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| 4. |
- Bixby, H., et al.
(author)
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Rising rural body-mass index is the main driver of the global obesity epidemic in adults
- 2019
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In: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 569:7755, s. 260-4
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Body-mass index (BMI) has increased steadily in most countries in parallel with a rise in the proportion of the population who live in cities(.)(1,2) This has led to a widely reported view that urbanization is one of the most important drivers of the global rise in obesity(3-6). Here we use 2,009 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in more than 112 million adults, to report national, regional and global trends in mean BMI segregated by place of residence (a rural or urban area) from 1985 to 2017. We show that, contrary to the dominant paradigm, more than 55% of the global rise in mean BMI from 1985 to 2017-and more than 80% in some low- and middle-income regions-was due to increases in BMI in rural areas. This large contribution stems from the fact that, with the exception of women in sub-Saharan Africa, BMI is increasing at the same rate or faster in rural areas than in cities in low- and middle-income regions. These trends have in turn resulted in a closing-and in some countries reversal-of the gap in BMI between urban and rural areas in low- and middle-income countries, especially for women. In high-income and industrialized countries, we noted a persistently higher rural BMI, especially for women. There is an urgent need for an integrated approach to rural nutrition that enhances financial and physical access to healthy foods, to avoid replacing the rural undernutrition disadvantage in poor countries with a more general malnutrition disadvantage that entails excessive consumption of low-quality calories.
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| 5. |
- Adam, J., et al.
(author)
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Forward-backward multiplicity correlations in pp collisions at root s=0.9, 2.76 and 7 TeV
- 2015
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In: Journal of High Energy Physics. - 1029-8479. ; :5
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The strength of forward-backward (FB) multiplicity correlations is measured by the ALICE detector in proton-proton (pp) collisions at = 0.9, 2.76 and 7 TeV. The measurement is performed in the central pseudorapidity region (|eta| < 0.8) for the transverse momentum p (T) > 0.3 GeV/c. Two separate pseudorapidity windows of width (delta eta) ranging from 0.2 to 0.8 are chosen symmetrically around eta = 0. The multiplicity correlation strength (b (corr)) is studied as a function of the pseudorapidity gap (eta (gap)) between the two windows as well as the width of these windows. The correlation strength is found to decrease with increasing eta (gap) and shows a non-linear increase with delta eta. A sizable increase of the correlation strength with the collision energy, which cannot be explained exclusively by the increase of the mean multiplicity inside the windows, is observed. The correlation coefficient is also measured for multiplicities in different configurations of two azimuthal sectors selected within the symmetric FB eta-windows. Two different contributions, the short-range (SR) and the long-range (LR), are observed. The energy dependence of b (corr) is found to be weak for the SR component while it is strong for the LR component. Moreover, the correlation coefficient is studied for particles belonging to various transverse momentum intervals chosen to have the same mean multiplicity. Both SR and LR contributions to b (corr) are found to increase with p (T) in this case. Results are compared to PYTHIA and PHOJET event generators and to a string-based phenomenological model. The observed dependencies of b (corr) add new constraints on phenomenological models.
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| 6. |
- Adam, J., et al.
(author)
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One-dimensional pion, kaon, and proton femtoscopy in Pb-Pb collisions at root(NN)-N-S=2.76 TeV
- 2015
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In: Physical Review C (Nuclear Physics). - 0556-2813. ; 92:5
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The size of the particle emission region in high-energy collisions can be deduced using the femtoscopic correlations of particle pairs at low relative momentum. Such correlations arise due to quantum statistics and Coulomb and strong final state interactions. In this paper, results are presented from femtoscopic analyses of pi(+/-) pi(+/-), K-+/- K-+/-, K-S(0) K-S(0), pp, and (pp) over bar correlations from Pb-Pb collisions at root s(NN) = 2.76 TeV by the ALICE experiment at the LHC. One-dimensional radii of the system are extracted from correlation functions in terms of the invariant momentum difference of the pair. The comparison of the measured radii with the predictions from a hydrokinetic model is discussed. The pion and kaon source radii display a monotonic decrease with increasing average pair transverse mass m(T) which is consistent with hydrodynamic model predictions for central collisions. The kaon and proton source sizes can be reasonably described by approximate m(T) scaling.
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| 7. |
- Adam, J., et al.
(author)
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Centrality dependence of high-p(T) D meson suppression in Pb-Pb collisions at root s(NN)=2.76 TeV
- 2015
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In: Journal of High Energy Physics. - 1029-8479. ; :11
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The nuclear modification factor, R-AA, of the prompt charmed mesons D-0, D+ and D*+, and their antiparticles, was measured with the ALICE detector in Pb-Pb collisions at a centre-of-mass energy root s(NN) = 2 : 76 TeV in two transverse momentum intervals, 5 < p(T) < 8 GeV/c and 8 < p(T) < 16 GeV/c, and in six collision centrality classes. The R-AA shows a maximum suppression of a factor of 5{6 in the 10% most central collisions. The suppression and its centrality dependence are compatible within uncertainties with those of charged pions. A comparison with the R-AA of non-prompt J/psi from B meson decays, measured by the CMS Collaboration, hints at a larger suppression of D mesons in the most central collisions.
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| 8. |
- Adam, J., et al.
(author)
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Inclusive, prompt and non-prompt J/psi production at mid-rapidity in Pb-Pb collisions at root S-NN=2.76 TeV
- 2015
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In: Journal of High Energy Physics. - 1029-8479. ; :7
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The transverse momentum (p(T)) dependence of the nuclear modification factor R-AA and the centrality dependence of the average transverse momentum for inclusive J/psi have been measured with ALICE for Pb-Pb collisions at root S-NN = 2.76TeV in the e(+)e(-) decay channel at mid-rapidity (vertical bar y vertical bar < 0.8). The is significantly smaller than the one observed for pp collisions at the same centre-of-mass energy. Consistently, an increase of RAA is observed towards low p(T). These observations might be indicative of a sizable contribution of charm quark coalescence to the J/psi production. Additionally, the fraction of non-prompt J/psi from beauty hadron decays, f(B), has been determined in the region 1.5 < p(T) < 10 GeV/c in three centrality intervals. No significant centrality dependence of fB is observed. Finally, the RAA of non-prompt J/psi is discussed and compared with model predictions. The nuclear modification in the region 4.5 < p(T) < 10 GeV/c is found to be stronger than predicted by most models.
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| 9. |
- Adam, J., et al.
(author)
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Centrality dependence of inclusive J/psi production in p-Pb collisions at root S-NN=5.02TeV
- 2015
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In: Journal of High Energy Physics. - 1029-8479. ; :11
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We present a measurement of inclusive J/psi production in p-Pb collisions at root S-NN = 5.02 TeV as a function of the centrality of the collision, as estimated from the energy deposited in the Zero Degree Calorimeters. The measurement is performed with the ALICE detector down to zero transverse momentum, p(T), in the backward (-4.46 < y(cms) < -2.96) and forward (2.03 < y(cms) < 3.53) rapidity intervals in the dimuon decay channel and in the mid-rapidity region (-1.37 < y(cms) < 0.43) in the dielectron decay channel. The backward and forward rapidity intervals correspond to the Pb-going and p-going direction, respectively. The p(T)-differential J/psi production cross section at backward and forward rapidity is measured for several centrality classes, together with the corresponding average p(T) and p(T)(2) values. The nuclear modification factor is presented as a function of centrality for the three rapidity intervals, and as a function of p(T) for several centrality classes at backward and forward rapidity. At mid-and forward rapidity, the J/psi yield is suppressed up to 40% compared to that in pp interactions scaled by the number of binary collisions. The degree of suppression increases towards central p-Pb collisions at forward rapidity, and with decreasing p(T) of the J/psi. At backward rapidity, the nuclear modification factor is compatible with unity within the total uncertainties, with an increasing trend from peripheral to central p-Pb collisions.
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| 10. |
- Adam, J., et al.
(author)
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Measurement of charm and beauty production at central rapidity versus charged-particle multiplicity in proton-proton collisions at root s=7 TeV
- 2015
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In: Journal of High Energy Physics. - 1029-8479. ; :9
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Prompt D meson and non-prompt J/psi yields are studied as a function of the multiplicity of charged particles produced in inelastic proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of root s = 7 TeV. The results are reported as a ratio between yields in a given multiplicity interval normalised to the multiplicity-integrated ones (relative yields). They are shown as a function of the multiplicity of charged particles normalised to the average value for inelastic collisions (relative charged-particle multiplicity). D-0, D+ and D*+ mesons are measured in five p(T) intervals from 1 GeV/c to 20 GeV/c and for |y| < 0.5 via their hadronic decays. The D-meson relative yield is found to increase with increasing charged-particle multiplicity. For events with multiplicity six times higher than the average multiplicity of inelastic collisions, a yield enhancement of a factor about 15 relative to the multiplicity-integrated yield in inelastic collisions is observed. The yield enhancement is independent of transverse momentum within the uncertainties of the measurement. The D-0-meson relative yield is also measured as a function of the relative multiplicity at forward pseudo-rapidity. The non-prompt J/psi, i.e. the B hadron, contribution to the inclusive J/psi production is measured in the di-electron decay channel at central rapidity. It is evaluated for p(T) > 1.3 GeV/c and |y| < 0.9, and extrapolated to p(T) > 0. The fraction of non-prompt J/psi the inclusive J/psi yields shows no dependence on the charged-particle multiplicity at central rapidity. Charm and beauty hadron relative yields exhibit a similar increase with increasing charged-particle multiplicity. The measurements are compared to PYTHIA 8, EPOS 3 and percolation calculations.
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| 11. |
- Adam, J., et al.
(author)
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Measurement of jet quenching with semi-inclusive hadron-jet distributions in central Pb-Pb collisions at root s(NN)=2.76 TeV
- 2015
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In: Journal of High Energy Physics. - 1029-8479. ; :9
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We report the measurement of a new observable of jet quenching in central Pb-Pb collisions at root s(NN) = 2.76 TeV, based on the semi-inclusive rate of charged jets recoiling from a high transverse momentum (high-p T) charged hadron trigger. Jets are measured using collinear-safe jet reconstruction with infrared cutoff for jet constituents of 0.15 GeV, for jet resolution parameters R = 0.2, 0.4 and 0.5. Underlying event background is corrected at the event-ensemble level, without imposing bias on the jet population. Recoil jet spectra are reported in the range 20 < p(T,jet)(ch) < 100 GeV. Reference distributions for pp collisions at root s = 2.76TeV are calculated using Monte Carlo and NLO pQCD methods, which are validated by comparing with measurements in pp collisions at root s = 7TeV. The recoil jet yield in central Pb-Pb collisions is found to be suppressed relative to that in pp collisions. No significant medium-induced broadening of the intra-jet energy profile is observed within 0.5 radians relative to the recoil jet axis. The angular distribution of the recoil jet yield relative to the trigger axis is found to be similar in central Pb-Pb and pp collisions, with no significant medium-induced acoplanarity observed. Large-angle jet deflection, which may provide a direct probe of the nature of the quasi-particles in hot QCD matter, is explored.
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| 12. |
- Adam, J, et al.
(author)
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Measurement of pion, kaon and proton production in proton-proton collisions at [Formula: see text] TeV.
- 2015
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In: European Physical Journal C. Particles and Fields. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1434-6044. ; 75:5
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The measurement of primary [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] production at mid-rapidity ([Formula: see text] 0.5) in proton-proton collisions at [Formula: see text][Formula: see text] 7 TeV performed with a large ion collider experiment at the large hadron collider (LHC) is reported. Particle identification is performed using the specific ionisation energy-loss and time-of-flight information, the ring-imaging Cherenkov technique and the kink-topology identification of weak decays of charged kaons. Transverse momentum spectra are measured from 0.1 up to 3 GeV/[Formula: see text] for pions, from 0.2 up to 6 GeV/[Formula: see text] for kaons and from 0.3 up to 6 GeV/[Formula: see text] for protons. The measured spectra and particle ratios are compared with quantum chromodynamics-inspired models, tuned to reproduce also the earlier measurements performed at the LHC. Furthermore, the integrated particle yields and ratios as well as the average transverse momenta are compared with results at lower collision energies.
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| 13. |
- Adam, J., et al.
(author)
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Search for weakly decaying (Lambda n)over-bar and Lambda Lambda exotic bound states in central Pb-Pb collisions at root S-NN=2.76 TeV
- 2016
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In: Physics Letters. Section B: Nuclear, Elementary Particle and High-Energy Physics. - : Elsevier BV. - 0370-2693. ; 752, s. 267-277
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We present results of a search for two hypothetical strange dibaryon states, i.e. the H-dibaryon and the possible (Lambda n) over bar bound state. The search is performed with the ALICE detector in central (0-10%) Pb-Pb collisions at root S-NN = 2.76 TeV, by invariant mass analysis in the decay modes (Lambda n) over bar (d) over bar pi(+) and H-dibaryon -> Lambda p pi(-). No evidence for these bound states is observed. Upper limits are determined at 99% confidence level for a wide range of lifetimes and for the full range of branching ratios. The results are compared to thermal, coalescence and hybrid UrQMD model expectations, which describe correctly the production of other loosely bound states, like the deuteron and the hypertriton. (C) 2015 CERN for the benefit of the ALICE Collaboration. Published by Elsevier B.V.
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| 14. |
- Adam, J., et al.
(author)
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Coherent psi (2S) photo-production in ultra-peripheral Pb-Pb collisions at root s(NN)=2.76TeV
- 2015
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In: Physics Letters. Section B: Nuclear, Elementary Particle and High-Energy Physics. - : Elsevier BV. - 0370-2693. ; 751, s. 358-370
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We have performed the first measurement of the coherent psi(2S) photo-production cross section in ultraperipheral Pb-Pb collisions at the LHC. This charmonium excited state is reconstructed via the psi(2S) -> l(+)l(-) and ->(2S) -> J/psi pi(+)pi(-) decays, where the J/psi decays into two leptons. The analysis is based on an event sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of about 22 mu b(-1). The cross section for coherent psi(2S) production in the rapidity interval -0.9 < y < 0.9is d sigma(coh)(psi(2S))/dy = 0.83 +/- 0.19 (stat+syst) mb. The psi(2S) to J/psi coherent cross section ratio is 0.34(-0.07)(+0.08)(stat+syst). The obtained results are compared to predictions from theoretical models. (C) 2015 CERN for the benefit of the ALICE Collaboration. Published by Elsevier B.V.
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| 15. |
- Adam, J., et al.
(author)
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Coherent rho(0) photoproduction in ultra-peripheral Pb-Pb collisions at root s(NN)=2.76 TeV
- 2015
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In: Journal of High Energy Physics. - 1029-8479. ; :9
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We report the first measurement at the LHC of coherent photoproduction of rho(0) mesons in ultra-peripheral Pb-Pb collisions. The invariant mass and transverse momentum distributions for rho(0) production are studied in the pi(+)pi(-) decay channel at mid-rapidity. The production cross section in the rapidity range vertical bar y vertical bar < 0.5 is found to be d sigma/dy = 425 +/- 10 (stat.) (+42)(-50) (sys.) mb. Coherent rho(0) production is studied with and without requirement of nuclear breakup, and the fractional yields for various breakup scenarios are presented. The results are compared with those from lower energies and with model predictions.
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| 16. |
- Adam, J., et al.
(author)
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Measurement of charged jet production cross sections and nuclear modification in p-Pb collisions at root s(NN)=5.02 TeV
- 2015
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In: Physics Letters. Section B: Nuclear, Elementary Particle and High-Energy Physics. - : Elsevier BV. - 0370-2693. ; 749, s. 68-81
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Charged jet production cross sections in p-Pb collisions at root s(NN) = 5.02 TeV measured with the ALICE detector at the LHC are presented. Using the anti-k(T) algorithm, jets have been reconstructed in the central rapidity region from charged particles with resolution parameters R = 0.2 and R = 0.4. The reconstructed jets have been corrected for detector effects and the underlying event background. To calculate the nuclear modification factor, R-pPb, of charged jets in p-Pb collisions, a pp reference was constructed by scaling previously measured charged jet spectra at root s = 7 TeV. In the transverse momentum range 20 <= p(T, chjet) <= 120 GeV/c, R-pPb is found to be consistent with unity, indicating the absence of strong nuclear matter effects on jet production. Major modifications to the radial jet structure are probed via the ratio of jet production cross sections reconstructed with the two different resolution parameters. This ratio is found to be similar to the measurement in pp collisions at root s = 7 TeV and to the expectations from PYTHIA pp simulations and NLO pQCD calculations at root s(NN) = 5.02 TeV. (C) 2015 CERN for the benefit of the ALICE Collaboration. Published by Elsevier B.V.
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| 17. |
- Adam, J., et al.
(author)
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Measurement of dijet k(T) in p-Pb collisions at root s(NN)=5.02 TeV
- 2015
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In: Physics Letters. Section B: Nuclear, Elementary Particle and High-Energy Physics. - : Elsevier BV. - 0370-2693. ; 746, s. 385-395
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- A measurement of dijet correlations in p-Pb collisions at root s(NN) = 5.02 TeV with the ALICE detector is presented. Jets are reconstructed from charged particles measured in the central tracking detectors and neutral energy deposited in the electromagnetic calorimeter. The transverse momentum of the full jet (clustered from charged and neutral constituents) and charged jet (clustered from charged particles only) is corrected event-by-event for the contribution of the underlying event, while corrections for underlying event fluctuations and finite detector resolution are applied on an inclusive basis. A projection of the dijet transverse momentum, k(Ty) = p(T,jet)(ch+ne) sin(Delta phi(dijet)) with Delta phi(dijet) the azimuthal angle between a full and charged jet and p(T,jet)(ch+ne) the transverse momentum of the full jet, is used to study nuclear matter effects in p-Pb collisions. This observable is sensitive to the acoplanarity of dijet production and its potential modificationin p-Pb collisions with respect to pp collisions. Measurements of the dijet k(Ty) as a function of the transverse momentum of the full and recoil charged jet, and the event multiplicity are presented. No significant modification of k(Ty) due to nuclear matter effects in p-Pb collisions with respect to the event multiplicity or a PYTHIA8 reference is observed. (C) 2015 CERN for the benefit of the ALICE Collaboration. Published by Elsevier B.V.
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| 18. |
- Adam, J., et al.
(author)
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Precision measurement of the mass difference between light nuclei and anti-nuclei
- 2015
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In: Nature Physics. - 1745-2473. ; 11:10, s. 120-811
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The measurement of the mass differences for systems bound by the strong force has reached a very high precision with protons and anti-protons(1,2). The extension of such measurement from (anti-)baryons to (anti-) nuclei allows one to probe any difference in the interactions between nucleons and anti-nucleons encoded in the (anti-) nuclei masses. This force is a remnant of the underlying strong interaction among quarks and gluons and can be described by effective theories(3), but cannot yet be directly derived from quantum chromodynamics. Here we report a measurement of the difference between the ratios of the mass and charge of deuterons (d) and anti-deuterons ((d) over bar), and He-3 and (3)(He) over bar nuclei carried out with the ALICE (A Large Ion Collider Experiment)(4) detector in Pb-Pb collisions at a centre-of-mass energy per nucleon pair of 2.76 TeV. Our direct measurement of the mass-over-charge differences confirms CPT invariance to an unprecedented precision in the sector of light nuclei(5,6). This fundamental symmetry of nature, which exchanges particles with anti-particles, implies that all physics laws are the same under the simultaneous reversal of charge(s) (charge conjugation C), reflection of spatial coordinates (parity transformation P) and time inversion (T).
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| 24. |
- Burstein, R., et al.
(author)
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Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017
- 2019
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In: Nature. - : Nature Publishing Group. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 574:7778, s. 353-358
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2—to end preventable child deaths by 2030—we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000–2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations. © 2019, The Author(s).
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| 34. |
- Veres, P., et al.
(author)
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Observation of inverse Compton emission from a long gamma-ray burst
- 2019
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In: Nature. - : NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 575:7783, s. 459-
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Long-duration gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) originate from ultra-relativistic jets launched from the collapsing cores of dying massive stars. They are characterized by an initial phase of bright and highly variable radiation in the kiloelectron volt-to-mega electronvoltband, which is probably produced within the jet and lasts from milliseconds to minutes, known as the prompt emission(1,2). Subsequently, the interaction of the jet with the surrounding medium generates shock waves that are responsible for the afterglow emission, which lasts from days to months and occurs over a broad energy range from the radio to the gigaelectronvolt bands(1-6). The afterglow emission is generally well explained as synchrotron radiation emitted by electrons accelerated by the external shock(7-9). Recently, intense long-lasting emission between 0.2 and 1 teraelectronvolts was observed from GRB 190114C(10,11). Here we report multifrequency observations of GRB 190114C, and study the evolution in time of the GRB emission across 17 orders of magnitude in energy, from 5 x 10(-6) to 10(12) electronvolts. We find that the broadband spectral energy distribution is double-peaked, with the teraelectronvolt emission constituting a distinct spectral component with power comparable to the synchrotron component. This component is associated with the afterglow and is satisfactorily explained by inverse Compton up-scattering of synchrotron photons by high-energy electrons. We find that the conditions required to account for the observed teraelectronvolt component are typical for GRBs, supporting the possibility that inverse Compton emission is commonly produced in GRBs.
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| 36. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(author)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 37. |
- Vedantham, H. K., et al.
(author)
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Lunar occultation of the diffuse radio sky : LOFAR measurements between 35 and 80 MHz
- 2015
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In: Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0035-8711 .- 1365-2966. ; 450, s. 2291-2305
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We present radio observations of the Moon between 35 and 80 MHz to demonstrate a novel technique of interferometrically measuring large-scale diffuse emission extending far beyond the primary beam (global signal) for the first time. In particular, we show that (i) the Moon appears as a negative-flux source at frequencies 35 < ν < 80 MHz since it is ‘colder’ than the diffuse Galactic background it occults, (ii) using the (negative) flux of the lunar disc, we can reconstruct the spectrum of the diffuse Galactic emission with the lunar thermal emission as a reference, and (iii) that reflected RFI (radio-frequency interference) is concentrated at the centre of the lunar disc due to specular nature of reflection, and can be independently measured. Our RFI measurements show that (i) Moon-based Cosmic Dawn experiments must design for an Earth-isolation of better than 80 dB to achieve an RFI temperature <1 mK, (ii) Moon-reflected RFI contributes to a dipole temperature less than 20 mK for Earth-based Cosmic Dawn experiments, (iii) man-made satellite-reflected RFI temperature exceeds 20 mK if the aggregate scattering cross-section of visible satellites exceeds 175 m2 at 800 km height, or 15 m2 at 400 km height. Currently, our diffuse background spectrum is limited by sidelobe confusion on short baselines (10–15 per cent level). Further refinement of our technique may yield constraints on the redshifted global 21 cm signal from Cosmic Dawn (40 > z > 12) and the Epoch of Reionization (12 > z > 5).
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| 38. |
- Dey, Lankeswar, et al.
(author)
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Authenticating the Presence of a Relativistic Massive Black Hole Binary in OJ 287 Using Its General Relativity Centenary Flare : Improved Orbital Parameters
- 2018
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In: Astrophysical Journal. - : American Astronomical Society. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 866:1
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Results from regular monitoring of relativistic compact binaries like PSR 1913+16 are consistent with the dominant (quadrupole) order emission of gravitational waves (GWs). We show that observations associated with the binary black hole (BBH) central engine of blazar OJ 287 demand the inclusion of gravitational radiation reaction effects beyond the quadrupolar order. It turns out that even the effects of certain hereditary contributions to GW emission are required to predict impact flare timings of OJ 287. We develop an approach that incorporates this effect into the BBH model for OJ 287. This allows us to demonstrate an excellent agreement between the observed impact flare timings and those predicted from ten orbital cycles of the BBH central engine model. The deduced rate of orbital period decay is nine orders of magnitude higher than the observed rate in PSR 1913+16, demonstrating again the relativistic nature of OJ 287's central engine. Finally, we argue that precise timing of the predicted 2019 impact flare should allow a test of the celebrated black hole no-hair theorem at the 10% level.
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| 39. |
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| 40. |
- Heald, G. H., et al.
(author)
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The LOFAR Multifrequency Snapshot Sky Survey (MSSS) : I. Survey description and first results
- 2015
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In: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 582, s. 1-22
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We present the Multifrequency Snapshot Sky Survey (MSSS), the first northern-sky Low Frequency Array (LOFAR) imaging survey. In this introductory paper, we first describe in detail the motivation and design of the survey. Compared to previous radio surveys, MSSS is exceptional due to its intrinsic multifrequency nature providing information about the spectral properties of the detected sources over more than two octaves (from 30 to 160 MHz). The broadband frequency coverage, together with the fast survey speed generated by LOFAR’s multibeaming capabilities, make MSSS the first survey of the sort anticipated to be carried out with the forthcoming Square Kilometre Array (SKA). Two of the sixteen frequency bands included in the survey were chosen to exactly overlap the frequency coverage of large-area Very Large Array (VLA) and Giant Metrewave Radio Telescope (GMRT) surveys at 74 MHz and 151 MHz respectively. The survey performance is illustrated within the MSSS Verification Field (MVF), a region of 100 square degrees centered at (α,δ)J2000 = (15h,69°). The MSSS results from the MVF are compared with previous radio survey catalogs. We assess the flux and astrometric uncertainties in the catalog, as well as the completeness and reliability considering our source finding strategy. We determine the 90% completeness levels within the MVF to be 100 mJy at 135 MHz with 108″ resolution, and 550 mJy at 50 MHz with 166″ resolution. Images and catalogs for the full survey, expected to contain 150 000–200 000 sources, will be released to a public web server. We outline the plans for the ongoing production of the final survey products, and the ultimate public release of images and source catalogs.
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| 41. |
- Willems, S. M., et al.
(author)
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Large-scale GWAS identifies multiple loci for hand grip strength providing biological insights into muscular fitness
- 2017
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In: Nature Communications. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2041-1723. ; 8
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Hand grip strength is a widely used proxy of muscular fitness, a marker of frailty, and predictor of a range of morbidities and all-cause mortality. To investigate the genetic determinants of variation in grip strength, we perform a large-scale genetic discovery analysis in a combined sample of 195,180 individuals and identify 16 loci associated with grip strength (P<5 × 10-8) in combined analyses. A number of these loci contain genes implicated in structure and function of skeletal muscle fibres (ACTG1), neuronal maintenance and signal transduction (PEX14, TGFA, SYT1), or monogenic syndromes with involvement of psychomotor impairment (PEX14, LRPPRC and KANSL1). Mendelian randomization analyses are consistent with a causal effect of higher genetically predicted grip strength on lower fracture risk. In conclusion, our findings provide new biological insight into the mechanistic underpinnings of grip strength and the causal role of muscular strength in age-related morbidities and mortality. © The Author(s) 2017.
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| 42. |
- Bryant, J. M., et al.
(author)
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Emergence and spread of a human-transmissible multidrug-resistant nontuberculous mycobacterium
- 2016
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In: Science. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 0036-8075 .- 1095-9203. ; 354:6313, s. 751-757
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Lung infections with Mycobacterium abscessus, a species of multidrug-resistant nontuberculous mycobacteria, are emerging as an important global threat to individuals with cystic fibrosis (CF), in whom M. abscessus accelerates inflammatory lung damage, leading to increased morbidity and mortality. Previously, M. abscessus was thought to be independently acquired by susceptible individuals from the environment. However, using whole-genome analysis of a global collection of clinical isolates, we show that the majority of M. abscessus infections are acquired through transmission, potentially via fomites and aerosols, of recently emerged dominant circulating clones that have spread globally. We demonstrate that these clones are associated with worse clinical outcomes, show increased virulence in cell-based and mouse infection models, and thus represent an urgent international infection challenge.
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| 43. |
- Sieberts, SK, et al.
(author)
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Crowdsourced assessment of common genetic contribution to predicting anti-TNF treatment response in rheumatoid arthritis
- 2016
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In: Nature communications. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2041-1723. ; 7, s. 12460-
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) affects millions world-wide. While anti-TNF treatment is widely used to reduce disease progression, treatment fails in ∼one-third of patients. No biomarker currently exists that identifies non-responders before treatment. A rigorous community-based assessment of the utility of SNP data for predicting anti-TNF treatment efficacy in RA patients was performed in the context of a DREAM Challenge (http://www.synapse.org/RA_Challenge). An open challenge framework enabled the comparative evaluation of predictions developed by 73 research groups using the most comprehensive available data and covering a wide range of state-of-the-art modelling methodologies. Despite a significant genetic heritability estimate of treatment non-response trait (h2=0.18, P value=0.02), no significant genetic contribution to prediction accuracy is observed. Results formally confirm the expectations of the rheumatology community that SNP information does not significantly improve predictive performance relative to standard clinical traits, thereby justifying a refocusing of future efforts on collection of other data.
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| 44. |
- Buitink, S., et al.
(author)
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A large light-mass component of cosmic rays at 1017–1017.5 electronvolts from radio observations
- 2016
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In: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 531:7592, s. 70-73
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Cosmic rays are the highest-energy particles found in nature. Measurements of the mass composition of cosmic rays with energies of 1017–1018 electronvolts are essential to understanding whether they have galactic or extragalactic sources. It has also been proposed that the astrophysical neutrino signal1 comes from accelerators capable of producing cosmic rays of these energies2. Cosmic rays initiate air showers—cascades of secondary particles in the atmosphere—and their masses can be inferred from measurements of the atmospheric depth of the shower maximum3 (Xmax; the depth of the air shower when it contains the most particles) or of the composition of shower particles reaching the ground4. Current measurements5 have either high uncertainty, or a low duty cycle and a high energy threshold. Radio detection of cosmic rays6, 7, 8 is a rapidly developing technique9 for determining Xmax (refs 10, 11) with a duty cycle of, in principle, nearly 100 per cent. The radiation is generated by the separation of relativistic electrons and positrons in the geomagnetic field and a negative charge excess in the shower front6, 12. Here we report radio measurements of Xmax with a mean uncertainty of 16 grams per square centimetre for air showers initiated by cosmic rays with energies of 1017–1017.5 electronvolts. This high resolution in Xmax enables us to determine the mass spectrum of the cosmic rays: we find a mixed composition, with a light-mass fraction (protons and helium nuclei) of about 80 per cent. Unless, contrary to current expectations, the extragalactic component of cosmic rays contributes substantially to the total flux below 1017.5 electronvolts, our measurements indicate the existence of an additional galactic component, to account for the light composition that we measured in the 1017–1017.5 electronvolt range.
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| 45. |
- Garsden, H., et al.
(author)
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LOFAR sparse image reconstruction
- 2015
-
In: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 575:A90
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Context. The LOw Frequency ARray (LOFAR) radio telescope is a giant digital phased array interferometer with multiple antennas distributed in Europe. It provides discrete sets of Fourier components of the sky brightness. Recovering the original brightness distribution with aperture synthesis forms an inverse problem that can be solved by various deconvolution and minimization methods.Aims. Recent papers have established a clear link between the discrete nature of radio interferometry measurement and the “compressed sensing” (CS) theory, which supports sparse reconstruction methods to form an image from the measured visibilities. Empowered by proximal theory, CS offers a sound framework for efficient global minimization and sparse data representation using fast algorithms. Combined with instrumental direction-dependent effects (DDE) in the scope of a real instrument, we developed and validated a new method based on this framework.Methods. We implemented a sparse reconstruction method in the standard LOFAR imaging tool and compared the photometric and resolution performance of this new imager with that of CLEAN-based methods (CLEAN and MS-CLEAN) with simulated and real LOFAR data.Results. We show that i) sparse reconstruction performs as well as CLEAN in recovering the flux of point sources; ii) performs much better on extended objects (the root mean square error is reduced by a factor of up to 10); and iii) provides a solution with an effective angular resolution 2−3 times better than the CLEAN images.Conclusions. Sparse recovery gives a correct photometry on high dynamic and wide-field images and improved realistic structures of extended sources (of simulated and real LOFAR datasets). This sparse reconstruction method is compatible with modern interferometric imagers that handle DDE corrections (A- and W-projections) required for current and future instruments such as LOFAR and SKA.
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| 46. |
- Patil, A. H., et al.
(author)
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Upper Limits on the 21cm Epoch of Reionization Power Spectrum from One Night with LOFAR
- 2017
-
In: Astrophysical Journal. - : American Astronomical Society. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 838:1
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We present the first limits on the Epoch of Reionization 21 cm H I power spectra, in the redshift range z = 7.910.6, using the Low-Frequency Array (LOFAR) High-Band Antenna (HBA). In total, 13.0 hr of data were used from observations centered on the North Celestial Pole. After subtraction of the sky model and the noise bias, we detect a non-zero Delta(2)(I)=(56 +/- 13 mK)(2) (1-sigma) excess variance and a best 2-sigma upper limit of Delta(2)(21) < (79.6 mK)(2) at k = 0.053 h cMpc(-1) in the range z = 9.610.6. The excess variance decreases when optimizing the smoothness of the direction- and frequency-dependent gain calibration, and with increasing the completeness of the sky model. It is likely caused by (i) residual side-lobe noise on calibration baselines, (ii) leverage due to nonlinear effects, (iii) noise and ionosphere-induced gain errors, or a combination thereof. Further analyses of the excess variance will be discussed in forthcoming publications.
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| 47. |
- Stewart, A. J., et al.
(author)
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LOFAR MSSS : detection of a low-frequency radio transient in 400 h of monitoring of the North Celestial Pole
- 2016
-
In: Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0035-8711 .- 1365-2966. ; 456:3, s. 2321-2342
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We present the results of a four-month campaign searching for low-frequency radio transients near the North Celestial Pole with the Low-Frequency Array (LOFAR), as part of the Multifrequency Snapshot Sky Survey (MSSS). The data were recorded between 2011 December and 2012 April and comprised 2149 11-min snapshots, each covering 175 deg2. We have found one convincing candidate astrophysical transient, with a duration of a few minutes and a flux density at 60 MHz of 15–25 Jy. The transient does not repeat and has no obvious optical or high-energy counterpart, as a result of which its nature is unclear. The detection of this event implies a transient rate at 60 MHz of 3.9−3.7+14.7×10−4" style="position: relative;" tabindex="0" id="MathJax-Element-1-Frame" class="MathJax">3.9+14.7−3.7×10−4 d−1 deg−2, and a transient surface density of 1.5 × 10−5 deg−2, at a 7.9-Jy limiting flux density and ∼10-min time-scale. The campaign data were also searched for transients at a range of other time-scales, from 0.5 to 297 min, which allowed us to place a range of limits on transient rates at 60 MHz as a function of observation duration.
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| 48. |
- Asad, K. M. B., et al.
(author)
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Polarization leakage in epoch of reionization windows - I. Low Frequency Array observations of the 3C196 field
- 2015
-
In: Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0035-8711 .- 1365-2966. ; 451:4, s. 3709-3727
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Detection of the 21-cm signal coming from the epoch of reionization (EoR) is challenging especially because, even after removing the foregrounds, the residual Stokes I maps contain leakage from polarized emission that can mimic the signal. Here, we discuss the instrumental polarization of Low Frequency Array (LOFAR) and present realistic simulations of the leakages between Stokes parameters. From the LOFAR observations of polarized emission in the 3C196 field, we have quantified the level of polarization leakage caused by the nominal model beam of LOFAR, and compared it with the EoR signal using power spectrum analysis. We found that at 134-166 MHz, within the central 4A degrees of the field the (Q, U) -> I leakage power is lower than the EoR signal at k < 0.3 Mpc(-1). The leakage was found to be localized around a Faraday depth of 0, and the rms of the leakage as a fraction of the rms of the polarized emission was shown to vary between 0.2 and 0.3 per cent, both of which could be utilized in the removal of leakage. Moreover, we could define an 'EoR window' in terms of the polarization leakage in the cylindrical power spectrum above the point spread function (PSF)-induced wedge and below k(ayen) similar to 0.5 Mpc(-1), and the window extended up to k(ayen) similar to 1 Mpc(-1) at all k(aSyen) when 70 per cent of the leakage had been removed. These LOFAR results show that even a modest polarimetric calibration over a field of view of a parts per thousand(2) 4A degrees in the future arrays like Square Kilometre Array will ensure that the polarization leakage remains well below the expected EoR signal at the scales of 0.02-1 Mpc(-1).
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| 49. |
- Ciardi, B., et al.
(author)
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Simulating the 21 cm forest detectable with LOFAR and SKA in the spectra of high-z GRBs
- 2015
-
In: Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0035-8711 .- 1365-2966. ; 453:1, s. 101-105
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We investigate the feasibility of detecting 21 cm absorption features in the afterglow spectra of high redshift long Gamma Ray Bursts (GRBs). This is done employing simulations of cosmic reionization, together with estimates of the GRB radio afterglow flux and the instrumental characteristics of the LOw Frequency ARray (LOFAR). We find that absorption features could be marginally (with a S/N larger than a few) detected by LOFAR at z greater than or similar to 7 if the GRB is a highly energetic event originating from Pop III stars, while the detection would be easier if the noise were reduced by one order of magnitude, i.e. similar to what is expected for the first phase of the Square Kilometre Array (SKA1-low). On the other hand, more standard GRBs are too dim to be detected even with ten times the sensitivity of SKA1-low, and only in the most optimistic case can a S/N larger than a few be reached at z greater than or similar to 9.
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| 50. |
- Pilia, M., et al.
(author)
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Wide-band, low-frequency pulse profiles of 100 radio pulsars with LOFAR
- 2016
-
In: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 586
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Context. LOFAR offers the unique capability of observing pulsars across the 10−240 MHz frequency range with a fractional bandwidth of roughly 50%. This spectral range is well suited for studying the frequency evolution of pulse profile morphology caused by both intrinsic and extrinsic effects such as changing emission altitude in the pulsar magnetosphere or scatter broadening by the interstellar medium, respectively.Aims. The magnitude of most of these effects increases rapidly towards low frequencies. LOFAR can thus address a number of open questions about the nature of radio pulsar emission and its propagation through the interstellar medium.Methods. We present the average pulse profiles of 100 pulsars observed in the two LOFAR frequency bands: high band (120–167 MHz, 100 profiles) and low band (15–62 MHz, 26 profiles). We compare them with Westerbork Synthesis Radio Telescope (WSRT) and Lovell Telescope observations at higher frequencies (350 and 1400 MHz) to study the profile evolution. The profiles were aligned in absolute phase by folding with a new set of timing solutions from the Lovell Telescope, which we present along with precise dispersion measures obtained with LOFAR.Results. We find that the profile evolution with decreasing radio frequency does not follow a specific trend; depending on the geometry of the pulsar, new components can enter into or be hidden from view. Nonetheless, in general our observations confirm the widening of pulsar profiles at low frequencies, as expected from radius-to-frequency mapping or birefringence theories.
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