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- Arndt, D. S., et al.
(author)
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STATE OF THE CLIMATE IN 2017
- 2018
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In: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - : American Meteorological Society. - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 99:8, s. S1-S310
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Research review (peer-reviewed)
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| 9. |
- Arndt, D. S., et al.
(author)
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State of the Climate in 2016
- 2017
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In: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 98:8, s. S1-S280
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- In 2016, the dominant greenhouse gases released into Earth's atmosphere-carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide-continued to increase and reach new record highs. The 3.5 +/- 0.1 ppm rise in global annual mean carbon dioxide from 2015 to 2016 was the largest annual increase observed in the 58-year measurement record. The annual global average carbon dioxide concentration at Earth's surface surpassed 400 ppm (402.9 +/- 0.1 ppm) for the first time in the modern atmospheric measurement record and in ice core records dating back as far as 800000 years. One of the strongest El Nino events since at least 1950 dissipated in spring, and a weak La Nina evolved later in the year. Owing at least in part to the combination of El Nino conditions early in the year and a long-term upward trend, Earth's surface observed record warmth for a third consecutive year, albeit by a much slimmer margin than by which that record was set in 2015. Above Earth's surface, the annual lower troposphere temperature was record high according to all datasets analyzed, while the lower stratospheric temperature was record low according to most of the in situ and satellite datasets. Several countries, including Mexico and India, reported record high annual temperatures while many others observed near-record highs. A week-long heat wave at the end of April over the northern and eastern Indian peninsula, with temperatures surpassing 44 degrees C, contributed to a water crisis for 330 million people and to 300 fatalities. In the Arctic the 2016 land surface temperature was 2.0 degrees C above the 1981-2010 average, breaking the previous record of 2007, 2011, and 2015 by 0.8 degrees C, representing a 3.5 degrees C increase since the record began in 1900. The increasing temperatures have led to decreasing Arctic sea ice extent and thickness. On 24 March, the sea ice extent at the end of the growth season saw its lowest maximum in the 37-year satellite record, tying with 2015 at 7.2% below the 1981-2010 average. The September 2016 Arctic sea ice minimum extent tied with 2007 for the second lowest value on record, 33% lower than the 1981-2010 average. Arctic sea ice cover remains relatively young and thin, making it vulnerable to continued extensive melt. The mass of the Greenland Ice Sheet, which has the capacity to contribute similar to 7 m to sea level rise, reached a record low value. The onset of its surface melt was the second earliest, after 2012, in the 37-year satellite record. Sea surface temperature was record high at the global scale, surpassing the previous record of 2015 by about 0.01 degrees C. The global sea surface temperature trend for the 21st century-to-date of +0.162 degrees C decade(-1) is much higher than the longer term 1950-2016 trend of +0.100 degrees C decade(-1). Global annual mean sea level also reached a new record high, marking the sixth consecutive year of increase. Global annual ocean heat content saw a slight drop compared to the record high in 2015. Alpine glacier retreat continued around the globe, and preliminary data indicate that 2016 is the 37th consecutive year of negative annual mass balance. Across the Northern Hemisphere, snow cover for each month from February to June was among its four least extensive in the 47-year satellite record. Continuing a pattern below the surface, record high temperatures at 20-m depth were measured at all permafrost observatories on the North Slope of Alaska and at the Canadian observatory on northernmost Ellesmere Island. In the Antarctic, record low monthly surface pressures were broken at many stations, with the southern annular mode setting record high index values in March and June. Monthly high surface pressure records for August and November were set at several stations. During this period, record low daily and monthly sea ice extents were observed, with the November mean sea ice extent more than 5 standard deviations below the 1981-2010 average. These record low sea ice values contrast sharply with the record high values observed during 2012-14. Over the region, springtime Antarctic stratospheric ozone depletion was less severe relative to the 1991-2006 average, but ozone levels were still low compared to pre-1990 levels. Closer to the equator, 93 named tropical storms were observed during 2016, above the 1981-2010 average of 82, but fewer than the 101 storms recorded in 2015. Three basins-the North Atlantic, and eastern and western North Pacific-experienced above-normal activity in 2016. The Australian basin recorded its least active season since the beginning of the satellite era in 1970. Overall, four tropical cyclones reached the Saffir-Simpson category 5 intensity level. The strong El Nino at the beginning of the year that transitioned to a weak La Nina contributed to enhanced precipitation variability around the world. Wet conditions were observed throughout the year across southern South America, causing repeated heavy flooding in Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay. Wetter-than-usual conditions were also observed for eastern Europe and central Asia, alleviating the drought conditions of 2014 and 2015 in southern Russia. In the United States, California had its first wetter-than-average year since 2012, after being plagued by drought for several years. Even so, the area covered by drought in 2016 at the global scale was among the largest in the post-1950 record. For each month, at least 12% of land surfaces experienced severe drought conditions or worse, the longest such stretch in the record. In northeastern Brazil, drought conditions were observed for the fifth consecutive year, making this the longest drought on record in the region. Dry conditions were also observed in western Bolivia and Peru; it was Bolivia's worst drought in the past 25 years. In May, with abnormally warm and dry conditions already prevailing over western Canada for about a year, the human-induced Fort McMurray wildfire burned nearly 590000 hectares and became the costliest disaster in Canadian history, with $3 billion (U.S. dollars) in insured losses.
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| 10. |
- Aaron-Morrison, Arlene P., et al.
(author)
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State of the climate in 2014
- 2015
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In: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. - : American Meteorological Society. - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 96
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Most of the dozens of essential climate variables monitored each year in this report continued to follow their long-term trends in 2014, with several setting new records. Carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide-the major greenhouse gases released into Earth's atmosphere-once again all reached record high average atmospheric concentrations for the year. Carbon dioxide increased by 1.9 ppm to reach a globally averaged value of 397.2 ppm for 2014. Altogether, 5 major and 15 minor greenhouse gases contributed 2.94 W m-2 of direct radiative forcing, which is 36% greater than their contributions just a quarter century ago. Accompanying the record-high greenhouse gas concentrations was nominally the highest annual global surface temperature in at least 135 years of modern record keeping, according to four independent observational analyses. The warmth was distributed widely around the globe's land areas, Europe observed its warmest year on record by a large margin, with close to two dozen countries breaking their previous national temperature records; many countries in Asia had annual temperatures among their 10 warmest on record; Africa reported above-average temperatures across most of the continent throughout 2014; Australia saw its third warmest year on record, following record heat there in 2013; Mexico had its warmest year on record; and Argentina and Uruguay each had their second warmest year on record. Eastern North America was the only major region to observe a below-average annual temperature. But it was the oceans that drove the record global surface temperature in 2014. Although 2014 was largely ENSO-neutral, the globally averaged sea surface temperature (SST) was the highest on record. The warmth was particularly notable in the North Pacific Ocean where SST anomalies signaled a transition from a negative to positive phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation. In the winter of 2013/14, unusually warm water in the northeast Pacific was associated with elevated ocean heat content anomalies and elevated sea level in the region. Globally, upper ocean heat content was record high for the year, reflecting the continued increase of thermal energy in the oceans, which absorb over 90% of Earth's excess heat from greenhouse gas forcing. Owing to both ocean warming and land ice melt contributions, global mean sea level in 2014 was also record high and 67 mm greater than the 1993 annual mean, when satellite altimetry measurements began. Sea surface salinity trends over the past decade indicate that salty regions grew saltier while fresh regions became fresher, suggestive of an increased hydrological cycle over the ocean expected with global warming. As in previous years, these patterns are reflected in 2014 subsurface salinity anomalies as well. With a now decade-long trans-basin instrument array along 26°N, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation shows a decrease in transport of-4.2 ± 2.5 Sv decade-1. Precipitation was quite variable across the globe. On balance, precipitation over the world's oceans was above average, while below average across land surfaces. Drought continued in southeastern Brazil and the western United States. Heavy rain during April-June led to devastating floods in Canada's Eastern Prairies. Above-normal summer monsoon rainfall was observed over the southern coast of West Africa, while drier conditions prevailed over the eastern Sahel. Generally, summer monsoon rainfall over eastern Africa was above normal, except in parts of western South Sudan and Ethiopia. The south Asian summer monsoon in India was below normal, with June record dry. Across the major tropical cyclone basins, 91 named storms were observed during 2014, above the 1981-2010 global average of 82. The Eastern/Central Pacific and South Indian Ocean basins experienced significantly above-normal activity in 2014; all other basins were either at or below normal. The 22 named storms in the Eastern/Central Pacific was the basin's most since 1992. Similar to 2013, the North Atlantic season was quieter than most years of the last two decades with respect to the number of storms, despite the absence of El Niño conditions during both years. In higher latitudes and at higher elevations, increased warming continued to be visible in the decline of glacier mass balance, increasing permafrost temperatures, and a deeper thawing layer in seasonally frozen soil. In the Arctic, the 2014 temperature over land areas was the fourth highest in the 115-year period of record and snow melt occurred 20-30 days earlier than the 1998-2010 average. The Greenland Ice Sheet experienced extensive melting in summer 2014. The extent of melting was above the 1981-2010 average for 90% of the melt season, contributing to the second lowest average summer albedo over Greenland since observations began in 2000 and a record-low albedo across the ice sheet for August. On the North Slope of Alaska, new record high temperatures at 20-m depth were measured at four of five permafrost observatories. In September, Arctic minimum sea ice extent was the sixth lowest since satellite records began in 1979. The eight lowest sea ice extents during this period have occurred in the last eight years. Conversely, in the Antarctic, sea ice extent countered its declining trend and set several new records in 2014, including record high monthly mean sea ice extent each month from April to November. On 20 September, a record large daily Antarctic sea ice extent of 20.14 × 106 km2 occurred. The 2014 Antarctic stratospheric ozone hole was 20.9 million km2 when averaged from 7 September to 13 October, the sixth smallest on record and continuing a decrease, albeit statistically insignificant, in area since 1998.
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| 11. |
- Abbott, Benjamin W., et al.
(author)
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Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire : an expert assessment
- 2016
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In: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9326. ; 11:3
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%-85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced.
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| 12. |
- Law, PJ, et al.
(author)
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Genome-wide association analysis implicates dysregulation of immunity genes in chronic lymphocytic leukaemia
- 2017
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In: Nature communications. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2041-1723. ; 8, s. 14175-
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Several chronic lymphocytic leukaemia (CLL) susceptibility loci have been reported; however, much of the heritable risk remains unidentified. Here we perform a meta-analysis of six genome-wide association studies, imputed using a merged reference panel of 1,000 Genomes and UK10K data, totalling 6,200 cases and 17,598 controls after replication. We identify nine risk loci at 1p36.11 (rs34676223, P=5.04 × 10−13), 1q42.13 (rs41271473, P=1.06 × 10−10), 4q24 (rs71597109, P=1.37 × 10−10), 4q35.1 (rs57214277, P=3.69 × 10−8), 6p21.31 (rs3800461, P=1.97 × 10−8), 11q23.2 (rs61904987, P=2.64 × 10−11), 18q21.1 (rs1036935, P=3.27 × 10−8), 19p13.3 (rs7254272, P=4.67 × 10−8) and 22q13.33 (rs140522, P=2.70 × 10−9). These new and established risk loci map to areas of active chromatin and show an over-representation of transcription factor binding for the key determinants of B-cell development and immune response.
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| 15. |
- Mansouri, Larry, et al.
(author)
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Frequent NFKBIE deletions are associated with poor outcome in primary mediastinal B-cell lymphoma
- 2016
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In: Blood. - : American Society of Hematology. - 0006-4971 .- 1528-0020. ; 128:23, s. 2666-2670
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We recently reported a truncating deletion in the NFKBIE gene, which encodes IκBϵ, a negative feedback regulator of NF-κB, in clinically aggressive chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL). Preliminary data indicate enrichment of NFKBIE aberrations in other lymphoid malignancies, hence we screened a large patient cohort (n=1460) diagnosed with different lymphoid neoplasms. While NFKBIE deletions were infrequent in follicular lymphoma, splenic marginal-zone lymphoma, and T-cell acute lymphoblastic leukemia (<2%), slightly higher frequencies were seen in diffuse large B-cell lymphoma, mantle cell lymphoma, and primary CNS lymphoma (3-4%). In contrast, a remarkably high frequency of NFKBIE aberrations (46/203 cases, 22.7%) was observed in primary mediastinal B-cell lymphoma (PMBL) and Hodgkin lymphoma (3/11 cases, 27.3%). NFKBIE-deleted PMBL patients were more often therapy-refractory (P=.022) and displayed inferior outcome compared to wildtype patients (5-year survival: 59% vs. 78%; P=.034); however they appeared to benefit from radiotherapy (P=.022) and rituximab-containing regimens (P=.074). NFKBIEaberrations remained an independent factor in multivariate analysis (P=.003), also when restricting to immunochemotherapy-treated patients (P=.008). Whole-exome sequencing and gene expression-profiling verified the importance of NF-κB deregulation in PMBL. In summary, we identify NFKBIE aberrations as a common genetic event across B-cell malignancies and highlight NFKBIE deletions as a novel poor-prognostic marker in PMBL.
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| 17. |
- Hodapp, Klaus W., et al.
(author)
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The New EXor Outburst of ESO-H alpha 99 Observed by Gaia ATLAS and TESS
- 2019
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In: Astronomical Journal. - : IOP PUBLISHING LTD. - 0004-6256 .- 1538-3881. ; 158:6
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We report photometry and spectroscopy of the outburst of the young stellar object ESO-H?99. The outburst was first noticed in Gaia alert Gaia18dvc and later by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS). We have established the outburst light curve with archival ATLAS orange filter photometry, Gaia data, new V-band photometry, and J, H, and K-s photometry from the Infrared Imaging System (IRIS) and the United Kingdom Infrared Telescope (UKIRT). The brightness has fluctuated several times near the light curve maximum. The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) satellite observed ESO-H99 with high cadence during one of these minor minima and found brightness fluctuations on timescales of days and hours. Imaging with UKIRT shows the outline of an outflow cavity, and we find one knot of emission, now named MHO 1520, on the symmetry axis of this nebula, indicating recent collimated outflow activity from ESO-H99. Its pre-outburst SED shows a flat far-infrared spectrum, confirming its early evolutionary state and its similarity to other deeply embedded objects in the broader EXor class. The pre-outburst luminosity is 34 L, a much higher luminosity than typical EXors, indicating that ESO-H alpha 99 may be a star of intermediate mass. Infrared and optical spectroscopy show a rich emission-line spectrum, including H i lines, strong red Ca ii emission, as well as infrared CO bandhead emission, all characteristic EXors in the broadest sense. Comparison of the present spectra with an optical spectrum obtained in 1993, presumably in the quiescent state of the object, shows that during the present outburst the continuum component of the spectrum has increased notably more than the emission lines. The H alpha equivalent width during the outburst is down to one-half of its 1993 level, and shock-excited emission lines are much less prominent.
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| 18. |
- Leavitt, Steven D., et al.
(author)
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Multiple, Distinct Intercontinental Lineages but Isolation of Australian Populations in a Cosmopolitan Lichen-Forming Fungal Taxon, Psora decipiens (Psoraceae, Ascomycota)
- 2018
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In: Frontiers in Microbiology. - : FRONTIERS MEDIA SA. - 1664-302X. ; 9
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Multiple drivers shape the spatial distribution of species, including dispersal capacity, niche incumbency, climate variability, orographic barriers, and plate tectonics. However, biogeographic patterns of fungi commonly do not fit conventional expectations based on studies of animals and plants. Fungi, in general, are known to occur across exceedingly broad, intercontinental distributions, including some important components of biological soil crust communities (BSCs). However, molecular data often reveal unexpected biogeographic patterns in lichenized fungal species that are assumed to have cosmopolitan distributions. The lichen-forming fungal species Psora decipiens is found on all continents, except Antarctica and occurs in BSCs across diverse habitats, ranging from hot, arid deserts to alpine habitats. In order to better understand factors that shape population structure in cosmopolitan lichen-forming fungal species, we investigated biogeographic patterns in the cosmopolitan taxon P. decipiens, along with the closely related taxa P. crenata and P. saviczii. We generated a multi-locus sequence dataset based on a worldwide sampling of these taxa in order to reconstruct evolutionary relationships and explore phylogeographic patterns. Both P. crenata and P. decipiens were not recovered as monophyletic; and P. saviczii specimens were recovered as a monophyletic clade closely related to a number of lineages comprised of specimens representing P. decipiens. Striking phylogeographic patterns were observed for P. crenata, with populations from distinct geographic regions belonging to well-separated, monophyletic lineages. South African populations of P. crenata were further divided into well-supported sub-clades. While well-supported phylogenetic substructure was also observed for the nominal taxon P. decipiens, nearly all lineages were comprised of specimens collected from intercontinental populations. However, all Australian specimens representing P. decipiens were recovered within a single well-supported monophyletic clade consisting solely of Australian samples. Our study supports up to 10 candidate species-level lineages in P. decipiens, based on genealogical concordance and coalescent-based species delimitation analyses. Our results support the general pattern of the biogeographic isolation of lichen-forming fungal populations in Australia, even in cases where closely related congeners have documented intercontinental distributions. Our study has important implications for understanding factors influencing diversification and distributions of lichens associated with BSC.
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