| 1. |
- Grahn, Maria, 1963, et al.
(author)
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Regionalized Global Energy Scenarios Meeting Stringent Climate Targets - cost effective fuel choices in the transportation sector
- 2003
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In: Risö international energy conference in Denmark, 19-21 May 2003.
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Conference paper (other academic/artistic)abstract
- The aim of this study is to analyze the world's future energy supply, in general, and cost-effective fuel choices in the transportation sector, in particular, under stringent CO2 abatement targets. The analysis is carried out with the help of a global energy systems model GET-R 1.0, developed specifically for this project. It is a linear programming model and it has three end-use sectors: electricity, heat and transportation fuel. It is set up to generate the energy supply mix that would meet exogenously givenenergy demands at the lowest global energy system cost. We have chosen an upper limit on CO2 emissions corresponding to an atmospheric CO2 concentration target of 400 ppm, by the year 2100. We find that it is cost-effective to carry out the transition from gasoline/diesel in the middle of the century and that hydrogen becomes the most cost-efficient fuel in the long run. Within the electricity production sector all renewable energy sources show a pattern of increasing contributions during the century and solar produced hydrogen will dominate by year 2100. Biomass is the dominant fuel in the heat sector. Scenarios are also presented which show the effects of different way of regionalizing the model. Here significant changes may occur, in particular when it comes to the where solar hydrogen is being produced. Further, we compare our results with those generated using a globally aggregated version of the model. We find that the regionalization only marginally affects the general pattern.
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| 2. |
- Grahn, Maria, 1963, et al.
(author)
-
Regionalized Global Energy Scenarios Meeting Stringent CO2 Constraints - Cost-effective Fuel Choices for Transport
- 2003
-
In: EnerEnv'2003, the first conference on energy and environment in Changsha, China, 11-14 October 2003.
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Conference paper (other academic/artistic)abstract
- The aim of this study is to analyze the worlds future energy supply, in general, and cost-effective fuel choicesin the transportation sector, in particular, under stringent CO2 constraints. The analysis is carried out with the help of a global energy system model GET-R 1.0, developed specifically for this project. It is a linear programming model and it has three end-use sectors: electricity, heat and transportation fuel. It is set up to generate the energy supply mix that would meet exogenously given energy demands at the lowest global cost. We have chosen an upper limit on CO2 emissions corresponding to an atmospheric CO2 concentration target of 400 ppm, by the year 2100. We find that it is cost-effective to carry out the transition from gasoline/diesel in the middle of the century and that hydrogen becomes the most costefficient fuel in the long run. Within the electricity production sector all renewable energy sources show a pattern of increasing contributions during the century and solar produced hydrogen will dominate by year 2100. Biomass is the dominant fuel in the heat sector. Further, we compare our results with those generated using a globally aggregated version of the model. We find that the regionalization only marginally affects the general pattern.
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