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4. |
- Buntgen, U., et al.
(author)
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Tree rings reveal globally coherent signature of cosmogenic radiocarbon events in 774 and 993 CE
- 2018
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In: Nature Communications. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2041-1723. ; 9
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Though tree-ring chronologies are annually resolved, their dating has never been independently validated at the global scale. Moreover, it is unknown if atmospheric radiocarbon enrichment events of cosmogenic origin leave spatiotemporally consistent fingerprints. Here we measure the 14C content in 484 individual tree rings formed in the periods 770–780 and 990–1000 CE. Distinct 14C excursions starting in the boreal summer of 774 and the boreal spring of 993 ensure the precise dating of 44 tree-ring records from five continents. We also identify a meridional decline of 11-year mean atmospheric radiocarbon concentrations across both hemispheres. Corroborated by historical eye-witness accounts of red auroras, our results suggest a global exposure to strong solar proton radiation. To improve understanding of the return frequency and intensity of past cosmic events, which is particularly important for assessing the potential threat of space weather on our society, further annually resolved 14C measurements are needed.
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6. |
- Hu, H., et al.
(author)
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X-exome sequencing of 405 unresolved families identifies seven novel intellectual disability genes
- 2016
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In: Molecular Psychiatry. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1359-4184 .- 1476-5578. ; 21:1, s. 133-148
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- X-linked intellectual disability (XLID) is a clinically and genetically heterogeneous disorder. During the past two decades in excess of 100 X-chromosome ID genes have been identified. Yet, a large number of families mapping to the X-chromosome remained unresolved suggesting that more XLID genes or loci are yet to be identified. Here, we have investigated 405 unresolved families with XLID. We employed massively parallel sequencing of all X-chromosome exons in the index males. The majority of these males were previously tested negative for copy number variations and for mutations in a subset of known XLID genes by Sanger sequencing. In total, 745 X-chromosomal genes were screened. After stringent filtering, a total of 1297 non-recurrent exonic variants remained for prioritization. Co-segregation analysis of potential clinically relevant changes revealed that 80 families (20%) carried pathogenic variants in established XLID genes. In 19 families, we detected likely causative protein truncating and missense variants in 7 novel and validated XLID genes (CLCN4, CNKSR2, FRMPD4, KLHL15, LAS1L, RLIM and USP27X) and potentially deleterious variants in 2 novel candidate XLID genes (CDK16 and TAF1). We show that the CLCN4 and CNKSR2 variants impair protein functions as indicated by electrophysiological studies and altered differentiation of cultured primary neurons from Clcn4(-/-) mice or after mRNA knock-down. The newly identified and candidate XLID proteins belong to pathways and networks with established roles in cognitive function and intellectual disability in particular. We suggest that systematic sequencing of all X-chromosomal genes in a cohort of patients with genetic evidence for X-chromosome locus involvement may resolve up to 58% of Fragile X-negative cases.
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7. |
- de Vries, Paul S., et al.
(author)
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Multiancestry Genome-Wide Association Study of Lipid Levels Incorporating Gene-Alcohol Interactions
- 2019
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In: American Journal of Epidemiology. - : Oxford University Press. - 0002-9262 .- 1476-6256. ; 188:6, s. 1033-1054
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- A person's lipid profile is influenced by genetic variants and alcohol consumption, but the contribution of interactions between these exposures has not been studied. We therefore incorporated gene-alcohol interactions into a multiancestry genome-wide association study of levels of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and triglycerides. We included 45 studies in stage 1 (genome-wide discovery) and 66 studies in stage 2 (focused follow-up), for a total of 394,584 individuals from 5 ancestry groups. Analyses covered the period July 2014-November 2017. Genetic main effects and interaction effects were jointly assessed by means of a 2-degrees-of-freedom (df) test, and a 1-df test was used to assess the interaction effects alone. Variants at 495 loci were at least suggestively associated (P < 1 x 10(-6)) with lipid levels in stage 1 and were evaluated in stage 2, followed by combined analyses of stage 1 and stage 2. In the combined analysis of stages 1 and 2, a total of 147 independent loci were associated with lipid levels at P < 5 x 10(-8) using 2-df tests, of which 18 were novel. No genome-wide-significant associations were found testing the interaction effect alone. The novel loci included several genes (proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 5 (PCSK5), vascular endothelial growth factor B (VEGFB), and apolipoprotein B mRNA editing enzyme, catalytic polypeptide 1 (APOBEC1) complementation factor (A1CF)) that have a putative role in lipid metabolism on the basis of existing evidence from cellular and experimental models.
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8. |
- Patel, Riyaz S., et al.
(author)
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Subsequent Event Risk in Individuals With Established Coronary Heart Disease : Design and Rationale of the GENIUS-CHD Consortium
- 2019
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In: Circulation. - 2574-8300. ; 12:4
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND: The Genetics of Subsequent Coronary Heart Disease (GENIUS-CHD) consortium was established to facilitate discovery and validation of genetic variants and biomarkers for risk of subsequent CHD events, in individuals with established CHD.METHODS: The consortium currently includes 57 studies from 18 countries, recruiting 185 614 participants with either acute coronary syndrome, stable CHD, or a mixture of both at baseline. All studies collected biological samples and followed-up study participants prospectively for subsequent events.RESULTS: Enrollment into the individual studies took place between 1985 to present day with a duration of follow-up ranging from 9 months to 15 years. Within each study, participants with CHD are predominantly of self-reported European descent (38%-100%), mostly male (44%-91%) with mean ages at recruitment ranging from 40 to 75 years. Initial feasibility analyses, using a federated analysis approach, yielded expected associations between age (hazard ratio, 1.15; 95% CI, 1.14-1.16) per 5-year increase, male sex (hazard ratio, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.13-1.21) and smoking (hazard ratio, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.35-1.51) with risk of subsequent CHD death or myocardial infarction and differing associations with other individual and composite cardiovascular endpoints.CONCLUSIONS: GENIUS-CHD is a global collaboration seeking to elucidate genetic and nongenetic determinants of subsequent event risk in individuals with established CHD, to improve residual risk prediction and identify novel drug targets for secondary prevention. Initial analyses demonstrate the feasibility and reliability of a federated analysis approach. The consortium now plans to initiate and test novel hypotheses as well as supporting replication and validation analyses for other investigators.
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9. |
- Patel, Riyaz S., et al.
(author)
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Association of Chromosome 9p21 With Subsequent Coronary Heart Disease Events : A GENIUS-CHD Study of Individual Participant Data
- 2019
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In: Circulation. - 2574-8300. ; 12:4
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Genetic variation at chromosome 9p21 is a recognized risk factor for coronary heart disease (CHD). However, its effect on disease progression and subsequent events is unclear, raising questions about its value for stratification of residual risk.METHODS: A variant at chromosome 9p21 (rs1333049) was tested for association with subsequent events during follow-up in 103 357 Europeans with established CHD at baseline from the GENIUS-CHD (Genetics of Subsequent Coronary Heart Disease) Consortium (73.1% male, mean age 62.9 years). The primary outcome, subsequent CHD death or myocardial infarction (CHD death/myocardial infarction), occurred in 13 040 of the 93 115 participants with available outcome data. Effect estimates were compared with case/control risk obtained from the CARDIoGRAMplusC4D consortium (Coronary Artery Disease Genome-wide Replication and Meta-analysis [CARDIoGRAM] plus The Coronary Artery Disease [C4D] Genetics) including 47 222 CHD cases and 122 264 controls free of CHD.RESULTS: Meta-analyses revealed no significant association between chromosome 9p21 and the primary outcome of CHD death/myocardial infarction among those with established CHD at baseline (GENIUSCHD odds ratio, 1.02; 95% CI, 0.99-1.05). This contrasted with a strong association in CARDIoGRAMPlusC4D odds ratio 1.20; 95% CI, 1.18-1.22; P for interaction < 0.001 compared with the GENIUS-CHD estimate. Similarly, no clear associations were identified for additional subsequent outcomes, including all-cause death, although we found a modest positive association between chromosome 9p21 and subsequent revascularization (odds ratio, 1.07; 95% CI, 1.04-1.09).CONCLUSIONS: In contrast to studies comparing individuals with CHD to disease-free controls, we found no clear association between genetic variation at chromosome 9p21 and risk of subsequent acute CHD events when all individuals had CHD at baseline. However, the association with subsequent revascularization may support the postulated mechanism of chromosome 9p21 for promoting atheroma development.
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10. |
- Thomas, H. J.D., et al.
(author)
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Traditional plant functional groups explain variation in economic but not size-related traits across the tundra biome
- 2019
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In: Global Ecology and Biogeography. - : Wiley. - 1466-822X .- 1466-8238. ; 28:2, s. 78-95
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- © 2018 The Authors Global Ecology and Biogeography Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd Aim: Plant functional groups are widely used in community ecology and earth system modelling to describe trait variation within and across plant communities. However, this approach rests on the assumption that functional groups explain a large proportion of trait variation among species. We test whether four commonly used plant functional groups represent variation in six ecologically important plant traits. Location: Tundra biome. Time period: Data collected between 1964 and 2016. Major taxa studied: 295 tundra vascular plant species. Methods: We compiled a database of six plant traits (plant height, leaf area, specific leaf area, leaf dry matter content, leaf nitrogen, seed mass) for tundra species. We examined the variation in species-level trait expression explained by four traditional functional groups (evergreen shrubs, deciduous shrubs, graminoids, forbs), and whether variation explained was dependent upon the traits included in analysis. We further compared the explanatory power and species composition of functional groups to alternative classifications generated using post hoc clustering of species-level traits. Results: Traditional functional groups explained significant differences in trait expression, particularly amongst traits associated with resource economics, which were consistent across sites and at the biome scale. However, functional groups explained 19% of overall trait variation and poorly represented differences in traits associated with plant size. Post hoc classification of species did not correspond well with traditional functional groups, and explained twice as much variation in species-level trait expression. Main conclusions: Traditional functional groups only coarsely represent variation in well-measured traits within tundra plant communities, and better explain resource economic traits than size-related traits. We recommend caution when using functional group approaches to predict tundra ecosystem change, or ecosystem functions relating to plant size, such as albedo or carbon storage. We argue that alternative classifications or direct use of specific plant traits could provide new insight into ecological prediction and modelling.
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11. |
- Zhao, Chaoyang, et al.
(author)
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A massive expansion of effector genes underlies gall-formation in the wheat pest Mayetiola destructor
- 2015
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In: Current Biology. - : Elsevier BV. - 1879-0445 .- 0960-9822. ; 25:5, s. 613-620
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Gall-forming arthropods are highly specialized herbivores that, in combination with their hosts, produce extended phenotypes with unique morphologies [1]. Many are economically important, and others have improved our understanding of ecology and adaptive radiation [2]. However, the mechanisms that these arthropods use to induce plant galls are poorly understood. We sequenced the genome of the Hessian fly (Mayetiola destructor; Diptera: Cecidomyiidae), a plant parasitic gall midge and a pest of wheat (Triticum spp.), with the aim of identifying genic modifications that contribute to its plant-parasitic lifestyle. Among several adaptive modifications, we discovered an expansive reservoir of potential effector proteins. Nearly 5% of the 20,163 predicted gene models matched putative effector gene transcripts present in the M. destructor larval salivary gland. Another 466 putative effectors were discovered among the genes that have no sequence similarities in other organisms. The largest known arthropod gene family (family SSGP-71) was also discovered within the effector reservoir. SSGP-71 proteins lack sequence homologies to other proteins, but their structures resemble both ubiquitin E3 ligases in plants and E3-ligase-mimicking effectors in plant pathogenic bacteria. SSGP-71 proteins and wheat Skp proteins interact in vivo. Mutations in different SSGP-71 genes avoid the effector-triggered immunity that is directed by the wheat resistance genes H6 and H9. Results point to effectors as the agents responsible for arthropod-induced plant gall formation.
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12. |
- Björkman, Anne, 1981, et al.
(author)
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Plant functional trait change across a warming tundra biome
- 2018
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In: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 562:7725, s. 57-62
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The tundra is warming more rapidly than any other biome on Earth, and the potential ramifications are far-reaching because of global feedback effects between vegetation and climate. A better understanding of how environmental factors shape plant structure and function is crucial for predicting the consequences of environmental change for ecosystem functioning. Here we explore the biome-wide relationships between temperature, moisture and seven key plant functional traits both across space and over three decades of warming at 117 tundra locations. Spatial temperature–trait relationships were generally strong but soil moisture had a marked influence on the strength and direction of these relationships, highlighting the potentially important influence of changes in water availability on future trait shifts in tundra plant communities. Community height increased with warming across all sites over the past three decades, but other traits lagged far behind predicted rates of change. Our findings highlight the challenge of using space-for-time substitution to predict the functional consequences of future warming and suggest that functions that are tied closely to plant height will experience the most rapid change. They also reveal the strength with which environmental factors shape biotic communities at the coldest extremes of the planet and will help to improve projections of functional changes in tundra ecosystems with climate warming.
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13. |
- Björkman, Anne, 1981, et al.
(author)
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Tundra Trait Team: A database of plant traits spanning the tundra biome
- 2018
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In: Global Ecology and Biogeography. - : Wiley. - 1466-822X .- 1466-8238. ; 27:12, s. 1402-1411
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- © 2018 The Authors Global Ecology and Biogeography Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd Motivation: The Tundra Trait Team (TTT) database includes field-based measurements of key traits related to plant form and function at multiple sites across the tundra biome. This dataset can be used to address theoretical questions about plant strategy and trade-offs, trait–environment relationships and environmental filtering, and trait variation across spatial scales, to validate satellite data, and to inform Earth system model parameters. Main types of variable contained: The database contains 91,970 measurements of 18 plant traits. The most frequently measured traits (>1,000 observations each) include plant height, leaf area, specific leaf area, leaf fresh and dry mass, leaf dry matter content, leaf nitrogen, carbon and phosphorus content, leaf C:N and N:P, seed mass, and stem specific density. Spatial location and grain: Measurements were collected in tundra habitats in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, including Arctic sites in Alaska, Canada, Greenland, Fennoscandia and Siberia, alpine sites in the European Alps, Colorado Rockies, Caucasus, Ural Mountains, Pyrenees, Australian Alps, and Central Otago Mountains (New Zealand), and sub-Antarctic Marion Island. More than 99% of observations are georeferenced. Time period and grain: All data were collected between 1964 and 2018. A small number of sites have repeated trait measurements at two or more time periods. Major taxa and level of measurement: Trait measurements were made on 978 terrestrial vascular plant species growing in tundra habitats. Most observations are on individuals (86%), while the remainder represent plot or site means or maximums per species. Software format: csv file and GitHub repository with data cleaning scripts in R; contribution to TRY plant trait database (www.try-db.org) to be included in the next version release.
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14. |
- Kehoe, Laura, et al.
(author)
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Make EU trade with Brazil sustainable
- 2019
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In: Science. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 0036-8075 .- 1095-9203. ; 364:6438, s. 341-
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Journal article (other academic/artistic)
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15. |
- Ramirez-Llodra, E., et al.
(author)
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A snap shot of the short-term response of crustaceans to macrophyte detritus in the deep Oslofjord
- 2016
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In: Scientific Reports. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2045-2322. ; 6
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- A test deployment of a time-lapse camera lander in the deep Oslofjord (431 m) was used to obtain initial information on the response of benthic fauna to macroalgal debris. Three macroalgal species were used on the lander baited plate: Fucus serratus, Saccharina latissima and Laminaria hyperborea and observed during 41.5 hours. The deep-water shrimp Pandalus borealis were attracted to the macroalgae rapidly (3 min after the lander reached the seafloor), followed by amphipods. Shrimp abundances were significantly higher in areas covered by macroalgae compared to the adjacent seafloor and the number of shrimp visiting the macroalgae increased with time. Amphipods arrived 13 hours later and were observed mainly on decaying L. hyperborea. The abundance of amphipods on L. hyperborea increased rapidly, reaching a peak at 31 h after deployment. These initial observations suggest that debris from kelp forests and other macroalgal beds may play an important role in fuelling deep benthic communities in the outer Oslofjord and, potentially, enhance secondary production of commercial species such as P. borealis.
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16. |
- Zewinger, Stephen, et al.
(author)
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Relations between lipoprotein(a) concentrations, LPA genetic variants, and the risk of mortality in patients with established coronary heart disease : a molecular and genetic association study
- 2017
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In: The Lancet Diabetes and Endocrinology. - : ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC. - 2213-8587 .- 2213-8595. ; 5:7, s. 534-543
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Lipoprotein(a) concentrations in plasma are associated with cardiovascular risk in the general population. Whether lipoprotein(a) concentrations or LPA genetic variants predict long-term mortality in patients with established coronary heart disease remains less clear.Methods: We obtained data from 3313 patients with established coronary heart disease in the Ludwigshafen Risk and Cardiovascular Health (LURIC) study. We tested associations of tertiles of lipoprotein(a) concentration in plasma and two LPA single-nucleotide polymorphisms ([SNPs] rs10455872 and rs3798220) with all-cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality by Cox regression analysis and with severity of disease by generalised linear modelling, with and without adjustment for age, sex, diabetes diagnosis, systolic blood pressure, BMI, smoking status, estimated glomerular filtration rate, LDL-cholesterol concentration, and use of lipid-lowering therapy. Results for plasma lipoprotein(a) concentrations were validated in five independent studies involving 10 195 patients with established coronary heart disease. Results for genetic associations were replicated through large-scale collaborative analysis in the GENIUS-CHD consortium, comprising 106 353 patients with established coronary heart disease and 19 332 deaths in 22 studies or cohorts.Findings: The median follow-up was 9.9 years. Increased severity of coronary heart disease was associated with lipoprotein(a) concentrations in plasma in the highest tertile (adjusted hazard radio [HR] 1.44, 95% CI 1.14-1.83) and the presence of either LPA SNP (1.88, 1.40-2.53). No associations were found in LURIC with all-cause mortality (highest tertile of lipoprotein(a) concentration in plasma 0.95, 0.81-1.11 and either LPA SNP 1.10, 0.92-1.31) or cardiovascular mortality (0.99, 0.81-1.2 and 1.13, 0.90-1.40, respectively) or in the validation studies.Interpretation: In patients with prevalent coronary heart disease, lipoprotein(a) concentrations and genetic variants showed no associations with mortality. We conclude that these variables are not useful risk factors to measure to predict progression to death after coronary heart disease is established.
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17. |
- Barrio, Isabel C., et al.
(author)
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Background invertebrate herbivory on dwarf birch (Betula glandulosa-nana complex) increases with temperature and precipitation across the tundra biome
- 2017
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In: Polar Biology. - : Springer. - 0722-4060 .- 1432-2056. ; 40:11, s. 2265-2278
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Chronic, low intensity herbivory by invertebrates, termed background herbivory, has been understudied in tundra, yet its impacts are likely to increase in a warmer Arctic. The magnitude of these changes is however hard to predict as we know little about the drivers of current levels of invertebrate herbivory in tundra. We assessed the intensity of invertebrate herbivory on a common tundra plant, the dwarf birch (Betula glandulosa-nana complex), and investigated its relationship to latitude and climate across the tundra biome. Leaf damage by defoliating, mining and gall-forming invertebrates was measured in samples collected from 192 sites at 56 locations. Our results indicate that invertebrate herbivory is nearly ubiquitous across the tundra biome but occurs at low intensity. On average, invertebrates damaged 11.2% of the leaves and removed 1.4% of total leaf area. The damage was mainly caused by external leaf feeders, and most damaged leaves were only slightly affected (12% leaf area lost). Foliar damage was consistently positively correlated with mid-summer (July) temperature and, to a lesser extent, precipitation in the year of data collection, irrespective of latitude. Our models predict that, on average, foliar losses to invertebrates on dwarf birch are likely to increase by 6-7% over the current levels with a 1 degrees C increase in summer temperatures. Our results show that invertebrate herbivory on dwarf birch is small in magnitude but given its prevalence and dependence on climatic variables, background invertebrate herbivory should be included in predictions of climate change impacts on tundra ecosystems.
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18. |
- Barrio, Isabel C., et al.
(author)
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Publisher Correction to : Background invertebrate herbivory on dwarf birch (Betula glandulosa-nana complex) increases with temperature and precipitation across the tundra biome (vol 40, pg 2265, 2017)
- 2018
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In: Polar Biology. - : Springer. - 0722-4060 .- 1432-2056. ; 41:8, s. 1653-1654
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The above mentioned article was originally scheduled for publication in the special issue on Ecology of Tundra Arthropods with guest editors Toke T. Hoye . Lauren E. Culler. Erroneously, the article was published in Polar Biology, Volume 40, Issue 11, November, 2017. The publisher sincerely apologizes to the guest editors and the authors for the inconvenience caused.
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19. |
- Finzell, Thomas, et al.
(author)
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A Detailed Observational Analysis of V1324 Sco, the Most Gamma-Ray-luminous Classical Nova to Date
- 2018
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In: Astrophysical Journal. - : American Astronomical Society. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 852:2
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- It has recently been discovered that some, if not all, classical novae emit GeV gamma-rays during outburst, but the mechanisms involved in the production ofgamma-rays are still not well understood. We present here a comprehensive multiwavelength data set - from radio to X-rays - for the most gamma-ray-luminous classical nova to date, V1324 Sco. Using this data set, we show that V1324 Sco is a canonical dusty Fe ii-type nova, with a maximum ejecta velocity of 2600 km s-1 and an ejecta mass of a few × 10-5 M⊙. There is also evidence for complex shock interactions, including a double-peaked radio light curve which shows high brightness temperatures at early times. To explore why V1324 Sco was so gamma-ray luminous, we present a model of the nova ejecta featuring strong internal shocks and find that higher gamma-ray luminosities result from higher ejecta velocities and/or mass-loss rates. Comparison of V1324 Sco with other gamma-ray-detected novae does not show clear signatures of either, and we conclude that a larger sample of similarly well-observed novae is needed to understand the origin and variation of gamma-rays in novae.
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20. |
- Groopman, Emily E., et al.
(author)
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Diagnostic Utility of Exome Sequencing for Kidney Disease
- 2019
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In: New England Journal of Medicine. - 0028-4793 .- 1533-4406. ; 380:2, s. 142-151
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND Exome sequencing is emerging as a first-line diagnostic method in some clinical disciplines, but its usefulness has yet to be examined for most constitutional disorders in adults, including chronic kidney disease, which affects more than 1 in 10 persons globally.METHODS We conducted exome sequencing and diagnostic analysis in two cohorts totaling 3315 patients with chronic kidney disease. We assessed the diagnostic yield and, among the patients for whom detailed clinical data were available, the clinical implications of diagnostic and other medically relevant findings.RESULTS In all, 3037 patients (91.6%) were over 21 years of age, and 1179 (35.6%) were of self-identified non-European ancestry. We detected diagnostic variants in 307 of the 3315 patients (9.3%), encompassing 66 different monogenic disorders. Of the disorders detected, 39 (59%) were found in only a single patient. Diagnostic variants were detected across all clinically defined categories, including congenital or cystic renal disease (127 of 531 patients [23.9%]) and nephropathy of unknown origin (48 of 281 patients [17.1%]). Of the 2187 patients assessed, 34 (1.6%) had genetic findings for medically actionable disorders that, although unrelated to their nephropathy, would also lead to subspecialty referral and inform renal management.CONCLUSIONS Exome sequencing in a combined cohort of more than 3000 patients with chronic kidney disease yielded a genetic diagnosis in just under 10% of cases.
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21. |
- Nyenswah, TG, et al.
(author)
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Ebola and Its Control in Liberia, 2014-2015
- 2016
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In: Emerging infectious diseases. - : Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). - 1080-6059 .- 1080-6040. ; 22:2, s. 169-177
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)
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22. |
- Willeit, Peter, et al.
(author)
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Natriuretic peptides and integrated risk assessment for cardiovascular disease : an individual-participant-data meta-analysis
- 2016
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In: The Lancet Diabetes and Endocrinology. - : Elsevier. - 2213-8587 .- 2213-8595. ; 4:10, s. 840-849
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Guidelines for primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases focus on prediction of coronary heart disease and stroke. We assessed whether or not measurement of N-terminal-pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) concentration could enable a more integrated approach than at present by predicting heart failure and enhancing coronary heart disease and stroke risk assessment. Methods: In this individual-participant-data meta-analysis, we generated and harmonised individual-participant data from relevant prospective studies via both de-novo NT-proBNP concentration measurement of stored samples and collection of data from studies identified through a systematic search of the literature (PubMed, Scientific Citation Index Expanded, and Embase) for articles published up to Sept 4, 2014, using search terms related to natriuretic peptide family members and the primary outcomes, with no language restrictions. We calculated risk ratios and measures of risk discrimination and reclassification across predicted 10 year risk categories (ie, <5%, 5% to <7.5%, and >= 7.5%), adding assessment of NT-proBNP concentration to that of conventional risk factors (ie, age, sex, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes, and total and HDL cholesterol concentrations). Primary outcomes were the combination of coronary heart disease and stroke, and the combination of coronary heart disease, stroke, and heart failure. Findings: We recorded 5500 coronary heart disease, 4002 stroke, and 2212 heart failure outcomes among 95617 participants without a history of cardiovascular disease in 40 prospective studies. Risk ratios (for a comparison of the top third vs bottom third of NT-proBNP concentrations, adjusted for conventional risk factors) were 1.76 (95% CI 1.56-1.98) for the combination of coronary heart disease and stroke and 2.00 (1.77-2.26) for the combination of coronary heart disease, stroke, and heart failure. Addition of information about NT-proBNP concentration to a model containing conventional risk factors was associated with a C-index increase of 0.012 (0.010-0.014) and a net reclassification improvement of 0.027 (0.019-0.036) for the combination of coronary heart disease and stroke and a C-index increase of 0.019 (0.016-0.022) and a net reclassification improvement of 0.028 (0.019-0.038) for the combination of coronary heart disease, stroke, and heart failure. Interpretation: In people without baseline cardiovascular disease, NT-proBNP concentration assessment strongly predicted first-onset heart failure and augmented coronary heart disease and stroke prediction, suggesting that NT-proBNP concentration assessment could be used to integrate heart failure into cardiovascular disease primary prevention.
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