrelapse mortality, and risk factors for cGVHD. The 12-year period was divided into 3 intervals, 1995 to 1999, 2000 to 2003, and 2004 to 2007, and included 26,563 patients with acute leukemia, chronic myeloid leukemia, and myelodysplastic syndrome. Multivariate analysis showed an increased incidence of cGVHD in more recent years (odds ratio = 1.19, P < .0001), and this trend was still seen when adjusting for donor type, graft type, or conditioning intensity. In patients with cGVHD, nonrelapse mortality has decreased over time, but at 5 years there were no significant differences among different time periods. Risk factors for cGVHD were in line with previous studies. This is the first comprehensive characterization of the trends in cGVHD incidence and underscores the mounting need for addressing this major late complication of transplantation in future research.
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| 34. |
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| 35. |
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| 36. |
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| 37. |
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| 38. |
- Arora, Geeti P, et al.
(author)
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Phenotypic and genotypic differences between Indian and Scandinavian women with gestational diabetes mellitus
- 2019
-
In: Journal of Internal Medicine. - : Wiley. - 1365-2796 .- 0954-6820. ; 286:2, s. 192-206
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- OBJECTIVE: Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is a transient form of diabetes characterized by impaired insulin secretion and action during pregnancy. Population-based differences in prevalence exist which could be explained by phenotypic and genetic differences. The aim of this study was to examine these differences in pregnant women from Punjab, India and Scandinavia.METHODS: 85 GDM/T2D loci in European and/or Indian populations from previous studies were assessed for association with GDM based on Swedish GDM criteria in 4018 Punjabi Indian and 507 Swedish pregnant women. Selected loci were replicated in Scandinavian cohorts, Radiel (N=398, Finnish), STORK/STORK-G (N=780, Norwegian).RESULTS: Punjabi Indian women had higher GDM prevalence, lower insulin secretion and better insulin sensitivity than Swedish women. There were significant frequency differences of GDM/T2D risk alleles between both populations. rs7178572 at HMG20A, previously associated with GDM in South Indian and European women was replicated in North Indian women. The T2D risk SNP rs11605924 in the CRY2 gene was associated with increased GDM risk in Scandinavian but decreased risk in Punjabi Indian women. No other overlap was seen between GDM loci in both populations.CONCLUSIONS: GDM is more common in Indian than Swedish women, which partially can be attributed to differences in insulin secretion and action. There was marked heterogeneity in the GDM phenotypes between the populations which could only partially be explained by genetic differences. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
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| 39. |
- Arora, S., et al.
(author)
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The Effect of Everolimus Initiation and Calcineurin Inhibitor Elimination on Cardiac Allograft Vasculopathy in De Novo Recipients: One-Year Results of a Scandinavian Randomized Trial
- 2015
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In: American Journal of Transplantation. - : Elsevier BV. - 1600-6135. ; 15:7, s. 1967-1975
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Early initiation of everolimus with calcineurin inhibitor therapy has been shown to reduce the progression of cardiac allograft vasculopathy (CAV) in de novo heart transplant recipients. The effect of de novo everolimus therapy and early total elimination of calcineurin inhibitor therapy has, however, not been investigated and is relevant given the morbidity and lack of efficacy of current protocols in preventing CAV. This 12-month multicenter Scandinavian trial randomized 115 de novo heart transplant recipients to everolimus with complete calcineurin inhibitor elimination 7-11 weeks after HTx or standard cyclosporine immunosuppression. Ninety-five (83%) patients had matched intravascular ultrasound examinations at baseline and 12 months. Mean (SD) recipient age was 49.9 +/- 13.1 years. The everolimus group (n=47) demonstrated significantly reduced CAV progression as compared to the calcineurin inhibitor group (n=48) (Maximal Intimal Thickness 0.03 +/- 0.06 and 0.08 +/- 0.12mm, Percent Atheroma Volume 1.3 +/- 2.3 and 4.2 +/- 5.0%, Total Atheroma Volume 1.1 +/- 19.2mm(3) and 13.8 +/- 28.0mm(3) [all p-values0.01]). Everolimus patients also had a significantly greater decline in levels of soluble tumor necrosis factor receptor-1 as compared to the calcineurin inhibitor group (p=0.02). These preliminary results suggest that an everolimus-based CNI-free can potentially be considered in suitable de novo HTx recipients.
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| 40. |
- Arora, Tulika, et al.
(author)
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Microbial fermentation of flaxseed fibers modulates the transcriptome of GPR41-expressing enteroendocrine cells and protects mice against diet-induced obesity
- 2019
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In: American Journal of Physiology - Endocrinology and Metabolism. - : American Physiological Society. - 0193-1849 .- 1522-1555. ; 316:3
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Dietary fibers, an integral part of the human diet, require the enzymatic activity of the gut microbiota for complete metabolism into short-chain fatty acids (SCFAs). SCFAs are important modulators of host metabolism and physiology and act in part as signaling molecules by activating G protein-coupled receptors (GPCRs), such as GPR41. Flaxseed fibers improve metabolism in rodents and mice, but their fermentation profiles, effects on enteroendocrine cells, and associated metabolic benefits are unknown. We fed GPR41-red fluorescent protein mice, an enteroendocrine reporter mouse strain, chow, high-fat diet (HFD), or HFD supplemented either with 10% nonfermentable fiber cellulose or fermentable flaxseed fibers for 12 wk to assess changes in cecal gut microbiota, enteroendocrine cell transcriptome in the ileum and colon, and physiological parameters. We observed that flaxseed fibers restructured the gut microbiota and promoted proliferation of the genera Bifidobacterium and Akkermansia compared with HFD. The shifts in cecal bacterial composition restored levels of the SCFAs butyrate similar to the chow diet, resulting in colonic but not ileal enteroendocrine cell transcriptional changes in genes related to cell cycle, mRNA, and protein transport compared with HFD. Consistent with the effects on enteroendocrine functions, flaxseed fibers also protected mice from diet-induced obesity, potentially by preventing a reduction in energy expenditure induced by an HFD. Our study shows that flaxseed fibers alter cecal microbial ecology, are fermented to SCFAs in the cecum, and modulate enteroendocrine cell transcriptome in the colon, which may contribute to their metabolically favorable phenotype. © 2019 the American Physiological Society.
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| 41. |
- Austin, C, et al.
(author)
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Dynamical properties of elemental metabolism distinguish attention deficit hyperactivity disorder from autism spectrum disorder
- 2019
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In: Translational psychiatry. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2158-3188. ; 9:1, s. 238-
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and autism spectrum disorder (ASD) are neurodevelopmental conditions of overlapping etiologies and phenotypes. For ASD, we recently reported altered elemental metabolic patterns in the form of short and irregular zinc and copper cycles. Here, we extend the application of these biomarkers of prenatal and early postnatal elemental metabolism to distinguish between individuals diagnosed with ADHD and/or ASD and neurotypical controls. We recruited twins discordant for ADHD, ASD and other neurodevelopmental diagnoses from national twin studies in Sweden (N = 74) diagnosed according to DSM-5 clinical consensus and standardized psychiatric instruments. Detailed temporal profiles of exposure to 10 metals over the prenatal and early childhood periods were measured using tooth biomarkers. We used recurrence quantification analysis (RQA) to characterize properties of cyclical metabolic patterns of these metals. Regularity (determinism) and complexity (entropy) of elemental cycles was consistently reduced in ADHD for cobalt, lead, and vanadium (determinism: cobalt, β = −0.03, P = 0.017; lead, β = −0.03, P = 0.016; and vanadium, β = −0.03, P = 0.01. Entropy: cobalt, β = −0.13, P = 0.017; lead, β = −0.18, P = 0.016; and vanadium, β = −0.15, P = 0.008). Further, we found elemental pathways and dynamical features specific to ADHD vs ASD, and unique characteristics associated with ADHD/ASD combined presentation. Dysregulation of cyclical processes in elemental metabolism during prenatal and early postnatal development not only encompasses pathways shared by ADHD and ASD, but also comprise features specific to either condition.
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| 42. |
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| 43. |
- Christiansen, D., et al.
(author)
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Phonon Sidebands in Monolayer Transition Metal Dichalcogenides
- 2017
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In: Physical Review Letters. - 1079-7114 .- 0031-9007. ; 119:18
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Excitons dominate the optical properties of monolayer transition metal dichalcogenides (TMDs). Besides optically accessible bright exciton states, TMDs exhibit also a multitude of optically forbidden dark excitons. Here, we show that efficient exciton-phonon scattering couples bright and dark states and gives rise to an asymmetric excitonic line shape. The observed asymmetry can be traced back to phonon-induced sidebands that are accompanied by a polaron redshift. We present a joint theory-experiment study investigating the microscopic origin of these sidebands in different TMD materials taking into account intra and intervalley scattering channels opened by optical and acoustic phonons. The gained insights contribute to a better understanding of the optical fingerprint of these technologically promising nanomaterials.
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| 44. |
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| 45. |
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| 46. |
- Hart, GT, et al.
(author)
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Adaptive NK cells in people exposed to Plasmodium falciparum correlate with protection from malaria
- 2019
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In: The Journal of experimental medicine. - : Rockefeller University Press. - 1540-9538 .- 0022-1007. ; 216:6, s. 1280-1290
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- How antibodies naturally acquired during Plasmodium falciparum infection provide clinical immunity to blood-stage malaria is unclear. We studied the function of natural killer (NK) cells in people living in a malaria-endemic region of Mali. Multi-parameter flow cytometry revealed a high proportion of adaptive NK cells, which are defined by the loss of transcription factor PLZF and Fc receptor γ-chain. Adaptive NK cells dominated antibody-dependent cellular cytotoxicity responses, and their frequency within total NK cells correlated with lower parasitemia and resistance to malaria. P. falciparum–infected RBCs induced NK cell degranulation after addition of plasma from malaria-resistant individuals. Malaria-susceptible subjects with the largest increase in PLZF-negative NK cells during the transmission season had improved odds of resistance during the subsequent season. Thus, antibody-dependent lysis of P. falciparum–infected RBCs by NK cells may be a mechanism of acquired immunity to malaria. Consideration of antibody-dependent NK cell responses to P. falciparum antigens is therefore warranted in the design of malaria vaccines.
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| 47. |
- Keller, Mark W., et al.
(author)
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Near-unity spin Hall ratio in NixCu1-x alloys
- 2019
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In: Physical Review B. - 2469-9950 .- 2469-9969. ; 99:21
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We report a large spin Hall effect in the 3d transition metal alloy NixCu1-x for x is an element of {0.3, 0.75}, detected via the ferromagnetic resonance of a permalloy (Py = Ni80Fe20) film deposited in a bilayer with the alloy. A thickness series at x = 0.6, for which the alloy is paramagnetic at room temperature, allows us to determine the spin Hall ratio theta(SH) approximate to 1, spin diffusion length lambda(s), spin mixing conductance G(up arrow down arrow) and damping due to spin memory loss alpha(SML). We compare our results with similar experiments on Py/Pt bilayers measured using the same method. Ab initio band structure calculations with disorder and spin-orbit coupling suggest an intrinsic spin Hall effect in NixCu1-x alloys, although the experiments here cannot distinguish between extrinsic and intrinsic mechanisms.
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| 48. |
- Mehta, Rohtesh S., et al.
(author)
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GRFS and CRFS in alternative donor hematopoietic cell transplantation for pediatric patients with acute leukemia
- 2019
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In: Blood Advances. - : American Society of Hematology. - 2473-9529 .- 2473-9537. ; 3:9, s. 1441-1449
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We report graft-versus-host disease (GVHD)-free relapse-free survival (GRFS) (a composite end point of survival without grade III-IV acute GVHD [aGVHD], systemic therapy-requiring chronic GVHD [cGVHD], or relapse) and cGVHD-free relapse-free survival (CRFS) among pediatric patients with acute leukemia (n = 1613) who underwent transplantation with 1 antigen-mismatched (7/8) bone marrow (BM; n = 172) or umbilical cord blood (UCB; n = 1441). Multivariate analysis was performed using Cox proportional hazards models. To account for multiple testing, P < .01 for the donor/graft variable was considered statistically significant. Clinical characteristics were similar between UCB and 7/8 BM recipients, because most had acute lymphoblastic leukemia (62%), 64% received total body irradiation-based conditioning, and 60% received anti-thymocyte globulin or alemtuzumab. Methotrexate-based GVHD prophylaxis was more common with 7/8 BM (79%) than with UCB (15%), in which mycophenolate mofetil was commonly used. The univariate estimates of GRFS and CRFS were 22% (95% confidence interval [CI], 16-29) and 27% (95% CI, 20-34), respectively, with 7/8 BM and 33% (95% CI, 31-36) and 38% (95% CI, 35-40), respectively, with UCB (P < .001). In multivariate analysis, 7/8 BM vs UCB had similar GRFS (hazard ratio [HR], 1.12; 95% CI, 0.87-1.45; P = .39), CRFS (HR, 1.06; 95% CI, 0.82-1.38; P = .66), overall survival (HR, 1.07; 95% CI, 0.80-1.44; P = .66), and relapse (HR, 1.44; 95% CI, 1.03-2.02; P = .03). However, the 7/8 BM group had a significantly higher risk for grade III-IV aGVHD (HR, 1.70; 95% CI, 1.16-2.48; P = .006) compared with the UCB group. UCB and 7/8 BM groups had similar outcomes, as measured by GRFS and CRFS. However, given the higher risk for grade III-IV aGVHD, UCB might be preferred for patients lacking matched donors.
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| 49. |
- Mischke, M., et al.
(author)
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Specific synbiotics in early life protect against diet-induced obesity in adult mice
- 2018
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In: Diabetes Obesity & Metabolism. - : Wiley. - 1462-8902. ; 20:6, s. 1408-1418
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Aims: The metabolic state of human adults is associated with their gut microbiome. The symbiosis between host and microbiome is initiated at birth, and early life microbiome perturbation can disturb health throughout life. Here, we determined how beneficial microbiome interventions in early life affect metabolic health in adulthood. Methods: Postnatal diets were supplemented with either prebiotics (scGOS/lcFOS) or synbiotics (scGOS/lcFOS with Bifidobacterium breve M-16 V) until post-natal (PN) day 42 in a well-established rodent model for nutritional programming. Mice were subsequently challenged with a high-fat Western-style diet (WSD) for 8 weeks. Body weight and composition were monitored, as was gut microbiota composition at PN21, 42 and 98. Markers of glucose homeostasis, lipid metabolism and host transcriptomics of 6 target tissues were determined in adulthood (PN98). Results: Early life synbiotics protected mice against WSD-induced excessive fat accumulation throughout life, replicable in 2 independent European animal facilities. Adult insulin sensitivity and dyslipidaemia were improved and most pronounced changes in gene expression were observed in the ileum. We observed subtle changes in faecal microbiota composition, both in early life and in adulthood, including increased abundance of Bifidobacterium. Microbiota transplantation using samples collected from synbiotics- supplemented adolescent mice at PN42 to age-matched germ-free recipients did not transfer the beneficial phenotype, indicating that synbiotics-modified microbiota at PN42 is not sufficient to transfer long-lasting protection of metabolic health status. Conclusion: Together, these findings show the potential and importance of timing of synbiotic interventions in early life during crucial microbiota development as a preventive measure to lower the risk of obesity and improve metabolic health throughout life. RAHAMSEBERKEVELD, 2016, J NUTR SCI, V5
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