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- Lind, Lars, et al.
(author)
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Heterogeneous contributions of change in population distribution of body mass index to change in obesity and underweight NCD Risk Factor Collaboration (NCD-RisC)
- 2021
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In: eLife. - : eLife Sciences Publications Ltd. - 2050-084X. ; 10
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- From 1985 to 2016, the prevalence of underweight decreased, and that of obesity and severe obesity increased, in most regions, with significant variation in the magnitude of these changes across regions. We investigated how much change in mean body mass index (BMI) explains changes in the prevalence of underweight, obesity, and severe obesity in different regions using data from 2896 population-based studies with 187 million participants. Changes in the prevalence of underweight and total obesity, and to a lesser extent severe obesity, are largely driven by shifts in the distribution of BMI, with smaller contributions from changes in the shape of the distribution. In East and Southeast Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, the underweight tail of the BMI distribution was left behind as the distribution shifted. There is a need for policies that address all forms of malnutrition by making healthy foods accessible and affordable, while restricting unhealthy foods through fiscal and regulatory restrictions.
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- Mishra, A, et al.
(author)
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Diminishing benefits of urban living for children and adolescents' growth and development
- 2023
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In: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1476-4687 .- 0028-0836. ; 615:7954, s. 874-883
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Optimal growth and development in childhood and adolescence is crucial for lifelong health and well-being1–6. Here we used data from 2,325 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight from 71 million participants, to report the height and body-mass index (BMI) of children and adolescents aged 5–19 years on the basis of rural and urban place of residence in 200 countries and territories from 1990 to 2020. In 1990, children and adolescents residing in cities were taller than their rural counterparts in all but a few high-income countries. By 2020, the urban height advantage became smaller in most countries, and in many high-income western countries it reversed into a small urban-based disadvantage. The exception was for boys in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa and in some countries in Oceania, south Asia and the region of central Asia, Middle East and north Africa. In these countries, successive cohorts of boys from rural places either did not gain height or possibly became shorter, and hence fell further behind their urban peers. The difference between the age-standardized mean BMI of children in urban and rural areas was <1.1 kg m–2 in the vast majority of countries. Within this small range, BMI increased slightly more in cities than in rural areas, except in south Asia, sub-Saharan Africa and some countries in central and eastern Europe. Our results show that in much of the world, the growth and developmental advantages of living in cities have diminished in the twenty-first century, whereas in much of sub-Saharan Africa they have amplified.
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- Taddei, C, et al.
(author)
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Repositioning of the global epicentre of non-optimal cholesterol
- 2020
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In: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1476-4687 .- 0028-0836. ; 582:7810, s. 73-
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- High blood cholesterol is typically considered a feature of wealthy western countries1,2. However, dietary and behavioural determinants of blood cholesterol are changing rapidly throughout the world3 and countries are using lipid-lowering medications at varying rates. These changes can have distinct effects on the levels of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and non-HDL cholesterol, which have different effects on human health4,5. However, the trends of HDL and non-HDL cholesterol levels over time have not been previously reported in a global analysis. Here we pooled 1,127 population-based studies that measured blood lipids in 102.6 million individuals aged 18 years and older to estimate trends from 1980 to 2018 in mean total, non-HDL and HDL cholesterol levels for 200 countries. Globally, there was little change in total or non-HDL cholesterol from 1980 to 2018. This was a net effect of increases in low- and middle-income countries, especially in east and southeast Asia, and decreases in high-income western countries, especially those in northwestern Europe, and in central and eastern Europe. As a result, countries with the highest level of non-HDL cholesterol—which is a marker of cardiovascular risk—changed from those in western Europe such as Belgium, Finland, Greenland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and Malta in 1980 to those in Asia and the Pacific, such as Tokelau, Malaysia, The Philippines and Thailand. In 2017, high non-HDL cholesterol was responsible for an estimated 3.9 million (95% credible interval 3.7 million–4.2 million) worldwide deaths, half of which occurred in east, southeast and south Asia. The global repositioning of lipid-related risk, with non-optimal cholesterol shifting from a distinct feature of high-income countries in northwestern Europe, north America and Australasia to one that affects countries in east and southeast Asia and Oceania should motivate the use of population-based policies and personal interventions to improve nutrition and enhance access to treatment throughout the world.
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- Kaptoge, S., et al.
(author)
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Life expectancy associated with different ages at diagnosis of type 2 diabetes in high-income countries: 23 million person-years of observation
- 2023
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In: The Lancet Diabetes and Endocrinology. - : Elsevier. - 2213-8587 .- 2213-8595. ; 11:10, s. 731-742
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: The prevalence of type 2 diabetes is increasing rapidly, particularly among younger age groups. Estimates suggest that people with diabetes die, on average, 6 years earlier than people without diabetes. We aimed to provide reliable estimates of the associations between age at diagnosis of diabetes and all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and reductions in life expectancy. Methods: For this observational study, we conducted a combined analysis of individual-participant data from 19 high-income countries using two large-scale data sources: the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (96 cohorts, median baseline years 1961–2007, median latest follow-up years 1980–2013) and the UK Biobank (median baseline year 2006, median latest follow-up year 2020). We calculated age-adjusted and sex-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for all-cause mortality according to age at diagnosis of diabetes using data from 1 515 718 participants, in whom deaths were recorded during 23·1 million person-years of follow-up. We estimated cumulative survival by applying age-specific HRs to age-specific death rates from 2015 for the USA and the EU. Findings: For participants with diabetes, we observed a linear dose–response association between earlier age at diagnosis and higher risk of all-cause mortality compared with participants without diabetes. HRs were 2·69 (95% CI 2·43–2·97) when diagnosed at 30–39 years, 2·26 (2·08–2·45) at 40–49 years, 1·84 (1·72–1·97) at 50–59 years, 1·57 (1·47–1·67) at 60–69 years, and 1·39 (1·29–1·51) at 70 years and older. HRs per decade of earlier diagnosis were similar for men and women. Using death rates from the USA, a 50-year-old individual with diabetes died on average 14 years earlier when diagnosed aged 30 years, 10 years earlier when diagnosed aged 40 years, or 6 years earlier when diagnosed aged 50 years than an individual without diabetes. Using EU death rates, the corresponding estimates were 13, 9, or 5 years earlier. Interpretation: Every decade of earlier diagnosis of diabetes was associated with about 3–4 years of lower life expectancy, highlighting the need to develop and implement interventions that prevent or delay the onset of diabetes and to intensify the treatment of risk factors among young adults diagnosed with diabetes. Funding: British Heart Foundation, Medical Research Council, National Institute for Health and Care Research, and Health Data Research UK.
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8. |
- Bahls, M., et al.
(author)
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Progression of conventional cardiovascular risk factors and vascular disease risk in individuals: insights from the PROG-IMT consortium
- 2020
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In: European Journal of Preventive Cardiology. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 2047-4873 .- 2047-4881. ; 27:3
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Aims: Averaged measurements, but not the progression based on multiple assessments of carotid intima-media thickness, (cIMT) are predictive of cardiovascular disease (CVD) events in individuals. Whether this is true for conventional risk factors is unclear. Methods and results: An individual participant meta-analysis was used to associate the annualised progression of systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol with future cardiovascular disease risk in 13 prospective cohort studies of the PROG-IMT collaboration (n = 34,072). Follow-up data included information on a combined cardiovascular disease endpoint of myocardial infarction, stroke, or vascular death. In secondary analyses, annualised progression was replaced with average. Log hazard ratios per standard deviation difference were pooled across studies by a random effects meta-analysis. In primary analysis, the annualised progression of total cholesterol was marginally related to a higher cardiovascular disease risk (hazard ratio (HR) 1.04, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.00 to 1.07). The annualised progression of systolic blood pressure, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol was not associated with future cardiovascular disease risk. In secondary analysis, average systolic blood pressure (HR 1.20 95% CI 1.11 to 1.29) and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HR 1.09, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.16) were related to a greater, while high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HR 0.92, 95% CI 0.88 to 0.97) was related to a lower risk of future cardiovascular disease events. Conclusion: Averaged measurements of systolic blood pressure, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol displayed significant linear relationships with the risk of future cardiovascular disease events. However, there was no clear association between the annualised progression of these conventional risk factors in individuals with the risk of future clinical endpoints. © The European Society of Cardiology 2019.
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- Tschiderer, L., et al.
(author)
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Association of Intima-Media Thickness Measured at the Common Carotid Artery With Incident Carotid Plaque: Individual Participant Data Meta-Analysis of 20 Prospective Studies
- 2023
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In: Journal of the American Heart Association (JAHA). - 2047-9980. ; 12:12
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BackgroundThe association between common carotid artery intima-media thickness (CCA-IMT) and incident carotid plaque has not been characterized fully. We therefore aimed to precisely quantify the relationship between CCA-IMT and carotid plaque development. Methods and ResultsWe undertook an individual participant data meta-analysis of 20 prospective studies from the Proof-ATHERO (Prospective Studies of Atherosclerosis) consortium that recorded baseline CCA-IMT and incident carotid plaque involving 21 494 individuals without a history of cardiovascular disease and without preexisting carotid plaque at baseline. Mean baseline age was 56 years (SD, 9 years), 55% were women, and mean baseline CCA-IMT was 0.71 mm (SD, 0.17 mm). Over a median follow-up of 5.9 years (5th-95th percentile, 1.9-19.0 years), 8278 individuals developed first-ever carotid plaque. We combined study-specific odds ratios (ORs) for incident carotid plaque using random-effects meta-analysis. Baseline CCA-IMT was approximately log-linearly associated with the odds of developing carotid plaque. The age-, sex-, and trial arm-adjusted OR for carotid plaque per SD higher baseline CCA-IMT was 1.40 (95% CI, 1.31-1.50; I-2=63.9%). The corresponding OR that was further adjusted for ethnicity, smoking, diabetes, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, low- and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and lipid-lowering and antihypertensive medication was 1.34 (95% CI, 1.24-1.45; I-2=59.4%; 14 studies; 16 297 participants; 6381 incident plaques). We observed no significant effect modification across clinically relevant subgroups. Sensitivity analysis restricted to studies defining plaque as focal thickening yielded a comparable OR (1.38 [95% CI, 1.29-1.47]; I-2=57.1%; 14 studies; 17 352 participants; 6991 incident plaques). ConclusionsOur large-scale individual participant data meta-analysis demonstrated that CCA-IMT is associated with the long-term risk of developing first-ever carotid plaque, independent of traditional cardiovascular risk factors.
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11. |
- Gaziano, Liam, et al.
(author)
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Mild-to-moderate kidney dysfunction and cardiovascular disease : Observational and mendelian randomization analyses
- 2022
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In: Circulation. - : Wolters Kluwer. - 0009-7322 .- 1524-4539. ; 146:20, s. 1507-1517
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND: End-stage renal disease is associated with a high risk of cardiovascular events. It is unknown, however, whether mild-to-moderate kidney dysfunction is causally related to coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke.METHODS: Observational analyses were conducted using individual-level data from 4 population data sources (Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration, EPIC-CVD [European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Cardiovascular Disease Study], Million Veteran Program, and UK Biobank), comprising 648 135 participants with no history of cardiovascular disease or diabetes at baseline, yielding 42 858 and 15 693 incident CHD and stroke events, respectively, during 6.8 million person-years of follow-up. Using a genetic risk score of 218 variants for estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), we conducted Mendelian randomization analyses involving 413 718 participants (25 917 CHD and 8622 strokes) in EPIC-CVD, Million Veteran Program, and UK Biobank.RESULTS: There were U-shaped observational associations of creatinine-based eGFR with CHD and stroke, with higher risk in participants with eGFR values <60 or >105 mL·min-1·1.73 m-2, compared with those with eGFR between 60 and 105 mL·min-1·1.73 m-2. Mendelian randomization analyses for CHD showed an association among participants with eGFR <60 mL·min-1·1.73 m-2, with a 14% (95% CI, 3%-27%) higher CHD risk per 5 mL·min-1·1.73 m-2 lower genetically predicted eGFR, but not for those with eGFR >105 mL·min-1·1.73 m-2. Results were not materially different after adjustment for factors associated with the eGFR genetic risk score, such as lipoprotein(a), triglycerides, hemoglobin A1c, and blood pressure. Mendelian randomization results for stroke were nonsignificant but broadly similar to those for CHD.CONCLUSIONS: In people without manifest cardiovascular disease or diabetes, mild-to-moderate kidney dysfunction is causally related to risk of CHD, highlighting the potential value of preventive approaches that preserve and modulate kidney function.
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- Bonomi, A, et al.
(author)
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Analysis of the genetic variants associated with circulating levels of sgp130. Results from the IMPROVE study
- 2020
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In: Genes and immunity. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1476-5470 .- 1466-4879. ; 21:2, s. 100-108
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The genes regulating circulating levels of soluble gp130 (sgp130), the antagonist of the inflammatory response in atherosclerosis driven by interleukin 6, are largely unknown. Aims of the present study were to identify genetic loci associated with circulating sgp130 and to explore the potential association between variants associated with sgp130 and markers of subclinical atherosclerosis. The study is based on IMPROVE (n = 3703), a cardiovascular multicentre study designed to investigate the determinants of carotid intima media thickness, a measure of subclinical atherosclerosis. Genomic DNA was genotyped by the CardioMetaboChip and ImmunoChip. About 360,842 SNPs were tested for association with log-transformed sgp130, using linear regression adjusted for age, gender, and population stratification using PLINK v1.07. A p value of 1 × 10−5 was chosen as threshold for significance value. In an exploratory analysis, SNPs associated with sgp130 were tested for association with c-IMT measures. We identified two SNPs significantly associated with sgp130 levels and 24 showing suggestive association with sgp130 levels. One SNP (rs17688225) on chromosome 14 was positively associated with sgp130 serum levels (β = 0.03 SE = 0.007, p = 4.77 × 10−5) and inversely associated with c-IMT (c-IMTmean–maxβ = −0.001 SE = 0.005, p = 0.0342). Our data indicate that multiple loci regulate sgp130 levels and suggest a possible common pathway between sgp130 and c-IMT measures.
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13. |
- Nonterah, Engelbert A., et al.
(author)
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Racial and Ethnic Differences in the Association Between Classical Cardiovascular Risk Factors and Common Carotid Intima-Media Thickness : An Individual Participant Data Meta-Analysis
- 2022
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In: Journal of the American Heart Association. - 2047-9980. ; 11:15
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND: The major risk factors for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease differ by race or ethnicity but have largely been defined using populations of European ancestry. Despite the rising prevalence of cardiovascular disease in Africa there are few related data from African populations. Therefore, we compared the association of established cardiovascular risk factors with carotid-intima media thickness (CIMT), a subclinical marker of atherosclerosis, between African, African American, Asian, European, and Hispanic populations. METHODS AND RESULTS: Cross-sectional analyses of 34 025 men and women drawn from 15 cohorts in Africa, Asia, Europe, and North America were undertaken. Classical cardiovascular risk factors were assessed and CIMT measured using B-mode ultrasound. Ethnic differences in the association of established cardiovascular risk factors with CIMT were determined using a 2-stage individual participant data meta-analysis with beta coefficients expressed as a percentage using the White population as the reference group. CIMT adjusted for risk factors was the greatest among African American populations followed by Asian, European, and Hispanic populations with African populations having the lowest mean CIMT. In all racial or ethnic groups, men had higher CIMT levels compared with women. Age, sex, body mass index, and systolic blood pressure had a significant positive association with CIMT in all races and ethnicities at varying magnitudes. When compared with European populations, the association of age, sex, and systolic blood pressure with CIMT was weaker in all races and ethnicities. Smoking (beta coeffi-cient, 0.39; 95% CI, 0.09– 0.70), body mass index (beta coefficient, 0.05; 95% CI, 0.01– 0.08) and glucose (beta coefficient, 0.13; 95% CI, 0.06– 0.19) had the strongest positive association with CIMT in the Asian population when compared with all other racial and ethnic groups. High-density lipoprotein-cholesterol had significant protective effects in African American (beta coefficient, −0.31; 95% CI, −0.42 to −0.21) and African (beta coefficient, −0.26; 95% CI, −0.31 to −0.19) populations only. CONCLUSIONS: The strength of association between established cardiovascular risk factors and CIMT differed across the racial or ethnic groups and may be due to lifestyle risk factors and genetics. These differences have implications for race-ethnicity-specific primary prevention strategies and also give insights into the differential contribution of risk factors to the pathogenesis of cardiovascular disease. The greatest burden of subclinical atherosclerosis in African American individuals warrants further investigations.
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- Tschiderer, Lena, et al.
(author)
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Association of Intima-Media Thickness Measured at the Common Carotid Artery With Incident Carotid Plaque : Individual Participant Data Meta-Analysis of 20 Prospective Studies
- 2023
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In: Journal of the American Heart Association. - : Ovid Technologies (Wolters Kluwer Health). - 2047-9980. ; 12:12
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: The association between common carotid artery intima-media thickness (CCA-IMT) and incident carotid plaque has not been characterized fully. We therefore aimed to precisely quantify the relationship between CCA-IMT and carotid plaque development.Methods and Results: We undertook an individual participant data meta-analysis of 20 prospective studies from the Proof-ATHERO (Prospective Studies of Atherosclerosis) consortium that recorded baseline CCA-IMT and incident carotid plaque involving 21 494 individuals without a history of cardiovascular disease and without preexisting carotid plaque at baseline. Mean baseline age was 56 years (SD, 9 years), 55% were women, and mean baseline CCA-IMT was 0.71 mm (SD, 0.17 mm). Over a median follow-up of 5.9 years (5th-95th percentile, 1.9-19.0 years), 8278 individuals developed first-ever carotid plaque. We combined study-specific odds ratios (ORs) for incident carotid plaque using random-effects meta-analysis. Baseline CCA-IMT was approximately log-linearly associated with the odds of developing carotid plaque. The age-, sex-, and trial arm-adjusted OR for carotid plaque per SD higher baseline CCA-IMT was 1.40 (95% CI, 1.31-1.50; I-2=63.9%). The corresponding OR that was further adjusted for ethnicity, smoking, diabetes, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, low- and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and lipid-lowering and antihypertensive medication was 1.34 (95% CI, 1.24-1.45; I-2=59.4%; 14 studies; 16 297 participants; 6381 incident plaques). We observed no significant effect modification across clinically relevant subgroups. Sensitivity analysis restricted to studies defining plaque as focal thickening yielded a comparable OR (1.38 [95% CI, 1.29-1.47]; I-2=57.1%; 14 studies; 17 352 participants; 6991 incident plaques).Conclusions: Our large-scale individual participant data meta-analysis demonstrated that CCA-IMT is associated with the long-term risk of developing first-ever carotid plaque, independent of traditional cardiovascular risk factors.
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